Game of Adjustments: Josh Hamilton

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Contributor - 

This season has had more than its share of disappointmentsfor Angel’s fans and one of the biggest disappointments has been the strugglesof Josh Hamilton at the plate.

Simply put Josh has been swinging at a lot of pitchesoutside of the strike zone and, when he does put the ball in play, he has nothit the ball quite as hard and it has not found as many holes as it normallyhas for him in the past.

Additionally, Hamilton has faced an increasing number ofoff-speed pitches and has had particular trouble with sinkers, curveballs, andespecially changeups.

So what does this mean now and in the future for Josh? Willhe return to the Hamilton of old and post an on-base plus slugging over 1.000?Or will he slip further, forcing the Angels to push him into a really expensivebench role at some future, point in time?

The answer appears to be somewhere in-between and let meexplain why.

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

For those of you unfamiliar with BABIP, please take the timeto read these two articles, hereand here.

In seven big league seasons Josh Hamilton has a careeraverage .327 BABIP. This is a typical number you would see when you examinereally good hitters and/or decent hitters with good speed.

In 2013, Hamilton currently has a BABIP of .257, which is 70points below his career average, above.

This can indicate a number of different things but itappears to be related to four main areas: Pitch recognition, batted ball data, parkfactors, and defensive shifts.

Clearly one of the biggest issues is Hamilton’s pitchrecognition. All year opposing pitchers have been throwing him low and outsideor high and outside and Josh has been swinging all day long.

In particular Hamilton has had trouble with off-speed stuff.He has been swinging and missing at a number of sinkers, curveballs, andchangeups this year that have led to weak contact and/or strikeouts.

Opposing pitchers throw the off speed stuff to Josh so thatwhen he swings (thinking fastball) the head of his bat goes further through thezone and either misses the ball completely or makes weaker contact with it infront of the plate hitting it to the right side of the diamond.

If Josh can reacquire some of the plate discipline hedisplayed in previous years this would go a long way towards reducing his weakcontact.

He needs to recognize the off speed pitches and start hisswing a split second later to keep the meat of the bat in the zone as the ballcrosses the plate and drive it up the middle or even to the opposite field.

Another factor is Hamilton’s reduced line drive rate, whichis down almost 1% from his career average. In the ESPN BABIP article (link isabove), the average league BABIP for line drives, for 2012, was .714.

If you look strictly at his batted ball data (Line drive,groundball, and fly ball rates) from a 2012 BABIP point-of-view, that 1%equates to an approximate drop of 10 points in BABIP. The reduction in linedrives leads to more ground balls and fly balls.

It is not the primary part of his problem but it doescontribute to his BABIP issues. Hitters who smack line drives and make hardcontact (such as Mike Trout) will see a lot of hits fall into the gaps in theoutfield and through holes in the infield.

There are also park factors to consider. According to ESPNdata, Arlington ballpark had an average BABIP of .311 for last year in 2012.Anaheim stadium had an average .290 BABIP last season.

Moving from one stadium to another for half of the seasonwould account for an approximate 10 point BABIP swing in Hamilton’s overalltotal for the year.

Finally, Josh has been the target of several defensiveshifts throughout the season. This is a consequence of his struggles with pitchrecognition and chasing after off speed pitches, resulting in weak contact intothe shift.

This weak contact to the right side of the diamond convincesopposing managers to shift their defense, accordingly, to increase the odds ofthrowing Hamilton out at first or catching a line drive or fly ball to thatside of the infield.

If Hamilton can work on his approach and hit more linedrives up the middle or to the opposite field, teams will be forced to stopputting the shift on him almost every at-bat and that will create moreopportunities for the ball to find a hole, which can, and should, result in a correspondingincrease in BABIP.

More Batted Ball Data and Injuries

Back in early August FanGraphs ran an article (found here)on the biggest decliners in HR/FB (Home Run/Fly Ball) ratios and batted balldistances from last year to this season.

