Gordon or Zobrist?

[QuinlansMinion]

If you can only sign one big money free agent and those are the two you can choose from I would take Gordon. I know he had an injury this year, but don't know whether or not he has an injury history. Imagine the coin this guy would make with his numbers if he would have been able to stick at 3rd base. I don't remember defense being his issue.

Id rather sign Greinke than throw money at a position player, if we can only have one or the other.

[Second Base]

I feel completely safe rolling with Kubitza at 3B next year.  If the Angels give him a chance over Cowart, I think there'll be a ton of AW member eating crow.  When I watch Kubitza, I see a younger Daniel Murphy, who is set to make a boat-load of cash. 

 

All Kubitza needs is a chance.  He's grown into a good defensive 3B, he's left handed, has VERY good gap power, can run, he's young and inexpensive.  He's the answer at 3B.  I honestly think he'll outperform David Freese over the next 3 years. 

[Stradling]

I guess the way I see it Scotty is I would rather start by giving the sure thing out there. Of all of our options there is only one sure thing, I am referring to Cowart. We don't know what he will give us offensively, but we certainly know he will bring it with the glove. I think he would be a 2 dWAR type of player minimum. I know this is a team that struggles offensively, but how long have we trotted out a defensively liability at third?

[Second Base]

I guess the way I see it Scotty is I would rather start by giving the sure thing out there. Of all of our options there is only one sure thing, I am referring to Cowart. We don't know what he will give us offensively, but we certainly know he will bring it with the glove. I think he would be a 2 dWAR type of player minimum. I know this is a team that struggles offensively, but how long have we trotted out a defensively liability at third?

 

I never really considered Freese a liability at third base, did you?  I always saw him as merely adequate, not good or even average, but passable.  Cowart is a GREAT defensive 3B, rivaled by few, but I'm fairly confident he offers nothing with the bat, at least not yet anyway.  Kubitza's a good defensive 3B, better than Freese, not as good as Cowart.  But Kubitza's bat, I feel will be better than both Freese and Cowart's. 

[Stradling]

I felt Freese would make the routine play and that was about it. He wasn't Trumbo bad but I felt both Callaspo and Figgins were much better defensively and they were both only about average.

[Hollyw00d]

I feel completely safe rolling with Kubitza at 3B next year. If the Angels give him a chance over Cowart, I think there'll be a ton of AW member eating crow. When I watch Kubitza, I see a younger Daniel Murphy, who is set to make a boat-load of cash.

All Kubitza needs is a chance. He's grown into a good defensive 3B, he's left handed, has VERY good gap power, can run, he's young and inexpensive. He's the answer at 3B. I honestly think he'll outperform David Freese over the next 3 years.

Kubitza really needs to step up his production if he wants to be the answer. Cowart didn't look terrible, I thought. Either way, there's no clue what you're getting out of those guys next year

[Stradling]

Exactly they are both unknown offensively. I like that Cowart after his struggles the first week played a bit better and he seemed to put together good at bats and worked the count a bit.

[marcosantinia12]

The Angels were a 98 win team just one year from now. They had holes and missed the playoffs by one game. I agree with what you're saying, but they aren't exactly going to the Phillies either.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

They not only had "holes" they had debilitating in-house issues that indicate an organization with dysfunction at multiple levels, especially the top levels.

Not exactly a warm and inviting situation for an outsider considering a move.

I'd say the Angels aren't going to be a top choice for top FA players who can pick and choose where they would like to play.

OK, that makes more sense. Can't argue that, but we'll see how much of an impact it makes. I personally don't think that will make or brake a potential free agent pick up , but that's just me. Too many other factors that make Anaheim intriguing. Edited November 3, 2015 by marcosantinia12

[NorCal Halo]

How about this free-agent 2B?

31 yrs

Career: .293/.333/.423

2015: .295/.336/.409

and has a career 990 Fielding %

 

 

Gordon:
31 yrs
Career: .269/.348/.435 ... 112 OPS+ ...  29.7 WAR

2015:    .271/.377/.432 ... 120 OPS+ ...  2.8 WAR
Younger
Elite Defense
Draft pick attached

Zobrist:

34 yrs
Career: .265/.355/.431 ... 117 OPS+ ...   36.8 WAR (1 more season)

2015:    .276/.359/.450 ... 120 OPS+ ...  2.1 WAR

Elite Versatility (Utility) player

[Second Base]

Exactly they are both unknown offensively. I like that Cowart after his struggles the first week played a bit better and he seemed to put together good at bats and worked the count a bit.

You have to take a chance on these kids sometime. You want to spend money or sacrifice value for someone you know is good, meanwhile there's a reasonably good chance we already have a good 3B.

