Pitching Framing Runs

[eaterfan]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

if Catcher A is a great framer, and Catcher B is terrible, why wouldn't there be a year to year difference in a pitchers era with catcher A vs. that with catcher B?

Let's say that factor A through J impact whether a pitcher is going to have a better era with one catcher vs. another.  Let's say that factor C is pitch framing.  Let's say you had Sal Perez and Buster Posey as your two catchers and they split time equally.  Let's say you were somehow able to neutralize all the other factors like the same umpires and having them catch the same pitcher the same number of times vs the same batters in the same park under the same conditions etc then theoretically, by the end of the season there would be a 24 run delta in run prevention when buster caught vs. when sal caught.  (half of their 2016 numbers ie 13.5 runs from posed and 10 runs from sal because they each only caught half the games).  If the team era was 4.0, then buster's CERA would be 3.85 and Sal's would be 4.15.  

Now, they have statistically proven that CERA isn't a reproducible phenomena from year to year.  But one catcher might be 5 wins better at framing than the other?  

This tells me that all those other factors that affect CERA which cannot be isolated or measured appropriately essentially cancel out the effect that framing has on the overall impact of run prevention.  Or they think they have isolated the factors that affect framing but they really haven't.  

Essentially what this is saying is that framing may have up to a 5 win impact between catchers, but that is somehow not reflected in a pitcher's era when those catchers are catching said pitchers.  

Catcher framing is a sub-component of CERA.  If the impact if 5 wins, then we should see at least a marginal effect.  

My opinion is that framing is real.  But they haven't truly isolated the impact of it, and they haven't found a way to assign value to certain things (like sequencing, setup, and scouting) that impact the true value of what a catcher brings to the table.  It absolutely doesn't make sense to me that a catcher's ability from top to bottom doesn't impact a pitchers era in some way.  Maybe CERA isn't a perfect way to measure, but if there is variable run prevention by one of the factors (framing), then there should be a way to do a better job of isolating a catcher's overall impact on the game.  

There are year to year differences in ERA from pitchers when they switch catchers. And pitchers aren't responsible for their entire ERA either. That's why they have FIP. But in addition, the fluctuation isn't as much because a lot of pitchers don't change catchers year to year, but even if a framer is pretty good (25 runs better than the previous catcher) that pitcher is only pitching every 5th day and even then not a whole game mostly. That means that pitcher is probably only getting an additional 4 runs saved over 180 innings. It means a .020 ERA savings assuming everything else was equal.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

There are year to year differences in ERA from pitchers when they switch catchers. And pitchers aren't responsible for their entire ERA either. That's why they have FIP. But in addition, the fluctuation isn't as much because a lot of pitchers don't change catchers year to year, but even if a framer is pretty good (25 runs better than the previous catcher) that pitcher is only pitching every 5th day and even then not a whole game mostly. That means that pitcher is probably only getting an additional 4 runs saved over 180 innings. It means a .020 ERA savings assuming everything else was equal.

that explains why the difference might be small in certain cases whereas it does not explain why the article posted shows that CERA is not a sustainable skill.  If I can have a 5 win effect on the game by the way I frame, I am going to have a reproducible effect on my pitchers era.  5 wins isn't subtle.  buster posey should have a better cera than Sal Perez.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that explains why the difference might be small in certain cases whereas it does not explain why the article posted shows that CERA is not a sustainable skill.  If I can have a 5 win effect on the game by the way I frame, I am going to have a reproducible effect on my pitchers era.  5 wins isn't subtle.  buster posey should have a better cera than Sal Perez.  

Let's see, if the distance between best and worst is 5 wins, that's +25 runs for the best catcher and -25 runs for the worst. At the same time the best and worst performers are almost always outliers playing above and below their true talent level, so year in, year out +/- 20 (being generous here) might be a more accurate long term projection.

Your typical AL team gives up about 4.5 runs per game, or 724 runs per year. 20 runs represents 2.7% of the teams total runs allowed. AL teams averaged 8.9 innings per game as well. Lets again be generous and say these catchers were responsible for half of their teams innings caught. That would mean those 20 runs represents 5.4% of the teams runs allowed while he was behind the plate for ~720 innings. If you convert that to cERA it is 0.25, or a quarter run per game. 

0.25 is 1/18 of the runs per game total, and almost 6% of the catchers cERA. 

While this looks significant, this 6% represents the signal in what is probably 90% noise. 

[Oz27]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that explains why the difference might be small in certain cases whereas it does not explain why the article posted shows that CERA is not a sustainable skill.  If I can have a 5 win effect on the game by the way I frame, I am going to have a reproducible effect on my pitchers era.  5 wins isn't subtle.  buster posey should have a better cera than Sal Perez.  

