The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[totdprods]

Healy's cost was what, roughly Middleton and Rivas?

[Chuck]

Ryon Healey had a .302 OBP this past season. 

Dipoto sucks! 

[UndertheHalo]

I don’t know if it’s a bad deal.  Healey shown legit power and is only 25.  The on base skills could improve.  If they traded a guy whose a comp on Kenyon Middleton.  I’d say the jury is still out on that dude as well. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Ryon Healey had a .302 OBP this past season. 

Dipoto sucks! 

Not a bad trade - I'm guessing this means they see him as a LF or 1B though with Seager? If Healy goes to 1B, it takes Seattle out of the Santana/LoMo/Duda/Alonso crop, which would be good for the Halos.

Seager could probably also fetch a good pitcher in a one for one though. 

[ettin]

28 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Ryon Healey had a .302 OBP this past season. 

Dipoto sucks! 

He traded for Mark Trumbo lol.

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Not a bad trade - I'm guessing this means they see him as a LF or 1B though with Seager? If Healy goes to 1B, it takes Seattle out of the Santana/LoMo/Duda/Alonso crop, which would be good for the Halos.

Seager could probably also fetch a good pitcher in a one for one though. 

Answering my own question..

Ryan Divish

@RyanDivish

·

Dipoto confirms that they will play Healy at first base on a daily basis.

[CanadianHalo]

23 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Seager could probably also fetch a good pitcher in a one for one though. 

A good pitcher or Tyler Skaggs

 

edit: wow I never realized Seager was due so much money and was already 30

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

A good pitcher or Tyler Skaggs

 

edit: wow I never realized Seager was due so much money and was already 30

That's not a terrible hypothetical actually. M's would free up money for more pitching, which they'd still need.

[vladdy#27]

I’m going to start this post off by saying that in no way am I advocating signing Moustakas. But if he really wants to come here what is a price that would be somewhat fair, while insuring that we get back the value that we’re paying? So Moustakas will be 29 next season. He will likely get a 4-5 year contract. So his contract will run through his age 32 or 33 season.

Moustakas missed the majority of 2016 after colliding with Alex Gordon, other than that he has consistently played 140 games per season. So we will examine him using 2014, 2015, and 2017. 2014 was the worst year of his career offensively. He had a bWAR of 0.4 and an fWAR of 0.5, but he was just 25. 2015 was his most productive season offensively. He had a bWAR of 4.4 and an fWAR of 3.7. In 2017 he had a bWAR of 1.8 and an fWAR of 2.2. So let’s say 2018 will be an exact combination of those three seasons and he’ll produce a 2.2 WAR. We’ll assume that he declines at age 30 in his second season at 0.5 WAR per season every following season. The cost of WAR in 2017 was 10.5M per WAR. So

2018: 2.2 WAR (Age 29) ($23.1M)

2019: 1.7 WAR (Age 30) ($17.85M)

2020: 1.2 WAR (Age 31) ($12.6M)

2021: 0.7 WAR (Age 32) ($7.35M)

2022: 0.2 WAR (Age 33) ($2.1M)

Total: 6 WAR with a value of 63M

So a 5 year deal he would be worth 63M WAR and a 4 year deal he would be worth around 61M. He wouldn’t be my first choice but a 4 year 60M contract would not be the worst thing in the world. He would likely out perform the contract because he shouldn’t decline that rapidly during those years of his career. I could easily see him putting together a couple of 2.5-3 win seasons.

So structuring his contract: Lets say We give him a 4 year contract, with a team option 5th year (or vesting option) and give him the ability to opt out after the second year. So we give him 4 years 60M, with a 15M team option, 1M buyout

2018: 12M

2019: 14M

2020: 16M (Ability to opt out)

2021: 18M

2022: 18M (Club Option/600 PA in 21)

Positives of this contract for the Angels. They finally get a solution at 3B. The cost is rather fair and if he opts out they did not have to pay very much in the first two years of the deal. The opt out gives him incentive to perform well in hopes of better market.

