Get ready for Dipoto to overpay on a starting pitcher (or two)

[Angelsjunky]

Think about it: chances are he won't be able to pull off the trade he needs to strengthen the rotation or, at best, he'll bring in a #3-4 type, but not the #2-3 type that is needed to slot behind Weaver and Wilson.

 

Masahiro Tanaka is probably the most attractive option, especially because he's got the most upside (a #2 starter), but also because he won't cost a draft pick - unlike Garza, Nolasco, Kuroda, and I think Arroyo and Colon, but am not sure.

 

Matt Garza is pretty much the definition of a #3 starter, consistently with an ERA in the high 3.00s, ranging from 3.32 to 3.91 in each of the last six years, although his second best is 3.69 so he should be expected to have an ERA around 3.60-3.90. He's missed time due to injury in each of the last two years, which warrants some concern.

 

For some reason I think of Ismael Valdes when I look at Ricky Nolasco. I'm not sure why. Nolasco is sort of a poor man's Javier Vazquez and, like Vazquez, is a bit of a sabermetric darling because he has good peripherals. His FIP is almost always better than his ERA, which leads one to believe that he's better than his ERA allows, but the simple fact is that Nolasco's ERA never catches up, so it may just be that - like Vazquez - he has nice peripherals but is what he is. That said, his ERA did almost catch up last year, down to 3.70 (with a 3.34 FIP). With Nolasco you're hoping for #3 performance but should expect #4.

 

Ubaldo Jimenez might be better than Garza or Nolasco, but is a bit risky. Like those two he refused a qualifying offer so would cost a draft pick.

 

I kind of group Hiroki Kuroda, Bronson Arroyo, and Bartolo Colon together - all in their late 30s, but all still pretty damn good. I vaguely remember Kuroda saying that he's going to play for the Yankees or go back to Japan, but that could have changed. Arroyo is a bit of a poor man's Andy Pettitte, who was in turn a bit of a poor man's Tom Glavine - pitchers that don't blow you away, but get the job done. As for Colon, I don't know what to say. Each of his last three years was better than the last in terms of ERA, and he had his best year in 2013 (18 wins, 2.65 ERA) since his Cy Young 2005 with the Angels. Still, he's going to be 41 next year...41. If he'd take a year he's worth a flyer, but the thing is there are many teams who would love to give old Bart a year, so someone will likely give him two. Still, he didn't get a qualifying offer so won't cost a draft pick.

 

There are a ton of other options - from Scott Kazmir to Shaun Marcum to Ervin Santana - although none are exactly exciting.

 

What will Jerry do? What should he do? What do you think?

 

I think he's going to try to trade Kendrick, Trumbo, or Aybar - probably in that order - for a starter. Miguel Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill have come up as possibilities, although neither are exactly the #2 starter the Angels need.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Dipoto goes all in on Tanaka. Its a big risk, but he already knows he's on a short leash. I suppose the question is whether Arte would front the money and I'm guessing he will, especially considering the posting fee doesn't count towards the luxury tax.

 

I do think we'll probably see a trade (probably Kendrick), and then one of the names above. Should be interesting.

[Blarg]

Every player is over paid. It is only relevant if they perform like Blanton or Wilson if they are worth it.

[tdawg87]

Garza won't cost a pick. I think the Angels get him or Tanaka. If they get neither they are probably f'd.

[YouthofToday]

Dipoto will sign Kuroda to a one year deal and Arte will rejoice he doesn't have to spend $$ at the draft.

It's too bad we couldn't have sucked enough to land a top 10, protected pick.

[wopphil]

I, as well, think we land Garza.  Something in the neighborhood of 5/80. 

[Chuck]

Like Blarg said, everyone is overpaying. Like others have also said, Blanton's overpay looks lite now in comparison and there's a chance he could get dealt (I pray).

[Blarg]

Who in the hell is this Blarg guy?

[KingJustinian]

I, as well, think we land Garza. Something in the neighborhood of 5/80.

Garza will probably be overpaid, but at this point that might be a good route to go so that we don't lose a draft pick. Then trade Howie for a #4 and maybe clear some payroll.

1. Weaver

2. Wilson

3. Garza

4. Howie trade

5. Richards

Plenty of cheap veterans to sign for depth

[seenoevil]

You guys act like it's your money .. As long as he brings in some pitchers and we get back in the playoffs

[HaloCory22]

I would be thrilled with Kuroda and Tanaka.

