2020 Offseason predictions.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

2019:
The Angels sign Mike Moustakas 2/yr $18m, a vet RP for 1/$4m, and a couple ST invites to the staff to round out the offseason. 
In ST, following Machado's 8/$240m and Harper's 10/$325m signings, the Angels announce a 9-yr, $360m extension for Trout, with opt-outs following'21 & '23.
Harvey bounces back but misses July to injury, Cahill is DLed often, Lucroy is okay, Bour is not. 
Skaggs and Heaney are healthy, but not aces. Barria struggles. The bullpen is solid. Canning has TJS. 
Adell kicks ass covering for Calhoun who pulls a hammy, but goes back to AAA midseason.
The offense is okay, but the staff continues to struggle, and the Angels are 10 back in July.
Neck and neck with Washington, Atlanta goes all in, acquiring Simmons and Skaggs at the deadline for Toussaint, Riley, and Kyle Muller. It's the Angels only deadline deal.
Cozart moves to SS, Fletcher takes over at 2B, Rengifo becomes the UT IF.
Harvey, Heaney, Cahill, Toussaint, and Suarez round out the Angels rotation.
The Angels rally back in Aug./Sept. and win 86, but fall short of the WC.

2020:
Harvey and Lucroy re-sign for similar deals, Cahill and Calhoun are let go.
Pujols announces he is retiring...after the 2020 season.
The Angels sign Alex Wood and Marsh, Suarez, and Deveaux are dealt for Michael Fulmer.
Ohtani, Heaney, Fulmer, Harvey, Wood make up the rotation, with Toussaint, Muller, Sandoval, and Barria slotted for AAA.
Moustakas, Cozart, Fletcher, and Thaiss make up the projected IF, with Riley, Rengifo, Jones, and Ward lined up behind them in AAA.
Upton, Trout, and Adell are the projected OF, with a decent 2019 earning Hermosillo the 4th. 
The Angels win 93 and take the WC, lose ALCS to Boston (who loses Betts to the Phillies via FA in the offseason).
Harvey, Lucroy, Cozart, Moustakas all walk in the offseason. Pujols retires. Angels sign deGrom and Zunino.

They go into 2021 with deGrom, Ohtani, Fulmer, Heaney, Toussaint as a fantastic top 5 with Muller, Barria, and Canning as depth. 
Riley takes over 3B, Fletcher at SS, Jones at 2B, Ward/Thaiss at 1B, Zunino at catcher.
Upton, Trout, Adell in the OF, Hermosillo backing up.

Have you pondered writing erotic novels because I visualized that entire timeline....and I liked it...

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Really like the move of Upton going to 1B/DH at some point. That's why for some time I though adding Harper and moving Adell to LF would have worked but that's too much $. 

My one thing I'd mention is at some point we will have a log jam in the infield. If Ward remains at 3B or competes at 1B with Thaiss then we still have Fletcher, Rengifo, and Jones for 3B/2B. Someone would have to be moved. Specially if Hermosillo and Marsh will be competing in the OF to push Upton to 1B. That also pushes the time against Thaiss. 

Would you be open to pairing Skaggs or Heaney with one of them (Fletcher, Regifo, Hermosillo, etc.) and a lower end prospect to flip for a starting catcher? Lucroy is, at best, a backup by then.

If I had to picture a way it rolls out, I'd say Upton slows down by a lot in 2019, he's just reaching that age, and the Angels have prospects.  With Pujols retiring, and Matt Thaiss or Taylor Ward not lighting the world on fire, but Brandon Marsh killing it in the upper minors, in the offseason between 2020 and 2021 (2021 will be Upton's age 33 season, by which time I think we'll need to rest his legs to keep his bat in the lineup), the Angels will approach him with the idea of getting some reps in at 1B, DH and LF.  Basically playing 1B the majority of the time, but the twice a week Ohtani isn't DHing, Upton will DH.  And whenever one of Trout, Adell or Marsh need a rest in the OF, he can go out to LF. 

And 3B.....I think Taylor Ward doesn't run away with it and Cozart is cut loose after 2019.  So coming into 2020, I think Jahmai Jones wins the 2B job outright, and Rengifo and Fletcher both outperform Ward.  Eventually, Rengifo will be the starting 3B and Fletcher will soak up a lot of starts there and at 2B as a super-utility player.  But come 2022, it won't matter anyway because Kevin Maitan will be the starting 3B. So either Rengifo or Fletcher are going to be dealt.  Ward too. 

So basically in 2021....

