Why we have a serious Wild Card chance

[Taylor]

40 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'm sure we all didn't think that in 2002 when we won it all. In reality, i'm just saying we have a chance at making the 2nd WC spot. That's what this post is about.

The Angels were 60-40 on July 25, 2002.

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

The sitting at his computer with his shirt off didn't bother you?

Lol, not at all. 

[eaterfan]

There are too many teams in front of us.

Let’s assume some really really good play. The Angels play their best ball of the season and go 15-7 in the games you have highlighted (4-2, 4-2, 2-1, 5-2). That’s a .680 winning percentage and good for 110 wins over a full season. We gain 2  games on Cleveland and Oakland, 1 on Tampa, and 3 on Boston. That still doesn’t put us in either wildcard spot. We’re still closer but still behind all those teams except Boston. Yeah, one or two of those teams might fall off, but we need three of them to do it. Without absolutely decimating the teams you mentioned it’s pretty much impossible.

[fan_since79]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

The Angels were 60-40 on July 25, 2002.

Back then there was only one wild card and we almost didn't get that. We had a mini losing streak in late September and I believe it was around the 26th when we finally clinched it. 

[totdprods]

Since the first week of the year they’ve been on about a 90-win pace by count, and a 98-win pace in the last two months, since 5/25.

85-win pace on the year. 

Does 90 wins get a WC spot?

[ten ocho recon scout]

27 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

This is why I’m reluctant to spend too much trade currency this season. A low cost acquisition is fine, but I just don’t see the Angels as quite good enough or their window quite open enough to merit it. 

Same.

Its tough. It would be nice to add, see them hustle and end the year on a high after the Skaggs tragedy. IMHO, even the 2cd wildcard and losing that game would be a win.

But if we arent able to trade for someone who is part of the next area, dont bother. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Since the first week of the year they’ve been on about a 90-win pace by count, and a 98-win pace in the last two months, since 5/25.

Man... doesnt feel like it...but that is actually impressive as hell. Especially the first week part.

If this team had ohtani pitching, and skaggs (rip), who knows where wed be....

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Man... doesnt feel like it...but that is actually impressive as hell. Especially the first week part.

If this team had ohtani pitching, and skaggs (rip), who knows where wed be....

This teams a lot better than we usually give it credit for, and it’s really all on the offense and the bullpen.

This is a REALLY good offensive team and maybe the best bullpen we’ve had in years. 

Even buy-low candidates to shore up the rotating cast of AAA guys at the back of the rotation could be a bigger nudge than we’re giving credit for. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[ten ocho recon scout]

Whats even more impressive about the offense is that we started without ohtani and upton. Simmons missed time. La stella hurt. Lucroy didnt pan out. Etc etc.

At first i figured we just got lucky w goodwin and la stella. Then they kept going....

[Dick Enberg]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Even buy-low candidates to shore up the rotating cast of AAA guys at the back of the rotation could be a bigger nudge than we’re giving credit for. 

You know, I can really get behind this thought. Our starting pitching started out so bad, a few decent 3, 4 or 5's, could get us just what we need. a shot at the WC. come August 1st, we'll know a lot more than we know today. going to be an interesting week, on the field and in the GM's office!

[mulwin444]

It's pretty simple....they just play the best they can for as long as they can and they only make trades that can help their chances to win in 2020/2021 as well as 2019.  

Since the Angels have plans past this season, they are unlikely to move any key MLB pieces which means any trade that does happen to help the team this year and beyond will involve prospects.  The play is still for 2020 but you don't want to send the message to your team that you don't believe in them when they've play so well recently.

