BP isnt buying into us AT ALL

[totdprods]

48 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Make it a 27 man roster, but only a 24 man active roster, so the last three starters aren’t active that game.  So each game the manager sets an active roster.  Make three of those spots major league veteran exception spots paying them $4 million (something along those lines) they are mandatory to have on the roster but only count against the tax if you are a team that receives money from the competitive balance tax.  So if you are paying into that tax to help the small revenue tax they are free of the tax if you go over the threshold. 

That's sort of an interesting way at making 'player-coach' an actual position on a roster. Team doesn't lose a roster spot, makes it easier for teams to bite the bullet on long-term deals for vets.

[floplag]

56 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Make it a 27 man roster, but only a 24 man active roster, so the last three starters aren’t active that game.  So each game the manager sets an active roster.  Make three of those spots major league veteran exception spots paying them $4 million (something along those lines) they are mandatory to have on the roster but only count against the tax if you are a team that receives money from the competitive balance tax.  So if you are paying into that tax to help the small revenue tax they are free of the tax if you go over the threshold. 

I actually like this idea if you take out the money part.  
Its an obvious thing that at least 3-4 pitchers wont play in any given game barring some extreme emergency. why not take them out of the equation. 
Simply make it a 28 man total ML roster with 3 spots on a daily basis that are inactive for that game leaving 25 per game.  Each day those 3 starters that you know arent going to see the field but will work the clipboard or whatever side work etc... but they are simply not eligible to enter the game that day.   
Other sports do it and yet baseball where it makes perhaps the most sense doesn't. 

[Blarg]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea, I liked it too, then some teams needed help from other teams.  Then when those teams, while still getting financial help, stopped trying to win and weren't adding payroll, yea, that is a problem.  MLB is the only league that has a pretty strict 25 man roster.  The NBA, NHL and NFL all have active rosters, why not MLB?

Baseball has the 40 man roster. They don't sit on the bench waiting, they play every day in another league. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Baseball has the 40 man roster. They don't sit on the bench waiting, they play every day in another league. 

Yes.  I know.  

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Make it a 27 man roster, but only a 24 man active roster, so the last three starters aren’t active that game.  So each game the manager sets an active roster.  Make three of those spots major league veteran exception spots paying them $4 million (something along those lines) they are mandatory to have on the roster but only count against the tax if you are a team that receives money from the competitive balance tax.  So if you are paying into that tax to help the small revenue tax they are free of the tax if you go over the threshold. 

In hockey they call it a healthy scratch. They should actually allow a daily 25 man roster with two ready to come in alternates 1 pitcher, 1 utility that can be immediately activated during a game when something crazy happens like 12 - 18+ extra inning games. 

[Mark68]

Meh.

PECOTA projections are generally conservative.

I've read their projections before, and they've stated, specifically for Trout, that a player of his caliber is off the charts and PECOTA doesn't have an algorithm for someone like him, so his projections are going to naturally be low.

As for the rest, there are just so many unknown factors. Kinsler is another year older, and is leaving Detroit, which (surprise!) played as a hitters' park in 2017. Cosart is leaving an actual hitters' park and will playing a position he has not played. Even though that position is down the defensive spectrum (3B vs SS), his defense will be an unknown factor. Upton has been trending up and down in alternating years. Simmons is coming off what may have been a career year. Which Calhoun shows up is anybody's guess. Pujols is clearly in a steep decline, and we don't know if he is capable of a dead cat bounce (especially if he spends more time on the field). Maldonaldo is what he is--a glove-first catcher.

Given all that, this team will go as far as the pitching takes it--and the pitching could be all over the place. The six-man rotation is an unknown factor. The recovery from injuries for most of the starting rotation adds yet another unknown factor. Bullpen arms, with few exceptions (even Kimbrel had a mid-3s ERA in 2016), tend to be highly volatile.

But the biggest unknown factor is Shohei Ohtani. Nobody knows what he will actually bring to the table.

So, I'd say that given the unknowns, this could be an 80-win team. Could it be a 90-win team? Sure, absolutely. But it is those unknown quantities that make this particular iteration of the
Angels so hard to project...and will make it interesting and fun to watch this year.

Bring on the pitchers and catchers!

[WeatherWonk]

On 2/7/2018 at 11:17 AM, mtangelsfan said:

I question our starting pitching as well.  There is a whole hell of a lot of starters in the well but most of those same starters come with rather large question marks.  There aren't too many locks in that list.

I agree. Seems like we have been saying this for the last three years, including 2018.

Now comes the biggest question mark; Ohtani. Based on how almost every Japanese pitcher has done when they move over here, I think he's going to be good. But who knows?

And as Stradling mentioned, we dont have Petit, "good" Norris and Parker had his first good season. Can he repeat? It was, BY FAR, the most innings he has pitched in five years.

It's not a stretch to predict that we will give up more runs than last year.

[Troll Daddy]

If there a pitcher coming into camp injured? I haven’t heard of any yet. 

[WeatherWonk]

On 2/7/2018 at 2:36 PM, OHTANILAND said:

It’s easy to predict right now that we will be battling for a wild card spot. No analytics necessary. 

Generally, there are only a handful of teams in each league that can't say that. Probably well over 50% of each league is within 5-7 games of a wild card slot in early September. 

In the AL, probably only CHI, OAK, DET, have no chance. Maybe BAL and TOR, too.  In the NL, PHI, NYM, MIA, SDP, CIN probably have no chance. Maybe ATL, too.

It's not a very high bar anymore, with two WC teams. But it is probably the best we can hope for. Houston is so good.

[Mark68]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

Generally, there are only a handful of teams in each league that can't say that. Probably well over 50% of each league is within 5-7 games of a wild card slot in early September. 

