26 wins

[Inside Pitch]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

There are three areas, or at least three controllable areas (not counting luck/fate):

Health: I know, not fully controllable, but it isn't entirely outside of control, either. Trout needs to get on the phone with Novak Djokovic and find out some yoga moves and perhaps whatever alchemical concoctions Novak is drinking. Add in Rendon and Ward and the Angels got 222 games from those three, or an average of 74 games. That needs to improve, and almost certainly will. 222 games of Trout-Rendon-Ward yielded 4.7 WAR. With positive regression from all three and more games played, even just 350 games could give them 10+ WAR. The Angels were beyond even the worst-case reasonable scenario last year, so even if they still have injury issues in 2024, chances are it won't be nearly as bad. Meaning, they gain an easy 5 wins just through not having the worst injury-plagued season of all time, but the range starts there and could be +5 to 15 wins.

Player Development: Here's the good news: A larger number of Angels players are on the ascending arc: Neto, O'Hoppe, Schanuel, Moniak, Adell, Silseth, Detmers, even still Rengifo and Canning. Chances are there is overall improvement from this group. So again, a baseline +5 wins but with range being something like +5-10 wins.

Player Acquisitions: Many focus on this, and while it is obviously important, it is just one of three big areas of possible improvement - and I think probably less impactful than the other two. They need another starter or two and depth all around. +0-10 wins.

So a baseline of +10 wins from better health (it really can't be that bad again) and modest player development. But that is negated by the loss of Ohtani. 

So by my account, that's +10-30ish games...quite a range. Take away Ohtani and, at worst, they're around the same place, in the 70-75 win range. At best and they can win 90+, but...this is where luck/fate comes in, and the simple fact that they need someone to step forward and have a breakout/comeback year - and probably several players. Meaning, they really need Trout to return to being vaguely Trout-esque. They need one of Ward or Rendon to return to a better form of themselves and stay healthy. They need two or three of the young guys to grow up fast and be impact players. They need one or two of Sandoval, Detmers, Canning and Silseth to do more than be an erratic #3-4 and solidify as a strong #2. And they need some help from the outside.

aaaaaand....

[angelsfan100]

[Erstad Grit]

My goodness if Rendon could just not suck that would help so much.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

aaaaaand....

[Make Angels Great Again]

First off, is going by WAR truly a good way to predict how many games we will win?

 

The Angels had 27.5 WAR as a team in 2023 and they won, as you said 73 games.

The Orioles for example, had 41.3 WAR as a team, and they won 101 games. So the difference of 14 WAR resulted in 28 more wins.

I don't think we need as much as you think.

[Angelsjunky]

16 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

First off, is going by WAR truly a good way to predict how many games we will win?

 

The Angels had 27.5 WAR as a team in 2023 and they won, as you said 73 games.

The Orioles for example, had 41.3 WAR as a team, and they won 101 games. So the difference of 14 WAR resulted in 28 more wins.

I don't think we need as much as you think.

It is a short-hand estimate. And really, the above implies that the Orioles over-achieved and are probably more of a 85-90 win team with their current roster (their Pythagorean record had them at 94-68). There's always some flex, but WAR gives a baseline of expected performance (and I believe it is 45 wins + WAR = expected record, or something like that...so it predicted the Angels quite well).

Take the Philadelphia Eagles. I noticed a couple weeks ago when they were 10-1 that their point differential was rather low: they were winning most games by very close margins. Since then they've lost the last two games.

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

First off, is going by WAR truly a good way to predict how many games we will win?

 

The Angels had 27.5 WAR as a team in 2023 and they won, as you said 73 games.

The Orioles for example, had 41.3 WAR as a team, and they won 101 games. So the difference of 14 WAR resulted in 28 more wins.

I don't think we need as much as you think.

agreed.  my estimate is just back of the napkin.  the team was bad and they lost their best player.  In the real world, timing matters.  WAR tries to neutralize that.  

but...the Angels and Bmore had similar WAR from their starting staff.  That 14 war difference came from offense (primarily in the second half), and the bullpen.  In fact half of it came from the pen.  

Texas is an interesting example.  They outslugged their pen deficiencies.   Typically, you can't be god awful in any one particular category unless you're absolutely lights out in another.  

The 73 wins from the halos last year is skewed because of the meltdown in the final two months.  

While they deserved to be that bad, I think they're starting point for 2024 is better than a 73 win team even without Ohtani.  

[CaliAngel]

I think "hoping for health" should be immediately thrown out, because as we've seen this past decade, it just can't be relied on in this organization. 

Last year we were somewhere around the top in MLB of paying for players who weren't actually playing due to injuries. 

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

I think "hoping for health" should be immediately thrown out, because as we've seen this past decade, it just can't be relied on in this organization. 

Last year we were somewhere around the top in MLB of paying for players who weren't actually playing due to injuries. 

If that's the case then the Angels have no chance, so might as well throw out all hope. They cannot possibly add the players they would need to make up for an average of 72 games from Trout, Rendon, and Ward (those three especially) - especially Trout. 

And it isn't about relying on it, but pointing out that without improved health, there's little chance of competing.

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

agreed.  my estimate is just back of the napkin. 

