Dipoto still churning the M's roster

[WeatherWonk]

Mariners acquire Dyson from Royals. Also add Gallardo.

Beginning to look like it's a good thing we have a catcher who can throw out runners. First Rajai Davis in OAK and now Dyson in SEA. Rangers were a plus team in SB, too.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213018170/mariners-acquire-jarrod-dyson-for-nathan-karns/

[totdprods]

Script sounds similar to Dipoto's Angels tenure. First offseason, all sound and fury, a lot of pumped up Mariners fans. Second offseason, more shuffling of the deck, a lot of pumped up fans but a couple fans starting to question some of the moves, realizing how lateral or short-sighted the marginal improvements are....

They could be really good this year still, but that team could also get ugly quick.  

[ettin]

They just acquired Nate Karns and now they flip him for one year of Dyson? It is a strange move to be honest in the long run. Don't get me wrong I love Dyson and wish the Angels had him but that seems like a high price for one year of him.

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, cezero said:

any knowledgeable baseball fan in or out of seattle knew it would take at least 2 or 3 cycles of winter/july trades for any GM to make the m's a contender after the catastrophe of jack z and the idiotic ownership group in place until just a few months ago with the coup.

Yeah but certain people here have fun building narratives and it wouldn't be as fun as facts got in the way of that. While I don't think the Mariners' long-term outlook is great, it's not a stretch to see them contending this year.

The Dyson-Karns one should be a good one for them. I don't think Karns is that good and Dyson is pretty solid.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, cezero said:

any knowledgeable baseball fan in or out of seattle knew it would take at least 2 or 3 cycles of winter/july trades for any GM to make the m's a contender after the catastrophe of jack z and the idiotic ownership group in place until just a few months ago with the coup. 

it'll take as much or more for the angels, most likely. 

That's because Dipoto was the previous GM.

[WeatherWonk]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

That's because Dipoto was the previous GM.

Or, is it because Arte is still the owner?

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, WeatherWonk said:

Or, is it because Arte is still the owner?

Arte should have drafted much better and Arte shouldn't have signed Baldoquin.  

[WeatherWonk]

I guess it all boils down to whether one thinks that Arte was responsible for the signings of Albert and Hamilton and Wilson. Some in the media have reported that it was all Arte. That cost the farm system mightily. 

Didn't Arte can Eddie Bane, too? Before Dipoto's tenure?

[Stradling]

No I get it.  Arte has some of the blame, but it is possible to draft quality after round one and really Dipoto drafts left a lot to be desired.  I think Arte was on board with the Albert signing but I read something on here that at least intimated Dipoto was complicit in the signing.  Wilson was on Dipoto although I don't have a huge issue with that signing.  Josh I believe was the fall back plan after Greinke became out of reach.  

[eligrba4ever]

JeDi seems to be engaged in something of a roster churn. Different faces but essentially the same players. Karns for Gallardo and Smith for  Dyson. Karns is a bit younger (29) than Gallardo (33). Smith (34) is two years older than Dyson. Off recent seasons, flip a coin with Karns and Gallardo. Dyson in 7 seasons has never had more than 337 PAs. Smith has been close to a regular or dominating in a platoon in most of his 10 years. I didn't check the pay stubs, but I would guess they are more or less dollar for dollar as well.

[Docwaukee]

The seemingly helpful and innocuous trade is a Dipoto hallmark.  

Jerry is known to prefer trades to free agents.  He says it gets him more of the specific guy he wants as opposed to someone that isn't necessarily the right fit.  

I think it's clear that JD wasn't totally in charge of roster construction for the Halos.  Especially when it came to higher end free agent moves.  But there are a lot of the same types of deals being made for the M's that were made for the halos beyond those big ticket items.  

Jerry gets the player he wants but in doing so tends to give up a player or players who have more club control.  Or he'll get his high floor near major league ready player for the higher upside guys lower down in the farm system.  He also tends to get a throw in player or two.  It's all a variation of above.  But in the end, he moves more future value and control than he gets in current value and control.  

It's a system that can probably work if you draft and develop players well.  Theoretically, you should know your lower level players better than other teams while it's probably easier to evaluate guys in the upper levels from other systems as they are more known quantities. 

The best moves Jerry made for the halos were when he moved established talent for less established talent.  Conger, Trumbo, Kendrick.   

He hasn't done a ton of that for the M's although at the time, I thought the Miller for Karns deal was solid.  So we'll see if now moving 4 more years of Karns for 1yr of Dyson is a good deal.  Or 4 years of Walker and 5 of Marte for Segura and his usual throw ins.  Or Blackburn for Valencia.  Or Miley for Miranda (thought that one was pretty decent as well).  Or Gamel for minor leaguers.  Or Montgomery for Vogelbach and Blackburn.  

