How to Improve the Offense

[Docwaukee]

So I used a lineup optimizer to look at how to improve our run production.  The data used is from 1959-2004.   A nice broad sample for determining how many runs we should score.  I plugged in last years number inclusive of our bench and then made some adjustment relative to who we have and who we might get.  It's base off OBP and SLG only.  There is no speed accounted for.  Bear in mind that the team produced 661 runs

 

RF, CF, 1b, 3b, DH, LF, SS, C, 2b from last year produced about 4.12 runs/gm or 667 runs.  Our most common lineup.  Pretty damn close to what we actually did.  

Our best lineup with those numbers would produce 4.2 rpg.  or 680 runs

 

As a point of reference, our 2014 lineup produced 773 runs.  The optimizer with our most common lineup of RF, CF, 1b, LF, 2b, SS, 3b, C, DH produced 4.49 runs per game or 727 runs.  The order for this one isn't perfect.  and the optimum is around 4.6 rpg.  or around 745.  So we got a little lucky in 2014.  

 

some rules/assumptions:

 

For the purpose of this exercise, lets assume similar production from RF, CF, 1b

With our improved bench, I am gonna assume only slightly lesser numbers at any given position relative to the player that will most commonly play there

 

ex.  Cron produced .300 obp and .439 slg.  I think our improved depth will make those numbers consistent. So DH will give us something similar to Cron's overall numbers from last year.  Which would represent an improvement.  But I think that's a fair assumption even if it's a small number

 

I think we can assume Perez' number from last year as a baseline.  I don't think Soto's presence will hurt the offense on a relative basis.  .300/.346

 

Escobar at 3b should give us around .330/.365.  His occasional replace might bring that down to .325/.360

 

Simmons should give us about .300/.360.  It could be better.  There should be much drop offensively by his replacements

 

So let's start with worst case where gia is our starting 2bman (.310/.365) and gentry/murphy platoon in LF. (.320/.385)

 

So 3b, RF, CF, 1b, DH, LF, C, SS, 2b with Gia and a LF platoon gives us about  4.46 runs per game.  or 723 total runs scored.  

 

So what happens if we add Upton?  It adds up to about 739 runs.  As expected, that about 2 wins better than a 1-2 WAR platoon in LF

 

What about Upton and Murphy?  Lets assume Murphy would bat 2nd and Calhoun 6th.  That would give us around 760 runs.  Again, another two wins above what we currently have.  

 

The point is that we are likely to improve almost regardless of who we put in LF.  But Upton would be nice.  

[Second Base]

I think the offense was going to improve regardless.  I mean first off, Calhoun was quietly BAD last year at reaching base.  That's going to improve, or else he'll be moved to the middle or bottom of the order.  Cron's a year older and considerably more polished this time around, which should help.  As weird as it is to say, there's a good chance Trout's going to be even better next year.  I honestly expect Giavotella o regress or just be replaced.  It was a fun one year thing, but I don't think that needs to happen again.

 

Now for the newest additions. 

 

Simmons will likely be as good as Aybar was, but since he's entering his prime, there's the off-chance he'll actually improve.

 

Soto will be better than Iannetta by a fair amount. 

 

I don't think Escobar will necessarily be better than Freese, as much as he will fit this lineup better than Freese did, which makes the team better.  We need a leadoff hitter and Escobar's the man to do it. 

 

I honestly believe Choi is going to grow into a good major league hitter with the Angels and am really excited to have him.

 

It really doesn't matter who they get to play LF, whoever it is, is going to be better than Joyce.  Any random player in AA would've been better than Joyce. 

 

I think without making another move, with the other AL West teams improving as well, we're probably an 82 win team as is.  I think if we brought in Upton and Howie, we'd be closer to a 90 win team. 

[arch stanton]

For most of last season there were black holes in LF,DH, and C. Removing the near automatic outs is a huge step forward. Get some people on base and it's a whole different world.

[Chuck]

Scotty, 

 

I too am intrigued with Choi. His minor league career slash line is pretty damn sexy and he's a lefthanded bat. 

 

I'd be down with a platoon with Cron, or if Choi proves the DH/1B job is his in ST, perhaps trade Cron and Giavotella for a better 2B with more pop or someone that can leadoff, pushing Escobar down one to the 2-spot. 

[jsnpritchett]

Choi is Efren Navarro with a few more walks. Funny how people now seem to think he's any kind of solution to anything.

[Angel Oracle]

Pujols better finally be healthy for a change.

His time to contribute is running down as he hits age 36 in 2016.

[arch stanton]

Pujols hasn't been a stud but he's not the problem, either.

[nikkachez]

Inject as much OBP as possible. I'd think Fowler, Span, Gordon, and Upton are the top choices for them. But they need 2-3 really good bats in my opinion.

[Angel Oracle]

Pujols hasn't been a stud but he's not the problem, either.

His RISP BA was an issue in 2015.

[Angelsjunky]

You had me at "I used a lineup optimizer."

Edited December 12, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[arch stanton]

His RISP BA was an issue in 2015.

But he was still the second best hitter last year. Not the problem when 3 positions were black holes most of the year.

[Troll Daddy]

Pujols hasn't been a stud but he's not the problem, either.

