An Alternate Plan? More Offense? Castellanos, Contreras? Both?

[totdprods]

Piggybacking a bit off of @Second Base's thread about our pitching...

How Much Can The Angels Still Spend?
Arte apparently was willing to sign both Rendon and Cole at one point. Eppler has said we can afford one or two ~$20m+ acquisitions still. The Angels will need at least one vet catcher still too, probably a $5m charge.

At best, the Angels have around $45m of AAV payroll left, though it's certainly possible that amount was based on exceptions regarding certain arms. That could be two ~$20m arms (or one $30m arm and one $10m arm) and a $5m catcher. 
At worst, I imagine they still have around $30m AAV left to commit - $10m-20m for one SP, $5m-10m for another arm, and $5m for a catcher.

Pitching so far has been expensive, the competition intense, and the supply quickly dwindling.

• $30m+ Arms: Ryu, Price - potentially payroll inhibiting, durability concerns
• $20m+ Arms: Keuchel, Samardzija - costly for their production
• $10-$15m Arms: Quintana, Ray, Wood, Teheran, Miley - mostly trade rentals or risky signs
• $5m Arms:
  • Boyd, Gray, DeSclafani, Smith - costly or possibly unavailable in trade 
  • Bailey, Gio, Smyly, Hellickson - numerous flier FAs with durability/production concerns

But there is one part of the market that has remained fairly quiet - hitters. Particularly, that of Nicholas Castellanos, who is projected to get a deal somewhere in between Bumgarner's 5/$85m and whatever Keuchel winds up with. 4-5 years, $15-$20m AAV. 

First, let's acknowledge right away that Castellanos is awful defensively - the Angels did upgrade their infield defense significantly, so this offsets it to a degree. 
Second, let's acknowledge that Castellanos, in RF, would block Adell. Presumably, he is only an option if the Angels feel that he can, at some point in the near future, transition to 1B, or perhaps LF if things get weird with Upton.

Now, let's look at the advantages Castellanos could bring to the club:

• Draft Pick/Prospects: 
  • Doesn't cost a pick, and unlike most SPs remaining, won't require a prospect loss via trade
  • His presence makes Brian Goodwin and Tommy La Stella expendable in trades, again, saving some prospect cost.
  • Presently, he'd block Adell, but at worst, only for 2020. Long-term, if he switches to 1B, he's blocking Thaiss, freeing him up as trade-bait.
  • Worst-case scenario, in the long-term, his presence as a possible future LF/RF could free up Marsh, Adams, or even Adell for a trade for a future ace.
• Production/Future:
  • His last four years: .286/.336/.504/.840, 120 OPS+, 2 WAR, and averaging around 40 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR over 145 games per year.
  • By bWAR or fWAR, he was a 3 WAR player last year - a tick above Calhoun and Goodwin, who were both around 2. So, no real loss there.
    • Likewise, Keuchel was a 1-2 WAR arm last year in an abbreviated season. Most of the remaining arms are ~3 WAR arms, like Castellanos, whose salary is in-line with those remaining.
  • If he can play 1B/RF, he's taking away playing time from Pujols (0.5 WAR), La Stella (1.5 WAR), and Goodwin (2 WAR) - which opens up the latter two as trade bait.
  • Castellanos flourished in his half-season away from lowly Detroit, under the eye of Maddon, and there's a chance his offensive production is about to elevate to a new plateau.
  • He'll only be 28 next year - younger than Goodwin, La Stella, Keuchel, Ryu, Price, Samardzija, and virtually any other name out there we're targeting. The team would get younger.
• Domino Effect on Other Transactions:
  • By signing another long-term contract, the Angels can again more easily structure a back-loaded salary, allowing more wiggle room in 
  • Now fairly expendable, La Stella and Goodwin could immediately become trade bait - which again, saves us some prospect capital. 
    • La Stella, being a FA, would perhaps be of interest in a one-for-one for a team like Cincinnati for DeSclafani, a 2.5 WAR pitcher in his walk year, or a catcher like Tucker Barnhart or Curt Casali, both around 1 WAR catchers. Might require a prospect or two.
    • Goodwin though has three seasons of control remaining, and could be an attractive, affordable OF option - again, requiring some prospects - for rentals such as Robbie Ray or Jose Quintana, or rebuilding teams like Detroit for Robbie Ray.

