OC Register: Is baseball’s Shohei Ohtani a $701 million man?

[AngelsWin.com]

Angels star Shohei Ohtani, left, will likely get a long-term contract larger than teammate Mike Trout’s $426 million, 12-year deal.(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

One big-money California business deal to watch is how rich Angels baseball star Shohei Ohtani will become once his current contract ends this year.

Ohtani, who’s making $30 million in 2023, will be a free agent when the season ends. He’ll be available for hire by any of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams to pursue. It’s all but given he’ll sign the priciest long-term contract in baseball history.

Now, it’s hard to argue that anybody paid $30 million in a single year is underpaid. Hey, it’s the 15th biggest paycheck in baseball, according to Spotrac. But if you’re not a sports fan, please realize this athlete is arguably the game’s best batter and pitcher – a two-way feat nobody else has pulled off.

Next week’s All-Star Game will serve as another billboard for Ohtani’s talents. He’s been named to the American League team twice thanks to his unique mix of skills. The festive gathering will only fuel wild speculation about Ohtani’s future: where will he play in 2024 and beyond … and for how much?

The guessing starts at a half-billion bucks for his next decade of work – topping Anaheim teammate Mike Trout’s $426 million, 12-year deal signed in 2019.

Already, Ohtani’s total baseball earnings – salary plus endorsements – are No. 1 in baseball at $70 million for 2023, as estimated by Sportico.

Ticket seller

I’ll let sports writers tell you how grand Ohtani is using ballgame stats. I’ve got my trusty spreadsheet.

Just think about Ohtani’s star power, measured by how he fills up Angel Stadium when he’s pitching and batting.

Starting pitchers like Ohtani play that position roughly every six days over a grueling six-month-plus season that runs 162 games, half played at home. And note the Angels draw much better on weekends, with crowds roughly 30% larger than mid-week games.

In 2022, Ohtani’s two weekend pitching starts in Anaheim averaged 36,891 in attendance – 629 extra fans vs. the team’s other Saturday or Sunday home games. That’s a modest 2% boost.

His star attraction shines for hard-to-sell midweek matchups. On Ohtani’s 12 weekday starts in 2022, Angel Stadium crowds averaged 29,221 – a larger bump of 2,181 or 8%.

The Ohtani ticket-sale halo more than doubled this year.

His pair of weekend pitching starts have averaged 40,135 fans – up 1,937 or 5% vs. all other Saturday-Sunday games. And his seven weekday starts drew an average 33,907 fans – an eye-catching 5,077 increase. That’s 18% more fans per game.

Imagine spreading that kind of popularity pop across a sports team’s economic reach – from TV ratings to merchandise sales to corporate partnerships.

Average star power

Ohtani is one of baseball’s premier players who’ll play as a 30-year-old next season.

Let my spreadsheet’s review of baseball’s largest existing long-term deals, as tabulated by Spotrac, give you some hints about Ohtani’s next payday.The “comps” start with the five batters with the fattest contracts. On average, owners were willing to give a 28-year-old superstar field player a deal 11 years long at $34 million a year or $371 million in total value.

Next, think about what the five highest-compensated pitchers got. This elite group, with an average age of 31, got six-year deals at $31 million a year, an average $198 million per package.

As you see, owners give batters almost twice as many big-money years as pitchers. That’s because field players compete every day and pitchers’ longevity is always an issue.

With Ohtani, however, I’ll argue his dual-threat powers also act as insurance against his long-term deal totally washing out. He’ll likely excel at some baseball skills for an extended period.

Bottom line

Ohtani shouldn’t settle for any “two-fer” discounts.

This unicorn of a player gets two jobs done with one roster spot. In baseball, where teams have limited rosters, his dual-threat status can be a colossal tactical advantage. Plus, there’s his giant marketing value, a global star expanded by his Japanese roots.

So he deserves to be paid for double duty: the average pay for premier batters plus what top-shelf pitchers make. Assuming a 10-year deal, the spreadsheet says Ohtani should get a $664 million package, or roughly $66 million a year.

