2014, 2015, 2016

[Docwaukee]

Here is a tale of 3 stories by the numbers (and some editorial of course)

 

WAR caveat - I'm using WAR to compare the different seasons.  Why?  Because it's reasonable and easy.  I get it, it's not perfect, but it's really the best thing we have.  I'll comment specifically where I think it doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Playoffs caveat - I am not going to speculate how our 2016 team as constructed would perform in the playoffs.  It's a fools errand because of small sample.  Let's just see if we can get there. 

 

The first story is about 2014.  We won 98 games and most players either met or exceeded expectations.  It was a good year...until we got bounced is short order.  Wow.  That was a pretty short story.

 

The second story is about 2015.  We won 85 games and by all accounts, most players either met or were below expectations.  We probably had more wins than would have been expected relative to the individual performances.  But WAR will account for that (see, it's good for some stuff).  It's important because we probably have a bit more ground to make up than we thought.  We made a run at the division and wild card but fell just short and it sucked.  It was one of the most frustrating seasons I can remember.  So that was a pretty short story as well.  

 

More importantly, these seasons are good examples of the significant variability that can occur from year to year and why we play the games.  Especially considering the lack of roster turn over the last few years.   The comparison is also important for trying to figure out what might be reasonable in terms of expectations for 2016.  Again, considering that there isn't likely to be a ton of roster turnover.  

 

The third story will be in multiple parts.  It's about 2016 and it's mostly a fairy tail.  

 

Lets start with pitching. 

 

2014 vs. 2015

Starting Pitching

Overall 

11.6 vs. 8.4 WAR

 

Key players

Richards 4.3 vs. 2.5

Shoemaker 2.6 vs. 0.7

Weaver 1.5 vs. 0.6

Skaggs 1.5 vs. DNP

Heaney DNP vs. 1.6

Wilson 0.6 vs. 1.4

Santiago 0.5 vs. 0.6

 

So the first part of the 3rd story is about how, in 2016, to make up the difference in starting pitching between 2014 and 2015.

The first thing that has to happen in 2016 is that Richards has to pitch like an ace.  I was gonna speculate that he needs to split the difference between the last two years, but I have higher hopes for him than that.  So I am gonna give Richards the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be the 2014 guy.  I know it's a stretch, but some of the players are gonna perform at level better than expected right?  

 

The next question is can Shoe repeat his 2014?  The answer is frankly no.  But I think Andrew Heaney can replicate that.  

 

Then you have a bunch of guys to mix and match who will replicate the rest.  In fact, I would like to think that the rest of the guys could actually do better.  But for the sake of argument, we will call them the same and assume that if they did better it would make up for Richards not doing as well as I predicted above.  

 

So there it is.  We have a staff that will be as good as one that helped get us to 98 wins.  The good news is that its entirely feasible they do that.  The bad news is that in doing so they have gone from not all that great to just ok.    

 

2014 vs 2015

Bullpen 

Overall

3.6 vs. 2.8

 

Key Players

Everyone was just a little worse or about the same in 2015 than they were in 2014.

 

So this is where I think WAR falls apart.  I don't like the chaining phenomena that the WAR calc uses.  It basically means that you only get half credit for leverage because if the closer goes down the then next guy added goes to the back of the pen.  That's a very weak generalization in my opinion.  It also doesn't give any credit for the fact that closer work without a net.  I am not going to bore people with the math, but suffice to say that I think that middle relievers are worth about 30-40% more than WAR gives them credit for and closers close to 50%.  

 

The better the team is, the more the bullpen matters.  From a sheer math standpoint, a pen with pitch about 500 innings and a starters will give you about 1000 ip at most.  But the average pen gives you 3 WAR and the average SP collective gives you 12 WAR.  Good teams pitch more often in high leverage.  And leverage is calculated regardless of the grand scheme.   The leverage in the start of the top of the 8th where the home team is down by a run is 1.0.  The leverage in the start of the bottom of the 8th where the home team is up by 1 is 0.6.  The leverage bottom of the 3rd when the score is tied with 0 outs is 1.0.  The leverage in any situation next year when the phils play the rockies will be the same as those situations when the cubs play the cards.  Regardless if it's the first game of the year of the last.  My point is that not all leverage is created equal even though that is what the charts would have you believe.  

 

So here is my real issue.  The collective was less than a win different.  But the pen took off in 2014 after the ASB.  And when you look at the actual events, the 2014 had a WPA of 6.2 and the 2015 team a WPA of 3.1.  That seems closer to the perceived difference.  The problem is trying to predict where we will be for 2016.  Personally, I have no idea.  What we have now seems light, and I am a big fan of lock down bullpens so I feel like there is a huge difference between the end of the 2014 season's pen and new. In fact, I think we are currently worse than last year.  If we go by WPA, I think we are 3-4 wins worse.  A big time deficiency and where I think we fall way short.  

 

But in terms of WAR, I think we are at around 1.0 or a net negative of 2.5 from 2014.  

 

Offense/Defense

2014 vs 2015

30.5 vs. 18.3

 

That is a huge gap to make up.  Where did things go wrong?

 

Catcher

3.5 vs. 1.8

 

Key Players

Iannetta 3.1 vs. 0.6

Perez  DNP vs. 1.2

 

Over a full season, Perez is very good getting most of his value defensively.  Something more likely for him to reproduce.  So I'll give the combo of him and soto a 3.0.  Or a net negative of 0.5

 

1b

1.2 v.s 1.7

 

Key players

Albert 1.4 vs. 1.7

 

Albert's got this.  He's hurt, but I think that's reproducible regardless.  