So what angles could the Angels take?

• Sign Nicholas Castellanos 4/$72m as the Opening Day RF - he'll also play some 1B right off the bat and increase playing time there as Adell ascends, eventually ceding midseason or 2021, moving to 1B. Back-load it slightly, perhaps $15m AAV.
• Sign Dallas Keuchel 4/$72m to anchor the rotation. Again, back-load it slightly, maybe $15m AAV in '20.
• Sign Martin Maldonado/Jason Castro/Josh Phegley 1/$5m or 2/$10m - adds $5m AAV, and these three moves add $35m AAV to the '20 payroll.

Next up, acquire that second arm we still need.

• Option 1: We could just sign a FA remaining to a 1/$5-10m deal
  • Wouldn't be anyone exciting. Think Miley, Gio, Bailey, Chacin, maybe Wood or Teheran
• Option 2: Pull the trigger on a controllable arm with upside who costs ~$5m or less in salary
  • If possible, see if La Stella/Goodwin can represent some of the deal for someone like Boyd, Gray, Smith, or someone not even on the radar.
  • It'll cost legit prospects, but you're only giving them up in this one deal now, and perhaps concentrated, we can get upside/control for the rotation.
• Option 3: Rely heavily on La Stella/Goodwin value for a rental arm, most around the ~$10m salary
  • It'll probably take another piece or two, but look into Robbie Ray, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, Marcus Stroman, Tyler Chatwood, Mike Fiers, Anibal Sanchez
  • Note that by dealing La Stella or Goodwin, you also cut around $2-3m in the deal as well.
• Option 4: Double-down on offense in the most extreme way possible
  • Go back up, and cut the part about signing Maldonado or Castro. Instead...
    • Reach out to the Cubs, offer up a bold, slam-dunk offer of a combo of Marsh, one of Barria/Suarez, one of Rengifo/Thaiss and one of Goodwin/La Stella (-$3m), and get back Contreras (+$5m), Hendricks/Quintana (+~$12m), adding $14m salary.
    • Gives you a decent rotation of:
      • Keuchel, Hendricks/Quintana, Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy
    • And a ridiculous mostly long-term, controlled lineup of:
      • Fletcher 2B, Trout CF, Rendon 3B, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Castellanos RF, Pujols 1B, Contreras C, Simmons SS - with Adell eventually taking RF, bumping Castellanos to 1B, Pujols to part-time 1B/DH/PH

Long-term, this sets up the Angels to have a dominant offense for the next few seasons - they've added Rendon (1.000 OPS?), Castellanos (.850-.900 OPS?), and maybe Contreras (.850 OPS?) to Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Fletcher as the offensive core for the next three years. And that's not even counting Adell! The rotation has a lot of question marks, but there aren't really any obvious slam-dunk arms remaining for a fair or reasonable price. We'd be relying heavily on the kids to develop and serve as depth to any cracks that form, but fortunately, the Angels can look to patch it up again next winter via FA. 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by totdprods

[wopphil]

I have totally come around to Castellanos, provided he is capable of playing first base. If not, I want no part, as he would have no position.

[wopphil]

I could be on board with Keuchel and Castellanos/Castro.  

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I have totally come around to Castellanos, provided he is capable of playing first base. If not, I want no part, as he would have no position.

That's the only way I have any interest - if he can't play 1B, at least by midseason 2020 and no later than 2021 - then he's an easy pass. I could live with him starting the year as the RF and transitioning to 1B. If that doesn't work, perhaps it's 'temporary', and he shifts to LF by end of contract. 

At 28 though, I'd like to think he still has SOME ability to improve defensively.

