Pujols since April 27

[ten ocho recon scout]

Than who bats third? Hamilton? Trout?

Hamilton last year would make Wells an all star. Trou to does well where he is a and gets more ABs.

Would you prefer Kendrick. You know the guy many on here traded for a relief pitcher?

There really isn't many options.

storm, you need to stop looking at hamiltons 2013. Its no more important now than his 2012.

Hamilton will never be his texas self here, but st this point hes a more solid hitter than pujols

[Angelsjunky]

optimum lineup construction shows that you should have your best hitters 2nd and 4th.  It's also an overrated inducement of hand wringing.  

 

That said, here is a lineup construction tool based on their current numbers:

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=pujols+&OBA0=.308&Slug0=.459&Player1=trout&OBA1=.406&Slug1=.611&Player2=hamilton&OBA2=.389&Slug2=.471&Player3=freese&OBA3=.317&Slug3=.327&Player4=aybar&OBA4=.315&Slug4=.415&Player5=kendrick&OBA5=.338&Slug5=.376&Player6=calhoun&OBA6=.345&Slug6=.494&Player7=iannetta&OBA7=.378&Slug7=.417&Player8=cron&OBA8=.320&Slug8=.529&Model=0

 

of course, this lineup doesn't take into account sequencing or speed and this years numbers are, of course, a bit of a small sample for some players.  

 

That's a fun little tool there, although the obvious caveat is that it doesn't include speed and other factors. Anyhow, according to that the optimal lineup is:

 

Hamilton

Trout

Kendrick

Cron

Calhoun

Pujols

Aybar

Freese

Iannetta

 

It is interesting to note that some of the alternates have Iannetta leading off. I suggested this at one point, although know that Scioscia would never do it.

[bloodbrother]

I would bat Hamilton third. With the lefty at the plate, it should help give Trout a better chance to steal more bases and make it more difficult on the catcher. Oh and he's better than Pujols to, so there's that

 

I'd like to see Cron hitting higher eventually to. He's been great with RISP so far this season. Pujols shouldn't be hitting higher than 5th at best really, but I know that's never gonna be a realistic option.

[tomsred]

actually, statiscally, on the team there's currently seven better options than pujols.

are you really making the argument that the best offense in baseball has no way to replace a league average hitter?

 

Actually my opinion is that you don't always make lineups based solely on past statistics.  You make lineups based on what you feel the players are capable of doing for you in the near term future.  Past statistics help you judge that, but are not the only factor.  It's a game played by human beings, not completely by statistical measures.  The season is so long, and most players go through so many ups and downs, injuries, and personal problems that if you ran the team based solely on current past statistics you would create a revolving door of players with no continuity or cohesion.

[stormngt]

Because its stupid just to base evaluations just on statistics. For example i have a lot more faith that Pujols will improve in the second half that Cron maintaining his numbers. Just who would you bat in third instead? Calhoun? He is doing a great job at leadoff.

and please don't go to Ianetta or Conger. Aybar? Yeah ok.

actually, statiscally, on the team there's currently seven better options than pujols.

are you really making the argument that the best offense in baseball has no way to replace a league average hitter?

[stormngt]

I have no problem with Cron batting higher. If he can prove he can sustain his production after teams make an adjustment to him.

I would bat Hamilton third. With the lefty at the plate, it should help give Trout a better chance to steal more bases and make it more difficult on the catcher. Oh and he's better than Pujols to, so there's that

I'd like to see Cron hitting higher eventually to. He's been great with RISP so far this season. Pujols shouldn't be hitting higher than 5th at best really, but I know that's never gonna be a realistic option.

[Hollyw00d]

Actually my opinion is that you don't always make lineups based solely on past statistics. You make lineups based on what you feel the players are capable of doing for you in the near term future. Past statistics help you judge that, but are not the only factor. It's a game played by human beings, not completely by statistical measures. The season is so long, and most players go through so many ups and downs, injuries, and personal problems that if you ran the team based solely on current past statistics you would create a revolving door of players with no continuity or cohesion.

thanks for making my point for me.

our #3 hitter has been living off his past statistics

[bloodbrother]

That's a fun little tool there, although the obvious caveat is that it doesn't include speed and other factors. Anyhow, according to that the optimal lineup is:

 

Hamilton

Trout

Kendrick

Cron

Calhoun

Pujols

Aybar

Freese

Iannetta

 

It is interesting to note that some of the alternates have Iannetta leading off. I suggested this at one point, although know that Scioscia would never do it.

 

 

A lot of the optimal lineups have Cron hitting 4th, which makes sense. HE's been incredible with RISP this season, the polar opposite of Pujols

[Hollyw00d]

Because its stupid just to base evaluations just on statistics. For example i have a lot more faith that Pujols will improve in the second half that Cron maintaining his numbers. Just who would you bat in third instead? Calhoun? He is doing a great job at leadoff.

and please don't go to Ianetta or Conger. Aybar? Yeah ok.

what makes you think pujols has a better chance of improving? He is an old, broken down player, that has declined every year and every month THIS season.

bottom line, I want the best hitters, statistically not intangibly, at the top of the lineup. I don't care what their name is, what their salary is, what they've done in the past, how good looking they are, how much grit they have, I want the players who produce the most runs getting the most at bats. Period!

