Reasons for Optimism: Starting Pitching

[totdprods]

So, admittedly there is a bit of very minor cherry-picking here, but I found the following encouraging.

Andrew Heaney (since 7/6), Griffin Canning (excluding his extra-innings disaster), Jaime Barria (used as a traditional SP), Dillon Peters (used as a SP, incl. w/opener) and Patrick Sandoval have all combined for 247 innings of 4.37 ERA ball in 48 ‘starts’

And that’s excluding Pena (decent) and Suarez (not).

Obviously, five guys combining for less than 50 starts and 259 innings isn’t ideal, but looking at this I think you can see a step in the right direction. 

I agree that the Angels need more than one SP, but if you simply just add Cole (or another top arm) and Ohtani to that group, and some combination of those guys can pitch to similarly production, I think we are in better shape than our PTSD-addled selves may realize.

Edited September 4, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

In those data sets, Heaney has a 3.00 ERA, Barria is at 4.88, Peters is at 4.20, Canning at 4.18, and Sandoval at 5.24 - though his FIP is at 3.30.

[Angelsjunky]

So they've got #3-10 set in the rotation depth chart (adding in Tropeano/Beasley/Castillo as #10) but not #1-2. 

#1-2 will be some combination of Ohtani, free agency, and trades. 

The absolute best-case scenario that is at all feasible would be:

Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler/Odorizzi, Heaney, Canning, etc.

Next best would be swapping Wheeler/Odorizzi for someone like Boyd or Ray, if the Angels can get one of them without giving up Adell or Marsh.

Third best would be Cole and some depth starter, added.

Fourth best would be no Cole, but two of Wheeler, Odorizzi, Boyd, and Ray.

Any of those scenarios gets us to a good to great rotation, depending upon health.

After that we start getting into the budget and/or not as good scenarios: like one second tier free agent starter and a depth starter. That might be OK if Ohtani is healthy, Heaney has a good year, and one of the young guys breaks out, but it requires a lot to go right.

The bad scenarios are that Eppler misses out on the best free agents, only signs a depth starter and trades away too much for a Boyd, who proves his poor second half is closer to his actual level than his first half. But I don't think it will come to this.

[Angelsjunky]

Luiz Gohara would be a wildcard. He could be a total bust, or he could breakout and be really good. More likely the former, but he's worth mentioning. But he might be someone we should just forget about and hope surprises us, like a $20 bill you find in an old pair of jeans.

[Chuck]

45 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So, admittedly there is a bit of very minor cherry-picking here, but I found the following encouraging.

Andrew Heaney (since 7/6), Griffin Canning (excluding his extra-innings disaster), Jaime Barria (used as a traditional SP), Dillon Peters (used as a SP, incl. w/opener) and Patrick Sandoval have all combined for 247 innings of 4.37 ERA ball in 48 ‘starts’

And that’s excluding Pena (decent) and Suarez (not).

Obviously, five guys combining for less than 50 starts and 259 innings isn’t ideal, but looking at this I think you can see a step in the right direction. 

I agree that the Angels need more than one SP, but if you simply just add Cole (or another top arm) and Ohtani to that group, and some combination of those guys can pitch to similarly production, I think we are in better shape than our PTSD-addled selves may realize.

I still think that Ohtani and Heaney should be #3 and #4 respectively in the rotation as far as talent goes, with an open wide battle for #5 from all of our rookies. 

You can't go into 2020 with all of those guys vying for #4 and #5 IMO, unless the Angels add another top tier bat like Rendon or Grandal to offset the uncertainty and lack of production from spots 4 and 5 in the rotation from our rookies. 

Also, let's face it, Heaney has been everything but reliable in terms of production and health.  

[Angel Oracle]

Pitchers like Boyd need to be avoided, unless you can get them for much less than the Kittens seemed to be desiring in return.    5.90 ERA post-ASB, and 14 HRs allowed in his past 32+ innings

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I still think that Ohtani and Heaney should be #3 and #4 respectively in the rotation as far as talent goes, with an open wide battle for #5 from all of our rookies. 

You can't go into 2020 with all of those guys vying for #4 and #5 IMO, unless the Angels add another top tier bat like Rendon or Grandal to offset the uncertainty and lack of production from spots 4 and 5 in the rotation from our rookies. 

Also, let's face it, Heaney has been everything but reliable in terms of production and health.  

