One concern I have heading into the offseason

[SigBaby]

I think anyone who followed this team last year knows that it was able to stay afloat for 3 main reasons. 1) Mike Trout 2) the defense 3) the bullpen. Trout will continue to be amazing and the defense should be solid again anchored by Maldonado and Simmons. However, I am nervous that the bullpen as a whole over performed last year and if we fail to continue to improve it, this team will regress even if improvements are made in other areas. Luckily Eppler has shown a tremendous ability when it comes to finding clean peanuts for the pen, but I wonder how much of that has been luck and how much is actually attributed to the FO seeing something other teams aren't seeing. 

As it stands now, the only reliable pitcher we have down there is Parker and somewhat reliable Bedrosian and Middleton. I hope we never have to see Alvarez pitch for us again and this team can find an actual solid lefty to come out of the pen. Assuming all starters are healthy by the start of next season (I know, asking a lot) and I still anticipate us adding a starter (I'm hoping for Alex Cobb or maybe a trade for Joe Kelly who seems to be perennially an adjustment away from becoming an ace and at worst a solid reliever) we will have at least 2 of Skaggs, Tropeano, Bridwell, JC Ramirez in the pen. That leaves 1 reliable guy 2 somewhat reliable guys and 2 question marks. Hopefully we can land someone solid ala Hernandez and Petit to fill at least one of the remaining 2 spots because there's going to be a lot of innings to replace. 

[JustATroutFan]

I forgot that Cobb was a free agent. I wouldn't mind Cobb coming to the Angels. He can pitch and has very good career numbers in his career, and that is despite pitching in the hardest division to pitch that is the AL East. I think Cobb would fit in well with the Angels and would not surprise me to see if his ERA is close to 3 with the help of pitching in the pitcher haven AL West.

[tdawg87]

Jose Alvarez has to be the most underrated player on the team. He posted a 109 ERA+ this past year and has a very respectable 112 ERA+ as an Angel. He pitches decent enough against LHH, holding them to a .245 AVG this season. He also has good all-around peripherals. In 2017 he posted a: 2.2 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, and 3.75 K/BB ratio. Not to mention a 3.92 FIP (3.51 career as an Angel).

The only thing keeping him from possibly being retained is a projected arbitration raise that sees him getting 1.1 million. Other than that he's a valuable pitcher. Not to mention he can go multiple innings and even start in an emergency.

Wouldn't surprise me if he gets kept around. Eppler should look to add another solid lefty, not replace the one they already have.

As for the other pieces, Petit absolutely needs to be re-signed. He was such a valuable part of the pen this year. I could also see Eppler bringing in another pitcher ala Bud Norris. Someone who can go 2-3 innings in relief but also spot start if absolutely necessary. I could see Scott Feldman filling this role but he probably still sees himself as a starter, and I'm sure some team will pay him as such.

[SigBaby]

Alvarez is what he is: extremely mediocre and a fine low leverage option. I know there's always talk about his spin rate and how his peripherals show he should be better, but the guy is just so underwhelming and can't be trusted in high leverage situations

[tdawg87]

37 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

Alvarez is what he is: extremely mediocre and a fine low leverage option. I know there's always talk about his spin rate and how his peripherals show he should be better, but the guy is just so underwhelming and can't be trusted in high leverage situations

I just showed that he is above average. Also:

High Leverage BAA: .180

Medium Leverage BAA: .275

Low Leverage BAA: .280

 

[wopphil]

There are a lot of good free agent pen arms this year. They should bring back Pettit and bring in a couple of the good mid tier arms, like Morrow or Minor.

[Bob Trop]

Resigning Petit seems like a no-brainer but we don’t know what Eppler has in mind. Right now there is Bedrosian, Middleton and Parker. If Ramirez is healthy he is a viable candidate for the pen or rotation. Skaggs, Richards, Heaney and Tropeano are question marks heading into the spring. Cobb will get a three or four year deal from someone, hopefully not the Angels. Tony Watson on a two year deal would be a quality addition to the pen with his versatility. I would stay away from the 4+ year contracts to the available starters, none are wprth the gamble.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

There are a lot of good free agent pen arms this year. They should bring back Pettit and bring in a couple of the good mid tier arms, like Morrow or Minor.

Morrow and Minor are probably shading into the upper-their of FA RPs, if not firmly in place there already.

[Dick B Back]

9 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

 has very good career numbers in his career, 

This is a great selling point.

[SigBaby]

7 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I just showed that he is above average. Also:

High Leverage BAA: .180

Medium Leverage BAA: .275

Low Leverage BAA: .280

 

3.90 FIP is not particularly good for a reliever and neither is .250 BAA for a lefty against lefties. Not bad but not good so mediocre

[totdprods]

For all the hullabaloo we've made about Moustakas being a near inevitability because he's a local boy, you might as well consider Addison Reed: 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26299992/

Growing up as an Angels fan, Reed looked at Troy Percival and Francisco Rodriguez as his favorite closers. He loved the electricity built up in the stadium whenever Percival ran through the bullpen gates into the game. Even at this inexperienced state of his career, Reed also understands the professionalism and accountability always on display from Percival, even when he blew an occasional save.

He's only entering his age 29 season, there's a clear opportunity for him to close here for his hometown team, and his last three years, he's averaging:
71 games, 70 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 156 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 7.9 H9, 0.9 HR9, 2.0 BB9, 94 K9

He's been my #1 FA target, at least for a pitcher, all year.
Give him the closer's job and a good contract, bring back at least one of Petit or Norris, and sign a lefty reliever from the McGee, Watson, Abad, Ross, Siegrist batch, and fill out the depth using more of the same formulas and scouts that rec'ed Petit, Norris, Yates, Parker, and Hernandez last offseason.