Well in the same controlled environment he would, right? But there are far too many factors CERA doesn't account for (ballpark, quality of offense, quality of the pitching staff, umpires etc.) that it is impossible to compare one catcher to someone from another team and make reasonable judgements about them based off that metric. Even with two catchers on the same team, it isn't fair. I've read that Scioscia used it to compare two different catchers on his team (that was back in the Napoli/Mathis days), but only in their CERAs with specific pitchers. Even that is absurdly unfair though because it doesn't factor in so many things and also creates an unreasonably small sample. Did one guy catch that pitcher in Colorado and Houston and did the other guy do it in Oakland and San Diego? Did one guy catch him against two of the best hitting teams and did the other guy catch him against two of the worst? Did one guy happen to be catching with home plate umpires who have small strike zones? Over a large sample these things would even out, but in the scenario Scioscia was using it for the sample would not be big enough to eliminate the large chunks of noise and get it down to the signal. If we somehow recreated the same conditions for two catchers over a very large sample, then the better framer should have better CERA results (barring any other factors, such as if his game calling is vastly inferior). But that isn't possible for us to do.

It would be possible to take CERA, control it for many of those things I just mentioned and make it a more useful number. But I'm guessing the reason that hasn't been done is we just have better metrics to judge catchers. I know we disagree to an extent but I consider framing data very reliable. Game calling statistics are close on a public sense and I'm sure are already used by teams. We can calculate blocking and throwing runs easily enough. Also, even if you did control for those things there would still be an awful lot of noise in CERA too. Someone like Posey can frame all he wants but if he happens to be getting more shitty pitchers throwing meatballs down the heart of the plate than whoever he is being compared to, then his CERA (or CERA+ or whatever it would be) would still be worse.

 

[tdawg87]

Oz, I like you, you're a cool, intelligent guy and I'd probably sword fight in the bathroom with you, but I'm going to side with Doc on this one, and also respectfully disagree on the importance of pitch framing. I'm definitely more saber inclined than average, but this one just crawls under my skin. Partly because I, admittedly, don't understand it. But what I do understand makes no sense to me. 

I believe framing is important and should be given more respect in the stat field, but I'm just not onboard with WARP yet or the implication that framing is worth more than 1 win at most.

To me, this seems like a useful stat that's still working out the kinks.

[tdawg87]

Only if you've got a duel blade so we can Obi-wan and Qui-gon that shit.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Oz, I like you, you're a cool, intelligent guy and I'd probably sword fight in the bathroom with you, but I'm going to side with Doc on this one, and also respectfully disagree on the importance of pitch framing. I'm definitely more saber inclined than average, but this one just crawls under my skin. Partly because I, admittedly, don't understand it. But what I do understand makes no sense to me. 

I believe framing is important and should be given more respect in the stat field, but I'm just not onboard with WARP yet or the implication that framing is worth more than 1 win at most.

To me, this seems like a useful stat that's still working out the kinks.

 

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

Can I get in this sword fight?

Come on you two admit to what it really is.... a scabbard fight.

[JAHV76]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Only if you've got a duel blade so we can Obi-wan and Qui-gon that shit.

 

[Oz27]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Oz, I like you, you're a cool, intelligent guy and I'd probably sword fight in the bathroom with you, but I'm going to side with Doc on this one, and also respectfully disagree on the importance of pitch framing. I'm definitely more saber inclined than average, but this one just crawls under my skin. Partly because I, admittedly, don't understand it. But what I do understand makes no sense to me. 

I believe framing is important and should be given more respect in the stat field, but I'm just not onboard with WARP yet or the implication that framing is worth more than 1 win at most.

To me, this seems like a useful stat that's still working out the kinks.

Well sure, but who wouldn't you sword fight in the bathroom with?

[tdawg87]

Kelvim Escobar. That's like bringing a tic tac to a Zweihander fight.

[IEAngelsfan]

12 hours ago, ANAHEIMBOB said:

I would put an aluminum foil hat on my head,  if I thought it help get Scioscia fired.

I've noticed something odd with some of your posts like the one above. The font changes and gets smaller in mid-sentence. Typically, when someone wants to emphasize a part of a sentence or word, they would simply highlight the text and make it bolder. This gives the text a larger and darker appearance. Your text gets smaller and is a completely different font.

This is very unusual and to be honest, creeps me out and makes me feel uncomfortable.

[Blarg]

18 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Can I get in this sword fight?

Pocket knives aren't eligible.

[Troll Daddy]

My last post for 2016

Yasmani Grandal is Noah Syndergaard

Salvador Perez is Hector Santiago 

This comparison is classic stuff! 

Enjoy a happy and safe New Year everyone 

 

[Oz27]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

My last post for 2016

Yasmani Grandal is Noah Syndergaard

Salvador Perez is Hector Santiago 

This comparison is classic stuff! 

Enjoy a happy and safe New Year everyone 

 

Hey genius, I think you forgot to check the statistical category you seem to believe is most important...

Grandal's 2016 RBI total: 72

Perez's 2016 RBI total: 64

I thought RBIs were king?

[Stradling]

@Oz27 how hard do you get watching this video?

[WeatherWonk]

You KNOW the Angels have had an uneventful, make that boring, off season when pitch framing garners 8 pages...........and counting!!!

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

@Oz27 how hard do you get watching this video?

I would definitely sword fight with that dude in the bathroom.

[Troll Daddy]

22 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Oz27 how hard do you get watching this video?

You compare him to Kershaw ... right Oz?