Positives for Moustakas. He gets a big money contract and gets to play at home. He doesn’t have much of a market in 2018, but if he is able to string together a couple of good seasons he has the potential to test the market again, at a still relatively young age 31, where he could still get a 4-5 year deal in the 75M-90M range.

Part of the reason Moustakas doesn’t have much of a market, or at least it doesn’t seem that way, is that he is still relatively unproven. Players in their 3rd or 4th season typically have figured it out and turn into consistent players. Moustakas was not very good throughout his age 22-25 seasons offensively. He broke out offensively in his age 26 season. Was hurt in 2016. Then had another good season offensively in 2017. So basically in 6 full seasons he has been been good offensively in 2 of them, but missed 1 season. Missing that one season really hurts his stock. If he doesn’t miss 2016 and performs similar to 2015/2017 he establishes himself as a consistent player. With the injury it makes it a little cloudy.

[totdprods]

4/$60m-ish is max offer for Moose. I think that's plenty fair given his track record while still acknowledging his potential ceiling.

[Vlad27Trout27]

2018 - 12 mil

2019- 14 mil ( oppt out)

2020- 16 mil

2021-15 mil

Personally i don't seemuch of a market for him. 

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Answering my own question..

Ryan Divish

@RyanDivish

·

Dipoto confirms that they will play Healy at first base on a daily basis.

Healey is also poor defensively  

[Vlad27Trout27]

Looks like the braves may lose Maitain, If we can't get ohtani, Billy should go hard after this kids with Whatever is left with the Intl money. Kids already had 4.5 mil from the braves, shouldn't cost that much now.

[Docwaukee]

CJ Cron thinks Healy swings too much.  

[Brent Maguire]

Healy managed to slug 25 home runs yet finish with a league average batting line(.271/.302/.451, 100 wRC+). 

For comparison, C.J. Cron last year: 248/.305/.437, 99 wRC+

Given that Healey will play 1B full time in Seattle, the M's just essentially traded for C.J. Cron with a bit more club control. 

[vladdy#27]

6 minutes ago, Brent Maguire said:

Healy managed to slug 25 home runs yet finish with a league average batting line(.271/.302/.451, 100 wRC+). 

For comparison, C.J. Cron last year: 248/.305/.437, 99 wRC+

Given that Healey will play 1B full time in Seattle, the M's just essentially traded for C.J. Cron with a bit more club control. 

Well I guess that shows us Cron’s value then, should we trade him after acquiring a first basemen/third basemen. 

Cron would likely bring back less though because Healy is 2 years younger and has 2 more years of club control. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Healey is also poor defensively  

23 walks..   142 Ks....    Jerry Dipoto, entered Seattle talking about obtaining pitchers and hitters that "control the zone"....    Still saying one thing, doing another.   

Dude is such a fake.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Tank said:

listen, he's a professional athlete. there's no reason to pay him like he's a teacher.

Gold...  Pure Gold...  

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I want to go back to the Moustakas topic. Personally i think he doesn't have a market for him. Not many teams are looking for 3rd baseman this offseason. I think he'll resign a 1 year deal with  the royals or if he wants to come back hope, Billy could probably get him for 3 yrs 36-40 mil. 

If they could get him for 3 years 40 mil plus an option year to sweeten it for him -- that's not a bad deal.   And I've been banging the no Moustakas drum pretty much since day one.

[Turd Ferguson]

Crasnick tweeted last night that we are "#1" on Moustakas' wish list.
 

[Dtwncbad]

On 11/1/2017 at 8:52 AM, Stradling said:

I love hot stove talk. 

Is that stoves talking sexy to each other?

"Your burners are so round and huge. . ."

[Angel Oracle]

12 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

23 walks..   142 Ks....    Jerry Dipoto, entered Seattle talking about obtaining pitchers and hitters that "control the zone"....    Still saying one thing, doing another.   

Dude is such a fake.

He is the ultimate Harold T. Hill.   

