AngelsWin Today: 2024 Los Angeles Angels Player Predictions, Part One: The Hitters

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

It is probably too early for this, but I'm bored and what else are we going to discuss? Here's what I expect to see from the current team so far - at least the regulars. My predictions tend to be what I see as reasonable optimism, although this is partially in contrast to the everything-went-wrong fiasco that was the 2023 season. When considering playing time and injury, I'm treating each player individually, that is, in a vacuum; chances are, more games will be missed by some of the starters. 

C LOGAN O'HOPPE (24)

2023 Stats: 51 games, .236/.296/.500, 14 HR, 113 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

There's a before and after for O'Hoppe. Before his injury, he hit .283/.339/.547 with a 137 wRC+ in 16 games; after he hit .217/.279/.481 with a 102 wRC+ in 35 games. But even that can be split up:  .145/.217/.291 with a 35 wRC+ in his first 15 games back, and .270/.325/.622 with a 152 wRC+ in his last 20 games.

So who is the "real" Logan O'Hoppe? I'm pretty bullish on him and think he's going to be one of the ten or so best catchers in baseball as soon as 2024. My lone complaint is that I'd like to see him take more walks. For his first few years in the minors (2018-21), his BB% was in the 7-8% range; in 2022, it doubled to 15.7% (70 walks in 104 games). In the majors so far, it has been back down to 7.4%. Presumably he'll eventually be somewhere in-between.

Anyhow, in 2023 the top two catchers by WAR were William Contreras (5.4) and Adley Rutschman (5.1), followed by four in the 4.1 to 4.7 range. After that there's a drop, with nine in the 2.0 to 2.8 range. My guess is that O'Hoppe splits the difference between two groups and finishes in the 3-4ish range, with 4-5 upside in peak years. But even if he becomes more of a 2-3 WAR player, he has a chance to become the best all-time Angels catcher by WAR before he reaches free agency (to be fair, that isn't saying much, with Bob Boone being the all-time leader with 13.1 WAR).

2024 Prediction: 113 games, .263/.337/.518, 23 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.1 WAR

1B NOLAN SCHANUEL (22)

2023 Stats: 29 games, .275/.402/.330, 112 wRC+, 0.1 WAR

Schanuel is one of the most unusual hitters in baseball. He walks a ton, but has virtually no power (1 HR, 3 2B in 30 hits last year), mainly due to an over-cutting swing that generates a lot of ground balls. I think he'll eventually develop at least low-average power (25-30 2B, 10-15 HR) to go along with a .290+ BA and 100+ walks. In other words, a poor man's Wade Boggs, though won't have the benefit of the Green Monster to bounce doubles off of. He might be slated to start the year in AAA, but I think will be the starting first baseman well before the All-Star break. With that OBP, he could end up being the most unconventional lead-off man the Angels have had since Brian Downing.

2024 Prediction: 110 games, .284/.407/.390, 7 HR, 124 wRC+, 2.0 WAR

2B LUIS RENGIFO (27)

2023: 126 games, .264/.339/.444, 16 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.9 WAR

Of all the players that I was concerned might be traded this offseason, Rengifo topped the list for me. He seemed to have a micro-breakthrough in the second half of 2022, hitting .267/.290/.455. After a slow start in 2023 (.219/.312/.326 in the first half), he exploded in the second half (.318/.374/.587). Now it could be that Rengifo is just a slow starter, and certainly I don't expect him to reach those numbers over a full season, but...I think he's going to take a big step forward in 2024 and, like O'Hoppe, be in the 5-10ish range for his position. But he's a guy to watch early on: if he starts strong, he could be even better than I'm predicting.

2024 Prediction: 143 games, .274/.348/.487, 23 HR, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

SS ZACH NETO (23)

2023: 84 games, .225/.308/.377, 9 HR, 89 wRC+, 1.1 WAR

A bright spot early on, Neto impressed with his all-out play. He really seems to embody the notion of "spark-plug" - a guy who just brings life to the team, in the batter's box, on the base paths and, most of all, in the field where he was stellar. Some have compared him to Dustin Pedroia and David Eckstein; I think, when he finally reaches his potential, he'll be somewhere in-between the two. For next year, I expect better numbers than 2023, if only because his season will (hopefully) not be interrupted by a long injury layover, but Neto also seems to be the type of player who will miss time, due to his hard play. 

