Fangraphs article on Schanuel

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

also, my opinion here is not particularly important.  Just my anecdotal amateur baseball watcher observation.   

[totdprods]

Not being discussed enough here is his defense. Instinctually, he’s looked pretty good so far.

If he can become one of the better defensive 1B in the bigs, that also makes a difference in the minimum he’ll need to post offensively.

Mark Grace? Won a few GGs, .300 career batting average, never more than 17 HR in a season, doubles machine, 1075 BB to 642 K.

Edited September 2, 2023 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

19 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

If he is slow, plays a non premium defensive position and does not hit for power there is an obvious ceiling to how important a player he can be.  Even if he’s getting on base at .400 clip.  Which, ok.  That is really a huge presumption.  It would be great but in the OBP area is like a hall of fame thing.  You slipped in the 30 doubles there.  Which would be significant development from what we’re talking about regarding limited value.  He may get to the 30 doubles!  I’m not guessing one way or another whether he will.  But if that’s going to happen, the swing is probably going to have to change.  Driving the ball into the ground probably won’t work for that.  Imo.  Again tho, like I said.  If he is a useful everyday player, bringing good AB’s and OBP.  Even if it is useful in a limited way overall.  Then that’s a win for the club.

also, my opinion here is not particularly important.  Just my anecdotal amateur baseball watcher observation.   

Yeah, I get it. Chances are very slim that he's Albert Pujols or Jeff Bagwell. But...he doesn't have to be to add to the team. At this point, I'd love to see a .400 OBP in the lineup, regardless of other factors.

Of course if he hits .220 it becomes a moot point. .220 with no power and even with 100 walks gets you about .220/.350/.300, which isn't anything more than a useful pinch-hitter.

But again, I'm curious to see how this unfolds. Unique and different players are fun to watch.

[ScottT]

Definitely the next Ted Williams 

[Second Base]

I think we get caught up in the question of how productive a single player will be. For the sake of team building, that actually doesn't matter too much. Production is production, and you want it in spots one through nine in the lineup. Think if the three titles San Francisco won last decade. Outside of Posey, no superstars really. Just production, timely production. If a first baseman is less productive but you've got a super productive second baseman, then it all evens out.

Schanuel is productive and will continue to be for a long time. He's a piece of the puzzle, as is Neto. The Angels need a lot more "pieces." Ward, Trout, O'Hoppe certainly help. But the Angels will absolutely need Kyren Paris and Jo Adell to pan out if they want to have a productive lineup. 

In short, Schanuel is a piece of the puzzle. 

[Angelsjunky]

56 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think we get caught up in the question of how productive a single player will be. For the sake of team building, that actually doesn't matter too much. Production is production, and you want it in spots one through nine in the lineup. Think if the three titles San Francisco won last decade. Outside of Posey, no superstars really. Just production, timely production. If a first baseman is less productive but you've got a super productive second baseman, then it all evens out.

Schanuel is productive and will continue to be for a long time. He's a piece of the puzzle, as is Neto. The Angels need a lot more "pieces." Ward, Trout, O'Hoppe certainly help. But the Angels will absolutely need Kyren Paris and Jo Adell to pan out if they want to have a productive lineup. 

In short, Schanuel is a piece of the puzzle. 

This touches upon something I haven't quite been able to articulate, that has put a cap on my usage of WAR as a kind of absolute metric. A 5 WAR guy could hit .300/400/.550 as a DH, or .250/.320/.400, 40 SB as a Gold Glove shortstop. Are they of equal value? Maybe overall, but I'd be curious to see how simulations would look over the course of 162 games. But are they of equal value to a specific team? That depends upon the other parts of the team. And furthermore, I sometimes think that a player's offense and defense are best considered separately; by adding (or subtracting) them as one whole, it obfuscates how much they might contribute in one way. 

Schanuel potentially fulfills a very important need of the team: OBP at the top of the order. Furthermore, he changes the dynamic of the entire lineup with his patience, maybe not in a dissimilar way to Rendon, or Abreu back in the day. Schanuel slows things down; he makes pitchers (and defense) work for it. He doesn't scare anyone yet, but he's not going to give a ton of easy outs and, as I said, he's got the potential to disrupt a pitcher's rhythm by slowing things down.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[AngelsLakersFan]

I like what Ive seen from Schanuel. If he can maintain his current .429 OBP he will be an incredibly useful player. Fangraphs seems to think the plate discipline and contact are for real projecting him for a 116 wRC+ for the rest of the season.

