The Strange Case of Mike Trout (in 2022)

[Angelsjunky]

Last night Mike Trout broke out of his slump in a big way, with three hits including a home run, and his first stolen base since May 10th...of 2021. It was one of many big games for Trout this year--by my accounting, one of his ten best of the season--but also followed what was his second worst slump of 2022.

Part 1: A season of Ups and Downs

Trout has been up and down all year. To recap:

On May 28 through 43 games played, Trout was hitting .320/.422/.673 with a 206 wRC+ (1st), and a 2.8 WAR (3rd). He then went 0-25 in the next 7 games, with only 2 walks and 9 strikeouts; that a .000/.103/.000 line -- his worst seven-game span of his career--with a -66 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR.

For the rest of June, or his next 19 games, Trout hit .313/.410/.851 with a 240 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR. But then, for the first six games of July, he slumped again, hitting .045/.125/.045 with a -50 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. 

Meaning, for all but two weeks of the year, Trout was vintage Trout. For two one-week spans, he was one of the worst players in baseball.

What is so striking about this is that he's never been this streaky, or slumped in the way that he's slumped. In the past, a slumping Trout still found ways to help his team: he would draw walks and steal bases. But this year he's on pace for his worst walk rate (12.2%) since 2014 (11.8%), and also by far the worst K% (29.6%) of his career, far about his career average (21.9%).

So that's the general lay of the landscape. Let's dive a bit deeper into the numbers, to see if we can discover anything.

Part 2: 2022 vs. 2019

Trout's last full season was 2019. In fact, one good thing about this season is that Trout has almost played as many games (76) as he did in 2020-21 combined (89).

But 2019 gives us the last example of a fully season of Trout playing. To assess his performance, I'm using a formula for each game as follows:

(Hits + Total Bases + Walks + HBP + SB) - (Outs + CS + GIDP)

Basically a positive score is good, zero is solid, and a negative score is bad. A score 5 or so is a very good game, and a score of 8 or more is great (Trout's was 8 last night, his ninth such game of the year; he's had a couple games of 12). -1 to -3 is poor, and -4 is basically going 0-4 with no walks, or 0-5 with 1 walk. A -5 game is very rare.

Here's how the two seasons look:

What should be obvious without a detailed look is how much more up-and-down Trout has been this year. And further, there's nothing close to one of those two slumps in 2019.

In fact, only once in all of 2019 did Trout have more than two games in a row of negative value.

You might also notice that Trout's big performances in 2022 tend to be higher than in 2019. But let's break it down further with another chart:

As you can see, Trout has a much higher percentage of great games this year than in 2019, but also a much higher percentage of negative value games as well as "terrible" games; that is, games in which he produces zero value.

Meaning, these two charts illustrate what we saw in Part 1 - that Trout is more hot and cold than is usual for him, and both hotter and colder than at least in 2019.

Part 3: Statcast Stuff

But that doesn't really address why. If we look at more advanced statistics, can we get a sense of what might be going on, besides anything psychological?

Let's start with simple stuff. Trout has 74 hits this year, including 31 singles, 17 doubles, 2 triples, and 24 HR. That's 43 of 74 hits for extra bases, or 58.1%. Before this year, his career rate of 44%, and his previous career high was 54% in 2019. Meaning, he's hitting balls for extra-base hits at a much higher rate. But that can also be translated as he's hitting far fewer singles. 

But looking at the Statcast data, is there anything that stands out? A few things:

• A career high Barrel % of 21.6.
• A career high Launch Angel of 24.4
• A career low GB% of 23.9 (career 34.0)
• A career high Zone Swing% of 62.1, coupled with a career low Zone Contact % of 74.9.
• A career high 31.9 Whiff%.

So clearly Trout is swinging and missing more - he's making far worse contact. What seems to be happening is that Trout has turned into more of a pure power hitter, thus the sky-high launch angle.

In fact, his profile this year is exactly what some expected would happen to Trout as he started to decline: his BA would fall before his power. Tony Blengino pointed out a few years ago that Trout's rising launch angle could indicate decline. Trout seemingly corrected it, and his LA plummeted -- but that was mostly in his short 36-game season last year, which could be because of sample size.