2024 Prediction: 133 games, .267/.328/.422, 14 HR, 105 wRC+, 2.7 WAR

3B ANTHONY RENDON (34)

2023: 43 games, .236/.361/.318, 95 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

What a disaster. Sorry, homers, but you're not a "hater" if you simply point out the obvious: Rendon hasn't been able to stay on the field the last three years (148 games all told), and when he has he hasn't been good. The pattern seems to be: start rusty and slow, get going and hot, get hurt and miss more time than expected, rinse and repeat. The thin slivers of hope are that A) He hasn't played much over the last four seasons, so has less wear-and-tear than a 33-34 year old normally has; and B) he has hit well once he throws off the rust. So maybe he has something left in the tank, but...Anyhow, I'll split the difference between "homerish optimism" and "more of the same."

2024 Prediction: 100 games, .271/.374/.420, 15 HR, 118 wRC+, 2.3 WAR

LF TAYLOR WARD (30)

2023: 97 games, .253/.335/.421, 14 HR, 107 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

For about a month and change in 2022, Taylor Ward looked like a breakthrough superstar. Then he crashed into a wall and was out for awhile. When he came back he didn't look the same, though gradually heated up and finished the year strong. Going into 2023, I had a lot of hope that he had had a legit breakthrough, but Ward's 2023 was another disappointment among many for the Angels, and just as he seemed to be finding his groove (a 197 wRC+ in his last 14 games), he was hit in the face by a 92-mph Alex Manoah sinker. It is anyone's guess how he'll come back. There's a non-zero chance that he will never comfortably stand in a batter's box again and/or that his vision will be compromised. As far as I know, there's been little news about his recovery other than the usual baseballspeak. He could put it all together and be the star player he's flashed for parts of the last two years, or end up as a charity-case bench player. To quote Fox Mulder, I want to believe.

2024 Prediction: 118 games, .274/.357/.491, 20 HR, 128 wRC+, 2.8 WAR

CF MIKE TROUT (32)

2023: 82 games, .263/.367/.490, 18 HR, 134 wRC+, 3.0 WAR

For the first month of 2023, Trout looked like Trout, hitting .320/.408/.612 with a 176 wRC+ through his first 26 games. Then for the next six weeks or so, he went through the worst such span of time of his career, hitting .199/.318/.351 (85 wRC+) from April 30 to June 16. He finally seemed to shake it off, hitting .340/.441/.680 (203 wRC+). June 17 until July 3 when he...broke his hand on a contact-less swing?! Only the Angels and, unfortunately, only Trout. After putting together what was arguably the best first eight full seasons in baseball history, Trout has been a shell of his former self the last four years, mostly due to a string of injuries that has seen him miss over half of all Angels games over the last three seasons.  Or to put it another way, from 2012-19 he was (70.6 WAR) was 50% better than the next guy (Buster Posey with 47.0 WAR); from 2020-23, he has been the 29th best player, producing 58% (13.8 WAR) of the leader during that span (Aaron Judge with 23.6 WAR)

I suppose the silver lining is that each injury has been different and mostly random; so it isn't like he has a bad knee or some other chronic injury (well, aside for that weird back condition). He just seems to have a knack for injury and, quite frankly, there's no reason to expect that to change. Still, there's also no reason to think that with a player of his talent and due to the freakish nature of his injuries, he can't put together a few reasonably health seasons in, if not 2012-19 form, something not far from it. I do think he bounces back, but it will be at a slightly lower level than what we've seen in his prime.