I think Pujols decline is in remission/plateau for the next few years. I wouldn't be surprised if he AVE/OBP increases some.

The same happened to David Ortiz ... who never hit like Pujols in his prime. It's hard to believe that 'big papi' is a better hitter post 35 years old.

[arch stanton]

Whether he improves or not he still wasn't the problem with the offense last year.

[Ohtaniland]

Pujols hasn't been a stud but he's not the problem, either.

I understand your position on that but he creates issues beyond his 40hrs. He hurts Trout by being attached to the hip in every lineup card because he can no longer hit with RISP. He also directly hurts the budget. But Eppler can explain that.

[arch stanton]

I understand your position on that but he creates issues beyond his 40hrs. He hurts Trout by being attached to the hip in every lineup card because he can no longer hit with RISP. He also directly hurts the budget. But Eppler can explain that.

All well and good but he still wasn't the problem with the offense last year.

[Stradling]

He doesn't hurt Trout because he bats next to him. He hurts Trouts runs scored but that doesn't hurt Trout. Trout stopped running but I believe that's more of a decision to keep his legs fresh. If Trout wasn't stealing based on Albert then why didn't Trout then steal when Albert popped out or struck out? I know you'll make an argument that Trout's numbers will hurt batting in front of Albert and because of that it increases his chances of leaving in FIVE years, I'll worry about that in four years.

[Angelsjunky]

Nice write-up, Doc. It confirms what many of us believed: that the Angels improve just by throwing mediocre players into LF instead of Joyce for half the year.

 

Here's a thought: Choi has actually played some LF. So it could be that Eppler is also considering him as a back-up option there.

[jsnpritchett]

Seriously, what is going on with this Choi love? Had any of you even heard of him before the Rule 5 draft?

[Angel Oracle]

Seriously, what is going on with this Choi love? Had any of you even heard of him before the Rule 5 draft?

+1

Same with Guerra

[totdprods]

+1

Same with Guerra

I've known of Choi for a while. I think he had a big spring a couple years back, I think even one game against the Angels, and Mariners were pretty jazzed about him. Big tall lefty bat with a .400 career OBP. Then he got popped with a PED suspension and buried under Jack Z's 1B depth chart.

I don't think he's going to be a star, but at 24 with as good an eye he has and a body that projects well for increasing power, he could e a great Navarro-type at a minimum, and maybe a Casey Korchman (minus the glove) type bench bat/PH/DH platoon ceiling. And he cost nothing.

[jsnpritchett]

I've known of Choi for a while. I think he had a big spring a couple years back, I think even one game against the Angels, and Mariners were pretty jazzed about him. Big tall lefty bat with a .400 career OBP. Then he got popped with a PED suspension and buried under Jack Z's 1B depth chart.

I don't think he's going to be a star, but at 24 with as good an eye he has and a body that projects well for increasing power, he could e a great Navarro-type at a minimum, and maybe a Casey Korchman (minus the glove) type bench bat/PH/DH platoon ceiling. And he cost nothing.

Except a roster spot, and we already have Navarro.

[totdprods]

Choi could be the perfect guy to PH for Cron in a tie game 7th inning with a tough righty on the mound who draws a walk (great strikeout rate in minors) who Gentry can PR run for and steal second. We didn't have that option last year, or even last few years.

[totdprods]

Except a roster spot, and we already have Navarro.

Navarro can remain in the minors as depth. Choi has more upside. What's wrong with having two of the same player? It's not like he cost us a prospect or millions of dollars.

If he isn't cutting it, he's waived.

[Second Base]

Seriously, what is going on with this Choi love? Had any of you even heard of him before the Rule 5 draft?

Yeah actually, I was talking to an M's fan a year or two ago that was pissed he popped positive and even more upset they just let him go.

His numbers indicate that yes, he's Efren Navarro with more walks. But when you watch him swing, hit line drives and really get into one, you see there's the possibility for more. So far the story is he hits the ball on the ground more frequently than most, and has a high line drive rate. Also despite accumulating so many BB throughout the season, or perhaps as a direct result, he hits from behind in the count rather frequently. This causes him to seek more contact and less power. Admittedly, this last year in AAA he was rusty, abd God year before that just wasn't up to his standards, though still quite good.

It is believed that with an adjustment in his approach and a team willing to give him the opportunity, Choi can turn into a very good hitter. He's only 24, I see little reason to believe that with continual growth every year, that by the time he's reached his physical prime, he might turn into a top or middle of the lineup weapon for the Angels. Also of note, the Mariners giving up on him was a wake up call. I'm told his training regimen has increased ten-full and he's looking less soft, more strong than he ever has as a professional.

So yeah, I'm intrigued by this guy because I think at worst, the Angels found themselves a great option to come off the bench and work a walk or get a hit. At best, we just hit the jackpot, and risk regardless is minimal.

[Mauch Won]

If the Angels go the expensive free agent route, my preference is Alex Gordon.   If they go less expensive free agent, Gerardo Parra.   More and more though, I really would like to see Eppler trade for a player like Corey Dickerson and add to a young core.  Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano is a pretty good foundation.  Dickerson would fit right in.