Heaney is a mystery.   Sometimes he looks like a #2 starter, and other times he looks like a #4/#5 starter. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I still think that Ohtani and Heaney should be #3 and #4 respectively in the rotation as far as talent goes, with an open wide battle for #5 from all of our rookies. 

If Ohtani recovers from TJ surgery to the condition he was in on his first 2 starts against the A's last season. He will be a #2 starter as long as we sign someone like Cole to the Ace position. He has the potential to be an Ace sown the road, but it would great to remove some of the pressure from him with a proven Ace in the mean time.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Pitchers like Boyd need to be avoided, unless you can get them for much less than the Kittens seemed to be desiring in return.    5.90 ERA post-ASB, and 14 HRs allowed in his past 32+ innings

HRs can be flukey. Strikeouts not so much. I don’t think he’s as good as his first half and not as bad as his second.

Honestly, reminds me of Heaney. May go through an occasional lapse due to giving up too many HR, but the strikeout rate coupled with ability to limit walks and hits should equate a pitcher who is above-average most the times. 

14 HR in ~32 innings is not a typical rate even for a horrible pitcher. It’s bad luck, a lapse in mechanics, or an injury.

Also lol kittens.

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I still think that Ohtani and Heaney should be #3 and #4 respectively in the rotation as far as talent goes, with an open wide battle for #5 from all of our rookies. 

You can't go into 2020 with all of those guys vying for #4 and #5 IMO, unless the Angels add another top tier bat like Rendon or Grandal to offset the uncertainty and lack of production from spots 4 and 5 in the rotation from our rookies. 

Also, let's face it, Heaney has been everything but reliable in terms of production and health.  

Keep in mind that there’s a lot more money coming off the books after 2020 (Cozart, possibly Simmons) and Pujols will have one year left.

Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, Taijuan Walker, Garrett Richards, Trevor Bauer, an Astrofied version of Aaron Sanchez, and possibly Steven Strasburg all might hit FA. As of right now, I think that crop might be more appealing to me than this year’s Wheeler, Odorizzi, Pineda, Wacha, Gibson. 

Meaning, if the Angels relied on internal depth and one big signing this year, and saved prospects and payroll and shopped next year instead for that second FA arm, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised or disappointed. 

[Chuck]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Keep in mind that there’s a lot more money coming off the books after 2020 (Cozart, possibly Simmons) and Pujols will have one year left.

Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, Taijuan Walker, Garrett Richards, Trevor Bauer, an Astrofied version of Aaron Sanchez, and possibly Steven Strasburg all might hit FA. As of right now, I think that crop might be more appealing to me than this year’s Wheeler, Odorizzi, Pineda, Wacha, Gibson. 

Meaning, if the Angels relied on internal depth and one big signing this year, and saved prospects and payroll and shopped next year instead for that second FA arm, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised or disappointed. 

Yeah that's fine. I mean landing Cole and signing someone like Wade Miley would be a boost too. This season we just didn't get many QS's out of our rotation and thus our bullpen got overworked and burned out, with the exception of Robles. 

[Angel Oracle]

56 minutes ago, totdprods said:

HRs can be flukey. Strikeouts not so much. I don’t think he’s as good as his first half and not as bad as his second.

Honestly, reminds me of Heaney. May go through an occasional lapse due to giving up too many HR, but the strikeout rate coupled with ability to limit walks and hits should equate a pitcher who is above-average most the times. 

14 HR in ~32 innings is not a typical rate even for a horrible pitcher. It’s bad luck, a lapse in mechanics, or an injury.

Also lol kittens.

LOL   22-76 in past 98 games is definitely kitten like.    Or is comparing them to kittens insulting to kittens? 

They may be worse now than they were in 2003 (43-119 record), except for the decent 18-20 start.

[Second Base]

Eppler has explained multiple times about the importance of being 10 deep in the rotation. And judging by the fact that he's been so quick to promote anyone on the farm and has been searching for pitching virtually every off-season, he wants better, younger quality in his depth pieces.

The depth we currently have on hand includes Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Sandoval, Suarez and Dillon Peters. I don't include Pena because he requires an opener, and has lost considerable velocity as a starter. 

Eppler has also professed a logical affinity for a 6 man rotation, and with Ohtani returning, it's a guarantee he will look for ways to limit his innings, and a 6 man rotation will be the way here goes about it.

And finally, we have to look at quality. Of the 8 starters the Angels have on hand, how many are legitimately someone you can count on to be part of the rotation?