2024 Prediction: 128 games, .281/.393/.577, 34 HR, 163 wRC+, 6.5 WAR

RF JO ADELL (25)

2023: 17 games, .207/.258/.448, 86 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

The good news is that Adell seemed to improve in the ways that he needed to improve - he took more walks and played better defense. The bad news is that it was in AAA. More bad news is that, like everyone else, he got hurt and then only played 17 games in Anaheim. At 25 in April, he's no longer young; but he also isn't old. To some extent there's still the sense that Adell will either be a star or a bust, but I think more likely is that he's somewhere in-between, maybe something like Hunter Renfroe. He seems to really want it and will keep working to improve his game. But it is really coming down to a place where its now or never. 

2024 Prediction: 110 games, .252/.301/.493, 23 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.8 WAR

DH BRANDON DRURY (31)

2023: 125 games, .262/.306/.497, 26 HR, 114 wRC+, 2.5 WAR

Drury was one of the only bright spots for the Angels, and probably the only acquisition that actually turned out as hoped. He pretty much continued where he left off from 2022; now, averaging 2.8 WAR over the last two seasons, he's pretty much the definition of "quality regular." What you see is what you get. If the Angels are out of it in July, he's a likely trade candidate.

2024 Prediction: 130 games, .260/.315/.490, 27 HR, 118 wRC+, 2.0 WAR

OF MICKEY MONIAK (26)

2023: 85 games, .280/.307/.495, 14 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Moniak seemed like he had finally found his first round potential in the first half, but there was a lingering concerning as he didn't walk. At all. He finished the year with an ungainly 9 walks to 113 strikeouts, which doesn't bode well for the future. But even after his midseason slump, he started hitting again; so he seems like a feast-or-famine guy, who will get hot for spells. On paper, he looks like a good platoon player or 4th outfielder, but this is a bit tricky with such a streaky player. But he'll be in the mix with the rest of the questionable cast of characters that will be the Angels outfield, and will get playing time. That said, he's the only player among the ten on this list that I predict will be worse in 2024 than in 2023.

2024 Prediction: 90 games, .250/.280/.442, 12 HR, 100 wRC+, 0.8 WAR

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[Chuck]

Solid predictions, @Angelsjunky. I hope we get most of those to come true.

Though I feel Moniak is going to build off his breakout 2023 season. Just a hunch. 

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Solid predictions, @Angelsjunky. I hope we get most of those to come true.

Though I feel Moniak is going to build off his breakout 2023 season. Just a hunch. 

I hope you're right, Chuck. 

The approach I take is just eye-balling and going by my gut. If "5" is best-case scenario and "1" is disaster, with "3" being moderate, I tend to go in the 3.5 to 4 range, depending upon the player. But again, entirely subjective.

Even if all of my predictions are "reasonably optimistic," chances are one or two have even better years (fingers crossed on a Trout Renaissance) and several are significantly below. Just how the cookie crumbles.

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I hope you're right, Chuck. 

The approach I take is just eye-balling and going by my gut. If "5" is best-case scenario and "1" is disaster, with "3" being moderate, I tend to go in the 3.5 to 4 range, depending upon the player. But again, entirely subjective.

Even if all of my predictions are "reasonably optimistic," chances are one or two have even better years (fingers crossed on a Trout Renaissance) and several are significantly below. Just how the cookie crumbles.

Other than some wishing on Adell, you're not guilty of being overly optimistic, and lets be real if he makes any sort of consistent contact he will be productive because the dude absolutely murders baseballs..

Anyway, the Steamer projections for the top 8 hitters look like this 

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Mike Trout	630	.259	.354	.511	.366	25.0	-0.7	-4.1	4.1
Zach Neto	609	.250	.318	.419	.320	0.6	-0.6	-1.2	2.6
Anthony Rendon	574	.256	.352	.422	.339	9.7	-1.0	-3.1	2.5
Luis Rengifo	609	.261	.322	.434	.326	3.7	-0.1	-2.5	2.4
Taylor Ward	595	.263	.346	.449	.345	12.8	-0.9	-1.6	2.4
Logan O'Hoppe	426	.251	.329	.463	.340	7.5	-1.1	-10.9	1.6
Nolan Schanuel	490	.258	.363	.406	.339	8.3	-1.1	0.3	1.5
Brandon Drury	581	.249	.301	.448	.320	0.9	-1.9	-0.1	0.9

They clearly are looking for Drury to show some regression but they legitimately have 8 players capable of 2 fWAR. Comparing your "eye-balling" to what FG's system is putting out, nobody can really argue you're going overboard with optimism.