Fun fact: The book The Hobbit was first conceived when JRR Tolkien had a random thought which he wrote down on a napkin: In a hole in the ground there lived a hobbit.

[HaloBronco]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

There are three areas, or at least three controllable areas (not counting luck/fate):

Health: I know, not fully controllable, but it isn't entirely outside of control, either. Trout needs to get on the phone with Novak Djokovic and find out some yoga moves and perhaps whatever alchemical concoctions Novak is drinking. Add in Rendon and Ward and the Angels got 222 games from those three, or an average of 74 games. That needs to improve, and almost certainly will. 222 games of Trout-Rendon-Ward yielded 4.7 WAR. With positive regression from all three and more games played, even just 350 games could give them 10+ WAR. The Angels were beyond even the worst-case reasonable scenario last year, so even if they still have injury issues in 2024, chances are it won't be nearly as bad. Meaning, they gain an easy 5 wins just through not having the worst injury-plagued season of all time, but the range starts there and could be +5 to 15 wins.

Player Development: Here's the good news: A larger number of Angels players are on the ascending arc: Neto, O'Hoppe, Schanuel, Moniak, Adell, Silseth, Detmers, even still Rengifo and Canning. Chances are there is overall improvement from this group. So again, a baseline +5 wins but with range being something like +5-10 wins.

Player Acquisitions: Many focus on this, and while it is obviously important, it is just one of three big areas of possible improvement - and I think probably less impactful than the other two. They need another starter or two and depth all around. +0-10 wins.

So a baseline of +10 wins from better health (it really can't be that bad again) and modest player development. But that is negated by the loss of Ohtani. 

So by my account, that's +10-30ish games...quite a range. Take away Ohtani and, at worst, they're around the same place, in the 70-75 win range. At best and they can win 90+, but...this is where luck/fate comes in, and the simple fact that they need someone to step forward and have a breakout/comeback year - and probably several players. Meaning, they really need Trout to return to being vaguely Trout-esque. They need one of Ward or Rendon to return to a better form of themselves and stay healthy. They need two or three of the young guys to grow up fast and be impact players. They need one or two of Sandoval, Detmers, Canning and Silseth to do more than be an erratic #3-4 and solidify as a strong #2. And they need some help from the outside.

 

 

Also add in the addition of what should be a Washington led coaching staff. 

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, HaloBronco said:

Also add in the addition of what should be a Washington led coaching staff. 

I should have said "intangibles (luck/fate/coaching)." One general category that we have no way of knowing sort of impact it will have.

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 hours ago, Jay said:

Hopefully Minasian has been working on a post-Ohtani plan for the last year or so.

Just in case.

 

 

[totdprods]

Get to .500 in '24, sign a big arm next winter, get back to 90+ 2025 and beyond.

[Duren, Duren]

Better/smarter in game management/coaching can be a difference maker for close games. 

Adell finally emerging as a solid power hitter. Trout and Rendon rebounding closer to their career norm. And at least being healthy. 

Continued progress by Neto, Schamuel, O'Hoppe and any upgrades via trade/free agency. 

A steady five man rotation that collectively stay in sync and improve individually  with a better pitching coach and philosophy. And a bullpen with defined roles that can be at least at league average. 

The freedom from the Ohtani soap opera and a better team focus. There will be no national spotlight on the team. And this let's them just go about their business without distractions.

Overall health has to improve. 

 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Brothers.

my outlook has changed.

[angelsfan100]

1 hour ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

First off, is going by WAR truly a good way to predict how many games we will win?

 

The Angels had 27.5 WAR as a team in 2023 and they won, as you said 73 games.

The Orioles for example, had 41.3 WAR as a team, and they won 101 games. So the difference of 14 WAR resulted in 28 more wins.

I don't think we need as much as you think.

[T.G.]

15 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Brothers.

my outlook has changed.

I would love to see Adell take a giant step forward and be a big time contributor.  That. Would. Be. Awesome.

[Adam]

I really like Adell. He works so hard. That dude is determined to succeed. It will be fun to see he, Moniak, Neto and OHoppe this year if they can all get 500+ PAs

[CaliAngel]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

I would love to see Adell take a giant step forward and be a big time contributor.  That. Would. Be. Awesome.

Never going to happen.

[Tank]

3 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

While they deserved to be that bad, I think they're starting point for 2024 is better than a 73 win team even without Ohtani.  

you're a heck of a lot more optomistic than me in a pollyanna kind of way. 

i'd be impressed and amazed if they reached 73 wins next year.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

I think "hoping for health" should be immediately thrown out, because as we've seen this past decade, it just can't be relied on in this organization. 

Last year we were somewhere around the top in MLB of paying for players who weren't actually playing due to injuries. 

Regardless, no matter who we sign in free agency, if we don’t have health we are not going anywhere.  

[Halo in Chicago]

1. Better health

2. Better luck - see also 1

3. Better coaching

4. The young pitchers growing up a little (hopefully)

5. Better situational hitting - see 3 

[Angels 1961]

3 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

Never going to happen.

He's going to be 25 and I believe it will happen. He just needs regular AB.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

It’s more likely the Angels win 26 total games this season unless someone starts spending.