[jchalos89]

I hope we see catchers in opening roster that are at least better than Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom

[floplag]

I think its an option that must be considered.  We cant force someone to sign here and if the pitching upgrades cannot be had then we must improve thru other means.  We can just say well shit were doomed and let it go.

Its not sexy but lets say for example we ended up with Kuechel and Miley pitching wise.  Add that to Bundy and the return of Ohtani and its not going to win any Cy Youngs but it will be much improved over last year, should eat some innings making he bullpen better and be much more consistent overall.   That having been said, if it comes to that we MUST get more offense.   

Castellanos to me is an option only if hes not only able to but willing to play 1B.  I would rather look at possible 1 yr deals to hold down RF till Adell/Marsh are ready as we will probably need 1B for Upton at some point so id rather not clog that.   Names like Puig or a Calhoun reunion come to mind. 

We must get a C that cant hit a little.  Castro the obvious choice in FA.  I think maybe if we cant trade for a SP that we might trade for a C instead.  Maybe on the Padres kids or Dodgers kids someone to lock down the spot for more than a couple years. 

I for one would be OK with a team that had good/not great pitching, a rock solid defense, and really good hitting.   Even the best pitchers can be worn down by offenses without any spots to rest.  We saw it thru the WS last year where perhaps the 2 best staffs in a WS ever gave up way more runs than expected.  

There are always more than one ways to approach a roster, this might be our best shot while we let the young arms develop into what they might become.   Next years FA class in pitching is damn near as strong as this one, maybe thats where we make that move, or at the deadline when trades are more likely than now.   Next years class includes names like Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana.  

[wopphil]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That's the only way I have any interest - if he can't play 1B, at least by midseason 2020 and no later than 2021 - then he's an easy pass. I could live with him starting the year as the RF and transitioning to 1B. If that doesn't work, perhaps it's 'temporary', and he shifts to LF by end of contract. 

At 28 though, I'd like to think he still has SOME ability to improve defensively.

At the very least, a lineup including Castellanos is fun to think about:

Fletcher

Trout

Rendon

Ohtani

Castellanos

Upton

Adell

Simmons

Castro

That is a lot of runs.

[Jeff Fletcher]

24 minutes ago, totdprods said:

How Much Can The Angels Still Spend?
Arte apparently was willing to sign both Rendon and Cole at one point. Eppler has said we can afford one or two ~$20m+ acquisitions still. The Angels will need at least one vet catcher still too, probably a $5m charge.

I think they probably have $30-35M left in terms of real payroll, at most. I doubt that Cole and Rendon was ever an option. 

 

Probably similar on the AAV, but I think they’d be fine going over the luxury tax a little bit since it’s just a tax on the overage. 

[totdprods]

@wopphil, I'd like to think it could compare to the Twins line-up, and that between Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Keuchel, a FA add, and the kids, we could match their rotation. Sort of like the pre-Cole Yankees too, though their rotation had some legit arms too.

What I like about the Castellanos plan is his relative youth - the line-up is set for a few years - and the fact that the players it might disrupt the most - Goodwin, La Stella, Pujols, Thaiss - are either on their way out already or have some expendable trade value. 

When the Diamondbacks signed Bumgarner, they arguably also increased Robbie Ray's trade value by taking another FA SP off the board. While not the exact same, by signing Castellanos, they're taking another big bat off the board and giving a little more value to guys like Goodwin and La Stella in trade talks. If you can spin one of them off for a rental arm, you maybe only need cough up one mid-tier prospect. 

[CanadianHalo]

I’ve been all for Castellanos since day 1. If we could land him and Keuchel then use prospects to get a catcher and Gray still... I’d be slightly more than intrigued. 

If you’re going to go over the tax and pay the penalty you might as well take advantage of this being your first time and go more than just a little bit over.

But it’s not my money 

[GregAlso]

I don’t see Ryu costing $30 million per year. He is not getting that much if MadBum only got $17 million per. I don’t know where you got that figure at all. Feels made up. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I’ve been all for Castellanos since day 1. If we could land him and Keuchel then use prospects to get a catcher and Gray still... I’d be slightly more than intrigued. 