C Lucroy, 1B Upton, 2B Jones, SS Simmons, 3B Rengifo, UT Fletcher, LF Adell, CF Trout, RF Marsh, DH Ohtani

And then right around 2022, Trout will start logging more starts in LF so that he doesn't have to cover as much room, because Adell and Marsh can definitely handle CF. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

2019:
The Angels sign Mike Moustakas 2/yr $18m, a vet RP for 1/$4m, and a couple ST invites to the staff to round out the offseason. 
In ST, following Machado's 8/$240m and Harper's 10/$325m signings, the Angels announce a 9-yr, $360m extension for Trout, with opt-outs following'21 & '23.
Harvey bounces back but misses July to injury, Cahill is DLed often, Lucroy is okay, Bour is not. 
Skaggs and Heaney are healthy, but not aces. Barria struggles. The bullpen is solid. Canning has TJS. 
Adell kicks ass covering for Calhoun who pulls a hammy, but goes back to AAA midseason.
The offense is okay, but the staff continues to struggle, and the Angels are 10 back in July.
Neck and neck with Washington, Atlanta goes all in, acquiring Simmons and Skaggs at the deadline for Toussaint, Riley, and Kyle Muller. It's the Angels only deadline deal.
Cozart moves to SS, Fletcher takes over at 2B, Rengifo becomes the UT IF.
Harvey, Heaney, Cahill, Toussaint, and Suarez round out the Angels rotation.
The Angels rally back in Aug./Sept. and win 86, but fall short of the WC.

2020:
Harvey and Lucroy re-sign for similar deals, Cahill and Calhoun are let go.
Pujols announces he is retiring...after the 2020 season.
The Angels sign Alex Wood and Marsh, Suarez, and Deveaux are dealt for Michael Fulmer.
Ohtani, Heaney, Fulmer, Harvey, Wood make up the rotation, with Toussaint, Muller, Sandoval, and Barria slotted for AAA.
Moustakas, Cozart, Fletcher, and Thaiss make up the projected IF, with Riley, Rengifo, Jones, and Ward lined up behind them in AAA.
Upton, Trout, and Adell are the projected OF, with a decent 2019 earning Hermosillo the 4th. 
The Angels win 93 and take the WC, lose ALCS to Boston (who loses Betts to the Phillies via FA in the offseason).
Harvey, Lucroy, Cozart, Moustakas all walk in the offseason. Pujols retires. Angels sign deGrom and Zunino.

They go into 2021 with deGrom, Ohtani, Fulmer, Heaney, Toussaint as a fantastic top 5 with Muller, Barria, and Canning as depth. 
Riley takes over 3B, Fletcher at SS, Jones at 2B, Ward/Thaiss at 1B, Zunino at catcher.
Upton, Trout, Adell in the OF, Hermosillo backing up.

Billy Eppler trading away the greatest defensive SS maybe ever, is akin to Billy Eppler willingly castrating himself.  The man loves defense.  

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Billy Eppler trading away the greatest defensive SS maybe ever, is akin to Billy Eppler willingly castrating himself.  The man loves defense.  

Not to mention Simba's solid hitting the past two seasons

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'd say Upton slows down by a lot in 2019, he's just reaching that age, and the Angels have prospects.  With Pujols retiring, and Matt Thaiss or Taylor Ward not lighting the world on fire, but Brandon Marsh killing it in the upper minors, in the offseason between 2020 and 2021 (2021 will be Upton's age 33 season, by which time I think we'll need to rest his legs to keep his bat in the lineup.

And people are saying the Angels need to do all they can to keep Trout around until he’s 35+, haha. I’m just messing. But I think Upton will be fine and solid a little longer than folks expect him to break down by.

18 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Billy Eppler trading away the greatest defensive SS maybe ever, is akin to Billy Eppler willingly castrating himself.  The man loves defense.  

I agree. But I also disagree with the general board notion that a Simmons extension is a foregone conclusion or a necessity.

I know the difference between Simmons and Fletcher’s defense is vast - and that’s saying something because Fletcher is plus-plus in his own right - but is it worth a difference of $15-20m, pitching prospects, payroll flexibility, and age?

Simba is honestly more entertaining to watch to me than Trout even. In no way am I selling him short here. Just trying to be cognizant of the fact that Simba still has insane trade value which is going to decrease very quickly as he nears FA so if there ever was any window to even slightly consider it, up until the ‘19 deadline is about it. Anything after that I’d want to keep him. Return wouldn’t be worth it. 

