John Sickels Top 20 Angels Prospects for 2014

[NrM]

I don't think he ever reaches that potential but if he can hit I won't complain too much.

DH only guys are hard to get excited about unless they are incredible hitters but I'll remain optimistic with him if he can come up and be a good #5/6 guy in the lineup.

Agreed.

Don't really see the Butler comparisons tbh

I think he compares better to trumbo since they both don't know what a walk is.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Poozy

[Second Base]

Well, I think a useful tool when putting Cron's performance into context is considering the environment.  He did a solid job in the Texas League but absolutely lit the AFL on fire despite the competition being considered "more elite".  You gotta figure some of those Texas League DB's turned into AFL HR's.  Anaheim by comparison will play more neutral for him as he's a predominantly LCF power hitter and guys like Trumbo and Trout really had no problems with that gap.  

 

As for his comparisons, a RH Matt Adams, Billy Butler with more power but lower BA/OBP, a RH Chris Davis version 2012, Garrett Jones with more power and higher BA, A fully RH version of Nick Swisher or Mark Texeira once they landed with the Yankees.  There really isn't a power hitter exactly like him because Cron's a rare sort of power hitter that doesn't resemble lots of others, both in a good way and a bad way.  Still, that list of players isn't terrible to be associated with. 

[nikkachez]

Like he said about Borenstein, it'll be interesting if he hits in AA. Borenstein and Lindsey look like solid players to me. I'm higher on the pitching side, I see a lot of organizational depth options. Sappington looks like he could become a solid 4-5 guy at the worst a solid relief pitcher, Green could be a 2-3 starter, Ricardo Sanchez has a high ceiling, Jonah Wesley is a breakout prospect for me, Morin/Alvarez/Maronde/Bedrosian/Scoggins/Roth/Wood could give us solid bullpen options, I like Stamets as a utility player too. 

[Angelsjunky]

I think the point with Cron is that, as Scotty has said, his floor is relatively high - he is unlikely to be less than a solid platoon bat who can help some team with his power. I think Scotty's being a bit optimistic about his absolute potential (.290, 40 HR) - or at least that is so unlikely to be almost not worth mentioning - an absolute best-case scenario, sort of like Kole Calhoun turning into another Brian Giles (I've been calling him "Baby Giles" for years which is not to say he'll be as good as Giles, but that he's the same type of player).

 

For Cron, I see a more realistic spectrum being something like:

 

Optimistic (10%): .290+, 30+ HR

Moderate (40%): .270/.800, 25-30 HR

Pessimistic (30%): .250/.700, 20+ HR

Very Pessimistic (20%): Quad-A type

[YouthofToday]

Cron is a "Baby Giles"? Dude had a walk rate of 4.1% and a OBP of .381 in AA at age 23.

Giles had a walk rate of 15% for his career.

How is Cron suddenly going to get on-base when in the show?

How is Cron going to magically turn into an above average defensive corner outfielder?

Absolutely terrible analogy.

Cron seems like the classic AAAA player who bats from the wrong side without a position.

[Second Base]

I think the .290 40 HR's is the absolute win the lottery ceiling for Cron.  As you noted, 10% chance of that happening. 

[Angelsjunky]

Cron is a "Baby Giles"? Dude had a walk rate of 4.1% and a OBP of .381 in AA at age 23.

Giles had a walk rate of 15% for his career.

How is Cron suddenly going to get on-base when in the show?

How is Cron going to magically turn into an above average defensive corner outfielder?

Absolutely terrible analogy.

Cron seems like the classic AAAA player who bats from the wrong side without a position.

 

Calhoun, not Cron. Re-read my post again.

[Brent Maguire]

Cron is a "Baby Giles"? Dude had a walk rate of 4.1% and a OBP of .381 in AA at age 23.

Giles had a walk rate of 15% for his career.

How is Cron suddenly going to get on-base when in the show?

How is Cron going to magically turn into an above average defensive corner outfielder?

Absolutely terrible analogy.

Cron seems like the classic AAAA player who bats from the wrong side without a position.

He was comparing Calhoun to Giles. 

[YouthofToday]

Makes much more sense.

[Docwaukee]

I think the point with Cron is that, as Scotty has said, his floor is relatively high - he is unlikely to be less than a solid platoon bat who can help some team with his power. I think Scotty's being a bit optimistic about his absolute potential (.290, 40 HR) - or at least that is so unlikely to be almost not worth mentioning - an absolute best-case scenario, sort of like Kole Calhoun turning into another Brian Giles (I've been calling him "Baby Giles" for years which is not to say he'll be as good as Giles, but that he's the same type of player).

 

For Cron, I see a more realistic spectrum being something like:

 

Optimistic (10%): .290+, 30+ HR

Moderate (40%): .270/.800, 25-30 HR

Pessimistic (30%): .250/.700, 20+ HR

Very Pessimistic (20%): Quad-A type

Here is the problem I have with the above categories. 

