OC Register: Angels Notes: ‘Dialogue’ ongoing with Justin Upton

[IEAngelsfan]

There are two different scenarios here and I don't know if you know the difference.  The first is that Upton and his agent are currently negotiating an extension or a completely new contract because he does want to stay.  If they come to an agreement, he will opt out (a mere technicality) and a new contract will be drawn.  The second scenario is that he opts out and waits to see what he can get from any team.  The Angels would still be in contention.

What everyone here is alluding to is the first scenario.  

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

I just hope it works out better than the last left fielder the Angels signed for similar money.

Nobody has a crystal ball but Upton is, by all accounts, a good guy who enjoys playing baseball...

[nando714]

17 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

...And get him a Velcro glove...

I was thinking the same thing lol

[Ohtaniland]

6 minutes ago, IEAngelsfan said:

There are two different scenarios here and I don't know if you know the difference.  The first is that Upton and his agent are currently negotiating an extension or a completely new contract because he does want to stay.  If they come to an agreement, he will opt out (a mere technicality) and a new contract will be drawn.  The second scenario is that he opts out and waits to see what he can get from any team.  The Angels would still be in contention.

What everyone here is alluding to is the first scenario.  

I completely agree with the second scenario. Upton is going to chase more money and years. The first scenario is just wishful thinking and reminds me that Tanaka’s wife is an actress and likes the west coast so.....

[Slegnaac]

5 hours ago, Calzone said:

So he must already know that there are no other teams interested in him so it would be silly for him to wait and consider other offers. Got it. 

 

Or he doesn't want go through a process that has no certainty to it.  Perhaps his current team makes an offer that is better than dealing with an uncertain future.

[Glen]

15 hours ago, Stradling said:

And?  

Upton shouldn't make more than Reggie Jackson did!

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Glen said:

Upton shouldn't make more than Reggie Willits did!

Racist

[Jobu]

1 hour ago, Slegnaac said:

Or he doesn't want go through a process that has no certainty to it.  Perhaps his current team makes an offer that is better than dealing with an uncertain future.

I don't understand, why bid against yourself? If Upton doesn't want uncertainty then he just doesn't opt out.

[Stradling]

42 minutes ago, Jobu said:

I don't understand, why bid against yourself? If Upton doesn't want uncertainty then he just doesn't opt out.

Well you almost always bid against yourself.  There’s no certainty that other teams have outbid you until they sign the contract. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well you almost always bid against yourself.  There’s no certainty that other teams have outbid you until they sign the contract. 

Like marriage.

 

No, seriously.

[ettin]

20 hours ago, Calzone said:

So smart guys....

Obviously Upton would have to opt out to negotiate a new deal. If he opts out he automatically becomes a free agent and he will test the market. Don’t think for a minute that the Angels will have an inside advantage if he’s a free agent. Is there another team out there that’s willing to give him 5/$125M or more? If not, why should Arte?

Is there another team out there willing to give him more than what he is already making at 4/$90M with no trade protection? 

Would Upton force Arte into a bidding war with a mystery team? You know Arte won’t play that game. 

I hope he doesn’t opt out because we will either lose him or overpay to keep him. 

 

 

First of all Upton does NOT have to opt-out to negotiate a new deal. That is false. He can do anything between now and the time he has to make a decision right after the World Series ends. If he does negotiate a new deal the old one is superseded and the new one is enacted.

Secondly there may be teams out there that are willing to pay him more, certainly. But Upton and his agent have to weigh the value of him opting-out period and whether he can really gain more money on the open market and more importantly where he will have to play/move to make that money. Maybe Justin does not want to move to Philadelphia and play there. Geography will probably play a role in his decision.

Tax rates will also play a role in his decision and the Angels. If they renegotiate his contract it will fall under CA tax rates and the Angels will have to pay him more for him to make an actual increase in salary which the Halos may not want to do. I could be mistaken here but if he keeps his current contract it falls under Michigan tax codes (someone well versed in baseball contracts will have to correct me here if I'm wrong) not CA.

Finally I think that Upton would prefer, based on his family living/working on the West Coast, to play on the Best Coast. That would via geography give the Angels a slight advantage. Playing with Mike Trout might give the Angels a slight advantage. Playing on a team that is about to get significantly better might also be a slight advantage.

Edited October 14, 2017 by ettin

[ten ocho recon scout]

^agreed on the tax part. Thats a bigger deal than people think.

