Baseball Prospectus introduces "Tunneling"

[Brent Maguire]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31030

I thought this was worth posting because it potentially looks like a big breakthrough for evaluating pitchers in a different way. It looks like we will now have an available stat that helps measure a pitcher's ability to be deceptive. This is pretty huge as some pitchers blow past their peripheral stats and this could help identify particular pitchers who don't need gaudy K/BB numbers to succeed. Long and very dense article but anybody interested in some in depth analysis would enjoy this. With "tunneling" in the fold with all the StatCast data, baseball analysis could get really fun in the next few years. 

[totdprods]

Whoa.

[Blarg]

I am pretty sure with all of the advanced stats baseball can make it so every team is perfectly optimized and end up with 162 tied games. 

[Junkballer]

[eaterfan]

37 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I am pretty sure with all of the advanced stats baseball can make it so every team is perfectly optimized and end up with 162 tied games. 

Yup. You nailed it. Every team will have 162 ties this year. 

[eaterfan]

37 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I am pretty sure with all of the advanced stats baseball can make it so every team is perfectly optimized and end up with 162 tied games. 

Yup. You nailed it. Every team will have 162 ties this year. 

[Angel Oracle]

You mean, like in soccer?

[Angels#1Fan]

^^^lol Exactly lol^^^

[Oz27]

On 26/01/2017 at 2:33 PM, Angels_Baseball said:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31030

I thought this was worth posting because it potentially looks like a big breakthrough for evaluating pitchers in a different way. It looks like we will now have an available stat that helps measure a pitcher's ability to be deceptive. This is pretty huge as some pitchers blow past their peripheral stats and this could help identify particular pitchers who don't need gaudy K/BB numbers to succeed. Long and very dense article but anybody interested in some in depth analysis would enjoy this. With "tunneling" in the fold with all the StatCast data, baseball analysis could get really fun in the next few years. 

I just caught up with the whole series. I love the concept and can't wait to get to know it more. It will help us have a better understanding of why certain pitchers are successful, in quantifying a cause of deception (different pitches looking the same or similar at the point the hitter has to choose whether or not to swing).

[ukyah]

it seems like they could have got a lot more out of this monetarily, by taking this to individual teams on contract. i could really see the utilization for pitch sequencing, etc, as they mentioned. 

[eaterfan]

10 hours ago, ukyah said:

it seems like they could have got a lot more out of this monetarily, by taking this to individual teams on contract. i could really see the utilization for pitch sequencing, etc, as they mentioned. 

I'd imagine teams already do this. This type of data has been available to teams long before it was made public.

[Troll Daddy]

Weave has great tunnel vision

[WeatherWonk]

Just throw the damn ball! Get up there and hit it!!!

There is such a thing as over-analyzing something as beautiful as baseball, guys.

Or, are you going to be showing up to games in your new uniforms?

Cant wait to see mustard and beer all over it.

 

 

[Oz27]

24 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

Just throw the damn ball! Get up there and hit it!!!

Dammit, I'm going to have to tell Baseball Prospectus I'm canceling my membership. No use paying for it when I can get such thoughtful analysis here.

But seriously, some people enjoy the game by analyzing it and understanding it more thoroughly. Why is that such a problem to you?

[WeatherWonk]

If you want to take all the humanity out of the game, and reduce it to a bunch of equations, go for it. I wont stop you.

BTW, what is the correct decibel level I should be cheering at, in Anaheim? What's the correct core temperature of the hot dog supposed to be?

Hey, I'm just messin' with ya. I wont try and talk anyone out of what I feel is OVER analyzing the game.

But I reserve the right to poke fun at it. 

[ukyah]

7 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

If you want to take all the humanity out of the game, and reduce it to a bunch of equations, go for it. I wont stop you.

BTW, what is the correct decibel level I should be cheering at, in Anaheim? What's the correct core temperature of the hot dog supposed to be?

Hey, I'm just messin' with ya. I wont try and talk anyone out of what I feel is OVER analyzing the game.

But I reserve the right to poke fun at it. 

did nasa take all the humanity out of exploration?

no. because the unexamined life is not worth living. people look closely and want to understand something more intimately because they care about it. 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

did nasa take all the humanity out of exploration?

no. because the unexamined life is not worth living. people look closely and want to understand something more intimately because they care about it. 

Woah! Nice one ukyah!

[Oz27]

9 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

But I reserve the right to poke fun at it. 