If you’re going to go over the tax and pay the penalty you might as well take advantage of this being your first time and go more than just a little bit over.

But it’s not my money 

The advantage to Keuchel and Castellanos, as I mentioned above, is you can still back-load their contracts to fit in the catcher and other arm we need, whether it's someone cheaper like Boyd or Gray around $5m, or someone like Ray or Quintana at ~$11m-$13m. The latter would be tighter financially, but only on the books for one year. 

Trading for someone like Price is difficult because you can't really restructure that deal, you're backed into a corner needing Boston to eat x amount of dollars to get his salary where you need it, giving them the leverage in trade talks. Ryu's contract length will probably be too short to really allow a feasible back-loading.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, GregAlso said:

I don’t see Ryu costing $30 million per year. He is not getting that much if MadBum only got $17 million per. I don’t know where you got that figure at all. Feels made up. 

I think he'll be closer to $30m than he will $20m, not necessarily at $30m. 

Since he has perhaps the highest upside of any pitcher available remaining, and Toronto, Chicago, Minnesota all fairly desperate and willing to spend, couple that with the inflated cost of pitching I don't think it's impossible he gets something like 3/$75m or 4/$100m.

Even he does sign for around $20m AAV, it doesn't really change the point of the post either.

[UndertheHalo]

I think the theory here is a good one.  But we’d really be in trouble if he can’t play 1B. 

Edited December 16, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[floplag]

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think the theory here is a good one.  But we’d really be in trouble if he can’t play 1B. 

This... 3 of our top 5 prospects are OF, 2 of which are due this year at some point.  The last thing we need to invest in is another OF unless this person is both willing and able to play 1B.  Even then it might be a mistake as we are likely to want to shift Upton there at some point in the next couple for the duration of his deal

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think the theory here is a good one.  But we’d really be in trouble if he can’t play 1B. 

Yeah, that'd be the absolute dealbreaker to me. I'm assuming Maddon's insight and some scouting and discussions with Castellanos could yield how viable it was before it happened. 

Also contingent would be what trade value Goodwin and La Stella have, because in my mind, the deal for a second arm involving them to some degree is also key to this.

If Goodwin, Barria, and Deveaux can get you DeSclafani and Barnhart, or if La Stella can get you Quintana, etc., deals like that are a big part of this too.

Edited December 16, 2019 by totdprods

[Lou]

is Marsh really on track to be in the majors this year? 

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

is Marsh really on track to be in the majors this year? 

I doubt it. People here tend to overhype prospects.

[UndertheHalo]

I mean developmentally he’s pretty close Adell.  It’s possible. 

[totdprods]

And maybe there's some other in-game benefits in this too, in terms of defensive alignment. 

Castellanos starts in RF, when marine layer is thinnest, arms like Heaney and Keuchel are pushing hitters more to LF/groundball tendencies, with Pujols at 1B. Strongest defense is the infield with contact/groundball pitchers on the mound. 

As the game goes on and we shift to more strikeout-type relievers and the marine layer kills more balls in the evening, Castellanos moves to 1B, giving Pujols more rest over the season, and slotting in Hermosillo or a prime defender in OF when preventing doubles/extra-bases is of more importance.

Obviously very nuanced and cerebral, but Maddon's our manager now. The guy uses relievers at LF/1B.

Edited December 16, 2019 by totdprods

[GregAlso]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think he'll be closer to $30m than he will $20m, not necessarily at $30m. 

Since he has perhaps the highest upside of any pitcher available remaining, and Toronto, Chicago, Minnesota all fairly desperate and willing to spend, couple that with the inflated cost of pitching I don't think it's impossible he gets something like 3/$75m or 4/$100m.

Even he does sign for around $20m AAV, it doesn't really change the point of the post either.