 

2b

4.5 vs. 0.3

 

Key players

Kendrick 4.5 vs. DNP

Giavotella DNP vs. 1.0

 

A huge gap.  Even if Giavotella progresses, he gives us 2.0 WAR.  If we shift Escobar to 2b, he gives us 2.5 at best.  This one still needs work or we are looking at 2.0-2.5 deficit.  Yet again.  

 

SS

4.5 vs. 0.7

 

Key players

Aybar 4.2 vs. 0.9

 

Does Simmons make up the difference?  I think he can and I gonna give him credit as such.  

 

3b

1.7 vs. 2.3

 

Key Players 

Freese 2.0 vs. 2.3

 

I am gonna give Escobar the benefit of the doubt here and call it a wash relative to Freese.  It could be a tough worse, but I am feeling optimistic

 

RF

5.5 vs. 4.0

 

Key Players

Calhoun 3.8 vs. 3.7.

 

I love the Red Barron. He's fun to watch.  But I can't say I'm not a little concerned about his .308 obp from 2015.  But I still think he can improve. As an aside, Collin Cowgill gave us 1.3 WAR in 140 at bats in 2014.  Not likely to be replicated and not likely to be made up by an potential improvement by Kole.  

 

I am gonna call this a deficit of -1.0

 

CF

7.8 vs. 8.9

 

Key Players.  

Trout 8.9 vs. 7.7

 

So the real question is whether Trout has his typical season or his typical season.  He'll probably have his typical season.  We'll call it +1 from 2014. 

 

LF

0.9 vs. -1.0

 

Key players

Joyce DNP vs. -0.7

Hamilton 0.8 vs. DNP

 

Not a lot to make up, but certainly a lot of room for improvement. But I think it's reasonable to assume the platoon of Gentry and Nava can give us 1.0 WAR.  So even from 2014

 

DH

0.9 vs. -0,2

 

Key Players

CJ Cron 0.0 vs. 0.3

Pujols 1.4 vs.  0.3

 

I think Cron progresses enough to make up the small difference.  Plus, Pujols likely sees a fair amount of time here

 

Bench

 

The Bench has been addressed and is improved from last year.  Probably to the point that is makes up for the fact that the 2014 bench was pretty good.

 

Overall

SP even

BP -2

Offense/Defense -1

 

So -5 overall from 2014 with significant improvement from 2015 at SS and SP, and mild improvement at LF, C but concern for the pen.  The biggest room for potential improvement remains LF and 2b.  The key component at this point is pitching.  Will we get 2014 or 2015 pitching?  But the offense/defense was so poor in a couple of areas that minor improvements have them better than last season yet not quite back to 2014.  So right now I think we are closer to 88 wins than the 84 I thought we were.  Of course guys have to stay healthy, and the above is mildly optimistic, but it's not as bad as I thought it would be.  I still don't think it gets us the division, but there is a little holiday optimism for everyone.  

Edited December 19, 2015 by Dochalo

[tennischmp]

If you are comparing it all to 2014, and give the platoon a 1 WAR, then there is no improvement in LF, yet you have it a +2

[QuinlansMinion]

Its simple.  Get some OBP guys.  No OBP, no rings.

[Angel Oracle]

The Escobar trade did begin to address OBP, but also essentially gutted the bullpen beyond Smith and Street.

If they don't address that, there will be no September contention for post-season play.

[arch stanton]

I gotta say I think they sold high on Gott. I'd love to see some power BP guys but I'm not broken up about that particular loss.

[Hollyw00d]

You will be when we're relying on salad to hold leads

[wopphil]

I think we may see some big improvement from Cron (more like the guy of the last three months of the season, not the first three), Simmons over Aybar, and the new catching duo. We are a good left fielder away from having a competitive lineup.

But the bullpen looks like a disaster, and the rotation is comprised of a number 2/3 starter (Richards) and seven back of the rotation guys.

If I were running the team, I'd do my best to sign a legit rotation piece and then trade Santiago for cheap relief help and CJ for salary relief. That alone could result in a payroll wash.

Then I'd sign a left fielder, luxury tax be damned.

Edited December 19, 2015 by wopphil

[Docwaukee]

If you are comparing it all to 2014, and give the platoon a 1 WAR, then there is no improvement in LF, yet you have it a +2

yep.  my bad

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think this is a tad optimistic but here is a little more optimism that I'm sure Arte and Eppler are banking on.

 

Difference between Actual Wins and Runs based Pythagorean Wins has a standard deviation of +/- 7 wins.

Difference between Actual Runs Scored / Allowed and Component (hits, walks, etc) Runs Score / Allowed has a standard deviation of +/- 7 wins.

 

Obviously we did really well in the first category last year but this just proves that there is a ton of variance in the game.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I quit reading after % vs % vs % vs % vs % = %

[AngelsLakersFan]

I quit reading after % vs % vs % vs % vs % = %

 

Hey at least you bumped it, so you still contributed. lol

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Hey at least you bumped it, so you still contributed. lol

 

 

You cannot pee in a coffee pot and get Tasters Choice!~

[ELEVEN]

Now ya tell me!