No problem, I'll reserve the right to poke fun at you for consciously deciding that being ignorant is good.

[Glen]

In unrelated news, Mexico will reintroduce tunneling if construction on the wall begins.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, Oz27 said:

No problem, I'll reserve the right to poke fun at you for consciously deciding that being ignorant is good.

This post personifies the arrogance of "sabr guy".  Just because someone wants to enjoy the game for what it is rather than turning it into a math equation doesn't mean they are ignorant. You enjoy breaking the game down to numbers, some people simply enjoy the game.  I don't need to know what Trout's OPS+ is to know he's good or to enjoy watching him play.  

[Blarg]

8 hours ago, ukyah said:

did nasa take all the humanity out of exploration?

no. because the unexamined life is not worth living. people look closely and want to understand something more intimately because they care about it. 

Space travel isn't a sport. It never was and the whole purpose was to speed up the learning curve of missile technology and later satellite, in a palatable format for the citizens to back. 

Baseball has become even more and more business orientated with greater attention on cost and risk analysis in every department and that includes player development. It doesn't advance the enjoyment by the core fans anymore than reading payload stats for a Saturn five booster rocket. 

In the end people went out to rocket launches for the sheer excitement of those massive engines firing up and the delay from where you were to when the sounds hits you and you start cheering. Like a great play you watch unfold, you are prompted to cheer and not because a pitchers xfip was altered by the Nth power and the hitter out played his babhip. Because it was awesome to watch in it's simplicity. 

I enjoyed the game a lot more before I started picking it apart for the statistical breakdowns. Now I find myself deciding whether to watch the rest of the game based on what the logical match ups would be and the percentages of a turnaround. Stupid. Had I done that years ago I might not had witnessed Eckstein hitting his 2nd grand slam home run in consecutive games,  winning it in the 14th in walk off fashion back in April of 2002. 

Naw, I'd still wait it out but recently I have been giving up on games that in the past I would have stuck it out not knowing the statistical improbably. I'm trying to get back to not giving so much if a fuck about the numbers and just enjoy the game while it is still a little less predictable. It may just evolve to 9th level chess,  boring as hell to watch. If it does I'm going fishing.

Without an electronic fish finder. 

 

[Troll Daddy]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

This post personifies the arrogance of "sabr guy".  Just because someone wants to enjoy the game for what it is rather than turning it into a math equation doesn't mean they are ignorant. You enjoy breaking the game down to numbers, some people simply enjoy the game.  I don't need to know what Trout's OPS+ is to know he's good or to enjoy watching him play.  

I so proud of you ... seriously!

[Dick B Back]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I so proud of you ... seriously!

Who woulda thunk it?!

[eaterfan]

10 hours ago, Stradling said:

This post personifies the arrogance of "sabr guy".  Just because someone wants to enjoy the game for what it is rather than turning it into a math equation doesn't mean they are ignorant. You enjoy breaking the game down to numbers, some people simply enjoy the game.  I don't need to know what Trout's OPS+ is to know he's good or to enjoy watching him play.  

You mean the guy who responded to the second condescending poster in a thread about sabr metrics? If you don't want to enjoy advanced stats and what's behind them then you probably shouldn't be telling those who do enjoy them how to enjoy the game in a thread about a new stat from BP. OZ didn't tell him how to enjoy the game, he was responding to someone telling him how to enjoy the game and saying he'd mock Oz for it. 

But by definition, not knowing about something is ignorance. You don't have to believe any of it, or care about any of it. But not learning about something makes you ignorant of it. An example in my is that watching the news and reading the newspaper has made me very stressed out. I've stopped doing that. I enjoy my life a lot more, but I'm certainly a lot less informed or ignorant. It's how I'm choosing to live my life right now though. 

[Oz27]

8 hours ago, Stradling said:

This post personifies the arrogance of "sabr guy".  Just because someone wants to enjoy the game for what it is rather than turning it into a math equation doesn't mean they are ignorant. You enjoy breaking the game down to numbers, some people simply enjoy the game.  I don't need to know what Trout's OPS+ is to know he's good or to enjoy watching him play.  

This is a strange take, which eaterfan did a good job of responding to.

I have no issue with people enjoying the game in the way they want to. But I have an issue with someone who comes into a sabr thread, acts in a condescending manner, making the same lame and tired "jokes" while telling sabr people they're enjoying the game wrong.That isn't "just ... someone wanting to enjoy the game for what it is", it is somebody being an ass.