AngelsWin Today: 2024 Los Angeles Angels Player Predictions, Part One: The Hitters

[Rollinghard]

11 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

I'll take the under on Rendon. 

^^Likewise.

I will also take the under on Adell. And the over on Ward. He has been above average player with flashes of greatness. He may be the spark plug that fires up the team. .293/.345/.457 29 HR.  Adell and Moniak have been average with flashes of a dumpster fire. 

[Angelsjunky]

19 hours ago, Second Base said:

 

I love the O'Hoppe prediction. I'll take an .850.OPS from my catcher any day of the week. 

As for the rest of it, I have very little confidence in Taylor Ward's full recovery. It has nothing to do with him, and everything to due with the fragility of the human brain. And because of that, and the inconsistency surrounding Moniak and Adell, and the likelihood of missed time from Trout and Rendon, I think there needs to be a definitive direction of this team. 

So they intend to compete for a playoff spot? If so, then they'll need a solid middle of the order corner outfielder at minimum. If they intend to allow the youngsters to develop and to rebuild the farm, then they need to be willing to trade assets like Drury, Rengifo and Ward if he has value for prospects. 

I think the biggest mistake they can make here is doing the "in between" as they've done for a decade plus, which is neither complete or rebuild. And I get the feeling that's exactly what's going to happen. 

Trout, Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel will be bright spots. 

I hear you on Ward - and have my doubts as well. But we can hope, right?

As for a "solid middle of the order corner outfielder," as I said to BTH, I'm not sure who that could be. The options are sparse, pretty much only Bellinger. Now give Arte's track record, Bellinger for 8/$200M (at least) is exactly the type of move I'd expect the Angels to make, but I'm hoping against it. After that, who is there? Jorge Soler? He bounced back a bit last year (.250/.341/.512, 126 wRC+) but is 32 and his previous three years were all around 100 wRC+. He's now five years removed from that 48 HR, 136 wRC+ season.

As I said above, I'd rather they take a flier on someone like Austin Meadows or Kyle Lewis on a cheapish one-year "prove it" deal, and go with depth in the outfield over someone with the a MOTO patina or the long-term risk of Bellinger. A trade would require giving up more valuable assets like Rengifo. So go with Trout, Ward, Adell, Moniak and a depth guy and how that three of five of them are healthy and productive. We still might end up seeing Cabbage or Adams, but that's probably inevitable anyways.

 

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I hear you on Ward - and have my doubts as well. But we can hope, right?

As for a "solid middle of the order corner outfielder," as I said to BTH, I'm not sure who that could be. The options are sparse, pretty much only Bellinger. Now give Arte's track record, Bellinger for 8/$200M (at least) is exactly the type of move I'd expect the Angels to make, but I'm hoping against it. After that, who is there? Jorge Soler? He bounced back a bit last year (.250/.341/.512, 126 wRC+) but is 32 and his previous three years were all around 100 wRC+. He's now five years removed from that 48 HR, 136 wRC+ season.

As I said above, I'd rather they take a flier on someone like Austin Meadows or Kyle Lewis on a cheapish one-year "prove it" deal, and go with depth in the outfield over someone with the a MOTO patina or the long-term risk of Bellinger. A trade would require giving up more valuable assets like Rengifo. So go with Trout, Ward, Adell, Moniak and a depth guy and how that three of five of them are healthy and productive. We still might end up seeing Cabbage or Adams, but that's probably inevitable anyways.

 

Couple options, the first being Teoscar. He's not perfect, but he is a MOTO bat and corner OF. 

Outside the box thinking, maybe go get Rhys Hoskins to play 1B and put Schanuel in the outfield. 

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Couple options, the first being Teoscar. He's not perfect, but he is a MOTO bat and corner OF. 

Outside the box thinking, maybe go get Rhys Hoskins to play 1B and put Schanuel in the outfield. 

i like both of these options, but i think it all depends on ward and his recovery from being beaned in the face. 

[Docwaukee]

Nice job @Angelsjunky.  I like optimism season.  

Just want to point out where a lot of ground gets made up.  Lamb, Fletcher, Okey, Soto, Grichuk, Velazquez, Padlo, Phillips, Paris, Cron, Cabbage, Moustakas, Walsh, Adams and Escobar.  

1297 PA  and -5.0 WAR.  

Number of PA from guys still on the roster that could contribute

3517 PA and 12.9 WAR.  (.0036679 WAR per PA)

So that's 21% of the team's PA being dreadfully awful.  

That WAR rate per PA is actually pretty reasonable if they add some additional depth AND we don't get ravaged by injuries again.  But let's drop the additional decimal places and call it .003/PA which is a shade under a 2 WAR player for a full season.  

6200 PA - 3500 PA = 2700 PA x .003 = 8.1 WAR.  

So with some health and savvy depth moves, a 21 WAR offense.  Which would have ranked 12th in 2023.  And that's not assuming a ton of improvement from the young guys.  Essentially, the guys currently on the team have worked at that pace when out there.  They just need to be out there.  

It's better than I expected and I would like to direct everyone to the Minnesota Twins of 2023 as a comp.  Not a single player with a WAR in the 3's, and 15 guys with a WAR above 0.7.  Overall they were the 10th best for position players.  

[stormngt]

On 1/2/2024 at 12:55 PM, Michael ANGEL Towers said:

I always felt Pujols had one more MVP season in him after signing in Anaheim. I feel Trout should consider makeing a small adjustment to his approach and swing to show his full skill set as a hitter. 

Dont go for HR every at bat.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Great read, very informative, keep up the Great work AJ!!!

I tend to be a glass half full person. When you look at what's changing again "The voice Coaching Staff". And it's probably going to be a good visit to the cages and b fields in SPT to see who is working on what during BP and in games..

I would love all of those projections. However, not every player responds that quickly to coaching or changes in philosophy.

[AngelStew43]

I’ll take the over, on everyone except Rengifo, I think that his power numbers are a bit high.  I also think that the games played numbers, specifically for the OF’ers are a bit low.  This team is overdue for some good health.

[tdawg87]

Rengifo will do his usual thing where he starts off hitting like .219 with a bunch of errors. We'll put him in every fan-made trade package and then he'll bat like .400 in July and then we'll forget how valuable he is, again.

There's a reason a lot of teams want him. He's one of those "2 WAR" guys doc and IP talk about. But there's potential for more.

[Hubs]

I highly doubt this is the team going into spring training. IT has been a sloooooow winter, but I agree with the majority of your projections.

I disagree with two or three key points.

1) Rengifo as a starter. He's too versatile in that he's a bad defender at nearly every position, but seemingly can play them. Drury is the starter at 2nd as of now. As of now the DH will be a rotation between Trout, Adell, Rendon, Drury and Rengifo. So...he doesn't quite have that power or that number of games.

2) Moniak is better than you think and due to the open DH spot he will get into more games in the OF.

3) O'Hoppe is going to more be the guy he was for the 36 games you listed as good stats (the 16 game start and the 20 game finish). So I would bump him up to the Angels 2nd highest WAR player behind Trout.

 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Team likely gonna suck something fierce.  But man wouldn’t it be great to somehow win the whole thing and have Ohtani sitting in Dodgerland missing out?