Ohtani, Heaney and Canning. That's it. Barria has him moments and deserves a shot, but for a team with playoff aspirations. Sandoval too. And with the likelihood of injury occurring in Heaney, and maybe even Canning, those opportunities will come. 

So with only 3 legitimate reason members, I don't think Eppler will sign two free agents, I think he intends to sign three and use a bullpen largely made up of multi-inning capable pitchers, like Felix Pena. 

So yeah, Gerrit Cole is priority one, and I feel every bit as confident that he will sign with the Angels as I was that CJ Wilson would be an Angel as well, which he was. But it's also clear now that Arte will up the payroll. The Angels are not right up against the luxury tax anymore and that line is very likely to further increase in the future.

So after arbitration figures, the Angels likely have 35 million to spend before equaling the 2019 payroll.  But I also think Arte would be capable and willing to push that number closer to 45. I fully expect Gerrit Cole to be paid 25 million of it, which would leave the Angels 20 million left to play with and two pitchers needed. As @Dochalo has mentioned before, that area between 8-15 million a year for starting pitching is just asking for trouble. So I have to figure Zack Wheeler immediately becomes a target. He first everything Eppler looks for in a pitcher, but his ERA this year will likely drive his asking price down to right around 15 million. That leaves 5 million left to find a starting over worth anything at all. And given Michael Wacha's absolutely atrocious showing this year, and his previous success and durability, and the fact that he's a formerly well regarded prospect, which Eppler grabs a lot of those, I figure he can will fall into that 5 million range.

So yeah, I have optimism heading into next year. I'm optimistic that a rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney, Canning and Wacha will be one that's good enough to make this a 90 win team.

[Vlad27Trout27]

There definitely is Optimism with what we have. Heaney has had an ERA under 3 in the 2nd half, Barria has shown he's a capable 4/5 in a rotation, out of his 15 appearance, he's allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of them, in which he's only had 2 starts where he has allowed 3 runs.  Canning has shown the potential to be a 2/3 in the rotation.

So basically;

heaney can be a solid 2/3 or he's on the Il

Barria slot him in the 4/5 spot, but he'll pitch more like a ok 3 or a really good 4, but he'll have a start or two where'e he aswful and his era is screwed. Take his two starts where's he'd allowed 10 and 7 runs, he has an ERA of 4.24, and that considering the terrible defense played yesterday. If SImmons does make the Double Play, and he gets out of the inning, he'd have a ERA under 4. 

Canning is a capable 2/3, breakout Candidate.

Now lets say you add Cole, that 15+ wins added to this team, and Ohtani gives you 120 innings, that another 10 wins. Just bring those guys back gives 15 extra wins!

Zack Wheeler is another option, i would not be surprised Eppler is considering. Big Velo arm, with Plus stuff. What you have to ask what is his market value? he worth 20+ or not and also the length of the contract. Personally i would not do anything longer than 3/4 year at about 15 mil. 

But keuchel maybe? 2/3 yrs ar 11-14 mil?

than lastly Hamel, either he'll take the QA or is will be looking for a 3 yr deal. So maybe offer him a 2yr plus an option?

 

[totdprods]

I think Tanner Roark is a legit buy-low #5 option too. Michael Pineda might not cost as much as Wheeler and could be Wheeler-lite.

I think signing two FA SP, especially if one is Cole, is tough, and three nearly impossible. I still think there will be one trade to bring in a legit SP option.

Signing Cole AND Wheeler AND one of Wacha, Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda whomever seems incredibly unlikely simply because it’s a lot of money, a lot of commitment, even if you get two of those guys on short/one-year deals, and also just given the demand for pitching. 

We had three infielders posting a 1.000 OPS in AAA that we couldn’t find MLB at-bats for...we had so many decent SPs in Burlington and Inland Empire that we essentially used two starters every night on both teams for most of the season. Our outfield depth is set for the next few seasons. It makes all the sense in the world to draw from these pools to acquire  controlled SP who will cost many, many millions less to add to the rotation mix, and I still expect Eppler to pull one off. Heck, even the Stevens for Peters deal netted us a long-term controlled SP depth piece and it wasn’t a major deal. Pena, Bridwell, and Ramírez have given us solid starts for the bulk of a year and cost nothing.

I agree we need three SPs, but I highly doubt we will solve all three by FA.

Edited September 5, 2019 by totdprods

[Chuck]

Strasburg opt out increasingly likely. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/stephen-strasburg-potential-opt-out

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Strasburg opt out increasingly likely. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/stephen-strasburg-potential-opt-out

I don't think he will.