That is not what any of the people who predict contracts like this are saying. I know you think that but where are you coming up with that? You have your analysis based on who you think will spend but have you talked to any of them? People who have don’t predict this. There is a huge gap between Strasburg/Cole and Ryu. Just because they got $35+ million doesn’t mean Ryu will get $30 million. MadBum thought he should get $25+ million per and he didn’t even get close. The experts seem to peg Ryu for around $20 million per and that’s a huge difference. It makes him very affordable and imo a better choice than Keuchel.

As far as spending on a bat first OF, I just think it is a waste. Sign Ryu or Keuchel. Then trade for a pitcher, but if no good ones are available in trade save the money to trade for a good SP during the season when teams fall out of contention. Don’t just spend money to spend.
 

Get a catcher, I think it’ll be a defense first one to improve the staff (stealing strikes and pitch calling and all that) because the bats we have will play. I don’t see Castellanos as much of an improvement over Goodwin and no reason to block Adell. Castellanos would be like having kept Calhoun. We didn’t do that and we won’t get Castellanos. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, GregAlso said:

That is not what any of the people who predict contracts like this are saying. I know you think that but where are you coming up with that? You have your analysis based on who you think will spend but have you talked to any of them? People who have don’t predict this. There is a huge gap between Strasburg/Cole and Ryu. Just because they got $35+ million doesn’t mean Ryu will get $30 million. MadBum thought he should get $25+ million per and he didn’t even get close. The experts seem to peg Ryu for around $20 million per and that’s a huge difference. It makes him very affordable and imo a better choice than Keuchel.

As far as spending on a bat first OF, I just think it is a waste. Sign Ryu or Keuchel. Then trade for a pitcher, but if no good ones are available in trade save the money to trade for a good SP during the season when teams fall out of contention. Don’t just spend money to spend.
Get a catcher, I think it’ll be a defense first one to improve the staff (stealing strikes and pitch calling and all that) because the bats we have will play. I don’t see Castellanos as much of an improvement over Goodwin and no reason to block Adell. Castellanos would be like having kept Calhoun. We didn’t do that and we won’t get Castellanos. 

Bumgarner took less to play in Arizona, been reported he'd need $25m+ to pitch in CA for taxes. Arizona's deal aligned. 

The experts also pegged Cole for $100m and Srasburg less than they received, Rendon $5m less AAV than he received. The experts are often wrong. 

There are desperate teams out there still willing to spend and Ryu is arguably the top FA arm remaining.

[floplag]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

is Marsh really on track to be in the majors this year? 

Hard to say if any of them are of course but i think the expectation is that Adell will be, Marsh maybe... neither are to open the season barring a monster spring i would think.  This is why i am open to a stop gap one year deal for a guy to hold that spot down till that time.   
Goodwin to me is not suited to be an every day player, i could of course be mistaken but there are of course reasons he hasnt been that in his career with last year being by far the most hes ever played.  And while he did a good job i think that role as a 4th OF suits him best. 
I would love to see us maybe look at a Puig with a chip on his shoulder to re-invent himself or even bringing back Calhoun on a 1 yr maybe with option just in case things dont go as planned.
I had this on my list as gravy previously, but right now if were looking at going more offense i think it has a lot more merit. 

[Angel Oracle]

Who would make the better defensive 1B, Stella or Castellanos?     Can they rely on Stella to repeat his 2019 hitting and stay healthy?

[GregAlso]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Bumgarner took less to play in Arizona, been reported he'd need $25m+ to pitch in CA for taxes. Arizona's deal aligned. 

The experts also pegged Cole for $100m and Srasburg less than they received, Rendon $5m less AAV than he received. The experts are often wrong. 

There are desperate teams out there still willing to spend and Ryu is arguably the top FA arm remaining.

It is also reported that Ryu wants to stay in SoCal because his wife likes living here. That will also adjust what he will accept for different locations. We are in a similar position to Arizona signing MadBum. 
 

Once the top two got mega deals everyone readjusted their expectations for FA signings. The guys who do this more than us adjusted up for Ryu for sure but nobody has suggested that high that I’ve seen. So, yes, they were wrong to open the off-season but they’ve adjusted.