First, the 'optimistic category requirements seasons are listed below.  There are 11 in the last 40 years of guys having a <5% walk rate.  There were 5,800 player seasons over that time, and look at some of the guys who did it:

 

Soriano (2)

Bichette

I. Rodriguez

Bob Horner

Matt Williams

Jose Guillen

Cecil Cooper

Kirby Puckett

Beltre

Nomar

 

If you open up the criteria a bit, or drop it down to the next category, you get a bunch more.

 

But here's the thing.  Also in the last 40 years, if you sort by a walk rate of less than 5%, there are 25 player season at 1b and/or DH where the player had an average of between .270 and .290 with greater than 20 hrs.  Why?  Because poor defending 1bman who don't get on base, and hit for a decent average with limited hr power don't stay on the field.  They just don't stick.

 

If you are all bat, that's not a very good bat. 

 

So for Cron to stick he's gonna have to hit at the optimistic category level or he's gonna have to get his BB rate up. 

 

The search did unveil a few interesting comps:

 

Shea Hillebrand

Greg Colbrunn

Joe Carter

 

and then a level up from that would be:

Garvey

Cecil Cooper

 

where the above two were just very good hitters in their prime with carter have some very good hitting seasons as well. 

[Docwaukee]

btw, I just realized that Fangraphs has a filter tool that is pretty nice

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1973&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=11341&players=0&sort=6,d

 

scroll about halfway down and you will see the filters I was able to use.

[Tyler]

Cron is pretty much Trumbo with better hand-eye coordination.

[Chuck]

Cron is pretty much Trumbo with better hand-eye coordination.

Yep. Said this before, I'll say it again.

Expect a better BA and about 10 less HR's a season from Cron vs. Trumbo in the big leagues. That's not bad folks.

[Docwaukee]

Yep. Said this before, I'll say it again.

Expect a better BA and about 10 less HR's a season from Cron vs. Trumbo in the big leagues. That's not bad folks.

I'm gonna have to disagree chuck.  If we have a .250/20-25hr 1b/DH who walks 5% of the time and plays mediocre to fairly poor defense, that doesn't get me all hot and bothered.  He's gonna have to hit 30 bombs or be a much better hitter than Trumbo to stick.  I'm not saying he won't, but the he's gonna need to turn a corner this year for me to believe.  The couple of things that give me some optimism is that he actually has a ton of raw power and he's got good contact skills. 

[Inside Pitch]

I'm gonna have to disagree chuck.  If we have a .250/20-25hr 1b/DH who walks 5% of the time and plays mediocre to fairly poor defense, that doesn't get me all hot and bothered.  He's gonna have to hit 30 bombs or be a much better hitter than Trumbo to stick.  I'm not saying he won't, but the he's gonna need to turn a corner this year for me to believe.  The couple of things that give me some optimism is that he actually has a ton of raw power and he's got good contact skills. 

 

 

Just out of curiosity...   Let's pretend he turns into post broken ankle surgery Kendrys Morales -- would people really object to that sort of production.  Obviously -- I'd like to see more from an all bat position player, but K-Mo production on the cheap would be a pretty valuable piece for this team.

[Second Base]

I think this is where the comps just don't really apply.  In the modern game, there hasn't been many prospects who fit into a C.J. Cron mold or the other way around.  Yeah he doesn't walk nearly as much as he needs and going to the majors isn't going to change that.  He also makes so much more contact than most power hitters today, and not just by a little.  His power is very real and will translate.  

 

This happens just about every year.  Someone puts up big numbers in the Cal League and the numbers aren't as impressive in the Texas League at AA.  You already know what's going to happen next year because we've seen it play out before.  Cron's going to go to AAA, he's going to put up numbers that will translate to .300/.330 35 HR's across a full season. 

[wopphil]

Yep. Said this before, I'll say it again.

Expect a better BA and about 10 less HR's a season from Cron vs. Trumbo in the big leagues. That's not bad folks.

That would be awesome, and perhaps not so unrealistic. While maybe he won't put up Trumbo's homerun numbers, if he could just hit 30 points higher he would probably have better OBP and SLG numbers.

[Brent Maguire]

The biggest issue regarding Cron is he's a top 3 prospect in our system.

That just shows how bad the system is currently.

He'll be a nice bat but I don't think he's anything more than a .800 OPS guy.

[Docwaukee]

Just out of curiosity...   Let's pretend he turns into post broken ankle surgery Kendrys Morales -- would people really object to that sort of production.  Obviously -- I'd like to see more from an all bat position player, but K-Mo production on the cheap would be a pretty valuable piece for this team.

I'd be fine with that.  but if he's going to hit 22hrs hit .275, he better walk about 50 times or hit for a bit higher average. 

 

I do agree with Scott that his comps are weird because of how much contact he makes.  To me, however, if he's got the power that people say, then why is he wasting time worrying about making contact on something he isn't going to hit very hard? 

 

If his eye hand coordination as that good, let it help him in the zones he chooses and with two strikes.  Otherwise, he's not using that skill to his advantage.  He may know what strikes look like.  He may be able to make contact with them.  But is he hitting some of those pitches hard enough to make it work to his advantage? 