Anyway, I see a a fair amount of club control going out the door.  The M's better hope JD's team drafts a hell of a lot better than they did for us.  Because at the end of the day, while a lot of the talent he moved for more established players wasn't exactly front line, it depletes the overall amount of org currency.  We should have been able to recover from moving Almonte, Diaz, Sanchez, Pena, Segura, Sappington, Clevinger, Chatwood, Lindsey, Alvarez, Grichuk, Geltz, Amarista, Roach, Rondon, Krehbiel.  But that's just a ton of volume when what is coming back is giving you production for 1-3 years or so even though its doesn't seem like a huge outlay on the front end.  

[Oz27]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Anyway, I see a a fair amount of club control going out the door.  The M's better hope JD's team drafts a hell of a lot better than they did for us.  Because at the end of the day, while a lot of the talent he moved for more established players wasn't exactly front line, it depletes the overall amount of org currency.  We should have been able to recover from moving Almonte, Diaz, Sanchez, Pena, Segura, Sappington, Clevinger, Chatwood, Lindsey, Alvarez, Grichuk, Geltz, Amarista, Roach, Rondon, Krehbiel.  But that's just a ton of volume when what is coming back is giving you production for 1-3 years or so even though its doesn't seem like a huge outlay on the front end.  

What alternative did he have though? He inherited a shit-show that wasn't good enough to win immediately but whose future prospects were much worse. They need to go hard now - arguably even harder than they're doing. They were never going to be well placed to be good after this next couple of years.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

What alternative did he have though? He inherited a shit-show that wasn't good enough to win immediately but whose future prospects were much worse. They need to go hard now - arguably even harder than they're doing. They were never going to be well placed to be good after this next couple of years.

not sure.  They're gonna be a solid team with a chance to make the playoffs.  I am not sure which method I like better.  

The Dipoto method which to me is a series of lateral moves and/or mild upgrades with a death by a thousand cuts to the farm system.  Trades for high floor guys who are likely to do ok

or

The Eppler method where you roll the dice on 1yr lesser trades and minor league free agents that may end up productive but most likely end up producing like minor league free agents.  

the latter is more likely to give you a sustainable future while the former gives you a better chance to win now.  After seeing what the former does when you don't draft well, I'm inclined to favor the latter.  But where we're headed isn't exactly a short road back to being competitive either.  The presence of Trout complicates how to proceed as well.  

tough call.   

[arch stanton]

This is a franchise with no WS and hasn't even been to the playoffs in 15 years. I don't believe he was brought in to build a long term foundation. They want success and they want it quick. He'll wheel and deal until they win it all or someone comes and cleans out his office for him. 

[Oz27]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

not sure.  They're gonna be a solid team with a chance to make the playoffs.  I am not sure which method I like better.  

The Dipoto method which to me is a series of lateral moves and/or mild upgrades with a death by a thousand cuts to the farm system.  Trades for high floor guys who are likely to do ok

or

The Eppler method where you roll the dice on 1yr lesser trades and minor league free agents that may end up productive but most likely end up producing like minor league free agents.  

the latter is more likely to give you a sustainable future while the former gives you a better chance to win now.  After seeing what the former does when you don't draft well, I'm inclined to favor the latter.  But where we're headed isn't exactly a short road back to being competitive either.  The presence of Trout complicates how to proceed as well.  

tough call.   

I think when Dipoto took over, they had to go hard in one direction and it made most sense to go down the 'win now' avenue. They had a few players who were still good but whose trade value probably wasn't that high for contractual reasons (Hernandez, Cruz and Cano). Realistically they were stuck with all three and could expect greatly diminished performance from all three of them in the final years of their contracts. Therefore their future was pretty much screwed anyway, even if they had followed the Eppler method. They had some contracts that were going to soon turn bad - belonging to players who are currently still productive (or in the case of Cano and Cruz much better than that) and not huge amounts on the farm. If they weren't going to try to win in the 2016-2018 window, when was it going to happen? They had to do whatever they could to maximize their chances of winning then. In fact if I had one criticism of Dipoto's Seattle tenure it would be not going hard enough in that direction, although to be fair lack of trade chips and lack of money could be the reasons for that.

[eligrba]

Now that Dipoto is in charge of the Mariners, I have no concerns regarding the Mariners.

 

However, I am concerned abut the Rangers and Astros.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Oz27 said:

I think when Dipoto took over, they had to go hard in one direction and it made most sense to go down the 'win now' avenue. They had a few players who were still good but whose trade value probably wasn't that high for contractual reasons (Hernandez, Cruz and Cano). Realistically they were stuck with all three and could expect greatly diminished performance from all three of them in the final years of their contracts. Therefore their future was pretty much screwed anyway, even if they had followed the Eppler method. They had some contracts that were going to soon turn bad - belonging to players who are currently still productive (or in the case of Cano and Cruz much better than that) and not huge amounts on the farm. If they weren't going to try to win in the 2016-2018 window, when was it going to happen? They had to do whatever they could to maximize their chances of winning then. In fact if I had one criticism of Dipoto's Seattle tenure it would be not going hard enough in that direction, although to be fair lack of trade chips and lack of money could be the reasons for that.

