What OPS do Pujols and Hamilton each need in 2015 to be satisfactory?

[Lou]

That's why i said at this point the money doesn't matter - especially in relation to the thread topic.

[Angels]

It matters because Hamilton is being paid like a superstar. He is paid to hit like one. Anything less than star offense from him and it's not acceptable as far as expectations are concerned. The Angels would take anything positive at this point, I'm sure....but it's still disappointing and not what they were expecting or had in mind when they signed him.

And of course his contract matters. It gives him a much longer leash. He can suck for prolonged periods and still be allowed to suck some more because his contract is too large to get rid of.

[Lou]

if you read what i originally wrote, i said it doesn't matter because there's we can do about it.

[Angels]

So..what kind of production from Hamilton would you consider to be satisfactory?

[DoubleOffTheWall]

Anyone think thar Pujols' numbers would be much stronger out of the DH spot?

[T.G.]

This is one of the frustrating things about this forum at times... the question is asked what kind of OPS would it take to make Pujols and Hamilton satisfactory and it turns into another opportunity to whine about their contracts.  We get it... we know some of you think they're a huge waste of money....

 

For me, I'd just like them to be productive enough to get the Angels back into the post-season.  Even if they both had an .850 OPS and the Angels failed to make the play-offs, I would view the season as disappointing.  I am more interested in seeing what the team does as a whole.  A lot of things went right for the Angels to win the west and have the best record in baseball - repeating that will be challenging unless they get contributions from everyone again.

[Angelsjunky]

You can't separate performance from salary because players are paid to perform at a certain level, and Pujols and Hamilton are among the highest paid players in baseball.

 

When the Pujols and Hamilton contracts were signed, Dipotoreno wasn't thinking "I'll be satisfied as long as Pujols has a 125 OPS+, Hamilton a 114 (or 128 and 110 in terms of their totals with the Angels so far). They were probably thinking that they could get four or five years of a 150 OPS+ from Pujols, and three or four of 130-140 from Hamilton. But the problem is that they've both performed so far around the level of what was expected from the latter half of their contracts, when they would be in decline, which begs the question: if this is how they're performing early on, how will they look with further decline?

 

I believe that before the season I predicted that 2014 would Pujols' best year of the ten-year contract. I was wrong in that 2012 was better. At this point I can only hope that 2015 will be his best year, but again, how much can we expect from a "35" year old? Is there any reason to think that Pujols will do anything more than, at best, end the season on a hot streak and end up with an OPS around .820?

 

I'd like to see Pujols rested more. He started off pretty well this year, with an OPS over .900 as late as May 10th. But then he hit rough waters and his OPS dropped. From June 1st on he was remarkably consistent, his OPS fluctuating between .767 and .820. But for most of that time it was between around .790 and .810, so it is likely that's what we'll see again next year - around .800.

 

Next year Josh Hamilton will have the 3rd highest salary in baseball, and Pujols the 8th highest - and that includes pitchers. Hamilton will be the highest paid position player in baseball, Pujols the 3rd highest. I think "satisfactory" would imply that they are among the better hitters in the game, especially considering that most of their value comes from their bats. In 2014 there were eight players with an OPS of .900+, so I think that is really the mark for "satisfactory" for the 1st and 3rd highest position players in the game. .850 is "passable" but not even quite "satisfactory."

 

So yeah:

Pleasing: .950

Satisfactory: .900

Below expectation but passable: .850

[T.G.]

You can't separate performance from salary because players are paid to perform at a certain level...

 

 

Actually, I can.  Maybe you can't or choose not to, but that's up to you.

 

Here's a question for you... Did Moreno pay Albert for his projected OPS or for the milestones he would hit while wearing an Angels uniform?  I'm betting it's a little bit of both.  In Pujols' case - the milestones he will achieve provides Moreno with an opportunity to expand the brand....

 

Moreno's ultimate goal is winning a World Series or two, or three...  If he does that while Hamilton and/or Pujols have an OPS south of .850, I'm sure he wont' care much.

 

AO didn't ask what was satisfactory relative to their salary... he asked what was satisfactory....  Angelsjunky - You brought up the salary to enhance your argument - which I respect. It's the people who just use this opportunity to carry on with their never-ending rant that bugs me.

[19HALO71]

About a dollar.

[Lou]

Was just about to write the same thing, TG.

I won't be satisfied with Calhoun's and Shoemaker's production if they are near the worst on the team in 2015 just because they will be among the lowest paid.