Adell is the biggest wildcard IMO but, I don't think it's unrealistic to think he and Moniak could combine for another 2 fWAR.

They key like always will be adding the depth pieces, they need an IF, OF, and a reliable SP.  I get the feeling they will roll the dice with the pen.

[BTH]

If the Angels get this production from the position players, they should have a good season overall.

A few of these seem unlikely or optimistic, but they’re not unrealistic. The thing is, I can see any of the players reaching those projections on their own. But for all of them to do it feels unrealistic.

The upside is there, we’ll see how much of it they can reach. And, as always, a lot of it is based on health.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Other than some wishing on Adell, you're not guilty of being overly optimistic, and lets be real if he makes any sort of consistent contact he will be productive because the dude absolutely murders baseballs..

Anyway, the Steamer projections for the top 8 hitters look like this 

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Mike Trout	630	.259	.354	.511	.366	25.0	-0.7	-4.1	4.1
Zach Neto	609	.250	.318	.419	.320	0.6	-0.6	-1.2	2.6
Anthony Rendon	574	.256	.352	.422	.339	9.7	-1.0	-3.1	2.5
Luis Rengifo	609	.261	.322	.434	.326	3.7	-0.1	-2.5	2.4
Taylor Ward	595	.263	.346	.449	.345	12.8	-0.9	-1.6	2.4
Logan O'Hoppe	426	.251	.329	.463	.340	7.5	-1.1	-10.9	1.6
Nolan Schanuel	490	.258	.363	.406	.339	8.3	-1.1	0.3	1.5
Brandon Drury	581	.249	.301	.448	.320	0.9	-1.9	-0.1	0.9

They clearly are looking for Drury to show some regression but they legitimately have 8 players capable of 2 fWAR. Comparing your "eye-balling" to what FG's system is putting out, nobody can really argue you're going overboard with optimism.

Adell is the biggest wildcard IMO but, I don't think it's unrealistic to think he and Moniak could combine for another 2 fWAR.

They key like always will be adding the depth pieces, they need an IF, OF, and a reliable SP.  I get the feeling they will roll the dice with the pen.

I didn't even look at Steamer or ZiPs, but aren't they almost always low-ball? If mine are "3.5" out of 5, theirs seem to be 2 to 2.5. I mean, if Trout is at all healthy, he'll blow that projection out of the water. I also think Schanuel will hit significantly higher than .258. The others all looks like what I'd predict if I was in a worse mood.

Can't blame them for rolling the dice on the pen. Constructing a good bullpen must be one of the hardest things to do, as far as roster management.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, BTH said:

If the Angels get this production from the position players, they should have a good season overall.

A few of these seem unlikely or optimistic, but they’re not unrealistic. The thing is, I can see any of the players reaching those projections on their own. But for all of them to do it feels unrealistic.

The upside is there, we’ll see how much of it they can reach. And, as always, a lot of it is based on health.

Yes, exactly - I tried to say just that in the intro and to my follow-up reply to Chuck. I think one or two (or, if we're lucky, three) have better years than I prediction, but more have worse. The projections are taken in a vacuum.

[T.G.]

"Just wait...."

     - Jo

[Stradling]

I like it AJ, my opinion of your predictions kind of falls in line with @BTH’s post.  All of those players are capable of doing that, but for all of them to do that will be challenging.  None of those numbers look unrealistic, except maybe Rendon or Adell. The offense is still lacking a power bat to put up there with Trout.  I hope it can be Adell.  As for Steamer, I can’t imagine looking at O’Hoppe  or Schanuel and think they are sub 2 WAR guys, same with Drury.  If Rengifo puts up a year like you are projecting AJ, maybe that will shut up his haters once and for all.  Guys like him, Ward and Sandoval are the whipping boys of our fanbase on Social Media.  

