2023 Angels ZiPS Projections

[Revad]

I get a sadistic sort of pleasure watching any former GM create a playoff team.  Dipoto, Eppler, whomever.  Shoot I wish that would happen here.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Revad said:

I get a sadistic sort of pleasure watching any former GM create a playoff team.  Dipoto, Eppler, whomever.  Shoot I wish that would happen here.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Revad said:

I get a sadistic sort of pleasure watching any former GM create a playoff team.  Dipoto, Eppler, whomever.  Shoot I wish that would happen here.

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, Revad said:

I get a sadistic sort of pleasure watching any former GM create a playoff team.  Dipoto, Eppler, whomever.  Shoot I wish that would happen here.

The last time the Angels had a "former GM" as the "current GM" of the team was 1994.... The last 6 have all been first time GMs.

[floplag]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

Also you accused me of gross simplification and then you post this?

Yes, i did, Was that not your point?  that we had too much tied up in three guys?  2 of which performed to their appropriate levels?
They were not the problem,, yet you brought it up so... yeah

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Yes, i did, Was that not your point?  that we had too much tied up in three guys?  2 of which performed to their appropriate levels?
They were not the problem,, yet you brought it up so... yeah

You claimed I was over simplifying things and then you over simplified it by saying are we that much better with Urshela, while ignoring everything else we did.  So yea, that’s ridiculous.  

[floplag]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

Would Urshela, Renfro, Drury and Anderson make a difference last year?  Yes. 

And as usual youre going off on tangents... i think ill find the door.

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

And as usual youre going off on tangents... i think ill find the door.

You should find the door because you are being ridiculous again.  I’m not going off on tangents, you just choose not to follow along with the actual conversation again.  

[Second Base]

[Blarg]

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The last time the Angels had a "former GM" as the "current GM" of the team was 1994.... The last 6 have all been first time GMs.

Not wanting the gun pointed my way but... 

Bill Stoneman was the Expos GM from 1987-89.

[tdawg87]

Imagine being literally so incapable of handling opposing opinions that you have to "leave" the conversation lmao

Edited January 5, 2023 by tdawg87

[Hubs]

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The last time the Angels had a "former GM" as the "current GM" of the team was 1994.... The last 6 have all been first time GMs.

He's talking about former Halo GM's like Eppler and DiPoto...not GM's that were GM's before they were here. I liked Eppler, thought he got started the turn around which Minasian has continued, but he picked a bad manager (Ausmus) to succeed a legend, and was ultimately the fall guy. DiPoto sucks cuz he quit on the team when he didn't get his way. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

29 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Not wanting the gun pointed my way but... 

Bill Stoneman was the Expos GM from 1987-89.

Kind of. 

Stoneman was appointed the interim GM from August of 87 through sometime in 88 while he groomed Dombrowski for the job.  Dombrowski had been the farm director through 1987 and was unofficially promoted to GM with Gary Hughes taking over as farm director prior to the 88 season -- the Expos made it official in 89.  But Stoneman never actually had the title, he just sort of filled the role and helped Dombrowski grow into the role.

Stoneman was known as the kingmaker in Montreal -- he made a lot of guys the GM despite always being offered the job.  Dude made Dombrowski, Duquette, Malone, and Jim Beattie the GMs in Montreal.  Angels were lucky his kids were grown up and he was willing to finally take a GM job when he did.  Then those SOBs had to have grandkids and we haven't stopped feeling the pain ever since.

But if the interim tag counts then JD wasn't a first time GM either.  He filled in for a bit in AZ too.

[UndertheHalo]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

You should find the door because you are being ridiculous again.  I’m not going off on tangents, you just choose not to follow along with the actual conversation again.  

Our boy is always reliably the biggest piss baby on AW. 

[Docwaukee]

23 hours ago, floplag said:

Well thats moot, we are where we are in that regard and i might remind you that two of those three guys played to their level last year, Rendon is the only one who did not.  Would having Urshela have made the team much better last year?

2 of the three highest paid which means they got almost nothing from the 36.5m they spent on Rendon.  

And yes, having Urshela would have been huge.  

A combined 165 PA from Wade, Stefanic and Mayfield at 2b for -0.6 WAR.  

A combined 165 PA from Villar, Gosselin, Mayfield, MacKinnon and Rojas at 3b for -1.5 WAR.  

A combined 213 PA from Duffy, MacKinnon, Thaiss, Ford, Gosselin and Suzuki for -0.9 WAR.  

That's 543 PA and -3.0 WAR.  

It just so happens that Urshela had almost that exact number of PA and produced 2.4 WAR.  

That's a 5.5 win difference because of one bench player.  The total team position player WAR last year was 11.9.  

And that's just the numbers.  Does Walsh DL and get surgery much sooner if you've got someone to back him up?  Does Rendon?  Do it impact how many at bats they throw at guys like Whitefield and Duggar and Dillon Thomas and Mayfield and Aguilar and Rojas and Sierra and Wade and Harrison and Lagares in the OF?  Because that's another 377 PA at -2.4 WAR.   

Floor. Ceiling.  Roof.  Basement. Attic.  All runs and therefore all wins count the same no matter where they come from.  

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

2 of the three highest paid which means they got almost nothing from the 36.5m they spent on Rendon.  

And yes, having Urshela would have been huge.  

A combined 165 PA from Wade, Stefanic and Mayfield at 2b for -0.6 WAR.  