On the same note, most are willingly accepting replacement level production at 2B, while complaining about 3B and LF despite the fact that our 3B and current LF are both better than the 2B.

I'd more willingly spend money on a new 2B or LF than new 3B. That I'd t radical thinking either, that's common sense.

[SoWhat]

Alex Gordon. I truly believe he's one of the few guys that'll be worth every penny of the contract he receives. The guy has an outstanding work ethic and has shown no signs of decline. 

 

Career:

 

.269/.348/.435 

BB%: 9.0%

K%: 20.8%

ISO: .166

LD%: 21.4%

Hard Hit %: 31.4% 

 

2015:

 

.271/.377/.432

BB%: 11.6% 

K%: 21.8%

ISO: .161

LD:  24.8%

Hard Hit %: 33.3%

 

 

 

Here's an article on his work ethic, which is pretty damn good. 

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article754018.html

 

 

 

 

[marcosantinia12]

How about this free-agent 2B?

31 yrs

Career: .293/.333/.423

2015: .295/.336/.409

and has a career 990 Fielding %

 

 

Gordon:

31 yrs

Career: .269/.348/.435 ... 112 OPS+ ...  29.7 WAR

2015:    .271/.377/.432 ... 120 OPS+ ...  2.8 WAR

Younger

Elite Defense

Draft pick attached

Zobrist:

34 yrs

Career: .265/.355/.431 ... 117 OPS+ ...   36.8 WAR (1 more season)

2015:    .276/.359/.450 ... 120 OPS+ ...  2.1 WAR

Elite Versatility (Utility) player

Wow, Kendrick's numbers definitely caught me by surprise. Admittedly, I had to do a little bit of looking up to know who you were talking about. Ironically, Howie makes too much sense. In retrospect, I think he was misused hitting in the middle of the order in 2014. He would have had the 2nd highest obp on the team this year at .336, something that would have been very useful in front of Trout. 

Honestly, I didn't give the idea of bringing Howie back much thought but definitely open to it after looking at his stats. 

[Second Base]

I think if the Angels are looking at staying under the Luxury Tax line, Howie Kendrick would be a good move.  I'd also sign Denard Span for LF and leadoff and ink Darren O'Day and suddenly the Angels look dangerous again. 

 

1. LF Span

2. RF Calhoun

3. CF Trout

4. DH Pujols

5. 2B Kendrick

6. 1B Cron

 

That goes from a bottom three offense to at least middle of the pack.  Then if have the late innings line up as Street, Smith, O'Day, Gott/Morin, we'd  only need to ask our pitchers to go 5 innings at a time, which in the case of Santiago, Weaver and Wilson, is a very good thing. 

 

If you figure Kendrick goes for 11 million a year, Span goes for 12 million and O'Day gets 7 million, that's 30 million total.  If we cut Murphy loose, cut Salas andtrade either Santiago or CJ, that 30 million becomes easily affordable, and probably goes a lot further than spending 25 million on guys like Heyward, Upton or Cespedes (good as they are). 

[Angel Oracle]

Could Kubitza play 2B at AAA to start 2016 and then at some point take over 2B here?

Cowart at 3B and Kubitza at 2B = leaving LF and the pen as the two key areas to fix.

[Angel Oracle]

Kendrick actually turns 33 in July 2016, granted still 2 years younger than Zobrist.

[ettin]

If the Angels want to have consistent team production they cannot start off the year with inexperienced players at C, 2B, 3B, and LF. In fact I'd probably say they can't afford to have any inexperienced players at any position but if we are limited by the Luxury Tax threshold then going young will be a risk that can't be avoided.

This is a major reason why the Angels will very probably blow past the Luxury Tax this year. If they really want to compete you simply can't live with the fluctuations in performance that a young player/prospect usually brings to the table in their first few years in the League, especially players who don't have a consistent history down in the Minors.

Also if we are constrained by the Luxury Tax it will NOT be easy to make payroll room and leave any money leftover for the Trade Deadline much less to purchase free agents. At best we'd only be able to bring one mid-tier or two lower-tier free agents aboard. To be honest if Arte is tight we might as well roll the dice on our prospects rather than wasting money on one or more mid or lower tier free agents that will only improve our overall team performance incrementally.

If Arte is sticking to his words about "going over the Luxury Tax for the right player" then the focus is pretty much exclusively on Jason Heyward. It might be on David Price or Justin Upton too. Anyone else is probably not in the Angels realm of thinking if they don't get at least one of those top 3 in my humble opinion.