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I like it AJ, my opinion of your predictions kind of falls in line with @BTH’s post.  All of those players are capable of doing that, but for all of them to do that will be challenging.  None of those numbers look unrealistic, except maybe Rendon or Adell. The offense is still lacking a power bat to put up there with Trout.  I hope it can be Adell.  As for Steamer, I can’t imagine looking at O’Hoppe  or Schanuel and think they are sub 2 WAR guys, same with Drury.  If Rengifo puts up a year like you are projecting AJ, maybe that will shut up his haters once and for all.  Guys like him, Ward and Sandoval are the whipping boys of our fanbase on Social Media.  

Agreed. 

Schanuel won't have too high of a WAR due to him playing 1B and, of course, the lack of power. Fangraphs' WAR didn't like O'Hoppe's defense last year - let's hoppe that's just small sample size and/or breaking into the big leagues.

[Inside Pitch]

I say it all the time.  People love their franchise players but if a team can get 2 fWAR out of every spot in the lineup they will be a solid or better offensive team.   Avoid the black holes in the lineip and get a bench that combines for 3-4 fWAR and you're going to win games.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I say it all the time.  People love their franchise players but if a team can get 2 fWAR out of every spot in the lineup they will be a solid or better offensive team.   Avoid the black holes in the lineip and get a bench that combines for 3-4 fWAR and you're going to win games.

Yea, and I am not even talking about a franchise player to play along Trout, I was more thinking about just a dude with power. I hate the idea of bringing on a DH only guy, but Martinez would be a nice addition. 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I say it all the time.  People love their franchise players but if a team can get 2 fWAR out of every spot in the lineup they will be a solid or better offensive team.   Avoid the black holes in the lineip and get a bench that combines for 3-4 fWAR and you're going to win games.

Evidence:

The 2002 had no real superstars - just a bunch of good players - guys from solid regulars to borderline stars. Note the lack of "black holes"....just Nieves and Fabregas were significantly below replacement level, and they only contributed 196 PA, or a total of -1.3 negative WAR from 215 PA. Compare that to some of the recent teams: In 2023 the Angels got -5.0 WAR from about 1100 PA worth of players; or in 2022, it was even worse: -7.1 WAR from about 2,000 PA. That means about a third of PA were from below replacement performers.

 

 

[BTH]

11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I say it all the time.  People love their franchise players but if a team can get 2 fWAR out of every spot in the lineup they will be a solid or better offensive team.   Avoid the black holes in the lineip and get a bench that combines for 3-4 fWAR and you're going to win games.

I think they need to add two, in a perfect world three, solid position players. At least one outfielder and one infielder.

That’d give you:

C; O’Hoppe/Thaiss

INF: Schanuel/Drury/Rendon/Neto/Rengifo/FA

OF: Ward/Trout/OF/Moniak/Adell

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, BTH said:

I think they need to add two, in a perfect world three, solid position players. At least one outfielder and one infielder.

That’d give you:

C; O’Hoppe/Thaiss

INF: Schanuel/Drury/Rendon/Neto/Rengifo/FA

OF: Ward/Trout/OF/Moniak/Adell

I agree, with the caveat that "solid position player" could just be good, reliable platoon types. I mean, someone like Maicer Izturis or the good version of Brian Goodwin. The operative phrase is: "quality depth."

The point being, I don't see an obvious position to upgrade - not with who they have. 

The problem is that they already have four major league outfielders, so either they upgrade by trading someone (Adell or Moniak) or they try to find a minor league clean peanut. Similarly with the IF: Neto and Schanuel are here no matter what; hopefully Rengifo, too. They need a back-up middle infielder and a plan for when Rendon gets hurt.

This is where having a shitty farm really hurts - typically you'd have guys to try out in case of injury. Unfortunately I don't think that's Jordyn Adams and Kyren Paris was called up way too soon (maybe second half this year). In other words, they need OF and IF versions of Francisco Mejia. 

I forgot about Livan Soto. He actually could be our Maicer Izturis, in a best-case scenario.