This is not to say that Trout can't shift things and start making more contact. He's still only 30, not 33 or 35. It could be that he's just never gotten into a groove due to limited playing time over the previous two seasons, and has pressed a bit, both due to feeling uncomfortable and the team's struggles.

But it also could be that what we're seeing is the "new Trout." He'll still be great, hit lots of home runs, but maybe be more of a <.280 BA guy, than a perennial .300 hitter. One would hope that, even if this is the case, he'll adjust accordingly and take more walks.

One more point of concern. His "No Doubter%" has gone way down and is by far the lowest of his career: 30.4 vs double that in some years. This is strange, because he doesn't seem to be hitting the ball any more softly, and he's hitting as many HR as ever. It could be that with his increase LA, he's hitting more long high flies that just barely get out.

Summary

The question remains whether this is the new Trout or an aberration. One of the hallmarks of his greatness has been his ability to adjust. As far as whatever ails him this year, he hasn't yet adjusted, at least not overall.

I wouldn't diminish the possibility that most--even all--of this is in his head. As I said above, he could be pressing because of the team's struggles. 

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[AngelsLakersFan]

He's on the wrong side of 30 and this is what decline looks like.

Teams have realized they can beat him in the zone with good fastballs. They are challenging him and more often than not winning, but occasionally they get burned by virtue of being over the plate.

[Angelsjunky]

50 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He's on the wrong side of 30 and this is what decline looks like.

Teams have realized they can beat him in the zone with good fastballs. They are challenging him and more often than not winning, but occasionally they get burned by virtue of being over the plate.

If he's declining, its on the early side. Most hitters, especially great ones, don't start showing signs of it until age 32 or so. Some earlier, some later. But 32 is the average.

Overall performance tends to start declining a bit earlier, but I'm talking just hitting.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

If he's declining, its on the early side. Most hitters, especially great ones, don't start showing signs of it until age 32 or so. Some earlier, some later. But 32 is the average.

Overall performance tends to start declining a bit earlier, but I'm talking just hitting.

He'll be 32 in a year, so I'd say he's solidly in the "32 or so" range. This isn't just a flukey thing, he's at 316 plate appearances. Plus this is really just "signs" of decline, he's still at a 174 OPS+ which is in line with his 176 career average.

In some ways that's encouraging that his dominance of the strike zone could take a significant step back but he can still maintain his production with better output on contact. Of course a hitters batted ball production takes a lot longer to stabilize than their strikeout and walk rates.

[fan_since79]

His extreme, insane workout regimen has worn out his body earlier than normal.

Just my opinion...

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Last night Mike Trout broke out of his slump in a big way, with three hits including a home run, and his first stolen base since May 10th...of 2021. It was one of many big games for Trout this year--by my accounting, one of his ten best of the season--but also followed what was his second worst slump of 2022.

Part 1: A season of Ups and Downs

Trout has been up and down all year. To recap:

On May 28 through 43 games played, Trout was hitting .320/.422/.673 with a 206 wRC+ (1st), and a 2.8 WAR (3rd). He then went 0-25 in the next 7 games, with only 2 walks and 9 strikeouts; that a .000/.103/.000 line -- his worst seven-game span of his career--with a -66 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR.

For the rest of June, or his next 19 games, Trout hit .313/.410/.851 with a 240 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR. But then, for the first six games of July, he slumped again, hitting .045/.125/.045 with a -50 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. 

Meaning, for all but two weeks of the year, Trout was vintage Trout. For two one-week spans, he was one of the worst players in baseball.

What is so striking about this is that he's never been this streaky, or slumped in the way that he's slumped. In the past, a slumping Trout still found ways to help his team: he would draw walks and steal bases. But this year he's on pace for his worst walk rate (12.2%) since 2014 (11.8%), and also by far the worst K% (29.6%) of his career, far about his career average (21.9%).

So that's the general lay of the landscape. Let's dive a bit deeper into the numbers, to see if we can discover anything.