Nice pay, but wait … there’s more! Half of these 10 top money deals I studied were made in 2021 or earlier. The newer deals were 5% pricer.

Yah, ballplayers get wage inflation, too! Add in that pricing factor and the spreadsheet says Ohtani’s worth $701 million over 10 years. That’s $70 million per season.

Look, all the spreadsheet did is take what teams are currently paying top stars and extrapolate those salaries to account for this peerless, two-way phenom. Note: the 14 players making more than Ohtani in 2023 average $36.6 million salaries at age 34.

Team owners are billionaires for a reason. They understand quality. They like expensive toys. But they also don’t like to overpay.

Yet it only takes one to make Shohei Ohtani an extremely wealthy man.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

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[Erstad Grit]

If Ohtani goes to a new team I'd expect that team to sell an INSANE amount of merch. Something to keep in mind. 

[Angelsjunky]

I can see him getting paid as x1.2 or maybe x1.5 players, but not x2, which implies that he's going to be a two-way player for the rest of his career and there's no guarantee of that.

 

[fan_since79]

The bidding will start at $600 million and go from there. $700 million for 10-12 years is not out of the question. 

[ScottT]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

If Ohtani goes to a new team I'd expect that team to sell an INSANE amount of merch. Something to keep in mind. 

Merchandise sales are shared.  So are ticket sales.  

So, the A's will get more revenue if he signs elsewhere.

[wopphil]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I can see him getting paid as x1.2 or maybe x1.5 players, but not x2, which implies that he's going to be a two-way player for the rest of his career and there's no guarantee of that.

 

I agree with this. I can see a salary in the $55 mil range for 10-12 years, which would take him north of $600 mil. But then again, who is actually going to be willing to pay that? 

[TroutField]

I love Shohei as much as anyone and that contract would be ridiculous. How could any team work a roster around 1 single player being $70 million in payroll. 
 

I get the argument that he’s basically an Ace pitcher and a DH in one person, so it justifies the dollar amount. But the same argument can be made for the injury risk. If he gets hurt you lose a middle of the order hitter and your Ace pitcher all in one, that’s a huge blow. Not to mention you had to skimp on other areas of the roster to compensate for the $70 million in payroll dished out to one player. 
 

or another hypothetical, what if this is a downtrend in his pitching stats? If he’s a 3.50-4 ERA Pitcher that is susceptible to the long ball and a streaky DH then is he really worth all that money? I’m not saying that’s what Shohei is, and based on history and watching the stuff he has done it’s probably not the probable outcome , but there is a lot of risk involved 

[Jason]

For that much money, I’ll be upset if the Halos do sign him. That will strap them for years to come. No thanks 

[Taylor]

[Angel Oracle]

I still think it will either be the Halos re-signing him for 3 years/$200 million, or anybody including the Halos signing him for 10 years/$500 million with a 3rd year opt out.

Can pretty much guarantee Ohtani not able to excel at pitching and hitting for more than 3-4 more years.  Competing teams will take that into consideration, I am guessing.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[greginpsca]

Bye Shohei.it was fun while it lasted. We just can't justify paying one player more than the total payroll several teams have. If we are ever going to win again, we will need more payroll flexability.

[Tank]

because $700 million just wouldn't be enough.

[gurn67]

The are two things that are going to limit his total payout. One is Shohei himself. He doesn't have Borass as an agent, so that means he's not going to go to the highest offer no matter whether he wants to play there, or not. The luxury tax. Whoever signs him has to understand that he is basically going to put them into the luxury tax for the entire duration of the contract. So, it's not just the 60 million, or whatever he ends of getting. It's going to be way more than that due to the luxury tax penalties. Without a luxury tax, who knows how much someone would shell out. If Cohen is willing to shell out over 40 million for has been pitchers, what would he give to Shohei if there was no luxury tax?

[T.G.]

$699 million, tops.

[Hubs]

The Largest Contract in Baseball History is still Mike Trout's 426 Million. The Largest by AAV for a position player is $40M AAV

The Largest Pitching Contract is Gerrit Cole's 324 Million. The Largest AAV for a Pitcher is $43.33.

