Weaver vs Skaggs

[Blarg]

If it comes down to Weaver vs. Skaggs, out of respect for Weav, I'd give him April and nothing else. If he can't show in ST, plus three starts early in the year that he has something left in the tank and can be effective, then I'd make a drastic move.

We have too much pitching depth to justify rolling out a 4.50 ERA. Skaggs is looking to make good on the promise he showed as a top prospect and is still just 24. Shoe is better than what we saw last year. Tropeano is better than most expect.

 

Tyler Skaggs career ERA 4.72.

[zenmaster]

Tyler Skaggs career ERA 4.72.

Albert Pujols career batting average .312

Edited February 17, 2016 by zenmaster

[Angel Oracle]

Heck, Pujols' 2015 OBP didn't even reach his career BA.

[Blarg]

Albert Pujols career batting average .312

Are you saying Skaggs could get worse?

[Blarg]

While I don't know disappointment is the right word, I tend to agree with this -- Heaney's 2015 was nearly identical to Skaggs 2014 save for ERA, it might be wise to tone down expectations. Skaggs FWIW is a guy I'm actually excited about, TJ and all. He's one of the few real breakout candidates on the team.

This is the difference between lighting and the lightening bug. Skaggs had a superior defense, offense and bullpen to support him and yet gave up a considerable amount of more runs. So all things were not equal when you pull a few stats out of context and say these two were the same looking flash of lightening.

[Second Base]

This is the difference between lighting and the lightening bug. Skaggs had a superior defense, offense and bullpen to support him and yet gave up a considerable amount of more runs. So all things were not equal when you pull a few stats out of context and say these two were the same looking flash of lightening.

Skaggs was 22 years old, saw his first extended look in the majors, pitched better than his ERA and was trending upward before injury. He was the best LHP prospect for a couple years and still has the upside to make good on all of it.

But sure, let's write off a 24 year old kid that just happened to have TJ surgery. That's really smart.

[Inside Pitch]

Tyler Skaggs career ERA 4.72.

 

Through age 22....   His peripherals profile much better than that.

[Docwaukee]

I think we'll know pretty quickly what they are gonna do with him.  If he's sitting around 83/84 in spring, he'll start the year on the DL and spend some extra time ramping up.   

 

A couple important numbers for Jered from last year

1st time through the batting order, his sOPS+ was 87.  ie 13% better than league average

2nd time through the batting order, his sOPS+ was 130.  ie 30% below average.  

 

He was more successful pitching to Perez.  So that could help as well.  

 

I really do think he starts the season on the DL and Shoemaker is in the rotation barring injury.  Skaggs will be in AAA with a innings limit to get his arm ramped up.  There is no chance he's going 200 innings this year.  

 

Here is what has to happen

 

Richards of 2014 shows up

Heaney misses bats at a rate closer to his minor league numbers (8.9 SO9)

Wilson is solid above average

Santiago pitches a full season - mentally

One of Weaver, Skaggs, Tropeano or Shoemaker or a combination of them pitch like a #3/4 combined.  

 

I agree that Heaney could easily get bit by a high BABIP if he doesn't start missing more bats.  

[VariousCrap]

It would be amazing if Weaver's velocity actually went up 2-3 mph, but if it drops again this year, he is in huge trouble.

[Troll Daddy]

I am anxiously awaiting Troll Daddy's take.

Weaver ended the season with the best pitching performance of the starters in Texas.

You happy now

[Inside Pitch]

This is the difference between lighting and the lightening bug. Skaggs had a superior defense, offense and bullpen to support him and yet gave up a considerable amount of more runs. So all things were not equal when you pull a few stats out of context and say these two were the same looking flash of lightening.

 

This is the difference between having a clue and having an opinion.

 

You claim the defense was better -- only the the defensive efficiency was exactly the same in both seasons at .715 and it ranked more prominently in 2015 -- Iannetta even learned how to frame his pitches..   You claim Skaggs had the better bullpen yet his strand rates on inherited runners was lower than Heaney's -- probably because the bulk of his pitching came before the bullpen was fixed.  All but three of his starts came in the first half when the bullpen put together a WAR of -0.1 and were the fourth worst bullpen in MLB .vs the second half where they put up a WAR of 3.9 and were the best bullpen in MLB.  You claim he had the better offense but runs scored have no impact whatsoever on a pitcher's peripherals -- in fact the argument is often made that pitchers will allow more baserunners/runs when pitching with a bigger lead than without one -- let's call this the Jack Morris excuse..   But let's pretend more offense helped a pitcher.....  Heaney got better run support in 2015 than Skaggs got in 2014.   Lastly, FIP attempts to remove the defense, the parks, and everything else from the equation .. it tries to focus solely on the things a pitcher can impact without outside help.  Skaggs 2014 FIP was 3.55.  Heaney's 2015 FIP was 3.72.   Basically everything you said is opinion and minus the offense being better, wrong..

 

Next time, Instead of trying to chide me for pulling "stats out of context" you should actually look at the stats.   BTW -- keep in mind that I was the guy pointing to those peripherals when the usual blowhards were dismissing Heaney based on his ERA in SLC...   I'm not comping Heaney to Skaggs to make Haney look worse, I'm saying the people focusing on ERA when looking at Skaggs are making a mistake.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

This is the difference between having a clue and having an opinion.

