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Haren?


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Without delving into Haren's current performance or guessing what he will look like next year, he has the Dodgers over a barrel.  No team would trade for him knowing he'd retire, except the Angels.  The Dodgers are paying him $10 mil, so if they wanted to move him or get money off the books, the Angels could hypothetically trade for him with the Dodgers picking up a portion of the tab. 

 

Could be advantageous for the Angels to look at this if you could get Haren for 1 year, at 5 mil or less, especially with pitching prices the way they are.

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Without delving into Haren's current performance or guessing what he will look like next year, he has the Dodgers over a barrel.  No team would trade for him knowing he'd retire, except the Angels.  The Dodgers are paying him $10 mil, so if they wanted to move him or get money off the books, the Angels could hypothetically trade for him with the Dodgers picking up a portion of the tab. 

 

Could be advantageous for the Angels to look at this if you could get Haren for 1 year, at 5 mil or less, especially with pitching prices the way they are.

This is exactly the kind of move we need. We're still 1 starting pitcher injury away from the bullpen starting every 5th game. Realistically we need two more starting pitchers (not necessary top rotation aces) for depth an insurance against injury. Someone like Dan Haren and Brandon McCarthy, along with a trade or something to get a good defensive catcher and we'll be in good shape for 2015.

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Unless the Dodgers pick up 2 million or so from his contract the Angels would be at or over the luxury tax for 2015 (going by arb projections) and they'd be pretty much forced to trade someone, probably Howie as he's the best possible target. I don't think trading Howie just to free up payroll so Dan Haren can keep you under the tax is a good strategy.

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Haren is experiencing a huge velocity loss each new year and has been about a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher in the past 3 years. If you can get the Dodgers to eat 6-7 million dollars of the deal, then getting Haren for 1 year at 3-4 million may make sense. Taking on the 1/10 deal is a little unwise though. And this is coming from a huge Dan Haren fan. I just think his time as a quality pitcher in the majors is done. 

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I dunno about #4 SP, he's posted 3 consecutive years with an ERA over 4 and the periphs indicate that's no fluke. He's experienced a substantial drop in velocity and isn't going to give you more than 170 innings anymore. That's a 5th starter if you ask me and the Angels already have a couple of guys who could profile in that spot like Nick Tropeano or Cory Rasmus.

If the Angels are going to go out and chase pitching, best to go after quality. Nice as he is, Haren's not the quality the Angels need to trade for right now.

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Unless the Dodgers pick up 2 million or so from his contract the Angels would be at or over the luxury tax for 2015 (going by arb projections) and they'd be pretty much forced to trade someone, probably Howie as he's the best possible target. I don't think trading Howie just to free up payroll so Dan Haren can keep you under the tax is a good strategy.

The penalties for going over the over the luxury tax are insignificant uniless you remain over the threshold for multiple straight years. A short term deal for someone like Dan Haren (and perhaps another pitcher on a 2 year deal) while you're in a window to win is exactly the time you want to go over the cap.

 

First-time offenders:       17.5% tax on payroll above threshold

Second-time offenders:  30% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 25% of revenue sharing rebate

Third-time offenders:      40% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 50% of revenue sharing rebate

Fourth-time offenders:    50% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 75% of revenue sharing rebate

Fifth-time offenders:       50% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 100% of revenue sharing rebate

 

Revenue sharing rebate is about $30M a year so that part of the tax is what's especially onerous for repeat offenders. Basically going over for one year is not a problem. Over for two years is tolerable. What you don't want to do is lock in a $25M AAV contact for Max Scherzer and be all but guaranteed to be over the threshold for multiple straight years.

 

This new CBT really encourages every-other-year boom-bust cycles (see: Red Sox, Giants)

Edited by ScottLux
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The penalties for going over the over the luxury tax are insignificant uniless you remain over the threshold for multiple straight years. A short term deal for someone like Dan Haren (and perhaps another pitcher on a 2 year deal) while you're in a window to win is exactly the time you want to go over the cap.

First-time offenders: 17.5% tax on payroll above threshold

Second-time offenders: 30% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 25% of revenue sharing rebate

Third-time offenders: 40% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 50% of revenue sharing rebate

Fourth-time offenders: 50% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 75% of revenue sharing rebate

Fifth-time offenders: 50% tax on payroll above threshold, forfeit 100% of revenue sharing rebate

Revenue sharing rebate is about $30M a year so that part of the tax is what's especially onerous for repeat offenders. Basically going over for one year is not a problem. Over for two years is tolerable. What you don't want to do is lock in a $25M AAV contact for Max Scherzer and be all but guaranteed to be over the threshold for multiple straight years.

This new CBT really encourages every-other-year boom-bust cycles (see: Red Sox, Giants)

Yes, tell this to the owner of the team.

Until he outright says he will go over the tax, or goes over it without any issue, than we must assume that he wants to stay under it.

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I don't see the need for the Angels to pursue Haren...at least at this point in the off season. There are better options out there right now and, since Haren has closed the door on being traded to any other MLB team other than the Angels, the opportunity to trade for him should still be there later. 

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