 

Someone threw out the billy butler comp.  Butler hit .336 in the minors with an 8% walk rate.  In limited at bats as a 21yo in AAA he walked more than he struck out, hit 291, and had a .412 obp.  That's completely and utterly unrealistic for Cron at this point. 

 

Hell, I hope I am dead wrong and if I am, it's because he started doing something different.  But if he takes the same approach going forward, I just don't see him sticking. 

[Brent Maguire]

I have suggested a few times that he is a lite version of Billy Butler, not that he's going to actually produce at the same rate at Butler.

I would be ecstatic if Cron ever reached Butler's ceiling.

[YouthofToday]

Yep. Said this before, I'll say it again.

Expect a better BA and about 10 less HR's a season from Cron vs. Trumbo in the big leagues. That's not bad folks.

With minimal at best defensive value. That's not an everyday player.

[Angelsjunky]

Billy Butler is an underrated ballplayer. He's actually a very good hitter - he just doesn't get much love for a variety of reasons: he plays in KC, he's a DH, and he had a down year in 2013. But a career .298/.364/.459 line is nothing to sneeze at.

[Second Base]

I'd be fine with that.  but if he's going to hit 22hrs hit .275, he better walk about 50 times or hit for a bit higher average. 

 

I do agree with Scott that his comps are weird because of how much contact he makes.  To me, however, if he's got the power that people say, then why is he wasting time worrying about making contact on something he isn't going to hit very hard? 

 

If his eye hand coordination as that good, let it help him in the zones he chooses and with two strikes.  Otherwise, he's not using that skill to his advantage.  He may know what strikes look like.  He may be able to make contact with them.  But is he hitting some of those pitches hard enough to make it work to his advantage? 

 

Someone threw out the billy butler comp.  Butler hit .336 in the minors with an 8% walk rate.  In limited at bats as a 21yo in AAA he walked more than he struck out, hit 291, and had a .412 obp.  That's completely and utterly unrealistic for Cron at this point. 

 

Hell, I hope I am dead wrong and if I am, it's because he started doing something different.  But if he takes the same approach going forward, I just don't see him sticking. 

 

I think the Butler comps are unfair.  Different types of players with different skill sets. Butler's never had the raw power that Cron has (despite similar numbers, the baseball reacts to their swings completely different) and Cron has never been able to hit for average or walk as often as Butler, not even close.  The closest comp I have for Cron right now in the modern game is a player no one really knows much about yet, Cardinals 1B Matt Adams. 

 

Similar size, Cron's a bit leaner and stronger, Adams is a bit softer with a longer swing.  Everyone loves Adams right now and in all likelihood he turns into a .275/.325 30 DB 30 HR type of player.  Most Angel prospects outside of Trout aren't afforded the same benefit of the doubt because of their parent club but the result should all be the same.  Cron should be a .275/.325 35 DB 25 HR type of hitter.

[Angelsjunky]

Here is the problem I have with the above categories. 

First, the 'optimistic category requirements seasons are listed below.  There are 11 in the last 40 years of guys having a <5% walk rate.  There were 5,800 player seasons over that time, and look at some of the guys who did it:

 

Soriano (2)

Bichette

I. Rodriguez

Bob Horner

Matt Williams

Jose Guillen

Cecil Cooper

Kirby Puckett

Beltre

Nomar

 

If you open up the criteria a bit, or drop it down to the next category, you get a bunch more.

 

But here's the thing.  Also in the last 40 years, if you sort by a walk rate of less than 5%, there are 25 player season at 1b and/or DH where the player had an average of between .270 and .290 with greater than 20 hrs.  Why?  Because poor defending 1bman who don't get on base, and hit for a decent average with limited hr power don't stay on the field.  They just don't stick.

 

If you are all bat, that's not a very good bat. 

 

So for Cron to stick he's gonna have to hit at the optimistic category level or he's gonna have to get his BB rate up. 

 

The search did unveil a few interesting comps:

 

Shea Hillebrand

Greg Colbrunn

Joe Carter

 

and then a level up from that would be:

Garvey

Cecil Cooper

 

where the above two were just very good hitters in their prime with carter have some very good hitting seasons as well. 

 

Good stuff, Doc. My main point of difference is that you're comparing Cron's minor league numbers with major leaguers. We don't know how Cron will develop from here on out - his plate discipline could improve substantially, although I doubt it will ever be better than, say, Trumbo's.

 

Also note that in the AFL it was 8.7%. I know, it was only 92 PA but that's something. I think we can safely predict that while he'll never be Barry Bonds, he's going to improve upon that 4.1% in AA.

 

I really don't know what to expect from Cron. I do agree with Scotty that he's going to rake in Salt Lake, but that's hardly unusual. Regardless, we'll likely see him later this year.

[YouthofToday]

Adams had a 7.8% walk rate in AA at a similar age.

The AFL walk rate has massive sample size issues plus it's a hitters league. Not only is it it Arizona (altitude), nobody sends their premier pitching prospects there.

This Cron hype reminds me a lot of the Reckling hype found in this community a few years ago. I expect similar results. Not saying Cron won't reach the show, yet I doubt he is anything more than a no-defense, wrong side of a platoon guy. Not that valuable of an asset.