[Vlad27Trout27]

I shall now present to you the 2018-2019 angels Lineup And the Stats. Avg/OBP/Slug/Ops- Hrs/Rbi/Sb

1. 2nd base Cesar Hernandez ( Traded for trop and Duensing) ( .292/351/.370/.750) - 8/42/25

2. SS Andrelton Simmons ( .285/.343/.415/.760)- 16/64/18

3. Cf- Mike Trout (.321/.450/.645/1.035)- 32/115/15

4. Lf Justin Upton ( .270/.362/.500/.902)- 30/121/10

5. Dh Albert Pujols (.268/.325/.454/ .464/.802)- 25/101/2

6. 3rd  Mike Moustakas ( 3yrs 44 mil; with a 4th opt year)- ( .275/ .323/.523/.817)-32/102/0

7. 1st Cj Cron- ( .278/.335/.464/.780)- 24/82/2

8. Rf  Kole Calhoun - ( .265/.340/.430/.735)- 16/75/7

9. Martin Maldonado - _.245/.311/.400/.709)- 10/44/0

The starting Roation

NAME- Innings- W-/L- Era 

1. Richards- 145- 13/6-3.16

2. SKaggs- 182-14/7- 3.51

3. Chatwood( 2yrs/ 15 mil) - 165- 11/8- 3.37

4. Shoemaker- 178-12/10-3.94

5. Heaney- 140/ 7/5-3.62

Bp- 

Closer- Bedrock

Setup 1- Parker

Setup 2- Minor (3yrs/ 24mil)

Middle Reliever- Middelton

Middle Reliever 2- Noe Ramirez

Long - Alvarez

Long 2- Brid

Bench- Valbuena/ Coward/ Juan/ EYJ 

 

[totdprods]

No more legitimate than what we post here, but always interesting to see what other sites post for trade theoreticals:

Angels and Kinsler:
motorcitybengals.com/2017/11/14/detroit-tigers-trio-free-agents-depth/

They pitch three ideas:
1) Kinsler for Thaiss with Detroit covering some money
2) Kinsler for Brennon Lund with no/little money involved
3) Kinsler for Blake Wood & lesser prospects

[Angelsfan1984]

58 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I shall now present to you the 2018-2019 angels Lineup And the Stats. Avg/OBP/Slug/Ops- Hrs/Rbi/Sb

1. 2nd base Cesar Hernandez ( Traded for trop and Duensing) ( .292/351/.370/.750) - 8/42/25

2. SS Andrelton Simmons ( .285/.343/.415/.760)- 16/64/18

3. Cf- Mike Trout (.321/.450/.645/1.035)- 32/115/15

4. Lf Justin Upton ( .270/.362/.500/.902)- 30/121/10

5. Dh Albert Pujols (.268/.325/.454/ .464/.802)- 25/101/2

6. 3rd  Mike Moustakas ( 3yrs 44 mil; with a 4th opt year)- ( .275/ .323/.523/.817)-32/102/0

7. 1st Cj Cron- ( .278/.335/.464/.780)- 24/82/2

8. Rf  Kole Calhoun - ( .265/.340/.430/.735)- 16/75/7

9. Martin Maldonado - _.245/.311/.400/.709)- 10/44/0

The starting Roation

NAME- Innings- W-/L- Era 

1. Richards- 145- 13/6-3.16

2. SKaggs- 182-14/7- 3.51

3. Chatwood( 2yrs/ 15 mil) - 165- 11/8- 3.37

4. Shoemaker- 178-12/10-3.94

5. Heaney- 140/ 7/5-3.62

Bp- 

Closer- Bedrock

Setup 1- Parker

Setup 2- Minor (3yrs/ 24mil)

Middle Reliever- Middelton

Middle Reliever 2- Noe Ramirez

Long - Alvarez

Long 2- Brid

Bench- Valbuena/ Coward/ Juan/ EYJ 

 

Id rather have Petit than Minor and I'd take Bridwell in the starting 5, but otherwise I think that might be spot on.