If every player except Trout were traded......

[Docwaukee]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29951

 

the above is a podcast from Baseball Prospectus breaking down the value of every single Angel player except Trout should they be traded.  Pretty interesting. 

 

 

 

[Oz27]

35 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29951

 

the above is a podcast from Baseball Prospectus breaking down the value of every single Angel player except Trout should they be traded.  Pretty interesting. 

 

 

 

You're more brave than I am starting this thread

Like I said in the other thread, a couple of these might have been a bit under (like Tyler Skaggs). But there are some really interesting possibilities raised in this. For example, the Bedrosian one. If he did this for the next 12 months, for example, the haul he could command at the next trade deadline would be freaking gigantic. Even if he just has a good second half, he would be a hugely valuable trade piece if we chose to trade him in the offseason (and yes, I know we won't).

[Second Base]

I'm generally in favor of trading any RP that's on a stupid-good run. They're so volatile in nature that you should capitalize if you could, the Klentak did with Giles and the Padres did twice in the last year. But if your bullpen is Cam Bedrosian and six heaping piles of dog crap, it's best not to trade the only good one you actually have. So if Eppler brings in three free agent relievers that are tearing it up next year, then go ahead and deal Bedrock. But if Cam is the only RP you see consistently getting the job done over the next few years, hold onto him.

[Oz27]

3 minutes ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

I'm generally in favor of trading any RP that's on a stupid-good run. They're so volatile in nature that you should capitalize if you could, the Klentak did with Giles and the Padres did twice in the last year. But if your bullpen is Cam Bedrosian and six heaping piles of dog crap, it's best not to trade the only good one you actually have. So if Eppler brings in three free agent relievers that are tearing it up next year, then go ahead and deal Bedrock. But if Cam is the only RP you see consistently getting the job done over the next few years, hold onto him.

There is some merit in that but not really in our position. Either way, if someone offers you a package like Philly got for Giles for a reliever you have to take it.

[Diaz15]

Effectively Wild is one of my favorite podcast and this episode was pretty good. Ben and Sam are rad

[Docwaukee]

26 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

You're more brave than I am starting this thread

Like I said in the other thread, a couple of these might have been a bit under (like Tyler Skaggs). But there are some really interesting possibilities raised in this. For example, the Bedrosian one. If he did this for the next 12 months, for example, the haul he could command at the next trade deadline would be freaking gigantic. Even if he just has a good second half, he would be a hugely valuable trade piece if we chose to trade him in the offseason (and yes, I know we won't).

I think it's obvious that was an exercise.  Very interesting though.  I think if you could get what they are talking about for someone like Shoe, he'd have been traded.  

An average system's #6 and #12 for Hector would have been acceptable.  But neither have Meyer's upside.  

I think they undervalued Cron, Skaggs and Perez.   I still don't like the Cron=Trumbo comps.  Cron is a better hitter, he strikes out less and is worse on defense.  Plus he can't play LF.  That said, I don't think he's done improving.  Skaggs has top of the rotation stuff.  The oft injured middle of the rotation guy they comped him  to is weak.  Perez has some value.  Not zero and not as a starter, but as a solid backup.  

Regardless of whether we think we can win in 2017, the first thing I am doing this off season is signing Kenley Jansen.  He probably gets an Andrew Miller type deal.  Frankly, I would also be looking to acquire any and all buy low reliever candidates.  

I think Calhoun gets extended so I am keeping him.  

[beatlesrule]

Start the podcast at 8:20.  It's a bunch of nonsense before that. 

 

Having listened to the entire podcast, I first want to say that the guy not hosting didn't really seem that into it and laughed a lot which made me not like him much.  Anyway, I thought their Simmons evaluation was a little undervalued considering he is batting in the .280s and they said he was the same hitter in Atlanta but he's never batted that high so we will see what he ends up hitting. They also were a little misinformed about Cron.  They took the easy route with Skaggs just because of his injury history.

They really value prospects. Like a lot. I found that interesting and strange at the same time.  I thought most of their trade offers were fair but I could tell they didn't really follow the Angels(they talked about Matt Albers for like 5 min before making me think they are White Sox fans).  I won't spoil it but they also don't mention how Moreno doesn't want to do everything they suggested and is not that kind of owner so listening to it kind of made me sick to my stomach knowing that the Angels actually could put together a nice core for Trout.  They didn't even factor in the TJ Amigos coming back and pitching well.  I think some posters here will be very surprised at what they think some of our players can get back in a trade.

[Oz27]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I think it's obvious that was an exercise.  Very interesting though.  I think if you could get what they are talking about for someone like Shoe, he'd have been traded.  

An average system's #6 and #12 for Hector would have been acceptable.  But neither have Meyer's upside.  