[Angel Oracle]

Get over the money. There's nothing that we can do about it.

Except to hope that Arte learned his lesson the hard way about big money contracts for age 30+ players.

[Lou]

and there's nothing we can do about that either.  

[Ohtaniland]

Except to hope that Arte learned his lesson the hard way about big money contracts for age 30+ players.

The lesson learned here is that we should never ever call Arte cheap again.

[Angel Oracle]

I'd personally prefer that we could call him savvy and not cheap.

Spend money, just don't go crazy on big money contracts for guys age 32+.    (GMJHGH, Pujols, and Hackilton all in this category)

Edited October 14, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[NrM]

You can't separate performance from salary because players are paid to perform at a certain level, and Pujols and Hamilton are among the highest paid players in baseball.

 

When the Pujols and Hamilton contracts were signed, Dipotoreno wasn't thinking "I'll be satisfied as long as Pujols has a 125 OPS+, Hamilton a 114 (or 128 and 110 in terms of their totals with the Angels so far). They were probably thinking that they could get four or five years of a 150 OPS+ from Pujols, and three or four of 130-140 from Hamilton. But the problem is that they've both performed so far around the level of what was expected from the latter half of their contracts, when they would be in decline, which begs the question: if this is how they're performing early on, how will they look with further decline?

 

 

Nah he was prob thinking.

 

"Why the **** did Arte hire me as GM if he's the one making the decisions."

 

thankfully, the GMing Dipoto has done, has been great work.

 

Edit: I just noticed erno at the end of Dipoto.

But yea.. Dipoto isn't stupid enough to sign guys like Pujols and Hamilton without some pressure from the higher ups.

Edited October 14, 2014 by Poozy

[Stradling]

Tell me the last time a big name free agent was signed for what he will do versus what he has done? Welcome to the cost of big name free agents. We are not the only ones doing this we just care far less about how bad other contracts are out there. Case in point, some people here would trade Hamilton for ARod, perhaps the stupidest thing I've read on here. Hamilton has isolated himself to some fans on here, ARod has isolated himself from his team, the sport and every single fan of the sport.

To the OP, I will be satisfied with our three big money players if they get us to the post season and perform well.

[Oz27]

Tell me the last time a big name free agent was signed for what he will do versus what he has done? Welcome to the cost of big name free agents. We are not the only ones doing this we just care far less about how bad other contracts are out there. Case in point, some people here would trade Hamilton for ARod, perhaps the stupidest thing I've read on here. Hamilton has isolated himself to some fans on here, ARod has isolated himself from his team, the sport and every single fan of the sport.

To the OP, I will be satisfied with our three big money players if they get us to the post season and perform well.

Hamilton is a sunk cost in the same way Rodriguez is. There's nothing stupid about swapping bad contract for bad contract and saving $28 million over three years in the process.

 

The idea of trading for a contract and situation as bad as Rodriguez is, well, sickening. But the dire situation the Hamilton contract leaves us in puts us in a position where seemingly absurd notions actually aren't that absurd.

[Stradling]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hamilton will perform closer to his contract over the next three years than ARod.

[Oz27]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hamilton will perform closer to his contract over the next three years than ARod.

The question is more what provides us better value - Hamilton at $89mil or ARod at $61mil. The reality is both provide next to nothing, so I'd rather have the cheaper one.

 

I'm not saying this is what I'd do, but it's the sort of option we should be exploring.

[Taylor]

so they'd essentially have to be in the top 10 in the league to be satisfactory?

 

I would say so. They're in the top 10 highest-paid.

[ScottT]

Do you really expect Pujols to improve at his age? He's going to be "35" next year.

 

But to answer your question, consider that he had a 3.3 fWAR this year. He loses about 1 fWAR a year to baserunning and defense, so consider that a .272/.324/.466 line gets him to 3.3 fWAR. Now consider that the value of a free agent is supposed to be around 1 WAR per $5 million. That seems high to me, but that's what Fangraphs came up with. Now consider that in 2015 Pujols will make $24 million a year, and then +$1M per year for five years after. So in 2015, for him to be worth the $24M, that's $24M divided by $5, or 4.8 fWAR.

 

So for Pujols to be "satisfactory" in 2015, he has to earn that $24M, which is roughly 4.5 to 5 WAR. I'm guessing he would need at least an .850 OPS.