As I'll discuss later in the Primer the Angels need to go all-in financially this season. Otherwise they will be forced to trade away players (think Wilson, Santiago, Smith, Aybar, and Salas as probables) to free up dollars but by doing so they'll create more holes which may or may not be filled internally. Even if you fill the holes internally you have now compromised the team depth charts as well creating a situation where one or two injuries could seriously impact the team.

Normally I am not a fan of free agency but this year it is, in my mind, an absolute necessary evil and we should embrace it fully. By doing so we'll not only bring in impact players to improve total team performance we will also be able to have some decent depth if we do it right. We should also consider a couple of key trades, if we can pull them off, to acquire one or two additional quality players.

Edited November 3, 2015 by ettin

[Angel Oracle]

We could get away with second year man Perez behind the plate.  Bengie won a ring here in his 3rd season.

And Cowart/Kubitza might work at 3B.

 

But we do need a true experienced LF and 2B, and an additional experienced SOLID pen arm. 

[Second Base]

I dunno Ettin, it just seems like the big free agent splashes don't work. The Tigers, Angels, Mariners and Yankees are all proof. Are the Angels really going to do the same thing they've done in the past?

They need sustainable success and that comes from fiscal responsibility and prospect development, as the Mets and Royals have shown us.

I could see one big signing and an inconsequential one after that, or perhaps three medium sized signings, like Kendrick, Span and O'Day.

[ettin]

I dunno Ettin, it just seems like the big free agent splashes don't work. The Tigers, Angels, Mariners and Yankees are all proof. Are the Angels really going to do the same thing they've done in the past?

They need sustainable success and that comes from fiscal responsibility and prospect development, as the Mets and Royals have shown us.

I could see one big signing and an inconsequential one after that, or perhaps three medium sized signings, like Kendrick, Span and O'Day.

Scotty if they are going to go the route for sustainable success that you are speaking about right now they might as well sell extremely low on Trout because even wasting one of his years is a crime.

By the way, by spending big this offseason, they will set themselves up for sustainable success over the next five years by bringing in someone like Heyward plus others creating not only greater total team production but also allowing them to keep some of their key prospects as team depth.

Every decision the Angels make this offseason should be based around maximizing every single one of Mike Trout's controllable seasons. If they aren't trying to do that they should throw in the towel.

In regard to your statement about free agents Jason Heyward is an exception to the rule. Generally I don't like free agency but not only is it a necessary evil it is a mandatory evil this year.

Edited November 3, 2015 by ettin

[JE Cromet]

What the Angels need at LF is a good defensive, speedy player who can lead-off. Gordon is 31 YOA (A1 class defense; B3 speed; C4 leadoff) would be a good addition for his defense, the rest is average. Gordon could be offered 4 years but at no more than 10-12 million. Zobrist 34 YOA, (B1 defense; C1 speed and B1 leadoff) would be a better fit at 2B, but no team is going to give Zobrist more than one year maybe two at about 7-8 million. He is 34 and already showing signs of wear and tear.  I would rather sign a guy like Gerardo Parra from the Orioles who is more of a complete LF with some power and not bad speed. Parra will command somewhere between Gordon and Zobrist and it is more likely it won't cost a draft pick because the Orioles are not about to give him a QO. LF could also come via trade for a young pitcher or prospect if the above mentioned are too costly. Heyward I think is out of the question, too expensive and has hardly played LF.

[Second Base]

Scotty if they are going to go the route for sustainable success that you are speaking about right now they might as well sell extremely low on Trout because even wasting one of his years is a crime.

By the way, by spending big this offseason, they will set themselves up for sustainable success over the next five years by bringing in someone like Heyward plus others creating not only greater total team production but also allowing them to keep some of their key prospects as team depth.

Every decision the Angels make this offseason should be based around maximizing every single one of Mike Trout's controllable seasons. If they aren't trying to do that they should throw in the towel.

In regard to your statement about free agents Jason Heyward is an exception to the rule. Generally I don't like free agency but not only is it a necessary evil it is a mandatory evil this year.

I'm absolutely certain the Angels believed in sustained success when they signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton. It wasn't and it isn't.

So what makes it different this time. Before Pujols and Wilson, the Angels were only a couple games out if the playoffs, and it didn't work. The money is the same, so is the commitment.

So why do the same thing all over again and expect a different result?

[ettin]

I'm absolutely certain the Angels believed in sustained success when they signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton. It wasn't and it isn't.

So what makes it different this time. Before Pujols and Wilson, the Angels were only a couple games out if the playoffs, and it didn't work. The money is the same, so is the commitment.

So why do the same thing all over again and expect a different result?

 

The fact that Heyward is 6 years younger than when Pujols signed Scotty, you know that.

