Trout project done. Now do you sign Keuchel?

[T.G.]

And I'm just having a little fun...  It's not personal.

[Dtwncbad]

11 minutes ago, True Grich said:

And I'm just having a little fun...  It's not personal.

I didnt take it personally but thanks for the extra note of clarification.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

There are a hundred good points on Keuchel that conclude he isn't great, isn't dominant, and gives up many hits.

And yet exactly as he is, his value to THIS starting rotation would be huge.

He isn't getting the contract he or his agent thought he would get.  I don't know what he will get.  We will see.  But if I were Eppler I would be paying attention and ready if the price drifting into a territory that matched his value to this rotation.

 

do you believe that Keuchel helps us enough this year to secure or markedly increase our WC chances?  

enough to where, even at a lesser cost than his current ask you would be ok with not only losing the pick, losing the intl money but also potentially have it take us out of the running for a better pitcher next year?  

I know every player is different and I have mentioned this many times, but the biggest sucker bet in all of free agency is the contract of 3 or more years to a starter who isn't in the first tier and on the wrong side of 30.  

We'd essentially be betting that this one guy would buck every possible trend in terms of recent aging curves.  

It's where teams often get in trouble.  Signing a guy that's not their ideal choice and they ignore or excuse the red flags because that player might offer an advantage over what they have.  

For me, I'd rather hold out for the chance of someone better.  

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Dochalo said:

do you believe that Keuchel helps us enough this year to secure or markedly increase our WC chances?  

enough to where, even at a lesser cost than his current ask you would be ok with not only losing the pick, losing the intl money but also potentially have it take us out of the running for a better pitcher next year?  

I know every player is different and I have mentioned this many times, but the biggest sucker bet in all of free agency is the contract of 3 or more years to a starter who isn't in the first tier and on the wrong side of 30.  

We'd essentially be betting that this one guy would buck every possible trend in terms of recent aging curves.  

It's where teams often get in trouble.  Signing a guy that's not their ideal choice and they ignore or excuse the red flags because that player might offer an advantage over what they have.  

For me, I'd rather hold out for the chance of someone better.  

I have no problem with how you look at it.

But I also can't ignore the narrative that the Angels (without Keuchel) might have a shot at the wildcard.

I think that "shot" is reliant on stability in the rotation and no significant injuries.

Keuchel certainly helps the odds of stability in the rotation.

Look I am fine without him.  I am not specifically a fan of this player.

I am just noting that what he DOES offer would be valuable to this starting rotation.

It isn't hard for me to imagine the Angels winning 10 more games with Keichel than without him.

And whether or not they make the wildcard isnt really the determining factor for me.

If there are 34 games Keuchel is starting over Tropeano or some other hack, I am far more interested in those games.

But I fully understand the dollars would have to be right and losing a pick matters.

 

[Lou]

15 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

It isn't hard for me to imagine the Angels winning 10 more games with Keichel than without him.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Lou said:

Maybe.

But maybe not.  Keuchel could go 14-10, while a motley crew of Angel 5th starters could be 7 games under .500.

It's not THAT crazy.  And logging 190 innings over a shitload of 5th starter 5 inning guys can have a positive impact on the Angel bullpen being more productive on days Keuchel iant starting.

I won't say you are wrong.  Keuchel isn't special.  But he has value.

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe.

But maybe not.  Keuchel could go 14-10, while a motley crew of Angel 5th starters could be 7 games under .500.

It's not THAT crazy.  And logging 190 innings over a shitload of 5th starter 5 inning guys can have a positive impact on the Angel bullpen being more productive on days Keuchel iant starting.

I won't say you are wrong.  Keuchel isn't special.  But he has value.

not a 10 WAR value. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

not a 10 WAR value. 

You misunderstood.

If Keuchel went 14-10 instead of some hack or hacks in the 5th spot going 6-12, what is the impact in the team won loss record?

If you do the math you see 8 more wins but if you consider a fresher bullpen in all other games it is not a stretch to think you pick up a few more wins.

Whatever.  The Angels are not signing him and probably shouldn't at the prices estimated.

I guess I just admit my fear of the starting pitching instability potentially making this a meaningless boring season by May.

 

[Lou]

he only won 12 games last year on an Astros team that was 6th in runs scored in MLB. 

 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

he only won 12 games last year on an Astros team that was 6th in runs scored in MLB. 

 

How many games did Tropeano win?

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You misunderstood.

If Keuchel went 14-10 instead of some hack or hacks in the 5th spot going 6-12, what is the impact in the team won loss record?

If you do the math you see 8 more wins but if you consider a fresher bullpen in all other games it is not a stretch to think you pick up a few more wins.

Whatever.  The Angels are not signing him and probably shouldn't at the prices estimated.

I guess I just admit my fear of the starting pitching instability potentially making this a meaningless boring season by May.

 

and all of that could end up being true.  but the risk is that Keuchel helps but not nearly to the extreme you are referring and he keeps getting worse to the point we are locked in on a 33yo pitcher with an era in the mid 4's who makes 18 mil per.  

btw, an 8 win delta because of Keuchel is koo koo talk.  I can see why you want him if you think that's realistic.  

