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Fangraphs article on Schanuel

Angelsjunky

By Angelsjunky
in LA Angels | MLB Daily

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Angelsjunky Hall of Fame

Angelsjunky

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nolan-schanuel-an-angels-unicorn-for-the-discerning-fan/

Pretty interesting. The key points:

  • He has a very low launch angle, hitting the ball down and hard on the ground - which implies he'll mostly be a singles hitter, with a few doubles sprinkled in
  • His plate discipline is for real, and extraordinary
  • He's probably going to hit into a ton of double plays
  • He's a very unique player, and hard to project

 

As we get to know him more, and based on this article, he could end up being a truly unusual player: maybe hit .290ish or better, with only with 30 doubles and 10 HR, but 100+ walks. So maybe a .290/.420/.430 line, or something like that. Even with slow foot-speed, that would be a nice leadoff hitter.

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BTH Hall of Fame

BTH

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

So maybe more like a sort of Luis Arraez to Yandy Diaz ceiling instead of Freddie Freeman best case scenario.

Watching him on MiLBtv, I kept thinking of Arraez in his ability to spray the ball to all fields and focusing more on placing the ball than hitting it hard.

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Angelsjunky Hall of Fame

Angelsjunky

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21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So maybe more like a sort of Luis Arraez to Yandy Diaz ceiling instead of Freddie Freeman best case scenario.

That's the takeaway I got from the article: I don't think there's a good comp for him -- we're left combing elements of different players, and even then it isn't clear.

Here's another: John Kruk. Sort of. He strikes out less and walks even more than Kruk. Kruk had a career .300/.397/.446 line. Let's say the contact ability is similar, so Schanuel manages to hit .300. But Kruk's BB% was an excellent 14.1 and I think Schanuel can be even higher, so that .397 OBP becomes, say, .420. Kruk's HR varied from about 7 to 21, averaging around 14. That might end up being his peak. Kruk hit some doubles, but maked out at 33. So similar power.

So again, I see a .290-.300ish hitter (maybe higher), .400-.430ish OBP, .420-.460ish SLG. That's all relatively optimistic, but I think very do-able. So we might see seasons like so:

2024: .287/.397/.414

2025: .298/.417/.432

2026: .307/.428/.443

2027: .292/.408/.427

2028: .328/.441/.467

Again, I'm probably being a bit optimistic, but that's how I see it turning out if he fulfills his potential. He could also end up as a .270/.380/.390 guy.

 

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jsnpritchett Hall of Fame

jsnpritchett

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4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's the takeaway I got from the article: I don't think there's a good comp for him -- we're left combing elements of different players, and even then it isn't clear.

Here's another: John Kruk. Sort of. He strikes out less and walks even more than Kruk. Kruk had a career .300/.397/.446 line. Let's say the contact ability is similar, so Schanuel manages to hit .300. But Kruk's BB% was an excellent 14.1 and I think Schanuel can be even higher, so that .397 OBP becomes, say, .420. Kruk's HR varied from about 7 to 21, averaging around 14. That might end up being his peak. Kruk hit some doubles, but maked out at 33. So similar power.

So again, I see a .290-.300ish hitter (maybe higher), .400-.430ish OBP, .420-.460ish SLG. That's all relatively optimistic, but I think very do-able. So we might see seasons like so:

2024: .287/.397/.414

2025: .298/.417/.432

2026: .307/.428/.443

2027: .292/.408/.427

2028: .328/.441/.467

Again, I'm probably being a bit optimistic, but that's how I see it turning out if he fulfills his potential. He could also end up as a .270/.380/.390 guy.

 

Eight guys in MLB have a .397 or higher OBP and you're suggesting he might get there next season in his full rookie season.  Yes, that's being optimistic. 

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tomsred All-Star

tomsred

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nolan-schanuel-an-angels-unicorn-for-the-discerning-fan/

Pretty interesting. The key points:

  • He has a very low launch angle, hitting the ball down and hard on the ground - which implies he'll mostly be a singles hitter, with a few doubles sprinkled in
  • His plate discipline is for real, and extraordinary
  • He's probably going to hit into a ton of double plays
  • He's a very unique player, and hard to project

 

As we get to know him more, and based on this article, he could end up being a truly unusual player: maybe hit .290ish or better, with only with 30 doubles and 10 HR, but 100+ walks. So maybe a .290/.420/.430 line, or something like that. Even with slow foot-speed, that would be a nice leadoff hitter.