[Dick B Back]

If I'm not mistaken, players are taxed based on where each game is played. States with state income taxes require visiting players to pay tax for each game played there.

 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dick B Back said:

If I'm not mistaken, players are taxed based on where each game is played. States with state income taxes require visiting players to pay tax for each game played there.

 

This was my understanding. 

Edited October 14, 2017 by Stradling

[Second Base]

6 hours ago, halomatt said:

This is what I would hope for in this case.  I dunno.  Part of me thinks that this team should, once again, plug left field, and wait for the farm kids to develop.  From what I've read here, some are getting close to contributing.  Some might say we are "close to competing", but as someone else pointed out here, the only reason the Angels even made it a close race is because everyone was an average team too.  What I wouldn't want is another Hamilton contract.  If the Angels did extend or re-do the contract, I'd rather see Upton make more money over the same time span(four years).  I'm not sold on how this particular player will age. 

I'm not sold on how any particular player ages, but we are talking age 30-34 here, not 34-38. Upton has played long enough that we can zero on on his expected production. .270/.350 40 DB 30 HR 15 SB and decent enough defense is just who he is at this point. The past season and a half, ages 28/29 we've seen a slight uptick in production. 

So I think you're probably safe with assuming he'll put up the numbers for the next 3-4 years. Once he's 35 though, you're playing on borrowed time at that point, even most of the greats.

So extending to 5 years should be avoided if possible. I'd rather just pay more for 4.

[stormngt]

On 10/13/2017 at 6:59 AM, Angelsfan1984 said:

Do you think he takes an extra year but lowers his AAV?

5 year 100?

Oh the goal is to power AAV than we need to go a sixth year.

[stormngt]

18 hours ago, bruin5 said:

Another way to potentially think of this is the value of retaining their first round pick.  Signing a similar player could cost a first rounder, whereas you don’t lose that with Upton.  I have to say, however, that I don’t know if any of their other target would cause them to lose the pick.   

Why do people still think we lose a 1st round pick by signing a free agent. Isn't it only a 2nd round?

[Ohtaniland]

4 hours ago, Jobu said:

I don't understand, why bid against yourself? If Upton doesn't want uncertainty then he just doesn't opt out.

This^^^^

I find it incredibly funny that everyone here is ready to hand Upton more of Arte’s money when he’s already contractually obligated to the Angels. Let it play out. He may not opt out. 

[tdawg87]

48 minutes ago, Calzone said:

This^^^^

I find it incredibly funny that everyone here is ready to hand Upton more of Arte’s money when he’s already contractually obligated to the Angels. Let it play out. He may not opt out. 

[ettin]

3 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

If I'm not mistaken, players are taxed based on where each game is played. States with state income taxes require visiting players to pay tax for each game played there.

 

 

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

This was my understanding. 

Ahhh yes you are both correct I had forgotten about that.

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, Calzone said:

This^^^^

I find it incredibly funny that everyone here is ready to hand Upton more of Arte’s money when he’s already contractually obligated to the Angels. Let it play out. He may not opt out. 

He’s not at all contractually obligated to the Angels, well I guess he is for a couple more weeks.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 hours ago, Calzone said:

Upton is going to chase more money and years.

If he does that we need to stay in touch with him, while also talking to JD Martinez, Jay Bruce, and other OF.

[Tank]

23 hours ago, Stradling said:

And if they “pony up” you’ll be able to spew your old narrative.  

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

On the tax thing, he's taxed based on where he plays, regardless of which team originally signed him to the contract. 

On the idea of not offering him anything before he opts out, that's the point of talking to him now. Both sides are no doubt feeling out the other. That's how negotiations work. It's likely that even if Upton totally intends to stay and wants to stay, he might still like a little more money if he thinks he'd be leaving some on the table by passing on free agency. No different from any player under control who gives up free agent years to sign a multiyear deal.  They have even less leverage but teams still give them money close to their free agent value. That's why Trout's salary is going up about $10M from 17 to 18.

Finally, both national media members I've asked about Upton think he's going to stay because of what he went through last time and the market being a sometimes scary place for guys expecting $100M deals. He didn't sign till January last time. 

Also this: when he was 28, no one wanted to buy his age 35 season. Since then, his 28 and 29 seasons were mixed, one good one not so good. So what's the value of that age 35 season now? 

This is why I think anyone who suggests he can just snap his fingers and get more years by opting out is wrong. Maybe he can, maybe he can't.

[Glen]

Posts like that are part of the reason I'm glad you're here, Jeff. I appreciate the perspective you bring.