I think they undervalued Cron, Skaggs and Perez.   I still don't like the Cron=Trumbo comps.  Cron is a better hitter, he strikes out less and is worse on defense.  Plus he can't play LF.  That said, I don't think he's done improving.  Skaggs has top of the rotation stuff.  The oft injured middle of the rotation guy they comped him  to is weak.  Perez has some value.  Not zero and not as a starter, but as a solid backup.  

Regardless of whether we think we can win in 2017, the first thing I am doing this off season is signing Kenley Jansen.  He probably gets an Andrew Miller type deal.  Frankly, I would also be looking to acquire any and all buy low reliever candidates.  

I think Calhoun gets extended so I am keeping him.  

Perez's value is pretty damn low. C.J. Cron is projected to finish this year as a 1.2 WAR player, is about to turn 27 and can only play one position (poorly) so his value is minimal too. Skaggs is impossible to judge because he's just back from surgery, we will know much more in a couple of months.

As for Jansen, I guess it depends on if he gets a qualifying offer. I would assume he will and the makes me pretty reluctant. Plus, given the success of the Yankees in getting so much talent for Chapman and Miller it would surprise me if that leads to a super inflated market for relief pitchers. I'm not sure that's a bubble I want to be buying into with a $50 million + contract.

[beatlesrule]

@Dochalo, Jansen will definitely be getting a qualifying offer and you'll have to outbid the Dodgers.  Considering how Arte doesn't want to spend the big bucks, I'd put our chances at getting him as slim to none.  Plus, this ORG is probably hoping Bedrock is the closer which makes Jansen not an option.

[Oz27]

2 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Start the podcast at 8:20.  It's a bunch of nonsense before that. 

 

Having listened to the entire podcast, I first want to say that the guy not hosting didn't really seem that into it and laughed a lot which made me not like him much.  Anyway, I thought their Simmons evaluation was a little undervalued considering he is batting in the .280s and they said he was the same hitter in Atlanta but he's never batted that high so we will see what he ends up hitting. They also were a little misinformed about Cron.

They really value prospects. Like a lot. I found that interesting and strange at the same time.  I thought most of their trade offers were fair but I could tell they didn't really follow the Angels(they talked about Matt Albers for like 5 min before making me think they are White Sox fans).  I won't spoil it but they also don't mention how Moreno doesn't want to do everything they suggested and is not that kind of owner so listening to it kind of made me sick to my stomach knowing that the Angels actually could put together a nice core for Trout.  They didn't even factor in the TJ Amigos coming back and pitching well.  I think some posters here will be very surprised at what they think some of our players can get back in a trade.

The Matt Albers thing is a regular discussion point on the show. It has nothing to do with the White Sox. As for Simmons, he is really the same offensive player he was in Atlanta. He's at 86 wRC+ this year, coming off years of 82, 72 and 91 in his last three seasons in Atlanta.

[Oz27]

20 minutes ago, Diaz15 said:

Effectively Wild is one of my favorite podcast and this episode was pretty good. Ben and Sam are rad

It's by far the best baseball podcast out there, I love it. They're brilliant. Good to know there's another listener here!

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

@Dochalo, Jansen will definitely be getting a qualifying offer and you'll have to outbid the Dodgers.  Considering how Arte doesn't want to spend the big bucks, I'd put our chances at getting him as slim to none.  Plus, this ORG is probably hoping Bedrock is the closer which makes Jansen not an option.

I know our chances are slim, but I am still making a run at him.  I doubt it matters as I think the dogs will extend him soon.  

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Perez's value is pretty damn low. C.J. Cron is projected to finish this year as a 1.2 WAR player, is about to turn 27 and can only play one position (poorly) so his value is minimal too. Skaggs is impossible to judge because he's just back from surgery, we will know much more in a couple of months.

As for Jansen, I guess it depends on if he gets a qualifying offer. I would assume he will and the makes me pretty reluctant. Plus, given the success of the Yankees in getting so much talent for Chapman and Miller it would surprise me if that leads to a super inflated market for relief pitchers. I'm not sure that's a bubble I want to be buying into with a $50 million + contract.

I was thinking about that as well.  But the high trade value are really only for the truly elite relievers.  

[Oz27]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I was thinking about that as well.  But the high trade value are really only for the truly elite relievers.  

Jansen is a truly elite reliever isn't he? He's pretty damn good.

What do you think he gets as a free agent? 5/60 is a real possibility I think. As for Chapman...Lord, who knows how high that gets.

[beatlesrule]

I wonder if they will do another podcast to wrap up the deadline and what they think of what the Angels did and didn't do.

[70runner]

Interesting hypothetical.  Enjoyed the giggling spike when, after summarizing the prospect math, oops, remembered Pujols @29M in 2020.