Five Bold Predictions

[Second Base]

http://monkeywithahalo.com/2016-articles/angels-2016-predictions-pujols-calhoun.html

 

 

Once again, my favorite article to write every single year.  I've had some success in the past, but last year was pretty bad.  We'll see if I can get back to the 2-3 out of 5 range on these bold predictions. 

[Angelsjunky]

A good read as always, Scotty. Before commenting on your new predictions, I must take you up on your assertion that you "nailed it" with your prediction of Freese having the second best season of his career. Clearly 2012 was his career year, but he played better in 2011 than in 2015, just in fewer games (97 to 121). But he had a 2.3 fWAR, hit .297/.350/.441, vs 2.2 and .257/.323/.420 last year. So I'd give you half credit, so 0.5 for 5, or a .100 BA vs. .200 .

 

Anyhow, as for your new ones.

 

1. I agree with you - Kole will put together his 2013-14 performance level with 2015 playing time.

 

2. Borderline. I think top 10, but maybe not top 5.

 

3. Maybe. I still feel burned by the fact that his disappointing 2012 is now looking like his best year as an Angel. But what you're saying is what we've been saying every year: 2012 was an adjustment year, 2013 plantar fasciitis, 2014, lingering injury, 2015, more of the same. At this point--and at his age--I just don't see how we can expect anything different than what we've already seen. But of course you're just saying he'll be like 2012, which isn't such a stretch (and not very bold).

 

4. Interesting. You're kind of saying a poor man's Billy Butler, but without the walks. As a DH and/or poor first baseman he'll never reach 3 WAR with that kind of performance.

 

5. I like this one and will buy it, or at least want to buy it.

[Second Base]

A good read as always, Scotty. Before commenting on your new predictions, I must take you up on your assertion that you "nailed it" with your prediction of Freese having the second best season of his career. Clearly 2012 was his career year, but he played better in 2011 than in 2015, just in fewer games (97 to 121). But he had a 2.3 fWAR, hit .297/.350/.441, vs 2.2 and .257/.323/.420 last year. So I'd give you half credit, so 0.5 for 5, or a .100 BA vs. .200 .

 

Anyhow, as for your new ones.

 

1. I agree with you - Kole will put together his 2013-14 performance level with 2015 playing time.

 

2. Borderline. I think top 10, but maybe not top 5.

 

3. Maybe. I still feel burned by the fact that his disappointing 2012 is now looking like his best year as an Angel. But what you're saying is what we've been saying every year: 2012 was an adjustment year, 2013 plantar fasciitis, 2014, lingering injury, 2015, more of the same. At this point--and at his age--I just don't see how we can expect anything different than what we've already seen. But of course you're just saying he'll be like 2012, which isn't such a stretch (and not very bold).

 

4. Interesting. You're kind of saying a poor man's Billy Butler, but without the walks. As a DH and/or poor first baseman he'll never reach 3 WAR with that kind of performance.

 

5. I like this one and will buy it, or at least want to buy it.

 

Thanks AJ.

 

I'll keep the faith on Albert, but you're absolutely right, lower leg injuries have become the norm with him, and not some kind of outlier or one year thing.  I suppose what I'm predicting then is that 2016 won't be as bad as 2015 was and the bold prediction is that he'l be healthier in there lower half for the first time in years. 

 

I'm saying that CJ has improved enough defensively to add a little to his overall value.  And the amount of extra base hits and RBI situations he'll find himself in, 2 or 3 wins above replacement is well within reach.  As for Billy Butler, a few years ago this comp would've seemed fair but I have no idea what to expect of Billy anymore. 

 

As for the bullpen, gotta stay bold.  I can't just say they'll be good.  But Morin, Rasmus, Bedrock, Mahle, Guerra and Albuquerque all pitching up to their abilities could result in a ridiculously good bullpen built at a very low cost. 

[halosfan1970]

I got a blue screen crash and I had to reboot my system twice after visiting this site.

[Blarg]

Ok, here are my five bold predictions about Scotty's article.

 

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

 

I'm contemplating waiting until the end of the season to read his article to see if I'm right.

 

 

 

 

Naw, I'm right.

 

[Wallerrrr]

Good read dude...

[Blarg]

Thanks.

[Wallerrrr]

clever

[laagamer]

One part that stood out to me was "In fact he was last in the league in RBBIP" when discussing Albert.

I don't think he'll even sniff .280

Agree with the Richards prediction though.

[Angel Oracle]

Pujols basically became a solo HR specialist in 2015, granted part of that was lack of protection behind him and not many runners outside of Trout on base for him.

 

I hope that Escobar and Nava can get on base often enough, and Calhoun can be enough of a threat in the 5 spot and Cron in the 6 spot.

Edited April 1, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[LAAFANofLA]

I'm on the fence about Pujols, but agree with everything else. Good read.

[halosfan1970]

http://monkeywithahalo.com/2016-articles/angels-2016-predictions-pujols-calhoun.html

 

 

Once again, my favorite article to write every single year.  I've had some success in the past, but last year was pretty bad.  We'll see if I can get back to the 2-3 out of 5 range on these bold predictions. 

 

No bold optimism for Kyle Kubitza in 2016?

