"Perfect on paper," Street said. "But in practice, it's the worst idea I've ever heard."

[ABC]

Rethinking bullpen roles: Will teams buy in? Analytics have teams considering changes to traditional usage

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/167718896/analytics-have-teams-considering-bullpen-roles

 

[Blarg]

"Perct on paper," Street said. "But in practice, it's the worst idea I've ever heard."

Agreed

Edited March 17, 2016 by notti

[ABC]

Why is ninth inning guy getting paid so much more than the rest of the BP? If anyone thinks a lockdown BP is important, I'd recommend paying less for the 9th inning guy and spending equally for the 7th, 8th and 9th inning BP pitchers.

[Angelsjunky]

I think there's a middle ground - still having your tradition bullpen roles of mop-up, LOOGY, set-up, closer, but I could see also adding another role: your go-to guy when the situation is dire. Sort of like a flexible closer. Usually the set-up man is the second best reliever, but maybe the "go-to guy" should be the second best, or even the best.

[Blarg]

Rotation of arms is necessary so to add that specialty "go to guy" you need to pull a position player off the roster. Again, paper perfect but impractical in the real world.

Edited March 17, 2016 by notti

[laagamer]

I've said it on this forum before.

Why teams bring in their best relievers with nobody on in the 9th baffles me. I want my best reliever in the 7th with a runner on 2B and nobody out.

I agree wholeheartedly with this strategy.

[Guest]

Why is ninth inning guy getting paid so much more than the rest of the BP? If anyone thinks a lockdown BP is important, I'd recommend paying less for the 9th inning guy and spending equally for the 7th, 8th and 9th inning BP pitchers.

You must have missed the Fuentes/Frieri eras

[ABC]

I don't see what they have to do with this.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Why is ninth inning guy getting paid so much more than the rest of the BP? If anyone thinks a lockdown BP is important, I'd recommend paying less for the 9th inning guy and spending equally for the 7th, 8th and 9th inning BP pitchers.

ive always felt this way. Without shields how many krod saves would there be? Whos to say the situation in the 9th is more important than the 8th, or 7th even?

The 8th inning might see no outs, 2 on, meat of the order coming up. Hoe 8th inning guy gets them out of it. 9th inning 1-2-3 through the back end of the order...but the save is still more sexy than the hold.

[Dick B Back]

ive always felt this way. Without shields how many krod saves would there be? Whos to say the situation in the 9th is more important than the 8th, or 7th even?

Or the 6th if Santiago or Wilson is the starter.

Edited March 17, 2016 by Dick B Back

[Blarg]

As Botchy said, you really never know which will be the highest leverage inning until the game is over.

Edited March 17, 2016 by notti

[Angel Oracle]

Have the normal closer, two setup men, two front end short innings men, one long innings guy, and the one who's flexible to come in at any time from the 6th to 8th innings for pressure spots (like the closer in the 9th)?

 

One problem though is that there could be a difficult spot in multiple innings before the 9th. 

[Blarg]

That's 8 relievers.

[Angel Oracle]

I counted 7 (1+2+2+1+1), try again.

[aznhockeyguy]

I've said it on this forum before.

Why teams bring in their best relievers with nobody on in the 9th baffles me. I want my best reliever in the 7th with a runner on 2B and nobody out.

I agree wholeheartedly with this strategy.

I've always said this as well.  The save is probably the most overrated stat in baseball, much like RBI.

[Blarg]

Up until a blown save or a man left on base.

[Erstad Grit]

To me this is a great example of the limits of analytics. It's impossible for a stat to measure something like the mental pressure of the  9th inning and the psychological ability of moving on from a blown save. That's why closers make more money. 

[arch stanton]

Unless you have a pretty good idea of when you plan to use a given reliever you'll probably blow out a few arms getting them up and down everyday. It still seems like a good idea to me to shorten game in which you have a lead by giving your best relievers a clean inning to work with. Now you can concentrate on using specialists to get the high leverage out in the 6th or 7th and grooming replacements on the days you have to rest the studs.

[Docwaukee]

Leverage isn't as cut and dry as you'd think.  

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml

 

Several of them are quite surprising and not totally inuitive.  

 

A few examples of leverage index in certain situations:

 

7th inning, home team up by 1.  0 outs

men on 1st and 2nd:  Li 3.4

next pitch is a pass ball and the runners advance to 2nd and 3rd.  the Li becomes 2.5. 

 

Why?  because Li by it's very nature is dependent on win/run expectancy and the delta between potential outcomes.  Weird right?

 

The other thing to remember is that because of the above, Li increases by inning.  

 

ex - if the score were still the home team up by 1 run, then the Li when Huston Street walks to the mound with no outs in the top of the 9th is 2.9.  If a runner reaches 1st with no outs, it jumps to 4.6.  

 

if a team is tied or has the lead by 3 runs or less, there are 96 different possible leverage situations.    

 

Here is another one - If Street walks in to a one run lead at home, his Li is 2.9 (as mentioned), but if he's on the road, his Li is 3.6.  Whereas if it were merely the 7th inning on the road, 1st and 2nd with 0 out, the leverage for any reliever walking into that is 3.5.  

 

Would you bring in your best reliever to put out that fire in the 7th?  Because if you did and maintained that lead, your second best guy would be walking into even higher leverage in the 9th

 

Also, take a look at the portion of the chart that show leverage when you are down by a run or more.  There are exactly 0 high leverage possibilities in those situations.  

 

Lets us Salas as an example.  He comes in to a clean inning in the 7th, at home, down by a run.  His leverage is 1.0.  He comes in in the 6th with the team up by 4 runs and a runner on 1st, and his Li is 1.2.  

 

Granted, all situations need to be addressed relative to context.  Street facing the #2, 3, 4 batters with a runner on in the 8th is probably more important than him facing 7, 8, and 9 with no outs in the 9th, but it's not what you think it is most of the time.  

 

While it's important to navigate high leverage situations, the ultimate goal is to keep yourself out of them.   

[Lou]

doc, if you weren't married...

[Docwaukee]

doc, if you weren't married...

my wife says that to me all the time but in a much different context.   

[Lou]

my wife says that to me all the time but in a much different context.

damn, I was ready with a response but I just can't bring myself to talk about wives (or mothers)

[Stradling]

Doc makes me feel bad about myself.

[Stradling]

Unless you are blessed to have a guy like Shields who could be a closer you have to hold onto your best pitcher until last. Imagine if we used Street in the 7th because Santiago got into trouble. Then Smith in the 8th. We would all be pumped when Salas came in to close it in the 9th. You all hate Scioscia now, wait till he does that. When it comes to bullpen management I'm more bothered by bringing in your closer after your eighth inning guy throws a 6 pitch 8th inning and the team is up 2-3 runs. Let's the set up guy get the last three outs. In the Angels case we play so many close games I would probably never pitch Street to start the 9th if we had a 3 run lead.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Bad example strad. We get pissed when salas comes in in any inning.