[Docwaukee]

are we really discussing an exchange of pitcher wins as an indicator of Keuchel's potential value?  

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

and all of that could end up being true.  but the risk is that Keuchel helps but not nearly to the extreme you are referring and he keeps getting worse to the point we are locked in on a 33yo pitcher with an era in the mid 4's who makes 18 mil per.  

btw, an 8 win delta because of Keuchel is koo koo talk.  I can see why you want him if you think that's realistic.  

The discussion honestly helps me recognize how unsatisfied I am with the rotation far more than me wanting Keuchel specifically. 

[GrittyVeterans]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You misunderstood.

If Keuchel went 14-10 instead of some hack or hacks in the 5th spot going 6-12, what is the impact in the team won loss record?

If you do the math you see 8 more wins but if you consider a fresher bullpen in all other games it is not a stretch to think you pick up a few more wins.

Whatever.  The Angels are not signing him and probably shouldn't at the prices estimated.

I guess I just admit my fear of the starting pitching instability potentially making this a meaningless boring season by May.

 

Some kind of mental gymnastics occurring here. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

are we really discussing an exchange of pitcher wins as an indicator of Keuchel's potential value?  

No.  But how many games a team wins does matter more than anything else.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

The discussion honestly helps me recognize how unsatisfied I am with the rotation far more than me wanting Keuchel specifically. 

being unsatisfied with the rotation is fair.  

two years from now you'd be very unsatisfied with Keuchel.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

No.  But how many games a team wins does matter more than anything else.

yes, but that's not attributable to one player.  

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

being unsatisfied with the rotation is fair.  

two years from now you'd be very unsatisfied with Keuchel.  

That's a fair prediction.  And if he signed a 3 year deal, the Angels would have one overpaid starter that year and tins of money to have that not matter.

Edited March 20, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[Duren, Duren]

I like the way Eppler is dealing with the pitching staff now. No need to force things with a big name veteran signing.

Veteran pitchers are often risky, both because of accrued wear and tear and diminishing skills and stamina. You may get two, maybe three solid to elite seasons from a pitcher over thirty who shouldered a heavy workload but beyond that it's a very expensive gamble.

Of course if the team is a player or two away the reward may be worth the risk. But the Angels have to think longer term.

With Ohtani presumably rotation ready next season that pencils in a quality starting addition. It is possible that at least one of this season's new one year contract pitchers prove worth keeping into the future. And the evolution of the younger pitchers also should sort out a core for a decent starting rotation in a year or two.

I have a feeling that Harvey may be a positive surprise of the new additions. He rebounded in Cinci enough to intrigue. With careful use and management he could possibly squeeze out 150 plus innings. If his stuff is even something like last year and his baseball focus is strong he may revive his career.

[Lou]

18 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

How many games did Tropeano win?

Tropeano and Pena combined to go 8-11 for a total salary of just over $1M.

Keuchel went 12-11 (on the Astros, mind you) and will cost, what, $10M + a draft pick + int'l slot money? 

 

[Blarg]

Look, I understand some of what DT is advocating and that is innings. Something the Angels pitching staff has lacked since Weavers best days. 

2018 Heaney 188 innings no one else close

2017 Nolasco 181 innings no one else close

2016 Weaver 178, Shoemaker 160

2015 Richards 207, Santiago 180

2014 Weaver 213, Wilson 175, Richards 168

Guess which teams won 85+ games?

Pitching deeper into games keeps lesser relief pitchers on the bench or rests some of the better arms. Kuechel offers inning pitched, a commodity of value. 

Where we hit the wall on that commodity is valuation of not only dollars spent but assets lost in draft pick, slot money, international slot money. It makes an innings eater less enticing. 

You spend those other assets when you receive a bonus value to the free agent purchase. Kuechel only offers a singular value and no bonus value. Unfortunate since he is what the Angels need but not at the cost. Without the other assets bundled in you spend money, even over valuation since it's only money. 

 

[Lou]

26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

are we really discussing an exchange of pitcher wins as an indicator of Keuchel's potential value?  

Pujols has averaged 95 RBI over the last 5 years.

[Dtwncbad]

If you guys read between the lines it is obvious I am just paranoid this staff is going to be hurt and/or suck, and the Angel bullpen is going to be into the game by the 5th inning four and five game in a row. . . 

It is easy to be starving for an innings water when this is your concern.

At 3/47ish I am all over it.  And yet that is probably not likely which makes all the counterpoints correct.

It is often said that the year if real success often comes one year earlier than expected.

Having Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Keuchel, Canning in 2020 would not upset me.

I would prefer to sign Cole next year but my guess is he will be a whole lot more expensive than most want to spend.

 

[Blarg]

I caution anyone being set on the Angels spending big on free agent pitchers. Too much injury volitility to invest big in arms. The Angels are going to promote from within.

That is where payroll flexibility allows them to afford arbitration and extending Simmons to play shortstop on a contract extension. Trying to out bid the Yankees for Cole is not going to be part of the next hot stove. 

 

[beatlesrule]

It's pretty crazy that he is still a free agent.