You claim the defense was better -- only the the defensive efficiency was exactly the same in both seasons at .715 and it ranked more prominently in 2015 -- Iannetta even learned how to frame his pitches.. You claim Skaggs had the better bullpen -- yet his strand rates on inherited runners was lower than Heaney's -- probably because the bulk of his pitching came before the bullpen was fixed. All but three of his starts came in the first half when the bullpen put together a WAR of -0.1 and were the fourth worst bullpen in MLB .vs the second half where they put up a WAR of 3.9 and were the best bullpen in MLB. You claim he had the better offense but, runs scored have no impact whatsoever on a pitcher's peripherals -- in fact the argument is often made that pitchers will allow more baserunners/runs when pitching with a bigger lead than without one -- let's call this the Jack Morris excuse.. Lastly, FIP attempts to remove the defense, the parks parks, and everything else from the equation and tries to focus solely on the things a pitcher can impact without outside help. Skaggs 2014 FIP was 3.55. Heaney's 2015 FIP was 3.72. Basically everything you said is opinion and minus the offense being better, wrong..

Next time, Instead of trying to chide me for pulling "stats out of context" you should actually look at the stats. BTW -- keep in mind that I was the guy pointing to those peripherals when the usual blowhards were dismissing Heaney based on his ERA in SLC... I'm not comping Heaney to Skaggs to make Haney look worse, I'm saying the people focusing on ERA when looking at Skaggs are making a mistake.

Bravo!!!

[Redondo]

 

A couple important numbers for Jered from last year

1st time through the batting order, his sOPS+ was 87.  ie 13% better than league average

2nd time through the batting order, his sOPS+ was 130.  ie 30% below average.  

 

 

It looks like he is somewhat effective the first time through the order. Would it make sense to move him to the bullpen for long relief?

[Angel Oracle]

Weave might need to go to the pen by June, if that continues.

[totdprods]

I wonder if perhaps a reason we didn't do any major pen upgrades and held onto all starters so far is to perhaps roll out a pitching staff with two of Santiago, Shoe, Skaggs or even Rasmus and Tropeano in the pen, and actually try to balance it in a way where Weaver pitches mostly - MOSTLY - at home.

It'd be too taxing either for the pen or for roster flexibility to have a strict plan, but as we sort of saw a couple years ago when we had Rasmus/bullpen every 5th day, there's a little precedent to toy with an idea like this given how stark Weaver is home/away, his awareness of how poorly he performed, and the number of SP arms we have who could give us multiple arms in the pen capable of pitching multiple innings.

Keep Weaver on an extremely short leash on road games and have a number of arms who can go long, or skip his start entirely, perhaps using him as the emergency long arm between starts.

Richards, Wilson, Heaney, whomever wins # 4, and then instead of a true #5 cycle Weaver and two other SPs in the pen between the roles.

Edited February 17, 2016 by totdprods

[greginpsca]

Also, I don't see the reason for limiting Tyler. We have enough evidence to back up that it doesn't take a pitcher 12 months to recover from TJ. It takes 12 months to throw again, but to fully regain velocity, snap on breaking balls and feel for a change up, it's more like 16.

By the time the season starts, Skaggs will be 18 months removed from surgery. As far as I'm concerned concerned, he's already been handled with kiddy gloves. He's ready to roll and I wouldn't hesitate to start him over both Weaver and Santiago.

I believe he has been in a throwing regimen for about 6 months now. No reported setbacks. He should be ready to go. That is not to say his innings shouldn't be monitored.

[greginpsca]

In essence, here's what I'm anticipating

Richards - 30+ starts and a 3.25 ERA

Heaney - 30+ starts and a 3.50 ERA

Weaver - 15 starts and a 4.50 ERA before coming down with a mystery illness that puts him out until the last of September when he gets his victory lap ( a couple starts).

Wilson - 15 starts before being traded and a 3.50 ERA.

Santiago - 15 starts and a 4.25 ERA before being traded.

Shoemaker - 10 starts and a 4.00 ERA

Tropeano - 12 starts and a 3.50 ERA

Skaggs - 8 starts and 4.00 ERA.

Smith - 3 starts and a 5 ERA.

Basically I see us being within a game or two of .500 and 5 games at the trade deadline. We'll trade Wilson, Santiago, Escobar, Nava, Kubitza and Joe Smith for prospects. We'll finish 4th in the West and enter the winter with a protected pick, 40 million in payroll relief and an owner unwilling to spend any of it as he gears up to sell the team.

Without a stadium deal in place, i don't see Arte getting the full value for the team if he sells it.

[LAAFANofLA]

Skaggs has been throwing the ball around for a while. Hopefully he gets a spot in the rotation ASAP.

[Homebrewer]

Skaggs was chomping at the bit to pitch at the end of last season.

They told him no way pal...

He should be locked and loaded when the season starts. I don't see any way he doesn't get a spot in the rotation.

 

[Angel Oracle]

What is the latest with Rasmus?

Is he ready to pitch solid ball out of the pen all season?

Or is his arm still a question mark after the health issues in 2015?

 

Can Shoe make the transition to the pen with his filthy splitter (think Uehara)?

 

We need anyone and everyone to step up, otherwise we are counting on Tossed Salad, Al Al, Bedrock the vast Jr., and Mo-runs-in to pitch a lot of critical innings.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Angel Oracle