There is no way, that they simply add the two record contracts together and get over $700 M. It's just not happening. No one would invest that much into one player. 

 

Now, I can see him getting 5-10M over the previous high, but not as an AAV. So say 45-48M over 10-12 years. That's a max of 576, which would be $150M more than Trout got, and $250M more than Cole. 

 

He's not getting $700. That's ridiculous.

 

[TroutField]

Arte just sell the team to Shohei at a discounted rate and you can stay on the payroll with a “10 year personal service clause” 
 

Sho could be the first ever Owner/Player 

[Blarg]

6 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

This unicorn of a player gets two jobs done with one roster spot. In baseball, where teams have limited rosters, his dual-threat status can be a colossal tactical advantage.

Wrong. Ohtani does not pitch in a 5 man rotation so an extra pitcher has to be on the roster. 

[Duren, Duren]

Don't forget the fragility of the human body under constant athletic stress. Ohtani already had one serious operation. The way he swings you wonder about something going wrong. And pitching is notorious for all sorts of mechanical issues leading to injury. Not being in the field helps, but running the bases is another potential danger point. 

If money really was his objective he's find a way to preserve himself the rest of the season. Ask for more rest, longer breaks between pitching, and so on. He's not the sort of guy that would fake an injury, so if he tweaks something you know it's real. 

Another factor is recency bias.

While he's leading the league in various two way categories these kinds of stories are written and all of baseball salivates at seeing him in their favorite uniform. 

But if he is hurt or slumps seriously in the second half a little glamor may become tarnished. And owners will become more cautious about mortgaging the future on one human being. 

Would Trout be offered his current deal after these successive years of injury and possibly age related complications? 

Right now Ohtani is in his prime. But can he get better? Who knows? Hard to imagine. Can he sustain this year's pace both ways? 

No doubt he'll get the biggest deal in history in one form or another. Long term and/or pro rated per season. I still think it will be a three or four year deal with possibly options beyond. But with escape clauses for both sides. Maybe Arte is still in the running that way if Ohtani himself has mixed feelings about moving on. But realistically it seems that the pressure will be strong for him to explore new options. 

[CaliAngel]

Doyers and Stankees are licking their chops. 

Ohtani has looked so unhappy being on this team the past month or two. 

Can't blame him for being fed up with this bullshit. 

[T.G.]

13 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Don't forget the fragility of the human body under constant athletic stress.

We're Angels fans.... we don't believe in such things.

[T.G.]

5 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

Ohtani has looked so unhappy being on this team the past month or two.

Speaking of bull shit.

[Tank]

8 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

Ohtani has looked so unhappy being on this team the past month or two. 

good call! he's masked it so well by laughing with his teammates and playing around with the pitchers when he returns to the dugout after hitting another homer. 

[TroutField]

7 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

Doyers and Stankees are licking their chops. 

Ohtani has looked so unhappy being on this team the past month or two. 

Can't blame him for being fed up with this bullshit. 

We were a few games out of the division lead and solidly in the 2nd wild card spot as recently as like 2 weeks ago. We have lost our starting Catcher, Backup Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, Utility Infielder, Center Fielder, and Set up guy for an extended period of time. You can’t really plan for that many injuries and even the braves would be in trouble if they lost 7/9 starting position players. 
 

if Ohtani was that unhappy maybe he should stop throwing that stupid sweeper he keeps trying to make work, pitching has been the main issue all year. 
 

weird statement to come up with out of nowhere lol 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, CaliAngel said:

Ohtani has looked so unhappy being on this team the past month or two. 

This is kind of a silly point. 
 

He’s looked really unhappy when they lose. But he’s looked really happy when they win. 
 

Like everyone else. 

[fan_since79]

He and Mike Trout want to win and they want to play in a World Series.

Shohei has the luxury of being able to leave. Trout is stuck here with a no-trade and no opt-out deal, for seven more years.

If we sink in the second half, say goodbye to Ohtani.