Ohtani pitching on Sundays

[Hubs]

DAY	DATE	Opponent	Starter	Days OFF
TUE	7/3/18	SEA	Skaggs	6
WED	7/4/18	SEA	Heaney	6
THURS	7/5/18	SEA	Shoemaker	6
FRI	7/6/18	LAD	Ramirez	6
SAT	7/7/18	LAD	Richards	6
SUN	7/8/18	LAD	Ohtani	6
MON	7/9/18	OFF	OFF
TUE	7/10/18	SEA	Skaggs	6
WED	7/11/18	SEA	Heaney	6
THURS	7/12/18	SEA	Shoemaker	6
FRI	7/13/18	LAD	Ramirez	6
SAT	7/14/18	LAD	Richards	6
SUN	7/15/18	LAD	Ohtani	6
MON	7/16/18	OFF	OFF
TUE	7/17/18	OFF	OFF
WED	7/18/18	OFF	OFF
THURS	7/19/18	OFF	OFF

[Hubs]

There's my thoughts on how to keep Ohtani on Sundays through the All-Star Break.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

I wonder how it effects attendence? I'd imagine Sunday is probably the second biggest average draw to start with. They could probably make more money starting him on Tuesdays, but it's great that more fans get to see him this way. 

I would always miss Sundays games as a rule because I just don't like sitting in the sun on a hot day game. I'm guessing if Ohtani is pitching on Sundays every week attendance on those days will increase from previous seasons.

[krAbs]

8 minutes ago, Gil said:

It'll be interesting to see if Ohtani is able to take advantage of the rock pile during day games like Weaver did throughout his career. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/do-pitchers-get-a-boost-from-angel-stadiums-rockpile/

Both are tall lanky right handers but I'm not sure about their comparative release points (since Weaver was known for throwing across his body). Anybody know where to find the pitch f/x  or stat cast data on release points?

Weaver:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P&season=2017&date=0&dh=0&data=pi

Ohtani:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=19755&position=P&season=2018&date=0&dh=0&data=pi

Its not clear to me weather or not they share the same datum, though. If (0,0) is the top center of the rubber, then it looks like they are close to the same height (with weaver about 3"-6" higher), but Weaver centers around 3.5 feet off the rubber, while Ohtani has averaged closer to 2.25 feet off. Given how angles work, I would guess that's too much of a difference for a similar deception.

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I would always miss Sundays games as a rule because I just don't like sitting in the sun on a hot day game. I'm guessing if Ohtani is pitching on Sundays every week attendance on those days will increase from previous seasons.

I don't like day games either for that reason. I actually think they probably are only 3rd in attendance after Friday and Saturday. I just wonder if pitching him on a Tuesday or Thursday would increase attendance by more than on Sunday. But as a long term plan, I think getting him more exposure on Sundays is better. East coast fans and children can more easily watch him on Sunday than a late game on a week night.

[OCAngelsNotLAA]

3 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Weaver:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P&season=2017&date=0&dh=0&data=pi

Ohtani:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=19755&position=P&season=2018&date=0&dh=0&data=pi

Its not clear to me weather or not they share the same datum, though. If (0,0) is the top center of the rubber, then it looks like they are close to the same height (with weaver about 3"-6" higher), but Weaver centers around 3.5 feet off the rubber, while Ohtani has averaged closer to 2.25 feet off. Given how angles work, I would guess that's too much of a difference for a similar deception.

NERD!

[eaterfan]

27 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The flipside -- shadows may help hide the split a bit better.

Plus the glare off the ball... If only Josh Hamilton were still playing against us.

[ettin]

22 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Should we be fortunate enough to reach the postseason, then that’s when we ask players to do a bit more than we did during the regular season.

If he continues to hit like he has, then I absolutely think we would see Ohtani DH the day before or after a game he starts in the postseason.

If we are playing in the ALDS, then we just need Ohtani to start once.  We can have Richards pitch game 1 and 5 (if necessary), with Ohtani pitching game 2.  Alternatively, if we used Richards in the wild card game, we could have Ohtani pitch games 1 and 5.  There are usually 5 days off in between those games, so he would pitch on 5 days rest instead of 6.  I could see us going for that, if the situation presented itself.

You are completely disregarding innings pitched for the entire season. Most of our injured starters probably won't get past 150 IP this season. Anything beyond that is pushing a renewed injury risk. We WILL need a good quality starter who can take us into the postseason at the trade deadline this year in my opinion.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

You are completely disregarding innings pitched for the entire season. Most of our injured starters probably won't get past 150 IP this season. Anything beyond that is pushing a renewed injury risk. We WILL need a good quality starter who can take us into the postseason at the trade deadline this year in my opinion.

Well, I am assuming that is part of the overall plan.  I am guessing we will monitor Ohtani closely so that he doesn’t go beyond 150 the whole year.  I did not expressly state it, but I am sure that is part of the overall big picture.  Same for all of our pitchers.  We do have a lot of depth for this reason.

This most likely means we have our pitchers skip a few starts per year, which I figure will happen.

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

You are completely disregarding innings pitched for the entire season. Most of our injured starters probably won't get past 150 IP this season. Anything beyond that is pushing a renewed injury risk. We WILL need a good quality starter who can take us into the postseason at the trade deadline this year in my opinion.

I ran through the entire schedule, and only three starters get 27 starts or more, with Richards getting 28.

Now, I think Ohtani may skip the game at the Dodgers the Sunday before the All-Star Break, if he is indeed selected to the All-Star Game. I forget if the fans vote for the DH.  If they do, and Ohtani is on the ballot there, he most certainly will be selected, due to the influx of Japanese votes. Since it is the only game in an NL park on a Sunday, it would be the only time he would need to pitch and hit in the same game.