Part 2: 2022 vs. 2019

Trout's last full season was 2019. In fact, one good thing about this season is that Trout has almost played as many games (76) as he did in 2020-21 combined (89).

But 2019 gives us the last example of a fully season of Trout playing. To assess his performance, I'm using a formula for each game as follows:

(Hits + Total Bases + Walks + HBP + SB) - (Outs + CS + GIDP)

Basically a positive score is good, zero is solid, and a negative score is bad. A score 5 or so is a very good game, and a score of 8 or more is great (Trout's was 8 last night, his ninth such game of the year; he's had a couple games of 12). -1 to -3 is poor, and -4 is basically going 0-4 with no walks, or 0-5 with 1 walk. A -5 game is very rare.

Here's how the two seasons look:

What should be obvious without a detailed look is how much more up-and-down Trout has been this year. And further, there's nothing close to one of those two slumps in 2019.

In fact, only once in all of 2019 did Trout have more than two games in a row of negative value.

You might also notice that Trout's big performances in 2022 tend to be higher than in 2019. But let's break it down further with another chart:

As you can see, Trout has a much higher percentage of great games this year than in 2019, but also a much higher percentage of negative value games as well as "terrible" games; that is, games in which he produces zero value.

Meaning, these two charts illustrate what we saw in Part 1 - that Trout is more hot and cold than is usual for him, and both hotter and colder than at least in 2019.

Part 3: Statcast Stuff

But that doesn't really address why. If we look at more advanced statistics, can we get a sense of what might be going on, besides anything psychological?

Let's start with simple stuff. Trout has 74 hits this year, including 31 singles, 17 doubles, 2 triples, and 24 HR. That's 43 of 74 hits for extra bases, or 58.1%. Before this year, his career rate of 44%, and his previous career high was 54% in 2019. Meaning, he's hitting balls for extra-base hits at a much higher rate. But that can also be translated as he's hitting far fewer singles. 

But looking at the Statcast data, is there anything that stands out? A few things:

• A career high Barrel % of 21.6.
• A career high Launch Angel of 24.4
• A career low GB% of 23.9 (career 34.0)
• A career high Zone Swing% of 62.1, coupled with a career low Zone Contact % of 74.9.
• A career high 31.9 Whiff%.

So clearly Trout is swinging and missing more - he's making far worse contact. What seems to be happening is that Trout has turned into more of a pure power hitter, thus the sky-high launch angle.

In fact, his profile this year is exactly what some expected would happen to Trout as he started to decline: his BA would fall before his power. Tony Blengino pointed out a few years ago that Trout's rising launch angle could indicate decline. Trout seemingly corrected it, and his LA plummeted -- but that was mostly in his short 36-game season last year, which could be because of sample size.

This is not to say that Trout can't shift things and start making more contact. He's still only 30, not 33 or 35. It could be that he's just never gotten into a groove due to limited playing time over the previous two seasons, and has pressed a bit, both due to feeling uncomfortable and the team's struggles.

But it also could be that what we're seeing is the "new Trout." He'll still be great, hit lots of home runs, but maybe be more of a <.280 BA guy, than a perennial .300 hitter. One would hope that, even if this is the case, he'll adjust accordingly and take more walks.

One more point of concern. His "No Doubter%" has gone way down and is by far the lowest of his career: 30.4 vs double that in some years. This is strange, because he doesn't seem to be hitting the ball any more softly, and he's hitting as many HR as ever. It could be that with his increase LA, he's hitting more long high flies that just barely get out.

Summary

The question remains whether this is the new Trout or an aberration. One of the hallmarks of his greatness has been his ability to adjust. As far as whatever ails him this year, he hasn't yet adjusted, at least not overall.

I wouldn't diminish the possibility that most--even all--of this is in his head. As I said above, he could be pressing because of the team's struggles. 

 

You provide great information. You should be in front office this off season. I think Trout is tired of losing and is just fed up with way things have gone.

[Justin]

29 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

His extreme, insane workout regimen has worn out his body earlier than normal.

Just my opinion...

This never stops being funny

[Taylor]

34 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

His extreme, insane workout regimen has worn out his body earlier than normal.

Just my opinion...

Something something giant tires