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Offensively


Torridd

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Not bad - it really helps having Trout and Rendon on the team. Before adding Castro, Fangraphs has us projected in a 3-way tie for second in batting (with the Dodgers and the Red Sox, behind the Astros). They have decent projections for Castro next year, so that should edge us up to #2 in these projections (assuming none of the other top 4 have made any recent moves I'm not aware of). And, that's assuming very little production from Adell, and that Upton doesn't bounce back much after last year.

The exact position isn't super important - but its interesting that Fangraphs is so high on our offense overall. Feels like our path-to-the-postseason is: 1. stay healthy, 2. Teheran does his thing and plays above his metrics, 3. any two of the following pitchers live up to their potential: Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, 4. STAY HEALTHY. Adell living up to the hype would help as well.

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Idea though: What if we used Ohtani as a flexible piece? This year, we have plenty of hitting, but are struggling with pitching. So, we have him pitch once every five days, and only hit on occasion (some pinch hitting, maybe hit when he pitches, and maybe start as DH occasionally in very important games). In the future, maybe our pitching comes together and our offense looks like its struggling, then we shift him the other direction: DH on a regular basis, but start less (or even, god forbid, move him to the pen temporarily).

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5 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Idea though: What if we used Ohtani as a flexible piece? This year, we have plenty of hitting, but are struggling with pitching. So, we have him pitch once every five days, and only hit on occasion (some pinch hitting, maybe hit when he pitches, and maybe start as DH occasionally in very important games). In the future, maybe our pitching comes together and our offense looks like its struggling, then we shift him the other direction: DH on a regular basis, but start less (or even, god forbid, move him to the pen temporarily).

Just guessing that Ohtani would prefer a consistent routine for both hitting and pitching.

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3 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Just guessing that Ohtani would prefer a consistent routine for both hitting and pitching.

Probably, yeah. This is just something I've been playing around with in my head - even if its a year-by-year change (as in, this year we are projecting to be shallow in pitching, so this year he is conditioned to pitch more; maybe in a different year, it looks different), then he could be a super valuable asset. I'm sure he wouldn't like even that - he wants to do both, as much as possible. But...IDK. There's real value to being able to be a top pitcher one year and a top hitter in the next year, depending on team need.

You could just imagine what his free agency would look like - you got a hole? Doesn't matter where it is, Ohtani is the solution. He would be perfect for teams who need a full time bat, teams who need a full time arm, teams who have young kids and don't know who will hit and who will miss, and teams who have a solid team but could use some extra help on both offense and defense. Basically, everyone in baseball.

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25 minutes ago, Torridd said:

OK, so how good would you say we currently are from 1 to 30? If we're in the top 12, which I would hazard, why can't we trade some of that excess offense for pitching?!

Why this obsession with pitching? Can our pitching improve? Yes. But trading offense to do it probably doesn't help. You don't get any more wins for winning a game 4-3 than you do 6-5.

Assuming it's a fair trade, you expect to lose as much offensive production as what you gain in pitching. Not only does that seem to be break even, it probably hurts the team. Offense builds on itself.

For example about every 10 runs created is a win. If the league average has a .300 OBP then a HR is worth about 1.3 runs because a runner will be on base about 30% of the time. The same HR for a team with an OBP of .400 would create about 1.4 runs. In addition, the higher the OBP of the team the more PAs they get. Fangraphs did an article on putting Mike Trout in different lineups. In Houston's he would be projected for about 800 PAs over a full season. That's about 150 more than an Angels season. 

Pitching doesn't work quite the same way. You get diminishing returns once you reach a certain number of innings that starters pitch.

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3 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Why this obsession with pitching? Can our pitching improve? Yes. But trading offense to do it probably doesn't help. You don't get any more wins for winning a game 4-3 than you do 6-5.

Assuming it's a fair trade, you expect to lose as much offensive production as what you gain in pitching. Not only does that seem to be break even, it probably hurts the team. Offense builds on itself.

For example about every 10 runs created is a win. If the league average has a .300 OBP then a HR is worth about 1.3 runs because a runner will be on base about 30% of the time. The same HR for a team with an OBP of .400 would create about 1.4 runs. In addition, the higher the OBP of the team the more PAs they get. Fangraphs did an article on putting Mike Trout in different lineups. In Houston's he would be projected for about 800 PAs over a full season. That's about 150 more than an Angels season. 

Pitching doesn't work quite the same way. You get diminishing returns once you reach a certain number of innings that starters pitch.

We have a Grammar Cop here but I think we need a Math Cop on this one...

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13 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Why this obsession with pitching? Can our pitching improve? Yes. But trading offense to do it probably doesn't help. You don't get any more wins for winning a game 4-3 than you do 6-5.

Assuming it's a fair trade, you expect to lose as much offensive production as what you gain in pitching. Not only does that seem to be break even, it probably hurts the team. Offense builds on itself.

For example about every 10 runs created is a win. If the league average has a .300 OBP then a HR is worth about 1.3 runs because a runner will be on base about 30% of the time. The same HR for a team with an OBP of .400 would create about 1.4 runs. In addition, the higher the OBP of the team the more PAs they get. Fangraphs did an article on putting Mike Trout in different lineups. In Houston's he would be projected for about 800 PAs over a full season. That's about 150 more than an Angels season. 

Pitching doesn't work quite the same way. You get diminishing returns once you reach a certain number of innings that starters pitch.