In the AL, probably only CHI, OAK, DET, have no chance. Maybe BAL and TOR, too.  In the NL, PHI, NYM, MIA, SDP, CIN probably have no chance. Maybe ATL, too.

It's not a very high bar anymore, with two WC teams. But it is probably the best we can hope for. Houston is so good.

OAK has an outside shot. PHI might have more of a shot, as do the Mets (assuming health). Just because a team did poorly last year doesn't necessarily mean they will again. 

I actually like the Phillies to compete for a wild card. They've got a good young nucleus.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

14 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Let’s not forget matchups ... ideally you want your best pitchers to face the opposing teams best pitchers if possible. 

If your best pitcher will likely lose against their best pitcher why not replace him with a lesser pitcher and use your best pitcher against their lesser pitcher. That way you at least may get a split.

[ten ocho recon scout]

38 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

If your best pitcher will likely lose against their best pitcher why not replace him with a lesser pitcher and use your best pitcher against their lesser pitcher. That way you at least may get a split.

Ive always wondered the same. Not for the run of the mill beat starter so much. But if youre facing a kershaw type, id almost prefer to throw the richards level guy at their number 2, then our 2 against their 3 etc.

[WeatherWonk]

6 hours ago, Mark68 said:

OAK has an outside shot. PHI might have more of a shot, as do the Mets (assuming health). Just because a team did poorly last year doesn't necessarily mean they will again. 

I actually like the Phillies to compete for a wild card. They've got a good young nucleus.

I disagree, especially with respect to the NL. But you are, in a sense, reinforcing my point. So many teams can feel they are "in it" with the new WC set up.

I cant see PHI or NYM being close to ARI, COL, STL, MIL or the division favorites, should one of them faulter. They have improved, but not by enough. Of course, injuries can change everything.

The NL team on the rebound I am the most curious about is ATL. They were actually (unexpectedly) at .500 in mid July. 45-45. Seemed like the rebuild was way ahead of schedule. Then, they tanked. It's not easy to tank, playing a lot of teams from the NL East.

[Make Angels Great Again]

I'm gonna go on record and say this is the best roster we've ever had going into the season.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

I'm gonna go on record and say this is the best roster we've ever had going into the season.

1982 Angels 

Reggie

Carew

Grich

Baylor

DeCinces

Lynn

Boone

Downing

Foli

[Make Angels Great Again]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

1982 Angels 

Reggie

Carew

Grich

Baylor

DeCinces

Lynn

Boone

Downing

Foli

 

Granted, that team was a beast that scored 814 runs.

I think the 2018 Angels can do even better if everyone hits how we know they can.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Granted, that team was a beast that scored 814 runs.

I think the 2018 Angels can do even better if everyone hits how we know they can.

Just a hunch that those 814 runs was during a time when that was a ton of runs.  

[moccasin]

What I don't understand is how they are saying the defense has improved (especially infield), but at the same time thy have the same pitchers from last year giving up more runs.

A lot of baseball games will be blowouts and those can be pretty much predicted. A group of talented players will blow other teams away. But many of the close ones are decided by the bullpen, and that's the hardest thing to predict in baseball. You never know who will break out season in middle relief. I remember PECOTA constantly undervaluing the Angels, because we had a consistent bullpen for a long time.

[JarsOfClay]

On 2/8/2018 at 10:38 AM, Mark68 said:

Meh.

PECOTA projections are generally conservative.

I've read their projections before, and they've stated, specifically for Trout, that a player of his caliber is off the charts and PECOTA doesn't have an algorithm for someone like him, so his projections are going to naturally be low.

As for the rest, there are just so many unknown factors. Kinsler is another year older, and is leaving Detroit, which (surprise!) played as a hitters' park in 2017. Cosart is leaving an actual hitters' park and will playing a position he has not played. Even though that position is down the defensive spectrum (3B vs SS), his defense will be an unknown factor. Upton has been trending up and down in alternating years. Simmons is coming off what may have been a career year. Which Calhoun shows up is anybody's guess. Pujols is clearly in a steep decline, and we don't know if he is capable of a dead cat bounce (especially if he spends more time on the field). Maldonaldo is what he is--a glove-first catcher.

Given all that, this team will go as far as the pitching takes it--and the pitching could be all over the place. The six-man rotation is an unknown factor. The recovery from injuries for most of the starting rotation adds yet another unknown factor. Bullpen arms, with few exceptions (even Kimbrel had a mid-3s ERA in 2016), tend to be highly volatile.

But the biggest unknown factor is Shohei Ohtani. Nobody knows what he will actually bring to the table.

So, I'd say that given the unknowns, this could be an 80-win team. Could it be a 90-win team? Sure, absolutely. But it is those unknown quantities that make this particular iteration of the
Angels so hard to project...and will make it interesting and fun to watch this year.

Bring on the pitchers and catchers!

I agree this team is a bit of an enigma.  They have potential to win 95 games or 75 games, theres just so many variables with this team right now.  It's impossible to predict whats going to happen.  At least Eppler has given us potential to be a very good team and with all the adversity this team has gone through from the Dipoto years, that's a great thing to have.

Win or lose it will be a fun team to watch for sure.  

[Troll Daddy]

On 2/9/2018 at 8:04 AM, Make Angels Great Again said:

I'm gonna go on record and say this is the best roster we've ever had going into the season.

The 2014 team had the best record in baseball. 

[JustATroutFan]

36 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

The 2014 team had the best record in baseball. 

That team overachieved, in my opinion. Didn't think they would win anywhere close to 98 games. Thought they would struggle to win 85 games. 

[JarsOfClay]

1 hour ago, ThomasSutpen said:

I would argue that with the Ohtani signing and the other international FAs (Maitan, Soto), the Angels are going through more diversity now than any time during Dipoto's tenure.

lol oops meant adversity.