But if the starters struggle again, especially any major issues surface with younger guys like Canning, Suarez, Sandoval, Barria, or others on the farm, and a desperate Atlanta or San Diego comes calling offering up multiple MLB-ready, high-upside SP prospects, Billy should at least see how much they’d overpay, especially if Fletcher, Jones, and Rengifo are playing well, and if Trout has signed an extension.

Edited January 8, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Not to mention Simba's solid hitting the past two seasons

This is actually one of the most intriguing things to me for the next season or two - is this Simmons’ plateau, which is very good still, or is there one more corner to turn?

[angelsnationtalk]

I think Upton slows down as well. Just like we saw in 2018...

I really hope Jones can stud up and dominate as he works his way up. He should have figured second base out a lot more now so he can focus on his hitting this year.

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Yes, you're right, but I'm looking at actual payroll which is around $185 currently. Which includes Arb and 0-3's.

I like the Gerrit Cole addition. And you're right, hopefully Ward can prove he can play 3B. However, it's looking more like an option to move to 1B. Unless you want to move Fletcher to 3B. Good defensively and arm could work. 

I do believe if Pujols retires on his own then the money is off the books. 

Except you are not looking at the correct numbers.

I'll post the link to the correct numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml

25-Man Payroll is the only number you should look at, the 40-Man is calculated at the end of the year, and is basically useless info in the beginning.

Here's a quick summary -- CASH PAYROLL - 25-Man Roster

2019 / 2020

Trout $34.083 / 34.083

Pujols $28 / 29

Upton $18 / 21

Simmons $13 / 15

Cozart $12.67 /12.67

Harvey $11 /0

Calhoun $10.5 / 1

Cahill $9 / 0

Lucroy $3.35 / 0

Bour $2.5 / Arb Eligibles

=$142,103,000 in 10 guaranteed contracts for 2019 / $112,753,000 for 6 in 2020.

Arbitration Eligible Players = $17,000,000-$18,000,000 for 8 players in 2019 /  $38-39,000,000 for 12 guys in 2020 (not all will be kept)

7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000 / 7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000

=$164,128,000 in 2019 Cash Payroll / $155,778,000 in 2020 Cash Payroll

 

AAV Payroll (40-Man) reduces / increases the following numbers

Trout -10 in 2019 / -10 in 2020

Pujols -4 in 2019 / -5 in 2020 / - 6 in 2021

Upton +3.2 in 2019 / + 0.2 in 2020 / -1.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

Simmons -4.7 in 2019 / -6.8 in 2020

Calhoun -2 in 2020

=-17.5 in 2019 / -21.6 in 2020 / -7.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

 +14.5 Players Benefits in 2019 / +15 Players Benefits in 2020

+2.25 in non active roster in 2019 / 2.25 in non-active roster in 2020

=$163,053,000 in 2019 AAV Payroll / $151,428,000 in 2020 AAV Payroll.

 

Also, Pujols will not leave any money on the table. The Angels will pay it. He won't officially retire until the end of his contract unless they work out a deferment. Otherwise, he pulls a Prince Fielder and just stays on the roster, and the 60-Day DL during the season. Would you leave $60M on the table no matter what you've made?

Ward can stick at 3rd. Fletcher didn't prove anything to me, except he deserves a chance to play in 2019. Ward did that was well. Fletcher is the better defender, but he's never had a minor league season with the bat the way Ward did in 2019.

 

 

[angelsnationtalk]

23 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Except you are not looking at the correct numbers.

I'll post the link to the correct numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml

25-Man Payroll is the only number you should look at, the 40-Man is calculated at the end of the year, and is basically useless info in the beginning.

Here's a quick summary -- CASH PAYROLL - 25-Man Roster

2019 / 2020

Trout $34.083 / 34.083

Pujols $28 / 29

Upton $18 / 21

Simmons $13 / 15

Cozart $12.67 /12.67

Harvey $11 /0

Calhoun $10.5 / 1

Cahill $9 / 0

Lucroy $3.35 / 0

Bour $2.5 / Arb Eligibles

=$142,103,000 in 10 guaranteed contracts for 2019 / $112,753,000 for 6 in 2020.

Arbitration Eligible Players = $17,000,000-$18,000,000 for 8 players in 2019 /  $38-39,000,000 for 12 guys in 2020 (not all will be kept)

7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000 / 7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000

=$164,128,000 in 2019 Cash Payroll / $155,778,000 in 2020 Cash Payroll

 

AAV Payroll (40-Man) reduces / increases the following numbers

Trout -10 in 2019 / -10 in 2020

Pujols -4 in 2019 / -5 in 2020 / - 6 in 2021

Upton +3.2 in 2019 / + 0.2 in 2020 / -1.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

Simmons -4.7 in 2019 / -6.8 in 2020

Calhoun -2 in 2020

=-17.5 in 2019 / -21.6 in 2020 / -7.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

 +14.5 Players Benefits in 2019 / +15 Players Benefits in 2020

+2.25 in non active roster in 2019 / 2.25 in non-active roster in 2020

=$163,053,000 in 2019 AAV Payroll / $151,428,000 in 2020 AAV Payroll.

