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Fast Forward to next offseason


Dtwncbad

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Yes, he's a real target. The Angels are a desireable team to play for - not just because of Trout and Ohtani, but also for a RHP to have a SS like Simmons behind him.

As for how much, it depends upon his 2019 season. If he reproduces 2018, he's a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball and will get a Corbin-esque contract. If he reverts to 2016-17, he's still good but more of a #2. In six years, Cole has only had two #1 caliber years (2015, 2018), so until he does it two years in a row I'm not ready to call him--or pay him as--a #1.

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And we'll also presumably be interested in bringing back Matt Harvey as well. I don't think Harvey will require a commitment the size of Cole, but if he has a good year, they will try to bring him back.

And Trevor Bauer and Jacob DeGrom will be targets in 2020, or during the 2020-2021 offseason.

 

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I'm guessing the Angels will rely more on internal options, but certainly wouldn't count them out on Gerrit Cole if he doesn't sign an extension.  By 2020, we're infusing the rotation with Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez and Patrick Sandoval.  That's in conjunction with Skaggs, Heaney and Barria. 

Even if it ended up being Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Canning and Barria, that's still a good rotation.  But you start throwing names like Cole into the mix and now you're looking at an elite corps of pitchers with upside and depth. 

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8 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Assume Adell is now ready to contribute everyday, assume Ohtani will be ready for a full workload as a pitcher, and assume Canning has shown he can handle a spot in the rotation.

Is Gerrit Cole a real target and what is the most you would be OK with the Angels committing to him?

Cole is represented by the Boras Corp ... probably not a real target. 

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The OF is set.  Even if Adell isn't quite ready, they won't be adding any major free agent OFers any time soon.  

They'll keep Bour for 1b and hopefully Thaiss is ready.  Maybe Walsh and/or Rojas show us something.  

2b will be handled internally.  We'll still have all the same crew we have available now.  

Simmons is still set.  Hopefully he gets extended.  I think he will.  

We could be looking for a 3bman next year.  

C will be open but Kruger could be at least the backup in 2020.  We'll likely grab a vet type guy on top of that.  

The pen should be pretty solid actually.  Maybe Billy goes after one guy.  Maybe not.  

The rotation could need a fair amount of work.  

 

So its potentially 3b, C, a pen arm and rotation help.  

C - Grandal could be back in the mix for 2019 but no premier names otherwise.  Realmuto is a FA in after 2020.  Otherwise, no premier names.  

3b  Rendon possible extends, but he's a Boras client.  Moustakas will be around again.  Donaldson.  Otherwise not much in 2019 unless you can grab Bogaerts and move him to 3b.  Jake Lamb is there after 2020.  Otherwise, there isn't much.  Fingers crossed on Ward.  Maybe we need a rabbits foot and horseshoe for that one as well.  

BP - there will always be pen options. 

SP - 2019 has Cole, Bumgarner, Verlander, Wacha, Wheeler, Sale.  2020 has Bauer, Kyle Hendricks, Robbie Ray, Paxton, Aaron Sanchez, Skaggs, Stroman, Walker.  

There is more pitching coming available for the next two years than anything else.  That bodes well for us.  

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7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

The OF is set.  Even if Adell isn't quite ready, they won't be adding any major free agent OFers any time soon.  

They'll keep Bour for 1b and hopefully Thaiss is ready.  Maybe Walsh and/or Rojas show us something.  

2b will be handled internally.  We'll still have all the same crew we have available now.  

Simmons is still set.  Hopefully he gets extended.  I think he will.  

We could be looking for a 3bman next year.  

C will be open but Kruger could be at least the backup in 2020.  We'll likely grab a vet type guy on top of that.  

The pen should be pretty solid actually.  Maybe Billy goes after one guy.  Maybe not.  

The rotation could need a fair amount of work.  

 

So its potentially 3b, C, a pen arm and rotation help.  

C - Grandal could be back in the mix for 2019 but no premier names otherwise.  Realmuto is a FA in after 2020.  Otherwise, no premier names.  