All that being said, I think he will need to show some semblance of power if he is to maintain that type of on base skill throughout his career. Like we saw with Reggie Willits, another contact hitter who could spit on pitches off the plate, once pitchers realize they aren't going to get burned for homeruns on fastballs down the middle they will start attacking the zone. If that happens the walk rate will drop and Nolan will have to survive off of the quality of his contact.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I like what Ive seen from Schanuel. If he can maintain his current .429 OBP he will be an incredibly useful player. Fangraphs seems to think the plate discipline and contact are for real projecting him for a 116 wRC+ for the rest of the season.

All that being said, I think he will need to show some semblance of power if he is to maintain that type of on base skill throughout his career. Like we saw with Reggie Willits, another contact hitter who could spit on pitches off the plate, once pitchers realize they aren't going to get burned for homeruns on fastballs down the middle they will start attacking the zone. If that happens the walk rate will drop and Nolan will have to survive off of the quality of his contact.

You don’t have to go back to Willits for that comparison, you can just use David Fletcher. But Schanuel will hit enough doubles to be much more of a threat. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

42 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You don’t have to go back to Willits for that comparison, you can just use David Fletcher. But Schanuel will hit enough doubles to be much more of a threat. 

I originally thought of Fletcher but i think the differences are significant enough to make Willits a much better example. Fletcher's lack of plate discipline is just as big of, if not even more so of an issue than his lack of pop.

Also I don't really think of Fletcher being a big ground ball guy, and his lack of power stems from simply not hitting the ball hard anywhere. Schanuel looks like his potential lack of power will stem from a ground ball heavy batting profile. In some ways this reminds me quite a bit of Casey Kotchman, who didn't show a lot of power but he did put up great power numbers when he could get the ball in the air. Kotchman was also very advanced as a hitter at roughly the same age as Schanuel.

[HBAngel13]

One thing I hope Perry focuses on in the retooling is a reduction of the K’s. There is way too much swing and miss in this lineup. A player like Schanuel would be a huge step in balancing that out.

For those who have got a good look at him defensively, is there any chance he could defend somewhere other than 1B?  I thought I remember his college coach talking about potential for him to play 3B or even 2B.  He would be extremely valuable as a 2B with his hitting profile. Brewers used Moustakas at 2B several years ago, but that may have been facilitated by the shift.  I haven’t really seen him play the field so maybe this is a moot question…

[jsnpritchett]

4 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

One thing I hope Perry focuses on in the retooling is a reduction of the K’s. There is way too much swing and miss in this lineup. A player like Schanuel would be a huge step in balancing that out.

For those who have got a good look at him defensively, is there any chance he could defend somewhere other than 1B?  I thought I remember his college coach talking about potential for him to play 3B or even 2B.  He would be extremely valuable as a 2B with his hitting profile. Brewers used Moustakas at 2B several years ago, but that may have been facilitated by the shift.  I haven’t really seen him play the field so maybe this is a moot question…

There aren't many 6'4", 220 lb guys who've ever played 2nd base, let alone played it well (DJ LeMahieu is the only around that size that I can think of off the top of my head).  Doesn't mean it CAN'T happen, but given that they have a need at 1B and they have multiple options at 2B, I don't see why they'd even experiment with it.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

One thing I hope Perry focuses on in the retooling is a reduction of the K’s. There is way too much swing and miss in this lineup. A player like Schanuel would be a huge step in balancing that out.

For those who have got a good look at him defensively, is there any chance he could defend somewhere other than 1B?  I thought I remember his college coach talking about potential for him to play 3B or even 2B.  He would be extremely valuable as a 2B with his hitting profile. Brewers used Moustakas at 2B several years ago, but that may have been facilitated by the shift.  I haven’t really seen him play the field so maybe this is a moot question…

Kyren Paris walked 88 times in AA as a 21 year old. Yeah, he struck out a lot too (151) but that's at the very least hopefully translating to an average-to-slightly above average BB% in the bigs. 
Between he and Rengifo, there's some hope that the IF can cut back on the Ks and bump walks up in '24. I'd like to see Stefanic get a good look in September too, because he could be a big help in that regard as well.

Not just reduction of Ks, but drawing more walks would be nice too. Some of the BB:K splits between our guys this year is straight gruesome. 
Drury: 19 walks to 108 strikeouts. 
Moniak: 9 walks to 108 strikeouts. 
Moustakas: 5 walks to 49 strikeouts. 
Escobar: 7 walks to 34 strikeouts.
Neto: 12 walks to 54 strikeouts. 
O'Hoppe: 6 walks to 24 strikeouts.
Cabbage: 0 walks to 22 strikeouts in 44 PA is impressively bad.