Josh Hamilton, unfortunately, was on that list with anoverall reduction in his HR/FB ratio of 25.6% down to 13.3%! Yikes!

His average batted ball distance dropped 26.43 feet from 2012and, in 2013, is actually below the average for the league.

As Mike Podhorzer’s article indicates, Josh has dealt with avariety of moderate injuries throughout the season to his wrists, back, andankles. Any one of these, or some combination, could be contributing to hisproblems at the plate in addition to those mentioned above.

Conclusion

One thing that is clear is that Josh Hamilton is probablynot as bad as he has been in 2013.

Although BABIP doesn’t correlate well from year to year itdoes provide a snapshot of whether a player is outperforming or underperformingfrom their career average (which does correlate well).

It can also point towards increased or reduced contact withthe ball and even hints at a player’s luckiness or unluckiness with where theballs land in the field of play.

After examining some of the contributing factors above youcan see that the change in stadiums and the reduction in Josh’s line drive rateaccounts for about a 20 point reduction in his overall BABIP. However thatstill doesn’t account for the wide gap he has experienced this year.

If Hamilton can reacquire some of his plate discipline andpitch recognition he should be able to see the ball better and make bettercontact up the middle and to the opposite field.

By doing this he will help reduce and/or eliminate thedefensive shifts which will force the opposing defense to make the tough playsif they want to get Josh out.

Hamilton’s days as a premium middle of the order bat aredeclining, but they are not gone. Unless he experiences additional, persistentinjuries it would not be unexpected to see Hamilton return to about 70-90% ofhis formal self (pre-2012) during his remaining contract years.

Heck we may even get lucky and see Hamilton go on one of hishot streaks!

Josh was, and still is, a talented baseball player. Look forhim to get healthy in 2014 and focus on improved pitch recognition especiallywith off speed pitches. The last part is the key for him to regain his form andprovide production and protection in the middle of the Angels lineup.

Los Angeles Angels Tickets

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[Chuck]

Boy do we need him to be the Josh of old next season. 

 

If' I'm the Angels, I'm having him get with someone in the offseason to improve his approach and swing. 

 

Good article, Robert. 

[Bruce Nye]

Good stuff, as usual.

 

The Angels have to have this guy improve his stats in 2014.

[fan_since79]

Last 20 games:

 

.188 BA

.212 OBP

.388 SLG

3 BB

22 SO

 

.599 OPS

.196 BABIP

 

He does have 17 RBI in those 20 games , however.

[rageous]

His o-swing% is down from last year and same as it was in 2011 so his discipline has not gotten any worse.

Also pitchers are giving him higher percentage of strikes so it's not like pitchers are throwing more balls at him.

So using his lack of pitch discipline as an excuse doesn't explain his lack of production this year.

This along with his sudden weight loss smells like he stopped using PED in the last year and now his production has come way down.

And given that this is the type of production the team can expect him in the future.

[ettin]

His o-swing% is down from last year and same as it was in 2011 so his discipline has not gotten any worse.

Also pitchers are giving him higher percentage of strikes so it's not like pitchers are throwing more balls at him.

So using his lack of pitch discipline as an excuse doesn't explain his lack of production this year.

This along with his sudden weight loss smells like he stopped using PED in the last year and now his production has come way down.

And given that this is the type of production the team can expect him in the future.

Rageous, O-swing is only one component of plate discipline. Here is the definition from FanGraphs as one example:

 

Plate Discipline statistics tell us how patient a player is at the plate, and how good they are at making contact with pitches. There are a wide number of these stats:

O-Swing%

: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

Z-Swing%

: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.

Swing%

: The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.

O-Contact%

: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.

Z-Contact%

: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.

Contact%

: The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.

Zone%

: The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.

F-Strike%

– The percentage of first pitch strikes.

SwStr%:

The percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.

My point about his plate discipline had more to do with the quality of the contact he makes which isn't strong (which is reflected in his average distance for example). Additionally those changeups and other breaking balls are not coming off his bat well (weak contact).