 

[red321]

Angels current starting rotation

Griffin Canning

Jose Suarez

Jaime Barria

Felix Pena*

(insert random name from AAA here)

 

 

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, red321 said:

Angels current starting rotation

Griffin Canning

Jose Suarez

Jaime Barria

Felix Pena*

(insert random name from AAA here)

 

 

Yeah, there's no way we sniff that wild card spot unless we make two trades. One for a solid #2 type (Stroman, Thor, Bauer, etc.) and then another one for a Mike Leake/Jason Vargas type. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, red321 said:

Angels current starting rotation

Griffin Canning

Jose Suarez

Jaime Barria

Felix Pena*

(insert random name from AAA here)

That says it all right there. Even a super cheap Jordan Lyles/Jason Vargas gives us a better shot than...Tropeano? JC? Peters? Bridwell?

I think they’ll get a #2-3 for ‘20+ with a trio of palatable prospects and then snag a very cheap #5 inning-eater, then use all the internal pitching depth to shore up the pen.

Sign the best FA SP possible this winter to go with our new trade acquisition and go for it.

[angelsnationtalk]

We've been able to be reasonably close while having some of the worst starting pitching we've had in a long time. If we can trade our overflow of infield prospects for even a decent solid 3-4 starter then we already have a better chance of making the 2nd WC spot. 

[red321]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

We've been able to be reasonably close while having some of the worst starting pitching we've had in a long time. If we can trade our overflow of infield prospects for even a decent solid 3-4 starter then we already have a better chance of making the 2nd WC spot. 

I would seriously doubt the Angels are willing to give up anything of value to maybe squeeze into the second wildcard (after jumping over 4-5 teams)

If you end up with someone who can be with the club for a few years...fine, but in reality you are making that deal for 2020 not a 2019 lottery scratcher

 

 

[angelsnationtalk]

7 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah, there's no way we sniff that wild card spot unless we make two trades. One for a solid #2 type (Stroman, Thor, Bauer, etc.) and then another one for a Mike Leake/Jason Vargas type. 

So who would we give up for someone like Stroman, Thor, or Bauer without giving up Marsh or Thaiss and even Rojas or Walsh? I don't think Ward, Jones, Hermosillo would do it. Marsh would have to be involved, but then that impacts our future plans. We're not in win now mode this year. Plus we'd have to overpay since all the other playoff teams will be calling for them. Whoever offers the best package wins the trade. That's why I don't think we trade for the #2 starter until the offseason. 

[angelsnationtalk]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That says it all right there. Even a super cheap Jordan Lyles/Jason Vargas gives us a better shot than...Tropeano? JC? Peters? Bridwell?

I think they’ll get a #2-3 for ‘20+ with a trio of palatable prospects and then snag a very cheap #5 inning-eater, then use all the internal pitching depth to shore up the pen.

Sign the best FA SP possible this winter to go with our new trade acquisition and go for it.

I agree for a #3 starter. The issue is what prospects are given up since we aren't in "win-now" mode. Who would the prospects be without hurting the future? Definitely not Suarez, Canning, Adell or Marsh. Maybe not even Thaiss. Hermosillo/Jones/Ward and Rojas are options but probably not enough

[eaterfan]

7 minutes ago, red321 said:

I would seriously doubt the Angels are willing to give up anything of value to maybe squeeze into the second wildcard (after jumping over 4-5 teams)

If you end up with someone who can be with the club for a few years...fine, but in reality you are making that deal for 2020 not a 2019 lottery scratcher

 

 

I agree with this and it's why I think it will be hard to make a trade. Every team in the race needs one more starting pitcher. There are 5-6 teams who can use any pitcher they acquire this year and next year and thus is worth more to them. So basically we have to pay 2 years worth of prospects for one year's worth of use.

[fan_since79]

September schedule is pretty brutal, with our final 18 games vs. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Yankees, Houston (six games), and Oakland. All are playoff contenders with better records than ours.

If you look at the nine games before that, six of them are against Boston and Oakland. The White Sox are the only 'pushover' in the final 27 games.

 

[Dick Enberg]

17 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

The White Sox are the only 'pushover' in the final 27 games.

 

Thanks! you just jinx us!