 

Also, Pujols will not leave any money on the table. The Angels will pay it. He won't officially retire until the end of his contract unless they work out a deferment. Otherwise, he pulls a Prince Fielder and just stays on the roster, and the 60-Day DL during the season. Would you leave $60M on the table no matter what you've made?

Ward can stick at 3rd. Fletcher didn't prove anything to me, except he deserves a chance to play in 2019. Ward did that was well. Fletcher is the better defender, but he's never had a minor league season with the bat the way Ward did in 2019.

 

 

And here's the one I'm looking at which comes from @Jeff Fletcher

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg/edit#gid=0

[arch stanton]

15 hours ago, True Grich said:

Bill Stoneman and Mike Scioscia return.

AW explodes and Chuck moves to Canada.

I'm pretty sure Chuck already lives in Canada

[WeatherWonk]

16 hours ago, Hubs said:

Except you are not looking at the correct numbers.

I'll post the link to the correct numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml

25-Man Payroll is the only number you should look at, the 40-Man is calculated at the end of the year, and is basically useless info in the beginning.

Here's a quick summary -- CASH PAYROLL - 25-Man Roster

2019 / 2020

Trout $34.083 / 34.083

Pujols $28 / 29

Upton $18 / 21

Simmons $13 / 15

Cozart $12.67 /12.67

Harvey $11 /0

Calhoun $10.5 / 1

Cahill $9 / 0

Lucroy $3.35 / 0

Bour $2.5 / Arb Eligibles

=$142,103,000 in 10 guaranteed contracts for 2019 / $112,753,000 for 6 in 2020.

Arbitration Eligible Players = $17,000,000-$18,000,000 for 8 players in 2019 /  $38-39,000,000 for 12 guys in 2020 (not all will be kept)

7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000 / 7 0-3 Players in 2019 = $4,025,000

=$164,128,000 in 2019 Cash Payroll / $155,778,000 in 2020 Cash Payroll

 

AAV Payroll (40-Man) reduces / increases the following numbers

Trout -10 in 2019 / -10 in 2020

Pujols -4 in 2019 / -5 in 2020 / - 6 in 2021

Upton +3.2 in 2019 / + 0.2 in 2020 / -1.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

Simmons -4.7 in 2019 / -6.8 in 2020

Calhoun -2 in 2020

=-17.5 in 2019 / -21.6 in 2020 / -7.8 in 2021 / -6.8 in 2022

 +14.5 Players Benefits in 2019 / +15 Players Benefits in 2020

+2.25 in non active roster in 2019 / 2.25 in non-active roster in 2020

=$163,053,000 in 2019 AAV Payroll / $151,428,000 in 2020 AAV Payroll.

 

Also, Pujols will not leave any money on the table. The Angels will pay it. He won't officially retire until the end of his contract unless they work out a deferment. Otherwise, he pulls a Prince Fielder and just stays on the roster, and the 60-Day DL during the season. Would you leave $60M on the table no matter what you've made?

Ward can stick at 3rd. Fletcher didn't prove anything to me, except he deserves a chance to play in 2019. Ward did that was well. Fletcher is the better defender, but he's never had a minor league season with the bat the way Ward did in 2019.

 

 

And Ward's never had a major league season with the bat, the way Fletcher has.

Fletch will never have the power of Ward, but Fletch will never have so many unproductive outs (over 30% Ks) as Ward. Ward's numbers were great at SLC last year, but only 8 HRs in all those hits in that environment is somewhat disappointing, if one is enamored with his slugging.

There's still a lot to tell about these two. But one thing is sure. Fletch can hit at the MLB level, while Ward still has much to prove. AAA is where he should start. I expect some regression from a .350+ average at SLC from Ward. Heck, even Fletch hit .350 at SLC and got on base at nearly a .400 clip. Just not the power. 

These two could easily co-exist in the same lineup, after Cozart leaves. 

[Lou]

Ward only had 227 AB in AAA last year and not all of those games were played in SLC 

[totdprods]

35 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

And Ward's never had a major league season with the bat, the way Fletcher has.