That's bad when even friggin' Andrew Velazquez (10 walks in less than 100 PA) is close to out-walking you.

I'll obviously give Neto and O'Hoppe some grace, and Moose and Escobar won't be back next year (unless Moose is just a bench guy), but improving these rates would be huge. 

It wasn't all bad: 
Rengifo: 41 walks to 78 strikeouts has been a huge improvement. 
Ward: 39 walks to 80 strikeouts is solid. 
Rendon: 27 walks to 25 strikeouts, say what you will, but if he gives any playing time and does that it's a plus.
Trout's 45 walks to 104 strikeouts was glaringly worse, but still not horrible.
Thaiss' 35 walks to 75 strikeouts at least highlights his discipline. 
Tiniest of sample sizes, but Paris 2 BB to 0 K (even against Oakland) is a good sign from a 21-year old in his first two games, plus Schanuel's 10 BB to 6.
Stefanic also has 5 BB to 2 K.
 

Edited September 3, 2023 by totdprods

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

This touches upon something I haven't quite been able to articulate, that has put a cap on my usage of WAR as a kind of absolute metric. A 5 WAR guy could hit .300/400/.550 as a DH, or .250/.320/.400, 40 SB as a Gold Glove shortstop. Are they of equal value? Maybe overall, but I'd be curious to see how simulations would look over the course of 162 games. But are they of equal value to a specific team? That depends upon the other parts of the team. And furthermore, I sometimes think that a player's offense and defense are best considered separately; by adding (or subtracting) them as one whole, it obfuscates how much they might contribute in one way. 

Schanuel potentially fulfills a very important need of the team: OBP at the top of the order. Furthermore, he changes the dynamic of the entire lineup with his patience, maybe not in a dissimilar way to Rendon, or Abreu back in the day. Schanuel slows things down; he makes pitchers (and defense) work for it. He doesn't scare anyone yet, but he's not going to give a ton of easy outs and, as I said, he's got the potential to disrupt a pitcher's rhythm by slowing things down.

 

The whole thing is a broader indictment on the media in general and baseball's indirect obsession with prospects. I mean to get this straight....

The Angels drafted a 21 year old kid from a mid-major that needed no minor league at bats, has essentially stepped straight from college to the majors, and is immediately going to be a front runner for the on-base title....

And this isn't the biggest story in baseball? The national media has only mentioned him in the context that the Angels are aggressive and about to lose Ohtani. Why? Simple. He's playing for a losing ball club and he's a random, nondescript white guy.

And that's on the prospect pundits as well. Schanuel, the 21 year old kid that already might be the best in MLB at getting on base isn't even a top 100 prospect! They fall in love with everyone 6'4" and taller with incredible speed and strength as though this were the NFL. They never gave a crap about Altuve or Mookie simply because of their height, or what they perceived as skills. That should tell you everything you need to know right there. The whole narrative actually flies counter to what actually wins baseball games. 

Schanuel is incredible, so is Neto... And anyone that claims to care about prospects and writes about them as though they're an expert but isn't acknowledging this is completely missing the point. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

The whole thing is a broader indictment on the media in general and baseball's indirect obsession with prospects. I mean to get this straight....

The Angels drafted a 21 year old kid from a mid-major that needed no minor league at bats, has essentially stepped straight from college to the majors, and is immediately going to be a front runner for the on-base title....

And this isn't the biggest story in baseball? The national media has only mentioned him in the context that the Angels are aggressive and about to lose Ohtani. Why? Simple. He's playing for a losing ball club and he's a random, nondescript white guy.

And that's on the prospect pundits as well. Schanuel, the 21 year old kid that already might be the best in MLB at getting on base isn't even a top 100 prospect! They fall in love with everyone 6'4" and taller with incredible speed and strength as though this were the NFL. They never gave a crap about Altuve or Mookie simply because of their height, or what they perceived as skills. That should tell you everything you need to know right there. The whole narrative actually flies counter to what actually wins baseball games. 

Schanuel is incredible, so is Neto... And anyone that claims to care about prospects and writes about them as though they're an expert but isn't acknowledging this is completely missing the point. 

I think you are basically correct in that Schanuel doesn't have obvious "sexy" skills. But Adell did (does) and, well, he sucks (so far).

I don't know how good he's going to become, but he's very interesting. even if he only hits .270 with 30-40 XBH, he's probably going to walk 100 times or more a year. How many .270/.400/.380 players have there been? Not many. If he develops a bit of pop and hits .300 instead of .270, he's going to be really, really good. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Angelsjunky