 

In regards to Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton, injuries and performance decline happen. Pujols hit 40 HR's this year so I'd call that some type of sustained success? For me personally the Hamilton signing should never have happened. Wilson's been a workhorse type except for this year where he warned the coaching staff in Spring Training he wasn't feeling great and subsequently worked his way off the roster onto the DL (heading into his walk year where his best performance is critical). Bottom line is people were expecting Cardinals Pujols and got Angels Pujols which isn't bad but not what they had hoped for in its entirety.

 

I think you'll have a hard time defending any reason not to sign a 26 year old defensively gifted 5-tool type OF Scotty but trying to compare him to those 3, who were over 30 when they signed, is a stretch and I think you'd admit that.

 

Scotty this is about building a reliable core around Mike Trout not about the conceptual ideas of whether or not to sign free agents. In a vacuum you always want to draft or trade for the players you need and never dip in the FA well.

 

By spending big this offseason the Angels can build a strong unit of players during Mike's controllable years by sacrificing money and potentially some of our prospects in key trades (and even 1 or more draft picks for 2016). The results of these signings and deals can result in a group of players who will compete year to year through Mike's remaining contract and give the Angels a chance to win each and every season.

 

I'll explain more in the Primer as I don't care to rewrite the whole damn article (and believe me I spent too much time doing it already). I think it will fully illuminate my view of what the Angels should be doing this year.

Edited November 4, 2015 by ettin

[tdawg87]

What the Angels need at LF is a good defensive, speedy player who can lead-off. Gordon is 31 YOA (A1 class defense; B3 speed; C4 leadoff) would be a good addition for his defense, the rest is average. Gordon could be offered 4 years but at no more than 10-12 million. Zobrist 34 YOA, (B1 defense; C1 speed and B1 leadoff) would be a better fit at 2B, but no team is going to give Zobrist more than one year maybe two at about 7-8 million. He is 34 and already showing signs of wear and tear.  I would rather sign a guy like Gerardo Parra from the Orioles who is more of a complete LF with some power and not bad speed. Parra will command somewhere between Gordon and Zobrist and it is more likely it won't cost a draft pick because the Orioles are not about to give him a QO. LF could also come via trade for a young pitcher or prospect if the above mentioned are too costly. Heyward I think is out of the question, too expensive and has hardly played LF.

 

Gordon will get a lot more than 10-12 million over 4 years. Zobrist's contract may double what you said.

[Second Base]

The fact that Heyward is 6 years younger than when Pujols signed Scotty, you know that.

 

In regards to Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton, injuries and performance decline happen. Pujols hit 40 HR's this year so I'd call that some type of sustained success? For me personally the Hamilton signing should never have happened. Wilson's been a workhorse type except for this year where he warned the coaching staff in Spring Training he wasn't feeling great and subsequently worked his way off the roster onto the DL (heading into his walk year where his best performance is critical). Bottom line is people were expecting Cardinals Pujols and got Angels Pujols which isn't bad but not what they had hoped for in its entirety.

 

I think you'll have a hard time defending any reason not to sign a 26 year old defensively gifted 5-tool type OF Scotty but trying to compare him to those 3, who were over 30 when they signed, is a stretch and I think you'd admit that.

 

Scotty this is about building a reliable core around Mike Trout not about the conceptual ideas of whether or not to sign free agents. In a vacuum you always want to draft or trade for the players you need and never dip in the FA well.

 

By spending big this offseason the Angels can build a strong unit of players during Mike's controllable years by sacrificing money and potentially some of our prospects in key trades (and even 1 or more draft picks for 2016). The results of these signings and deals can result in a group of players who will compete year to year through Mike's remaining contract and give the Angels a chance to win each and every season.

 

I'll explain more in the Primer as I don't care to rewrite the whole damn article (and believe me I spent too much time doing it already). I think it will fully illuminate my view of what the Angels should be doing this year.

I very much agree with you on building a core group around Trout, but 200-250 million on non-superstar Jason Heyward? That one is hard to swallow. I think for the 25 million we'd be paying Heyward, we could just about get Span, Kendrick and O'Day.

I know why you want Heyward. Because he's good. He hits for average, gets on base, can run, has some power and plays great D. Span also hits for average, reaches base, can run and would slot nicely in LF. Kendrick can also hit for average, get on base, run a little, has some pop and plays great D. And O'Day in the 7th could be season-altering.

Anyway, I enjoy your write ups. Keep them coming.

[ten ocho recon scout]

^agree. Heyward is probably better than both scotty and i are giving him credit for, but i dont see him as a superstar (like scotty says), but he'll get superstar money.