 

[Michael ANGEL Towers]

I always felt Pujols had one more MVP season in him after signing in Anaheim. I feel Trout should consider makeing a small adjustment to his approach and swing to show his full skill set as a hitter. 

[Inside Pitch]

52 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea, and I am not even talking about a franchise player to play along Trout, I was more thinking about just a dude with power. I hate the idea of bringing on a DH only guy, but Martinez would be a nice addition. 

I wasn't aiming at anyone in particular or even Angel fans.  People just obsess over having stars and gloss over how good a team full of 2 WAR players are. Avoiding black holes is key, it's the thing the Angels have failed at consistently the last ten years.

 

43 minutes ago, BTH said:

I think they need to add two, in a perfect world three, solid position players. At least one outfielder and one infielder.

This has been my position from day one.  They need insurance for the Adell/Moniak situation -- that could be a black hole.  They need insurance in the IF period.  We don't know what 1B yet, we can't expect Rendon to be healthy.  

That DH spot needs to be fluid IMO in case Adell/Moniak breakout/improve. 

[BTH]

36 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The problem is that they already have four major league outfielders, so either they upgrade by trading someone (Adell or Moniak) or they try to find a minor league clean peanut.

I’d prefer to add a starting OF, push Moniak to 4th OF, and Adell to 5th OF.

With as many injuries as this team has had, I’m not worried about having 14 or 15 position players for 13 spots— something will happen to clear space.

No one saw Stassi and Walsh having non-baseball issues in Spring Training last year. Stuff happens out of nowhere.

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The point being, I don't see an obvious position to upgrade - not with who they have.

IMO, RF is that position.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

That DH spot needs to be fluid IMO in case Adell/Moniak breakout/improve. 

I see the argument for that, but I’d rather add someone and start with them as the 4th & 5th outfielders rather than hand them playing time.

Especially with Trout and Ward coming back from injuries and Adell/Moniak being uncertain commodities already.

Edited January 2 by BTH

[tdawg87]

I would like to bring Urshela back. He's like a more reliable Fletcher.

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, BTH said:

I see the argument for that, but I’d rather add someone and start with them as the 4th & 5th outfielders rather than hand them playing time.

Especially with Trout and Ward coming back from injuries and Adell/Moniak being uncertain commodities already.

I don't care who they put where.  They just need to safeguard against injury or a failure to launch with Moniak and Adell.

DH just needs to be fluid.

[Tank]

good job, @Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, BTH said:

I’d prefer to add a starting OF, push Moniak to 4th OF, and Adell to 5th OF.

With as many injuries as this team has had, I’m not worried about having 14 or 15 position players for 13 spots— something will happen to clear space.

No one saw Stassi and Walsh having non-baseball issues in Spring Training last year. Stuff happens out of nowhere.

IMO, RF is that position.

Sure, if there was someone available, but the only clear upgrade in the OF is Bellinger, and he's too expensive (and risky). I'd rather go with Adell/Moniak, and maybe get some minor league depth, or possibly a dice roll on someone like Kyle Lewis or Austin Meadows as a platoon option.

[Second Base]

 

I love the O'Hoppe prediction. I'll take an .850.OPS from my catcher any day of the week. 

As for the rest of it, I have very little confidence in Taylor Ward's full recovery. It has nothing to do with him, and everything to due with the fragility of the human brain. And because of that, and the inconsistency surrounding Moniak and Adell, and the likelihood of missed time from Trout and Rendon, I think there needs to be a definitive direction of this team. 

So they intend to compete for a playoff spot? If so, then they'll need a solid middle of the order corner outfielder at minimum. If they intend to allow the youngsters to develop and to rebuild the farm, then they need to be willing to trade assets like Drury, Rengifo and Ward if he has value for prospects. 

I think the biggest mistake they can make here is doing the "in between" as they've done for a decade plus, which is neither complete or rebuild. And I get the feeling that's exactly what's going to happen. 

Trout, Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel will be bright spots. 

[Erstad Grit]

I'll take the under on Rendon.