[Second Base]

No bold optimism for Kyle Kubitza in 2016?

 

Hard to have it.  The kid is super talented and I'll be rooting for him, but having Marte, Cowart, Pennington and Escobar ahead of him on the 3B depth chart, Gia, Pennington, Navarro and Yarbrough ahead of him at 2B, and Hinshaw, Ortega, Choi, Gentry and Nava ahead of him in LF makes one thing abundantly clear.....Kyle Kubitza is VERY deeply buried on this depth chart.

 

Now I'm sure if he plays like he's capable of he'll leap-frog a few names at each position but he still doesn't have a clear path to the majors.  Right now, I think the Angels are going to keep him in AAA to inflate his numbers and try selling high on him at the deadline. 

[beatlesrule]

April fools?

[totdprods]

Kubitza isn't far from being the next Grant Green.

[Troll Daddy]

HR's are so underrated around here ... head scratcher.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

I got a blue screen crash and I had to reboot my system twice after visiting this site.

 

Let me guess: Windows 10 installation?

[70runner]

Richards: with some offspeed improvement, will regain #1 form and pitch during ASB

 

Pujols:  another year older, slower (if that's possible); if he doesn't hit with RISP Trout will lead the world in walks;  lucky to hit .250

 

Street: has reached his twilight, Angels will be looking for another closer before the ASB

 

Calhoun: will become a line drive prodigy, return to 2nd in order to set stage for the natural

 

Scioscia: tip the cap, turn the page ad nauseam all the way to 3rd place in division

[Docwaukee]

fun stuff scotty

 

Agree on Calhoun

Agree on Richards

Not only do I agree on Pujols, but I think he'll have his best season as a halo and a big part of it is gonna be Calhoun having a big year behind him and because of Cron.  Not because of lineup protection but because pujols will relax and not be burdened with thinking he has to do all the run producing after Trout.

Disagree on Cron.  He's gonna have a 25hr season and hit for a higher than expected average.  

Disagree on the pen.  I am hoping they can be average but I have my doubts.  

 

My bold 5:

 

1. I am already on record as predicting we will have a top 5 offense so I will stick with that as one.  

 

2. Hector will have a sub 3.5 era and turn a corner as a starter.  He'll have right around 200ip

 

3. Heaney will be below average.  Not horrible, but not the guy we hope he could be or will be in a couple of years. 

 

4. Simmons will hit .275 and be much better with the bat than expected.  He will have 10+ hrs and an ops above .720.  He season at the plate will be a compilation of the best he's done in each of his three years.

 

5. Skaggs will be better this year than Heaney was last year.  

[Lou]

Kubitza isn't far from being the next Grant Green.

a crappy major leaguer?

[Docwaukee]

a crappy major leaguer in the minors?

ftfy

[Lou]

lol

[NrM]

No clue why you guys continue to think 36 year old Albert Pujols is going to turn things around. He hit .231/.288/.419 .707 OPS with a .2 WAR in the second half. 

 

Pujols had a 3.6 WAR in 2012.

Since 2010 there have been a total of 3 players 36 years or older to post a better WAR.

Ichirio, Hunter and Beltre. What do they have in common? defensive value and bodies that age well.

Edited April 2, 2016 by Mr. Meeseeks

[Angel Oracle]

Big Poopy's success at ages 36-39 gives me a little hope anyway that Pujols can hit like that for at least the next 2 years with something resembling real protection behind him.

Big Poopy wasn't exactly a sprinter, granted there was the alleged help that he gave himself.

Edited April 2, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

Thanks AJ.

 

I'll keep the faith on Albert, but you're absolutely right, lower leg injuries have become the norm with him, and not some kind of outlier or one year thing.  I suppose what I'm predicting then is that 2016 won't be as bad as 2015 was and the bold prediction is that he'l be healthier in there lower half for the first time in years. 

 

I'm saying that CJ has improved enough defensively to add a little to his overall value.  And the amount of extra base hits and RBI situations he'll find himself in, 2 or 3 wins above replacement is well within reach.  As for Billy Butler, a few years ago this comp would've seemed fair but I have no idea what to expect of Billy anymore. 

 

As for the bullpen, gotta stay bold.  I can't just say they'll be good.  But Morin, Rasmus, Bedrock, Mahle, Guerra and Albuquerque all pitching up to their abilities could result in a ridiculously good bullpen built at a very low cost. 

 

I hear you. If I squint and look at just the right angle, I can see Albert having a year where he is healhy(ish), keeps his power from 2015, and hits for a higher average - something like .270/.330/.550 with 40 HR. But a lot has to go right, the stars have to align just perfectly. As Meeseeks said above, he was awful in the second half.

 

HR's are so underrated around here ... head scratcher.

 

Not really. It is just that HR are folded into other, more inclusive stats - like OPS+, wRC+, and of course plain old slugging percentage. "40 HR" is nice, but what else is going on?

 

By the way, Albert's SLG last year, .480, was the second lowest of every 40+ HR season in major league history - that's 320 seasons. Only Adam Dunn in 2012 was lower (41 HR, .468 SLG).

 

In fact, there's only a handful of players who have managed to hit even 38+ HR and slug lower than .500.