Reed, Parker, Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes, Norris/Petit, a LHRP mentioned above, and whomever else as depth looks alright. We'll likely have a SP or two we can slot into there as well as a long-reliever.

[nando714]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I just showed that he is above average. Also:

High Leverage BAA: .180

Medium Leverage BAA: .275

Low Leverage BAA: .280

 

Enough with the facts !!!

[ettin]

41 minutes ago, totdprods said:

For all the hullabaloo we've made about Moustakas being a near inevitability because he's a local boy, you might as well consider Addison Reed: 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26299992/

Growing up as an Angels fan, Reed looked at Troy Percival and Francisco Rodriguez as his favorite closers. He loved the electricity built up in the stadium whenever Percival ran through the bullpen gates into the game. Even at this inexperienced state of his career, Reed also understands the professionalism and accountability always on display from Percival, even when he blew an occasional save.

He's only entering his age 29 season, there's a clear opportunity for him to close here for his hometown team, and his last three years, he's averaging:
71 games, 70 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 156 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 7.9 H9, 0.9 HR9, 2.0 BB9, 94 K9

He's been my #1 FA target, at least for a pitcher, all year.
Give him the closer's job and a good contract, bring back at least one of Petit or Norris, and sign a lefty reliever from the McGee, Watson, Abad, Ross, Siegrist batch, and fill out the depth using more of the same formulas and scouts that rec'ed Petit, Norris, Yates, Parker, and Hernandez last offseason.

Reed, Parker, Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes, Norris/Petit, a LHRP mentioned above, and whomever else as depth looks alright. We'll likely have a SP or two we can slot into there as well as a long-reliever.

Agreed tots, if the Angels do go after a good reliever he strikes me as the primary choice. It would not be surprising to me to see the Angels use one of Bedrosian, Parker, or Middleton as trade bait and then sign Reed.

[SigBaby]

18 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Enough with the facts !!!

Not sure where those numbers are from 

Career:

High Leverage BAA: .346

Medium Leverage BAA: .214

Low Leverage BAA: .269

2017:

High Leverage: .294

Med Leverage: .208

Low Leverage: .278

Also only 3.2 innings pitched in 2017 in high leverage situations because he isn't trusted in them.

 

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

Not sure where those numbers are from 

Career:

High Leverage BAA: .346

Medium Leverage BAA: .214

Low Leverage BAA: .269

2017:

High Leverage: .294

Med Leverage: .208

Low Leverage: .278

Also only 3.2 innings pitched in 2017 in high leverage situations because he isn't trusted in them.

 

Well by using your stats he's not a "low leverage" pitcher.

[SigBaby]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Well by using your stats he's not a "low leverage" pitcher.

I guess he does just seem to be a medium leverage specialist

[tdawg87]

Which is fine by me! 

[SigBaby]

Which also implies he's mediocre. Not good enough for high leverage 

[Blarg]

This argument is mediocre.

[tdawg87]

11 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

Which also implies he's mediocre. Not good enough for high leverage 

A 109 ERA+ is above average. So was his WHIP and K rate.

He's by no means great, but he's a solid guy to have in the pen.

[totdprods]

I don't even know who they're talking about. Was it Watson?

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Alvarez is average/below average at best. Is he a quality situational reliever? If he is kept in a situational spot then he is fine! More than that is when he gets in trouble.

During the season the last two years SVEN has over worked the Bully to the point that he is the only rested arm out there! And in turn changing his role from a situational lefty reliever which he might have success at, changes to a Loogey.

His greatest Asset he brings to the team is he is a Inexpensive ($500,000.00 per year) Left-handed pitcher.

April - 10 innings 1.80ERA

May - 10.1 innings 6.97ERA

June - 9.2 innings 7.45ERA

June wasn't he demoted in July and again in August? 

July - 4.0 innings 0.00ERA

August - 7.2 innings 0.00ERA

September - 6.0 innings 3.00ERA

These are reliever stats I look at.

I look at hits per innings pitched. 50/48.2 = 1.03 per inning

I also look at runs allowed per innings pitched he's close to 50%.    23/48.2 

Home Runs allowed per innings pitched.... 7/48.2 = one every 7 innings. considering he doesn't pitch that much 6-10 innings per month that is pretty large.

He allows 11.5 base runners per 9 innings of work.

BABIP - .312

 

Overall, to me an opportunity for the Team to get better at this position in the Bully! Use him as a option guy if he still has some!

 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

These are reliever stats I look at.

I look at hits per innings pitched. 50/48.2 = 1.03 per inning

I also look at runs allowed per innings pitched he's close to 50%.    23/48.2 

Home Runs allowed per innings pitched.... 7/48.2 = one every 7 innings. considering he doesn't pitch that much 6-10 innings per month that is pretty large.

He allows 11.5 base runners per 9 innings of work

 

You know all of those are actual stats, right? You don't have to break them down.

Also runs allowed per innings pitched? Wtf?

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

12 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You know all of those are actual stats, right? You don't have to break them down.

Also runs allowed per innings pitched? Wtf?

If you've got a pitcher who gives up 100 runs in 100 innings HE'S NOT GOOD! Even 50% of the time isn't good. in a sample size of a situational pitcher!

 

Pick and Choose. whatever, you want, to prove your point! I will use the stats I was graded on when I pitched in the Minors!

[tdawg87]

Well obviously. But you know there's this little stat called ERA that will count that for you.