Well, besides Ohtani, and who knows how often he'll pitch, I don't have a lot of confidence in any of the other starters. Like they say, good pitching beats good hitting. I like the offense, if healthy, but you wonder how many slugfests we'll win.

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56 minutes ago, Torridd said:

OK, so how good would you say we currently are from 1 to 30? If we're in the top 12, which I would hazard, why can't we trade some of that excess offense for pitching?!

The strength of our "offense" is that many of those players are also above average defenders.   Upton/AP and Goodwin when he's in CF are the only really poor defenders.

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I actually think Boston's offender will take a step back this year, so the Angels will have the #3 offense behind New York and Houston. 

I actually anticipate Toronto being #4.

As far as all MLB, the Dodgers, Rockies, Reds, Cubs, and the Phillies all look like they'll score lots of runs. I'd say.... Just throwing a number out there, the Angels will have the 6th ranked offense in MLB. 

Now if they could somehow not be the worst pitching staff in baseball, that would be good 

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1 hour ago, Torridd said:

OK, so how good would you say we currently are from 1 to 30? If we're in the top 12, which I would hazard, why can't we trade some of that excess offense for pitching?!

If we trade the "excess offense" then that would knock the Angels out of a top 12 spot because currently they are built around offense (the Yankees way). Reducing the offense affects four of the five games in the pitching rotation. So it would be subtraction from 4/5ths of the games played. 

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9 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

The Angels will have the best MOTO in baseball but not a top 10 offense. 

Based on anyone who can really project next year’s stats we have a top 5 offense. I triple dog dare you to pull up any of the publicly available projection systems, even ZiPs which is notoriously conservative, and find one where your prediction is even close. I mean where we are even 9th in the league in offense. Seriously try that. When you fail, because you will, Come back and apologize for your stupidity. Then strive to be a more realistic person, which I know is a lot to ask of you. 

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I'd say the offense is in the top 10-12 range but I'm basing this off the past couple years.  The addition of Rendon and Castro should help with the offense.  The Angels didn't get much production from the catching position last year, and before the addition of Castro, the projection was trending even worse.  Guys like LaStella and Fletcher need to prove they weren't flukes and duplicate the production they had last season.  The Angels will need Upton to somewhat revert back to his prior offensive output.  I'm willing to give him a pass on his injury plagued season last year, but he should be on a short leash with Goodwin playing behind him.

Albert is Albert.  I'm not looking for him to find the fountain of youth, but I'm hoping that he gets more off days than ever before, personally.  I know others might not feel that way, but I do.  If Simmons can stay healthy, I'd expect about the same production from him which is fine.  I'm really hoping that Rengifo's experience last year pays big dividends for him.  I'll be expecting more than a .238 BA from him.

The big question is Adell and/or Thiass.  What can they do when they get the chance?  If the potential can balance with the output, this team can be dynamic offensively.  I'm expecting to see a lot of 10-8 games this year because of out pitching situation, of course with the Angels prevailing.

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4 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

I'll be expecting more than a .238 BA from him.

Keep in mind the average AL batting average last year was around .240.

If Rengifo can get the OBP up some, even a .250-.260 BA from him would be huge. Not sure he gets a lot of opportunities though barring trade or injury.

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I think by 2021 we'll have a top 3 offense. 

Jo Adell would most likely a full to half a year of seeing big league pitching, Ohtani will be in year 4 of the big leagues and I think there's a really good shot at us signing Realmuto at C which will significantly boost our lineup. Also, Pujols will either be retired (hoping) or relegated to pinch hitting which means we'll see more of Thaiss or La Stella (if he's still around), hell anyone at that position.

Maybe Marsh is in LF and Upton gets at bats against just lefties and some work at DH on Ohtani's pitching days.

But yeah, a top 5 offense isn't too shabby.

 

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23 minutes ago, GregAlso said:

Based on anyone who can really project next year’s stats we have a top 5 offense. I triple dog dare you to pull up any of the publicly available projection systems, even ZiPs which is notoriously conservative, and find one where your prediction is even close. I mean where we are even 9th in the league in offense. Seriously try that. When you fail, because you will, Come back and apologize for your stupidity. Then strive to be a more realistic person, which I know is a lot to ask of you. 

Arrogant much?

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6 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I think by 2021 we'll have a top 3 offense. 

Jo Adell would most likely a full to half a year of seeing big league pitching, Ohtani will be in year 4 of the big leagues and I think there's a really good shot at us signing Realmuto at C which will significantly boost our lineup. Also, Pujols will either be retired (hoping) or relegated to pinch hitting which means we'll see more of Thaiss or La Stella (if he's still around), hell anyone at that position.

Maybe Marsh is in LF and Upton gets at bats against just lefties and some work at DH on Ohtani's pitching days.

But yeah, a top 5 offense isn't too shabby.

 

An outfield of Marsh-Trout-Adell with Ohtani and Upton splitting time at DH makes me feel all tingly.

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2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Same here! I'm tingly at the moment fantasizing about this.

The one unknown in this is how much, and in what situations, Maddon will use Pujols. He isn't completely without value, but his days as an elite hitter are far behind him. Will the Angels really pay $30M per year for a situational pinch hitter, or will he be penciled into the lineup every day?

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3 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

The one unknown in this is how much, and in what situations, Maddon will use Pujols. He isn't completely without value, but his days as an elite hitter are far behind him. Will the Angels really pay $30M per year for a situational pinch hitter, or will he be penciled into the lineup every day?

We nearly paid that for Hamilton to play for a different team.

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