• He can also opt-out next year, when there's no Gerrit Cole or other top arm on the free agent market. 
• His 2020 salary is $25m, and in 2021, it drops back down to $15m. 
• Makes all the sense in the world to me that he'd wait a year, collect his higher salary in 2020, and bask in being the clear #1 FA SP next offseason.

Now, that said, would be great if the Halos nabbed Cole this offseason, shed Cozart and Simmons next offseason, and then signed Strasburg  with Pujols and Upton's contracts coming off in following years to clear money.

Edited September 5, 2019 by totdprods

[Angel Oracle]

As Tots alluded to, I was thinking about Roark last night.   He's been really solid for the A'th since arriving, and was durable (albeit average pitching) for the Nats. 

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

As Tots alluded to, I was thinking about Roark last night.   He's been really solid for the A'th since arriving, and was durable (albeit average pitching) for the Nats. 

I think his age might limit him to one-year. I think he'd be a nice durable cheap option to shore up the back.

[angelsnationtalk]

17 hours ago, Second Base said:

Eppler has explained multiple times about the importance of being 10 deep in the rotation. And judging by the fact that he's been so quick to promote anyone on the farm and has been searching for pitching virtually every off-season, he wants better, younger quality in his depth pieces.

The depth we currently have on hand includes Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Sandoval, Suarez and Dillon Peters. I don't include Pena because he requires an opener, and has lost considerable velocity as a starter. 

Eppler has also professed a logical affinity for a 6 man rotation, and with Ohtani returning, it's a guarantee he will look for ways to limit his innings, and a 6 man rotation will be the way here goes about it.

And finally, we have to look at quality. Of the 8 starters the Angels have on hand, how many are legitimately someone you can count on to be part of the rotation?

Ohtani, Heaney and Canning. That's it. Barria has him moments and deserves a shot, but for a team with playoff aspirations. Sandoval too. And with the likelihood of injury occurring in Heaney, and maybe even Canning, those opportunities will come. 

So with only 3 legitimate reason members, I don't think Eppler will sign two free agents, I think he intends to sign three and use a bullpen largely made up of multi-inning capable pitchers, like Felix Pena. 

So yeah, Gerrit Cole is priority one, and I feel every bit as confident that he will sign with the Angels as I was that CJ Wilson would be an Angel as well, which he was. But it's also clear now that Arte will up the payroll. The Angels are not right up against the luxury tax anymore and that line is very likely to further increase in the future.

So after arbitration figures, the Angels likely have 35 million to spend before equaling the 2019 payroll.  But I also think Arte would be capable and willing to push that number closer to 45. I fully expect Gerrit Cole to be paid 25 million of it, which would leave the Angels 20 million left to play with and two pitchers needed. As @Dochalo has mentioned before, that area between 8-15 million a year for starting pitching is just asking for trouble. So I have to figure Zack Wheeler immediately becomes a target. He first everything Eppler looks for in a pitcher, but his ERA this year will likely drive his asking price down to right around 15 million. That leaves 5 million left to find a starting over worth anything at all. And given Michael Wacha's absolutely atrocious showing this year, and his previous success and durability, and the fact that he's a formerly well regarded prospect, which Eppler grabs a lot of those, I figure he can will fall into that 5 million range.

So yeah, I have optimism heading into next year. I'm optimistic that a rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney, Canning and Wacha will be one that's good enough to make this a 90 win team.

I'm optimistic he goes with signing 3 FA starting pitchers. Cole obviously is priority. Wheeler is possible but that's probably it

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'm optimistic he goes with signing 3 FA starting pitchers. Cole obviously is priority. Wheeler is possible but that's probably it

If he doesn’t sign those two, which three?

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If he doesn’t sign those two, which three?

If he doesn’t sign Cole or Strausburg then for me it has to be Wheeler, Ryu and Miley, although that makes us extremely left handed heavy, with Miley, Ryu, Heaney, Sandoval, Suarez and Peters.  

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I don't think he will.

• He can also opt-out next year, when there's no Gerrit Cole or other top arm on the free agent market. 
• His 2020 salary is $25m, and in 2021, it drops back down to $15m. 
• Makes all the sense in the world to me that he'd wait a year, collect his higher salary in 2020, and bask in being the clear #1 FA SP next offseason.