Hernandez is easily the biggest trade chip in the Mariners organization and would bring in a haul of talent. Nelson Cruz has two more years at $14.5, another big trade chip that would rake prospects. Only Cano is immoveable. 

You had earlier said something about building narratives, yours seems to be all excuses Dipoto.

[Oz27]

52 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Hernandez is easily the biggest trade chip in the Mariners organization and would bring in a haul of talent. Nelson Cruz has two more years at $14.5, another big trade chip that would rake prospects. Only Cano is immoveable. 

You had earlier said something about building narratives, yours seems to be all excuses Dipoto.

I know you don't like letting facts get in the way of your hyperbolic bullshit but Hernandez is declining big time and is owed a heap of money. I wouldn't go anywhere near that contract and saying he could bring back a "big haul of talent" now is just wrong. His trade value is much lower than Seager's too, saying he is by far their biggest trade chip is rubbish. There is also the issue of his full no trade clause limiting whatever value he has too. Teams aren't going to be falling over themselves to give up scores of legitimate young talent for Nelson Cruz's age 36 and 37 seasons either. I never called him untradeable, I suggested the expected return means it wouldn't make sense for them given the to move him given the overall state of the organization.

Anyway, what issue are you taking with my actual point? The Mariners' long-term future looked bleak when he took over and it made more sense for them to try to win now, while they still had a decent core, rather than blow it up and start again (and much more sense than taking a middle ground approach). Calling that "making excuses" is just the usual level of nonsense we've come to expect from you.

[Blarg]

You talk too much. Hernandez would be gone in 30 seconds if he lifted his no trade clause, Cruz would take a little over a minute. And you didn't say this? 

Realistically they were stuck with all three...

[Oz27]

8 hours ago, Blarg said:

You talk too much. Hernandez would be gone in 30 seconds if he lifted his no trade clause, Cruz would take a little over a minute. And you didn't say this? 

Realistically they were stuck with all three...

Yes and I know reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but try reading it in context. I was suggesting they were stuck with them because their limited value meant it didn't make sense to move them.

As for Hernandez, sure, multiple teams would take him. But the idea he is going to fetch premium talent anymore is just wrong. He has declined rapidly. Your statement that he is by far their most valuable trade chip is laughably wrong.

[Brent Maguire]

10 hours ago, Oz27 said:

What alternative did he have though? He inherited a shit-show that wasn't good enough to win immediately but whose future prospects were much worse. They need to go hard now - arguably even harder than they're doing. They were never going to be well placed to be good after this next couple of years.

Almost seems like teams are viewing him like Dombrowski. You'll bring Dipoto in and he'll do his best to make the MLB team a good unit but like Doc mentioned, he's sending a lot of club controlled players and prospects out in the process. It didn't work with the Angels but the situation in Seattle was eerily similar and he's doing his best to salvage the last good years of Cano, Felix, Kuma, Cruz, etc. 

[totdprods]

Crazy that Felix's ERA+ is down to 107 over the last two seasons - 56 starts. I knew he had declined but that is far more...average? than I had expected. In his age 29 and 30 season no less.

They're two completely different pitchers, but Weaver's first major 'decline' was his Age 30 and 31 seasons - 58 starts, and a 106 ERA+. 

Three years and $81.6m guaranteed still on Felix's contract. There's a reasonable chance that Felix may not be worth much in a trade this time next year. There's a lot of mileage on that arm, and that's a lot of money for someone who was just a tick above average his last two years at such a young age.

Mariners are fortunate Cano righted the ship, and really hit the jackpot with Cruz, but that pitching staff could look really ugly really fast, especially with Walker and Montgomery no longer in the picture. 

[Stradling]

Still a very movable contract and yes he would fetch a pretty damn good return.  The Dodgers would take him as would the Rangers. 

[LegendaryPujols#5]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

Now that Dipoto is in charge of the Mariners, I have no concerns regarding the Mariners.

 

However, I am concerned abut the Rangers and Astros.

Looking at their lineup... I have a lot of concerns as they were better than us last year even with down years from both Iwakuma and Hernandez. Of course our pitching staff was fcuked up as well but on the papers our lineup was better.  

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Still a very movable contract and yes he would fetch a pretty damn good return.  The Dodgers would take him as would the Rangers. 

As of right now, yes, he is - but they aren't dealing him right now. Plus he has a no-trade. But a year from now it could be a different story. He's an injury or a sub-par year away from looking like a big concern.

Hell I'd probably still take him though.