3b  Rendon possible extends, but he's a Boras client.  Moustakas will be around again.  Donaldson.  Otherwise not much in 2019 unless you can grab Bogaerts and move him to 3b.  Jake Lamb is there after 2020.  Otherwise, there isn't much.  Fingers crossed on Ward.  Maybe we need a rabbits foot and horseshoe for that one as well.  

BP - there will always be pen options. 

SP - 2019 has Cole, Bumgarner, Verlander, Wacha, Wheeler, Sale.  2020 has Bauer, Kyle Hendricks, Robbie Ray, Paxton, Aaron Sanchez, Skaggs, Stroman, Walker.  

There is more pitching coming available for the next two years than anything else.  That bodes well for us.  

For me, Cole is far and away the best target of that group.

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8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

 3b  Rendon possible extends, but he's a Boras client.  Moustakas will be around again.  Donaldson.  Otherwise not much in 2019 unless you can grab Bogaerts and move him to 3b.  Jake Lamb is there after 2020.  Otherwise, there isn't much.  Fingers crossed on Ward.  Maybe we need a rabbits foot and horseshoe for that one as well.  

My personal choice among potentially available position players would be Xander Bogaerts.   Yes, he currently plays SS, but his glove has always left something to be desired (he's not a butcher but he's not league average), and 3B may or may not still be a large gaping hole for us.   

Mostly, I like Bogaerts because he will all of 28 years old in the 2020 season.... still in his prime and more athletic than most of the other options, also two years younger than Rendon.   Bogaerts isn't perfect.... his home away splits show he's benefited from playing in Boston (still a .800 road OPS in 2018), and he's had some injuries (less than Rendon), but he runs well, has some pop, gets on base at a solidly above average clip, and runs better than most of the other alternatives.   It's also highly unlikely the Red Sox can compete for his serviced given Mookie Betts, Sale, Benetendi will all need to be locked up -- possibly Porcello as well.

Pitching wise,  Cole, Wheeler, Wacha, Wood will all be available and on the right side of 30 still I believe...

Given the number of extensions we have seen since Harper signed it's anyone's guess who will actually ever be available -- so -- keep building the freaking farm.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Eppler hasn't put money on a long term pitching contract so far and I believe the reason is volitility. When you plunk large money down a ucl ligament can devalue that contract by two years depending on when the injury occurs. That really cuts deep into the rotation because you've allocated your surplus cash on one pitcher.

What I'm saying is Cole will not be an Angel and neither would be any other top of the rotation big money pitcher. Bullpen management is the way to winning rather than spending big on a Yu Darvish. The 7 inning Ace pitchers are all but a thing of the past. 

If the Angels aquire a top of the rotation value pitcher it's going to be through trade and someone with team control. 

 

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1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Eppler hasn't put money on a long term pitching contract so far and I believe the reason is volitility. When you plunk large money down a ucl ligament can devalue that contract by two years depending on when the injury occurs. That really cuts deep into the rotation because you've allocated your surplus cash on one pitcher.

What I'm saying is Cole will not be an Angel and neither would be any other top of the rotation big money pitcher. Bullpen management is the way to winning rather than spending big on a Yu Darvish. The 7 inning Ace pitchers are all but a thing of the past. 

If the Angels aquire a top of the rotation value pitcher it's going to be through trade and someone with team control. 

 

I certainly hope that isn’t the case.  I would hate to give up the farm pieces to acquire an Ace.  

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Cole is going to be the popular target im sure, but i think this year needs to tell us about the immediate future of the organization at 3B and C for the next 3-5 as much as i think we need to worry about signing a leader of the rotation. 
I dont think they see Lucroy as a long term answer, just another mercenary to buy time which is fine, similarly Cozart as he seems to have issues staying on the field.  And of course the jury is of course still out on Ward.
I dont think this team makes a real run till we have those answers even more than a front line SP.  
Just my 2 cents. 

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13 minutes ago, floplag said:

Cole is going to be the popular target im sure, but i think this year needs to tell us about the immediate future of the organization at 3B and C for the next 3-5 as much as i think we need to worry about signing a leader of the rotation. 
I dont think they see Lucroy as a long term answer, just another mercenary to buy time which is fine, similarly Cozart as he seems to have issues staying on the field.  And of course the jury is of course still out on Ward.
I dont think this team makes a real run till we have those answers even more than a front line SP.  
Just my 2 cents. 