So that puts him at 26.

26 starts, at 6.1 innings a start is only 158 innings.

 

 

[laagamer]

I say we pitch him until his arm falls off and bat him every day. Who's with me?

[Ohtaniland]

Pencil in that April 29th Sunday Night Baseball Angels vs Yankees on ESPN. That’s going to be a huge ratings boost. 

[ScottT]

Anyone using terms like worried or concerned regarding Ohtani right now should shake themselves.

Enjoy it. 

[Taylor]

3 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

Pencil in that April 29th Sunday Night Baseball Angels vs Yankees on ESPN. That’s going to be a huge ratings boost. 

It will be fun to watch him strike out Judge and Stanton.

[Rico]

I think post All-Star game we might consider just going with the 5 man.  Would be good to push Ohtani more to get him ready for post-season play.

[DCAngelsFan]

21 hours ago, Hubs said:

There's my thoughts on how to keep Ohtani on Sundays through the All-Star Break.

I like it - but only for the reason that I've already got nice seats for the 7/1 game in Ballmer, and watching him pitch would be frosting on that cake.  

Not into team jerseys, but may be worth it to get an Ohtani jersey just to irritate the Orioles fans (of course, those sections are usually full of Millville Trout fans, anyway.)

 

[ettin]

22 hours ago, Hubs said:

I ran through the entire schedule, and only three starters get 27 starts or more, with Richards getting 28.

Now, I think Ohtani may skip the game at the Dodgers the Sunday before the All-Star Break, if he is indeed selected to the All-Star Game. I forget if the fans vote for the DH.  If they do, and Ohtani is on the ballot there, he most certainly will be selected, due to the influx of Japanese votes. Since it is the only game in an NL park on a Sunday, it would be the only time he would need to pitch and hit in the same game.

So that puts him at 26.

26 starts, at 6.1 innings a start is only 158 innings.

 

 

And then the playoffs if we get there?

My point is that there is an upper limit that, if broken, puts us in a precarious position of placing our starters at a heightened risk of re-injury. It may or may not be an issue but I think if we get to the trade deadline and we are in the fight, Eppler will consider grabbing a starter off of the trade market that could pitch in the post-season.

[Warfarin]

9 minutes ago, ettin said:

And then the playoffs if we get there?

My point is that there is an upper limit that, if broken, puts us in a precarious position of placing our starters at a heightened risk of re-injury. It may or may not be an issue but I think if we get to the trade deadline and we are in the fight, Eppler will consider grabbing a starter off of the trade market that could pitch in the post-season.

It's possible, but I do think we have enough depth in starting pitching to get through the season.  

Assuming our SP average somewhere between 5-6 IP per game, which IMO is a realistic target, we need our SP to cover roughly 900 IP over a 162 game season.

Richards - 150

Skaggs - 150

Ohtani - 130

Heaney - 130

Ramirez - 130

Shoemaker - 90 (downward revised based on current injury)

Tropeano - 90

Bridwell - 60

That's 930 IP without asking anyone to remotely approach 200 IP.  I think that's a reasonable way to divvy up starts.  Maybe Shoemaker is out for the rest of the year, so we see some more IP from Tropeano, Bridwell, and some from Barria, etc.

We have a lot of depth, and I am not concerned about us having enough IP to cover the year.

If we truly want a SP at the deadline, then the one to go after is a frontline ace, but how many of those will even be available come the trading deadline, and if so, are we willing to deal from our prospect currency (which is getting better, but still needs to get stronger) to do it?

 

[Hubs]

50 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

It's possible, but I do think we have enough depth in starting pitching to get through the season.  

Assuming our SP average somewhere between 5-6 IP per game, which IMO is a realistic target, we need our SP to cover roughly 900 IP over a 162 game season.

Richards - 150

Skaggs - 150

Ohtani - 130

Heaney - 130

Ramirez - 130

Shoemaker - 90 (downward revised based on current injury)

Tropeano - 90

Bridwell - 60

That's 930 IP without asking anyone to remotely approach 200 IP.  I think that's a reasonable way to divvy up starts.  Maybe Shoemaker is out for the rest of the year, so we see some more IP from Tropeano, Bridwell, and some from Barria, etc.

We have a lot of depth, and I am not concerned about us having enough IP to cover the year.

If we truly want a SP at the deadline, then the one to go after is a frontline ace, but how many of those will even be available come the trading deadline, and if so, are we willing to deal from our prospect currency (which is getting better, but still needs to get stronger) to do it?

 

We're not talking 250 innings and other than Ohtani everyone else can handle 180-200 innings. If healthy. If we go the distance then you have a max of 22 games divided over four starters that's fiveish additional starts, or 30 extra innings but that is what it will

take. None will go over 200 innings. 

[Warfarin]

21 minutes ago, Hubs said:

We're not talking 250 innings and other than Ohtani everyone else can handle 180-200 innings. If healthy. If we go the distance then you have a max of 22 games divided over four starters that's fiveish additional starts, or 30 extra innings but that is what it will

take. None will go over 200 innings. 

I think the key thing though is to ensure that none go over 200 innings including possible post-season starts.

I think 150 IP will be the "new" 200 IP moving forward.  As pitchers throw harder and suffer more elbow injuries, you'll see teams try to conserve them more and put less strain on their arms.  I think we will see fewer and fewer pitchers get near the 200 IP mark as seasons progress.

Given that most of our starters are coming off of injuries, I think 150 IP is a very reasonable benchmark.  I am sure they are capable of tossing 180-200 IP,  but I don't want to see any of them get to that mark during the season.