Pythagorean Standings

[Hubs]

With the Run Differential bonus the Angels got based on Saturday's game last week, they are now closer to expected wins than they had been. They've also had at least one blowout which affected them the other way (which I ironically also attended) so...I don't think it's that one game is much of a skewing factor.

They are 44-37, with 403 runs scored and 359 allowed, a +44 differential. The Pythagorean Win is actually .558 or (403^2)/(403^2+359^2) so they are 1 game behind expected wins based on this stat. 45-36 is their projected record.

Where are the other AL contenders?

Tampa Bay has 455 RS and 309 RA (a +146) which calculates to a .684 projected winning pct, which is insane. They should be 56-26, instead of 54-28. 2 Wins Behind their projection.

Texas has 468 RS and 316 RA (a +152) which calculates to a .687 projected winning pct, which is also insane. They should be 54-24, instead of 48-31, 6 Wins Behind their projection.

Baltimore has 381 RS and 350 RA (a +31) which calculates to a .542 projected winning pct, which is way below what they are actually doing. It says they should be 42-36 which puts them 6 wins Ahead of their projection.

New York has 340 RS and 318 RA (a +22) which calculates to a .533 projected winning pct, which is below their actual record. They should be 42-37, which puts them 1 win Ahead of their projection.

Toronto has 361 RS and 341 RA (a +20) which calculates to a .528 projected winning pct, which is below their actual record. They should be 42-38, which puts them 1 win Ahead of their projection.

Houston has 353 RS and 314 RA (a +39) which calculates to a .558 projected winning pct, which is above their actual record. They should be 44-35, which puts them 2 wins Behind their projection.

Boston  has 395 RS and 383 RA (a +12) which calculates to a .515 projected winning pct, which is above their actual record. They should be 41-39, which puts them 1 wins Behind their projection.

Minnesota has 343 RS and 316 RA (a +27) which calculates to a .541 projected winning pct, which is above their actual record. They should be 44-37, which puts them 4 wins Behind their projection.

Seattle has 352 RS and 327 RA (a +25) which calculates to a .537 projected winning pct, which is above their actual record. They should be 42-36, which puts them 4 wins Behind their projection.

 

[Hubs]

If they were actually playing their pythagorean records, the standings would shake out like this.

AL West - Rangers -- Angels 10.5 GB, Astros 10.5 GB, Mariners 12 GB

AL East - Rays -- Orioles 12 GB, Yankees 12.5 GB, Blue Jays 13 GB, Red Sox 15 GB

AL Central -- Minnesota 

AL Wild Card -- Angels (1), Astros (2), Orioles (3), Seattle (3) Tied -- Yankees 0.5 GB, Blue Jays 1 GB, Red Sox 3 GB

 

[Taylor]

What about the Pantherian standings?

[Hubs]

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

What about the Pantherian standings?

60% of the time it works every time.

[Angel Oracle]

37 minutes ago, Taylor said:

What about the Pantherian standings?

Wicked approves.

[Slegnaac]

Why don't they publish the Statomatic standings anymore?

[VladdyforHOF]

Texas is insane. I feel like either their pitching or hitting will fade a bit as the season progresses - I can't see them continuing this run differential pace. They have still hit an absurd .310/.366/.508 team RISP in 860 PA. The Angels by comparison have 804 PA with RISP.