[tomsred]

I would bat Hamilton third. With the lefty at the plate, it should help give Trout a better chance to steal more bases and make it more difficult on the catcher. Oh and he's better than Pujols to, so there's that

 

I'd like to see Cron hitting higher eventually to. He's been great with RISP so far this season. Pujols shouldn't be hitting higher than 5th at best really, but I know that's never gonna be a realistic option.

 

With regard to Hamilton batting third, he does swing and miss a lot, and that would make it hard on base runners attempting to steal.  Pujols' problem is that he hits a lot of hard ground balls, and he is easy to throw out in that regard because he is slow (or injured?).  I would say that Pujols is more of a contact hitter than Hamilton, maybe someone has some statistics to prove or disprove that one.

 

I can't see this organization giving up on Pujols, he's going to play and hit somewhere.  He has had a really good year defensively, and I believe the good defense on the team this year by all the players is a big part of why they are winning.  

[tomsred]

thanks for making my point for me.

our #3 hitter has been living off his past statistics

 

You're welcome, but he's also hitting third because of what teams perceive he is capable of doing.

[Hollyw00d]

Teams already know what he is capable of doing. That's why the guy ahead of him is headed toward a bonds-like walk rate.

our manager DOESNT know what he isnt capable of. That's why pujols continues to take a better hitter"s spot

[tomsred]

The more you move Trout down in the lineup the fewer AB's he gets, and the more his speed is negated.  I wouldn't take Trout out of the number two position.  The only option is to move Pujols down one or two slots, but it's not a perfect solution.

[stormngt]

That is true if he will sustain his production. But you assuming a lot from a guy pitchers in the league haven't seen much of. I Wm willing to predict that his numbers will drop to what Pujols is doing now.

A lot of the optimal lineups have Cron hitting 4th, which makes sense. HE's been incredible with RISP this season, the polar opposite of Pujols

[stormngt]

Because of his total statistics. Because of his first month. Because of his 2012 second half wasn't that long ago. Because up until two games ago he was catching fire for a couple of weeks. And he is the striking out so I think his BABIP will improve.

what makes you think pujols has a better chance of improving? He is an old, broken down player, that has declined every year and every month THIS season.

bottom line, I want the best hitters, statistically not intangibly, at the top of the lineup. I don't care what their name is, what their salary is, what they've done in the past, how good looking they are, how much grit they have, I want the players who produce the most runs getting the most at bats. Period!

[stormngt]

Because of his total statistics. Because of his first month. Because of his 2012 second half wasn't that long ago. Because up until two games ago he was catching fire for a couple of weeks. And he is the striking out so I think his BABIP will improve.

what makes you think pujols has a better chance of improving? He is an old, broken down player, that has declined every year and every month THIS season.

bottom line, I want the best hitters, statistically not intangibly, at the top of the lineup. I don't care what their name is, what their salary is, what they've done in the past, how good looking they are, how much grit they have, I want the players who produce the most runs getting the most at bats. Period!

[jshep]

That is true if he will sustain his production. But you assuming a lot from a guy pitchers in the league haven't seen much of. I Wm willing to predict that his numbers will drop to what Pujols is doing now.

 

 

Possibly, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

Why not ride the hot hand for the time being though? No one's suggesting any lineup switch has to be forever, so if Cron DOES come crashing back to Earth at some point and/or Albert gets his shit together, you can bump him back down. Same with one of the other guys who is currently outperforming Albert.

[greginpsca]

The thing that bothers me most about Pujols is that it seems about once a game he hits into a double play. Instead of making one out, he consistently makes the team give up that extra out in one ab. Talk about a rally killer. I haven't looked up the #'s, but i wouldn't be surprised if he has close to as many dp's as he has rbi's.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

The thing that bothers me most about Pujols is that it seems about once a game he hits into a double play. Instead of making one out, he consistently makes the team give up that extra out in one ab. Talk about a rally killer. I haven't looked up the #'s, but i wouldn't be surprised if he has close to as many dp's as he has rbi's.

This year, he has 14 GIDP's. Last year, in only 99 games, he had 18 and in 2012, he had 19.

[moccasin]

Hamilton should definitely hit third. He's getting the least amount of fastballs in the league already, and Trout being on base should help him.

Hamilton doesn't miss fastballs. It seems like he guesses fastball and misses badly at times, but even if that happens, it will give Trout a good chance to steal second.

I remember him hitting a lot of his HRs in Texas when Andrus was on 1st base.

[mauijim3]

If I was the opponent, I would give Trout an intentional walk every time and pitch to Pujols. Wouldn't want Trout to beat me, let the older guy see if he still has it. And it looks liek he doesn't.

[bloodbrother]

Possibly, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

Why not ride the hot hand for the time being though? No one's suggesting any lineup switch has to be forever, so if Cron DOES come crashing back to Earth at some point and/or Albert gets his shit together, you can bump him back down. Same with one of the other guys who is currently outperforming Albert.

 

Exactly.

[Guest]

The thing that bothers me most about Pujols is that it seems about once a game he hits into a double play. Instead of making one out, he consistently makes the team give up that extra out in one ab. Talk about a rally killer. I haven't looked up the #'s, but i wouldn't be surprised if he has close to as many dp's as he has rbi's.

Biggest problem now is his situation batting is awful. He's .196 with RISP and 0-13 with the bases loaded. Trout even has been pitched around with the bases loaded so the other team could go for the GIDP (or force at home) on groundballs to 3B. His homers tend to be Vernon Wells quality solo shots in blowouts.

[Taylor]

Cool thread.

[Angelsjunky]

Cool thread.

 

Because one home run changes two months of suckitude.