Now, that said, would be great if the Halos nabbed Cole this offseason, shed Cozart and Simmons next offseason, and then signed Strasburg  with Pujols and Upton's contracts coming off in following years to clear money.

badabing badaboom! Only concern there would be Strasburg's age being 32.

If the Angels wanted to wait it off then seeing Cole, Strasburg, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval/Suarez/Soriano/Barria

[angelsnationtalk]

22 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If he doesn’t sign those two, which three?

It'd have to be the other aces available. Ryu, Bumgarner, or even Wheeler. Then Ordorizzi, Miley, etc. But I doubt he signs three FA starter IF Cole is one of them.

[Docwaukee]

18 hours ago, Second Base said:

Eppler has explained multiple times about the importance of being 10 deep in the rotation. And judging by the fact that he's been so quick to promote anyone on the farm and has been searching for pitching virtually every off-season, he wants better, younger quality in his depth pieces.

The depth we currently have on hand includes Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Sandoval, Suarez and Dillon Peters. I don't include Pena because he requires an opener, and has lost considerable velocity as a starter. 

Eppler has also professed a logical affinity for a 6 man rotation, and with Ohtani returning, it's a guarantee he will look for ways to limit his innings, and a 6 man rotation will be the way here goes about it.

And finally, we have to look at quality. Of the 8 starters the Angels have on hand, how many are legitimately someone you can count on to be part of the rotation?

Ohtani, Heaney and Canning. That's it. Barria has him moments and deserves a shot, but for a team with playoff aspirations. Sandoval too. And with the likelihood of injury occurring in Heaney, and maybe even Canning, those opportunities will come. 

So with only 3 legitimate reason members, I don't think Eppler will sign two free agents, I think he intends to sign three and use a bullpen largely made up of multi-inning capable pitchers, like Felix Pena. 

So yeah, Gerrit Cole is priority one, and I feel every bit as confident that he will sign with the Angels as I was that CJ Wilson would be an Angel as well, which he was. But it's also clear now that Arte will up the payroll. The Angels are not right up against the luxury tax anymore and that line is very likely to further increase in the future.

So after arbitration figures, the Angels likely have 35 million to spend before equaling the 2019 payroll.  But I also think Arte would be capable and willing to push that number closer to 45. I fully expect Gerrit Cole to be paid 25 million of it, which would leave the Angels 20 million left to play with and two pitchers needed. As @Dochalo has mentioned before, that area between 8-15 million a year for starting pitching is just asking for trouble. So I have to figure Zack Wheeler immediately becomes a target. He first everything Eppler looks for in a pitcher, but his ERA this year will likely drive his asking price down to right around 15 million. That leaves 5 million left to find a starting over worth anything at all. And given Michael Wacha's absolutely atrocious showing this year, and his previous success and durability, and the fact that he's a formerly well regarded prospect, which Eppler grabs a lot of those, I figure he can will fall into that 5 million range.

So yeah, I have optimism heading into next year. I'm optimistic that a rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney, Canning and Wacha will be one that's good enough to make this a 90 win team.

I feel like that mid market has come back quite a bit.  

Eovaldi was an obvious overpay at the time.  To me that felt like 'hey, thanks for helping us win the WS.  Here's an extra 20 mil' sort of move.  That was a contract ghost of Christmas past.  

The next highest contract in that mid market was kikuchi at 3/43 and then Happ at 2/34 plus a vesting option.  Those also seemed a bit on the high side.  

Then there was actually some value

Lynn 3/30
Morton 2/30
Anibal Sanchez 2/19
Ryu on a qualifier 
Richards at 1/15 it tbd. 
Fiers at 2/14

Then it was the 1yr guys who were a mixed bag

Cahill, Harvey, Ross, Miley, Estrada, Martin Perez, Matt Shoemaker etc.  

Mostly bad.  

So if I were Billy, I would be targeting the 2-3 year range guys who used to be getting 3, 4 and sometimes 5 years.  

I don't think Wheeler and Odorizzi are going to get 4 years. 
MadBum will likely get 3 from the Giants and maybe 4 from someone else.  
Pineda probably gets 2.  
Ryu will get 3 but he might only get 2 with an option and higher AAV.  
Porcello 1-2.  He might take a 1 to rebuild his value.  
Ivan Nova 1-2.  
Roark 1-2
Wacha 1 to rebuild his value.  
Alex Wood 1-2.  

I think the Angels will get Wheeler at 3/36 very early.  That could bump to about 3/42.  Then they'll turn the focus on Cole while lining up some other options.