I don't know his exact foot speed, but he seems a little slow.  Don't you want someone leading off who can steal bases?  This team has too few players with real speed already.  I thought the Cincinnati series showed us what real speed can do.  Schanuel is a really unique player from what he has shown us so far, I'm just not convinced he is the ideal lead off hitter.  I understand they are trying different things right now with players to see how they perform, there is nothing to lose in doing so.  

Right now it's probably the least of the team's problems.  The pitching and defense need to be addressed once again, and very significantly.  Way too many runs have been scored on the Angels this year, it's ugly!  I really like Ohtani both personally and as a player, but if it keeps the team from addressing pitching and defense I don't know how you justify keeping him when you have a budget limit. 

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ScottT Baseball Ops

ScottT

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I don't know his exact foot speed, but he seems a little slow.  Don't you want someone leading off who can steal bases?  This team has too few players with real speed already.  I thought the Cincinnati series showed us what real speed can do.  Schanuel is a really unique player from what he has shown us so far, I'm just not convinced he is the ideal lead off hitter.  I understand they are trying different things right now with players to see how they perform, there is nothing to lose in doing so.  

Right now it's probably the least of the team's problems.  The pitching and defense need to be addressed once again, and very significantly.  Way too many runs have been scored on the Angels this year, it's ugly!  I really like Ohtani both personally and as a player, but if it keeps the team from addressing pitching and defense I don't know how you justify keeping him when you have a budget limit. 

Yes.

Best option by far right now. 

As far as addressing pitching.  They were, what, 9th in mlb in era last year.  Added Anderson.   While you couldn't have expected a repeat of last year you could've expected better.  Added Estevez and Moore.

Young pitchers don't come up and have consistently good results.   Some hitters do but not many starters.  Detmers, Sandoval, Silseth, and Canning could make for an excellent rotation .... even next year.  It didn't work out this year, but it doesn't mean the Angels ignore pitching 

 

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UndertheHalo Hall of Fame

UndertheHalo

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He’s got a weird swing.  Who knows if it’ll stay that way.  His ceiling is going to be pretty limited if he can’t get more lift on the ball.  I imagine he will work on that.  Anyway.  Obviously he can take a major league AB.  That’s worth a lot.  It’s just a wait and see thing.  If he’s a reasonable every day major league player that actually stays on the field then that’s a big W for the club.  

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Angelsjunky Hall of Fame

Angelsjunky

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One problem I have with contemporary baseball thinking is the idea that "ceiling" is defined by a player doing everything, or at least having power. It seems to me that there used to be more variance in terms of how players could be good - certainly back when speed was more value, but also when there used to be more batting average specialists. 

Now obviously a Schanuel who hits 20-30 HR is more valuable than one who doesn't (all other factors being the same), but he doesn't have to hit 20-30 HR to be a valuable player and good hitter. If you get on base at a .400 clip, you're going to help the offense no matter what else you do. 

The point being, I'd be hesitant to think about changing his swing. Let him try to be successful with what got him here. The Angels could really use a guy who walks 100 times a year, even if he only hits 30 doubles and 10 HR. Even if he only hits .270, that's going to yield a .380+ OBP. If he hits .290 or better, he's at .400+. The Angels need that.

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UndertheHalo Hall of Fame

UndertheHalo

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17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

One problem I have with contemporary baseball thinking is the idea that "ceiling" is defined by a player doing everything, or at least having power. I can't say this for sure, but there used to be more variance in terms of how players could be good - certainly back when speed was more value, but also when there used to be more batting average specialists. 

Now obviously a Schanuel who hits 20-30 HR is more valuable than one who doesn't (all other factors being the same), but he doesn't have to hit 20-30 HR to be a valuable player and good hitter. If you get on base at a .400 clip, you're going to help the offense no matter what else you do. 

The point being, I'd be hesitant to think about changing his swing. Let him try to be successful with what got him here. The Angels could really use a guy who walks 100 times a year, even if he only hits 30 doubles and 10 HR.

If he is slow, plays a non premium defensive position and does not hit for power there is an obvious ceiling to how important a player he can be.  Even if he’s getting on base at .400 clip.  Which, ok.  That is really a huge presumption.  It would be great but in the OBP area is like a hall of fame thing.  You slipped in the 30 doubles there.  Which would be significant development from what we’re talking about regarding limited value.  He may get to the 30 doubles!  I’m not guessing one way or another whether he will.  But if that’s going to happen, the swing is probably going to have to change.  Driving the ball into the ground probably won’t work for that.  Imo.  Again tho, like I said.  If he is a useful everyday player, bringing good AB’s and OBP.  Even if it is useful in a limited way overall.  Then that’s a win for the club.

also, my opinion here is not particularly important.  Just my anecdotal amateur baseball watcher observation.   

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