Fletch will never have the power of Ward, but Fletch will never have so many unproductive outs (over 30% Ks) as Ward. Ward's numbers were great at SLC last year, but only 8 HRs in all those hits in that environment is somewhat disappointing, if one is enamored with his slugging.

There's still a lot to tell about these two. But one thing is sure. Fletch can hit at the MLB level, while Ward still has much to prove. AAA is where he should start. I expect some regression from a .350+ average at SLC from Ward. Heck, even Fletch hit .350 at SLC and got on base at nearly a .400 clip. Just not the power. 

These two could easily co-exist in the same lineup, after Cozart leaves. 

I don't have all the data in front of me, but I dug into Ward's MLB numbers a bit last year....there was some encouraging signs. If I recall, he was striking out quite a bit, but a good bit of it was looking - not swinging, and that he did a good job avoiding swings out of the zone. His minor league track record indicates a player with strong plate discipline and his BA shifted way up in '18. 

If I were to guess, I think Ward made it to the bigs still bringing him with an approach of working the count, drawing walks, trying to make contact...and found MLB pitchers had no problem going right after him. He'd take a few pitches, quickly find himself down, and then struck out trying to work back up or keep the at-bat alive. 

This is a little encouraging - he wasn't just swinging through everything overmatched - popping 5 HR in limited time is a good sign too, and he did show a bit of an all-fields/contact approach. He could probably afford to be a little more aggressive next time up - he has the eye, discipline, and contact tools to abate any negative results that come with it - and he might shift into a decent hitter quicker than most here might expect.

[ksangel]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

And Ward's never had a major league season with the bat, the way Fletcher has.

Fletch will never have the power of Ward, but Fletch will never have so many unproductive outs (over 30% Ks) as Ward. Ward's numbers were great at SLC last year, but only 8 HRs in all those hits in that environment is somewhat disappointing, if one is enamored with his slugging.

There's still a lot to tell about these two. But one thing is sure. Fletch can hit at the MLB level, while Ward still has much to prove. AAA is where he should start. I expect some regression from a .350+ average at SLC from Ward. Heck, even Fletch hit .350 at SLC and got on base at nearly a .400 clip. Just not the power. 

These two could easily co-exist in the same lineup, after Cozart leaves. 

Ward hit 20 HR' s last yr in 500 AB's.

His OBP was at or over .400 in college, .457 1st yr of pro ball, .323 in his 2nd yr @ A+, .348 at A+ and .400 at AA the next yr and .446 at Salt Lake last year.

His average has also been over .300 in college and pro ball except for the two years behind the plate in pro ball. 

Don't see his bat, average, obp or power, as the question but watching him at 3B in the majors last year seems he needs more time at Salt Lake honing his defensive skills.

[Hubs]

17 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

And here's the one I'm looking at which comes from @Jeff Fletcher

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg/edit#gid=0

Fletcher's is the "real" payroll, which includes the benefits on the 25-man payroll..but that's a 14.5M added to the 164 number, which gives us 179-180, not 195. He's adding the 20M to take care of all of that, and the numbers that include 0-3 guys, etc. There are 7 or 8 on the roster, but that's a max of like 4.5M...which I and Cots' have taken into account.

 

 

 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

And Ward's never had a major league season with the bat, the way Fletcher has.

Fletch will never have the power of Ward, but Fletch will never have so many unproductive outs (over 30% Ks) as Ward. Ward's numbers were great at SLC last year, but only 8 HRs in all those hits in that environment is somewhat disappointing, if one is enamored with his slugging.

There's still a lot to tell about these two. But one thing is sure. Fletch can hit at the MLB level, while Ward still has much to prove. AAA is where he should start. I expect some regression from a .350+ average at SLC from Ward. Heck, even Fletch hit .350 at SLC and got on base at nearly a .400 clip. Just not the power. 

These two could easily co-exist in the same lineup, after Cozart leaves. 

Ward's 2018 offensive numbers in Anaheim weren't great, but then neither were Mike Trout's in his first stint, or more applicably, Troy Glaus'. I'm not saying Ward will have Glaus's power, but they both play 3rd..

And I'm confused on what Fletcher you're talking about. This is why I brought this up in the first place, what has Fletcher done to prove it all to you and others who love him that he's a legit player at this level? He hit .275 / .316 / .363 with a .678 OPS and an 89 OPS+. He had 18 2B, which is nice. And a nice average at .275, but his power is not there. His OBP is also bad for a singles and doubles guy.

His minor league average season is also right in line with his showing in the majors in 2018. He has one great half a season at SLC, in a hitting rich environment.

I think it's an open competition for the major league spots, with LaStella also in a competition, who also has an option.