[rageous]

I am not even sure what you mean by this "If Josh can reacquire some of the plate discipline hedisplayed in previous years this would go a long way towards reducing his weakcontact."

His O-Swing% and his Swing% isn't any higher than his previous years.

How else do you determine this plate discipline?

[ettin]

I am not even sure what you mean by this "If Josh can reacquire some of the plate discipline hedisplayed in previous years this would go a long way towards reducing his weakcontact."

His O-Swing% and his Swing% isn't any higher than his previous years.

How else do you determine this plate discipline?

 

Rageous I explained myself in the prior post. I am speaking about quality of contact off the bat. I think the sentence is pretty clear about that weak contact.

 

Did you like the article?

[rageous]

Rageous I explained myself in the prior post. I am speaking about quality of contact off the bat. I think the sentence is pretty clear about that weak contact.

 

Did you like the article?

Well that's not the definition of plate discipline.

[RenoHalo]

With that last AB, Josh might've just cracked my top 5 in least favorite Angel of all ****ing time. Not a clutch situation, not a high pressure spot, nothing real special about the situation, at all. It was just another in the never ending series of absolutely horrible ****ing plate appearances, a series that appears to have no end, like the Simpsons. 

[rageous]

I expect him to be DFAed in about 2 years.

[full circle]

I'd put money on josh never again posting an .800 ops. Something happened to the guy and if it was fixable, it would have been fixed by now. He is downright awful.

[rageous]

His situation reeks of PED use.

[full circle]

Agreed. Shows up to spring training 20 lbs lighter after getting his payday.

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, ettin. I hope you're right.

[SmallSampleSize]

Misleading title.

I fully expected this thread to be about his jock.

[fan_since79]

Agreed. Shows up to spring training 20 lbs lighter after getting his payday.

 

I was suspicious of the whole "juice diet" explanation from the start. Why in the world would he want to go on a diet?

[Guest]

Misleading title.

I fully expected this thread to be about his jock.

[full circle]

He's got Scott boras laughing at him too.

[70runner]

Stats are fun for some speculating, but just watching this guy hit suggests he is virtually lost at the plate.  Hitting him 3rd or 4th is frankly silly and reminiscent of Scioscia/Abreu. 

[ettin]

Stats are fun for some speculating, but just watching this guy hit suggests he is virtually lost at the plate.  Hitting him 3rd or 4th is frankly silly and reminiscent of Scioscia/Abreu. 

Well that was the main point I was trying to make about his pitch recognition on off speed stuff especially sinkers and changeups. If he can't adjust we are in trouble. He has been unlucky this year and has been the victim of the defensive shift but as I said a lot points to his pitch recognition skills.

 

If he fixes or at least moves back towards that then he'll be more like what we expected. However I don't think he'll ever get back to being what he was before 2012.

[fan_since79]

It's August 6th and he's hitting .219. 

 

Around .188 for the last three weeks.

[Angel Oracle]

I just hope he can be close enough to 2012 in 2014 and 2015. Then they can trade him and eat half of the remaining salary for 2016 and 2017.

I hate that he may force trading of Bourjos or Calhoun.

I want to see a Trout/Bourjos/Calhoun OF in 2014. Good defense and hitting

[Angel Oracle]

Is it being hurt causing the bad hitting?

Is it trying too hard for a new team, like with Don Baylor in 1977?

Is it a permanent and huge decline?

[ettin]

Is it being hurt causing the bad hitting?

Is it trying too hard for a new team, like with Don Baylor in 1977?

Is it a permanent and huge decline?

It really could be all of those.

 

The article was not a defense of Hamilton but more of focusing on the real main issue which is his pitch recognition. If he fixes that he can fix a lot of things. He should have some type of minor bounce back just based on some of the BABIP issues I discussed but he will only have a real true bounce back if he is able to adjust to the off speed stuff.