 

As for Hamilton, he makes $25M next year and had a 1.1 fWAR in 89 games this year with a .745 OPS, a pace of about 2 WAR in a full season. He's got a long way to go. I'll say he needs the same as Pujols, an .850 OPS to be satisfactory.

 

So yeah, all of that to get to this: .850. And that's just "satisfactory." .900 OPS is closer to expected value for the money, .950+ good value.

 

 

Good analysis except for leaving out the fact that free agents get paid a premium. You just don't get good value from free agents for the most part.    

[Hollyw00d]

I'd rather have Hamilton than arod, at least josh hasn't thrown his teammates under the bus yet

[maximus p]

Anyone think thar Pujols' numbers would be much stronger out of the DH spot?

2014 DH Stats:  180 PA's, 10 2b's, 10 hr's, .325/.372/.571, .321 vs. .248 Babip...it goes on and on how much better he was as a DH THIS year, not so much better in 2013 though.

[Angel Oracle]

This franchise has a bad record with regard to the performance of big money FA signings/trade acquisitions.

How many have truly produced well enough?

Where is the due diligence?

Edited October 15, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

Actually, I can.  Maybe you can't or choose not to, but that's up to you.

 

Here's a question for you... Did Moreno pay Albert for his projected OPS or for the milestones he would hit while wearing an Angels uniform?  I'm betting it's a little bit of both.  In Pujols' case - the milestones he will achieve provides Moreno with an opportunity to expand the brand....

 

Moreno's ultimate goal is winning a World Series or two, or three...  If he does that while Hamilton and/or Pujols have an OPS south of .850, I'm sure he wont' care much.

 

AO didn't ask what was satisfactory relative to their salary... he asked what was satisfactory....  Angelsjunky - You brought up the salary to enhance your argument - which I respect. It's the people who just use this opportunity to carry on with their never-ending rant that bugs me.

 

Yeah, I hear you but I think one must, or should, weigh value when offering contracts. But to be honest, I think people are trying to make the best of a bad situation, and I get that. But it doesn't change the fact that both contracts have turned out abyssmally, and far worse than Dipoto or Moreno predicted.

 

Another way to put it is: If Arte and Jerry knew that Josh and Albert would perform the way they have, would they have still offered them the contracts they did? Not a chance in hell - no matter what milestones Albert will pass (and remember, Albert isn't going to pass as many milestones at this level of performance).

 

Nah he was prob thinking.

 

"Why the **** did Arte hire me as GM if he's the one making the decisions."

 

thankfully, the GMing Dipoto has done, has been great work.

 

Edit: I just noticed erno at the end of Dipoto.

But yea.. Dipoto isn't stupid enough to sign guys like Pujols and Hamilton without some pressure from the higher ups.

 

I'm still wondering if this whole idea that Arte stepped in on both signings is based in reality or just a fan concoction. I mean it makes sense, but I'm not sure where it is coming from.

 

Tell me the last time a big name free agent was signed for what he will do versus what he has done? Welcome to the cost of big name free agents. We are not the only ones doing this we just care far less about how bad other contracts are out there. Case in point, some people here would trade Hamilton for ARod, perhaps the stupidest thing I've read on here. Hamilton has isolated himself to some fans on here, ARod has isolated himself from his team, the sport and every single fan of the sport.

 

None of which justifies it as a good idea. I mean you're basically saying, "Even though big name free agency usually turns out bad, everyone's doing it, so we might as well too." Sorry, I don't buy that.

 

But yeah, I agree that trading Hamilton for A-Rod would be bad.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say Hamilton will perform closer to his contract over the next three years than ARod.

 

I think your limb is a sound one.

 

Good analysis except for leaving out the fact that free agents get paid a premium. You just don't get good value from free agents for the most part.    

 

Yes, I agree. But as I implied to Stradling, that simply means that a good GM should be savvy and should offer very few big contracts. If I were a GM there would be only three instances where a "mega-contract" would be offered:

1) An in-house young talent, ala Trout

2) A free agent still in his 20s that has no signs of decline (e.g. Greinke a couple years ago)

3) Re-upping a long-term organizational player

 

Albert was 32 and had declined in each of the previous two years, slightly in 2010 and then significantly in 2011. There were reasons to hope for a bounce-back in 2012, but I would have hoped that the Angels had better scouting than I could offer.

 

Josh was also 32 and simply a mess of a human being with a career, and previous season, that was all over the place. The warning signs were there and it seems that the Angels just threw a $125 million Hail Mary on this one.