[Angel Oracle]

I'd like to keep the lineup intact, hope Garza will settle for 5 years/$75 million, hope Williams can pitch like he did outside of July, and hope Richards can become a solid #4 starter.

Three hopes are a lot to rely on, though.

I just don't see the Halos paying a posting fee plus salary of $125 million over 5 years for Tanaka.

Arte seems to be a guy who vastly prefers to pay established MLB players, even if on downside.

Edited November 25, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[HaloCory22]

I'd like to keep the lineup intact, hope Garza will settle for 5 years/$75 million, hope Williams can pitch like he did outside of July, and hope Richards can become a solid #4 starter.

Three hopes are a lot to rely on, though.

I just don't see the Halos paying a posting fee plus salary of $125 million over 5 years for Tanaka.

Arte seems to be a guy who vastly prefers to pay established MLB players, even if on downside.

The Angels need to stop hoping and get people who actually deliver. I love Jerome Williams, but I'm not willing to go into 2014 hoping that he pitches league average. We need consistency.

[Jim]

I don't know who we might get but I do know who I would like to have out of that bunch. Tanaka and Nolasco would be my first two picks, followed by Garza or Kuroda. Forget the rest.

 

I just seriously have my doubts that Dipoto can pull off a decent trade. Seriously, I hope I'm way off.  

Edited November 25, 2013 by Jim

[Blarg]

The Angels were in on the Darvish and Matsusaka bidding process. He prefers players that can help him win but sometimes gets out bid by teams more desperate.

[DMVol]

....I just seriously have my doubts that Dipoto can pull off a decent trade. Seriously, I hope I'm way off....

His best trade was with us (Haren) when he was the interim GM with the DBacks....Unfortunately, he doesn't have another Reagins to fleece.....

[nando714]

Still hope we have a reunion with Bartolo

[gotbeer]

It's still in the Japanese papers that Kuroda will sign with the Yanks or go back to Japan.  

[Second Base]

I envision Dipoto surprising the world and bringing in Kuroda for 1 year 16 million plus a player option for 2015 at a similar price. Then he'll trade Kendrick plus a prospect for Miguel Gonzalez. Rotation will be Weav, Wilson, Kuroda, Gonzalez and Richards. The Angels would stay under luxury tax and have a heck of rotation.

[gotbeer]

So Scott, what you are saying is Dipoto is stupid enough to give up a draft pick for a one year player?

[Angelsjunky]

Why Kendrick and a prospect for Gonzalez? I'd even argue that it should be Kendrick for Gonzalez and a prospect. Gonzalez is decent, but he was only a 1.7 fWAR pitcher last year.

 

That Trumbo for Corey Kluber trade looks really good right now.

[Second Base]

Also, Kuroda recently went on record to say that's a misconception. He'd seriously consider any offer at this point and hasn't even thought of returning to Japan. He doesn't say it won't happen but it isn't in his line of thinking right now. I've also heard a return to So Cal is a possibility given that his wife and daughters all live here.

When you factor it all in, Kuroda is as likely as the next target and he logically fits the Angels plans because they wouldn't have to offer an obscene amount of years and as AJ pointed out, #2/3 SP aren't available via trade so his acquisition would make it acceptable to land a #3/4 SP for Kendrick, which is much more likely.

[Second Base]

Why Kendrick and a prospect for Gonzalez? I'd even argue that it should be Kendrick for Gonzalez and a prospect. Gonzalez is decent, but he was only a 1.7 fWAR pitcher last year.

That Trumbo for Corey Kluber trade looks really good right now.

The reason being is simple. The Angels aren't bargaining from a point of advantage. They need young controllable pitching and whoever is willing to trade that to them can ask for the moon and stars and get it. The Angels have little choice but to overpay in talent if they want someone that's not making 10+ million.

[ettin]

I, as well, think we land Garza.  Something in the neighborhood of 5/80. 

 

For me, personally, if Garza is signed I will be very disappointed with our offseason efforts.

 

[Brandon]

just get one pitcher and throw out the four man rotation like the rockies did in 2012

[Inside Pitch]

Who in the hell is this Blarg guy?

 

 

My buddy Tino says they have a saying in his country about him - they call him the coyote of the desert that likes to eat the heart of the young and the blood drips down to his children for breakfast, lunch and dinner and only the ribs will be broken 

Edited November 25, 2013 by Inside Pitch