I agree that you can make the post season if you have very few holes in your everyday line up.  That being said you can’t really win it all with holes in your pitching staff, which in the post season is mostly bullpen these days.  I think the Yankees are going to win a shit ton of games during the regular season, and with that pen I think they can win it all, assuming the pen performs and we all know that because of volatility that isn’t a sure thing.  

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Michael Wacha seems like he could be a target - he has just enough Nate Eovaldi-vibe for me to think the Angels will be real interested. Cole is obviously the most impact target but he's going to be damn expensive. I think he's only realistic if he legitimately wants to be in SoCal, especially as an Angel which isn't entirely out of the question, as he grew up an Angels fan - his family had season tix. If Bauer is committed to going only with one-year contracts, he'd be an interesting target once he hits FA as well. An Ohtani/Cole/Bauer trio in the early 2020's would be pretty fierce.

I agree with @Blarg that a trade for an ace would be more likely than signing one. We have the prospect depth - especially with Trout now locked up - to be in a place to deal from that midseason or next offseason. There will be a new draft class added to the mix by then, some measurement on our next wave of guys in the lower-levels (Adams, Jackson, Maitain, Yan, Soriano, Deveaux, Knowles, all the '18 SPs taken), and ideally some clarity on how our upper-level guys (Rengifo, Thaiss, Ward, Jones, Marsh, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval) are going to settle.

That said, there's quite a variety of SPs set to hit FA right now. 
Aside from Cole, you have potential aces like Bumgarner or Sale with Verlander being a theoretical fit too.
Wacha, Zack Wheeler, Michael Pineda, Alex Wood all have some youth and upside to them. Ryu and Smyly might as well.
Martin Perez, Gibson, Odorizzi, Porcello, Roark, Moore, Nova, Miley, Teheran, and Chacin all have a shot to be as good as we'd expect from Cahill or Harvey this year, and they too fit in that tier. 

Personally, I still believe a rotation of five good #3 types is as good as one with an ace, a mid, and three #5 SPs, so I'm open to the Angels simply stacking the deck with strong, durable arms instead of going all-in on Cole or trading for a big name. Jameson Taillon still strikes me as someone to watch. Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon as well.

We're in a great spot and have a lot of flexibility as the year plays out.

Edited by totdprods
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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I agree that you can make the post season if you have very few holes in your everyday line up.  That being said you can’t really win it all with holes in your pitching staff, which in the post season is mostly bullpen these days.  I think the Yankees are going to win a shit ton of games during the regular season, and with that pen I think they can win it all, assuming the pen performs and we all know that because of volatility that isn’t a sure thing.  

i think that depends on the quality of the pitching.   A great bullpen can save an average starting staff.  Great starters can make the bullpens job easy.  Theres a lot of ways to skin that cat. 
Overall to me ive never been a fan of the so-called ace, its too many eggs in the proverbial basket and they cost to much and contribute nothing the other 4 out of 5 days.   
Give me a staff of good, but not necessarily great, starters, with a quality pen and a solid lineup and ill take my chances. 

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1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Make sure to get Simba's contract extended first, before trying to add one star from elsewhere.

Infield leaders with generational SS defense (career so far) and .750 OPS (2017-2018) are rare.   He's only 31 for most of 2021.  

Five years/$100 million with a 6th year option?

20M a year?  In 2019 the highest paid shortstop is making 15M a year.  In the coming years Lindor and Correa will definitely eclipse that while setting the market and Turner/Baez should be in for nice paydays at some point.  I like Simmons and think his skills should age well but you're talking about giving top money to a guy who will be 31 and will start to decline simply due to age.  

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5 hours ago, True Grich said:

I won't be shocked if Cole signs an extension with the Astros. 

I wouldn’t be either. The Astros have been very good about developing their talent while augmenting where needed. The talk of no negotiations yet may be the same as when Trout said something similar. He just doesn’t want to talk about it in the media.

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