[totdprods]

34 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I agree for a #3 starter. The issue is what prospects are given up since we aren't in "win-now" mode. Who would the prospects be without hurting the future? Definitely not Suarez, Canning, Adell or Marsh. Maybe not even Thaiss. Hermosillo/Jones/Ward and Rojas are options but probably not enough

Not Adell or Canning. I’d be open to moving Suarez or Barria in a deal if we were landing someone like Ray, Stroman, or Boyd. Boyd has so much control it’s not a huge difference, Ray has such amazing stuff that he’s worth the risk and could be an extension candidate, and Stroman similarly seems like he’d be very open to an extension and a great clubhouse guy. I expect whoever they acquire will likely get a significant extension offer prior to FA next offseason.

Ward has value to some teams, but not all.  Marsh has a lot of value and is in my mind expendable in the right deal - he’d need to account for a big piece of the value. I don’t think Thaiss has much, unless a team is starved for help at the corners and loves him. Miami might have the need. Sandoval is sort of like Ward - I think some teams will see something they like, others won’t value him anywhere above the next group I detail...Thaiss probably fits here still.

Hermosillo, Walsh, Rojas, Jones...these guys have a touch of value but it’s only a factor based on the acquiring teams need and their interest. 

The last group is the one that tips the balance. It’s the guys who are far off from helping the Angels, or aren’t too far but have high floor and limited ceiling. Maitan, Adams, Bradish, Ortega, Beasley, Martinez, Rivas, Lund, Torres, Hernandez, Pina, Molina, pretty much any A/A+ pitcher, Jackson, Sala, Knowles, Wilson, Rondon, Deveaux. Certain teams with certain timelines and payroll issues will have interest in these high-risk/high-reward hitters, or safe yet average pitchers - you can never have enough pitching! Eppler has shown he knows how to draft, how to sign international talent, how to trade/sign reclamation projects like Rondon, Maitan, Morgan, etc., he can replenish this field before their anticipated 2021-2023 expected time of impact. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Another way to put it, I think the Halos will land a good arm from whatever team values the following thusly:

• Marsh/Barria/Suarez as 45%
• Ward/Thaiss (or Sandoval, if no pitcher above) as 20%
• Walsh/Rojas/Herm/Jones as 10%
• One or two of the last group of A/A+ arms and Rookie bats as 25%

Maybe with the Angels getting a lotto ticket reliever or middling prospect back as well.

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[Duren, Duren]

Deferred gratification is a sucker's game.

Not caring about having a chance to make any playoff spot because the team isn't at World Series caliber defeats the whole point of being a fan.

So what?

You try every year to give fans maximum effort and play as hard as possible. Only one team become a champion. So is following all the others a waste of time because they weren't good enough? 

You never know when opportunity will knock. All the best long term plans and years of preparation and maneuvering can become undone at any time. Unexpected injuries, slumps, failure to meet expectations, Choke jobs, ad infinitum. And even near perfect team construction leaves many fans disgruntled  when their team doesn't win it all.

Look at the Dodgers. Despite all the consecutive playoff appearances they still haven't provided the ultimate reward. And may never, despite the best system and brains (allegedly). 

Their fans can look at the glass as half empty or half full. Gratitude for quality teams year after year. Despondency for never being champs. 

Since the odds of winning it all are tough, I prefer to enjoy the positives and hope for meaningful games in crunch time. Going deep is a bonus at this stage of Angel history.

Expectations will rise when they deserve to, but having a team provide entertainment and progress as much as possible makes the present season worthwhile.

So many fun and intriguing stories this year. Shadowed by the gravity of the Skaggs tragedy.

Since then the team has displayed a certain nobility and collective ethos worth appreciating. Sure, pitchers will be bombed, hitters will slump, prospects will be enigmatic along the way. But this season is special in a unique way.

Also why I want Calhoun to remain through the year. He as much as anyone typifies the character of this group. And that core deserves to bring this drama to closure.

 

 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, rick99gtp said:

It's even worse than I thought.  According to Baseball Reference it's 6.9%. 

NOICE!