A combined 165 PA from Villar, Gosselin, Mayfield, MacKinnon and Rojas at 3b for -1.5 WAR.  

A combined 213 PA from Duffy, MacKinnon, Thaiss, Ford, Gosselin and Suzuki for -0.9 WAR.  

That's 543 PA and -3.0 WAR.  

It just so happens that Urshela had almost that exact number of PA and produced 2.4 WAR.  

That's a 5.5 win difference because of one bench player.  The total team position player WAR last year was 11.9.  

And that's just the numbers.  Does Walsh DL and get surgery much sooner if you've got someone to back him up?  Does Rendon?  Do it impact how many at bats they throw at guys like Whitefield and Duggar and Dillon Thomas and Mayfield and Aguilar and Rojas and Sierra and Wade and Harrison and Lagares in the OF?  Because that's another 377 PA at -2.4 WAR.   

Floor. Ceiling.  Roof.  Basement. Attic.  All runs and therefore all wins count the same no matter where they come from.  

This lacks simplicity 

[Blarg]

I think the schedule will determine more about the Angels win/loss record more than anything. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

This lacks simplicity 

Are you saying that it's a little more nuanced than that?

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

2 of the three highest paid which means they got almost nothing from the 36.5m they spent on Rendon.  

And yes, having Urshela would have been huge.  

A combined 165 PA from Wade, Stefanic and Mayfield at 2b for -0.6 WAR.  

A combined 165 PA from Villar, Gosselin, Mayfield, MacKinnon and Rojas at 3b for -1.5 WAR.  

A combined 213 PA from Duffy, MacKinnon, Thaiss, Ford, Gosselin and Suzuki for -0.9 WAR.  

That's 543 PA and -3.0 WAR.  

It just so happens that Urshela had almost that exact number of PA and produced 2.4 WAR.  

That's a 5.5 win difference because of one bench player.  The total team position player WAR last year was 11.9.  

And that's just the numbers.  Does Walsh DL and get surgery much sooner if you've got someone to back him up?  Does Rendon?  Do it impact how many at bats they throw at guys like Whitefield and Duggar and Dillon Thomas and Mayfield and Aguilar and Rojas and Sierra and Wade and Harrison and Lagares in the OF?  Because that's another 377 PA at -2.4 WAR.   

Floor. Ceiling.  Roof.  Basement. Attic.  All runs and therefore all wins count the same no matter where they come from.  

This is a very good point and it's fairly straightforward. I remember reading this a while back when they acquired Urshela and ultimately it has a great impact on my perception of the trade, swinged my opinion of it in a positive direction.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

I think the schedule will determine more about the Angels win/loss record more than anything. 

Fewer games vs the AL West won't hurt!

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

This is a very good point and it's fairly straightforward. I remember reading this a while back when they acquired Urshela and ultimately it has a great impact on my perception of the trade, swinged my opinion of it in a positive direction.

Even if the focus isn't on positions that completely failed last year.  

Take CF for instance.   Trout occupied 468 PA there so obviously it would have been great to get a bit more, but that's not horrible.  And in typical Trout fashion he put up 6 WAR.   Marsh took some of his time off with about 50 PA but the other 161 PA was good for about -1.0 WAR.  Even if you have a solid player at each spot otherwise, if you don't have depth just imagine multiplying that x 9.  Obviously it's usually not that extreme, but it almost was for the Angels last year.  

There are so many plate appearances and innings that don't come from your first 9 position players or your top 5 starters.  

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Even if the focus isn't on positions that completely failed last year.  

Take CF for instance.   Trout occupied 468 PA there so obviously it would have been great to get a bit more, but that's not horrible.  And in typical Trout fashion he put up 6 WAR.   Marsh took some of his time off with about 50 PA but the other 161 PA was good for about -1.0 WAR.  Even if you have a solid player at each spot otherwise, if you don't have depth just imagine multiplying that x 9.  Obviously it's usually not that extreme, but it almost was for the Angels last year.  

There are so many plate appearances and innings that don't come from your first 9 position players or your top 5 starters.  

Injuries are why positions failed last year.

Trout is good for 8+ if healthy, but as Doc says, the backup can't be worth negative WAR. I have faith that Moniak can hit and defend at replacement level, but they will need to add an OF if Trout (or Ward or Renfroe) is not healthy for an extended period. I hope they get a solid major leaguer on a minor league deal, but that is unlikely.

Drury is solid backup at first. Much better than MacKinnon or Ford.

Rengifo is a solid backup at second. Much better than Tyler Wade or Duffy.

They still have an issue at SS.

Urshela is a solid backup at 3rd.

We'll see how they handle C.

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Injuries are why positions failed last year.

Trout is good for 8+ if healthy, but as Doc says, the backup can't be worth negative WAR. I have faith that Moniak can hit and defend at replacement level, but they will need to add an OF if Trout (or Ward or Renfroe) is not healthy for an extended period. I hope they get a solid major leaguer on a minor league deal, but that is unlikely.

Drury is solid backup at first. Much better than MacKinnon or Ford.

Rengifo is a solid backup at second. Much better than Tyler Wade or Duffy.

They still have an issue at SS.

Urshela is a solid backup at 3rd.

We'll see how they handle C.

@Docwaukee I suppose that's why they call it, "replacement." If your depth is adequate, your backups should be with 0 WAR. If your backups are worth negative WAR, it means your reserves are either under performing, or simply not good enough.