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Weaver is not an ace anymore


NrM

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Verlander's arm seems to have been a little less 'robust' this year though.  Could those pitch counts and ip have taken it's toll?

 

I dunno, his velocity is very slightly down this year at 93.9 vs 94.7 last year, but he's still throwing hard and striking out nearly 9 per 9.  His struggles have come mostly from command this season -- he's already walked 59 in 166.2 IP, vs 60 in 238.1 IP last year, and just 57 in 251 IP the year before.  For now I'd say he's still the posterboy for loosening pitch count restrictions given his durability.

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who is judging off of 2 starts? I'm judging off of his entire season and decline in velocity. If you don't think his decline in velocity is an issue then you don't understand pitching.

 

His velocity has been declining for the past few season. He's also had some of the best years of his career the past few seasons. You don't understand pitching if you think a player's success depends heavily on their velocity.

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His velocity has been declining for the past few season. He's also had some of the best years of his career the past few seasons. You don't understand pitching if you think a player's success depends heavily on their velocity.

there is a tipping point when it comes to velocity. Fangraphs did an interesting article about it. Weaver has gone past that point this season. I'll try to dig it up when i get off work.
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Our rotation is filled with middle & back end starters. We won't get a legit ace this offseason, unless we overpay for David Price, which I hope they don't do, due to his raise in arbitration and declining velocity. He used to throw 95 MPH consistently and now he's been in the low 90's all season. They were talking about it throughout the Orioles and Rays game today, I also never saw him get above 93. I hope they stay away from Price

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You aren't getting a Taijuan Walker caliber pitcher. Maybe a Martinez if you're lucky. The M's aren't dealing Walker. They're looking forward to having a rotation of King Felix, Walker, Iwakuma, Hultzen, Paxton...impressive.

 

We're going to finish 4th again next year if we don't make serious upgrades this offseason.

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Kershaw, Harvey, Jose Fernandez (Mia), Strasburg, Wainwright, king Felix, Scherzer, Verlander, Darvish, Cliff Lee, Price > Weaver

Good argument would have Hamels, Feancisco Liriano, Greinke and others > Weaver.

He is not a top 10 SP. he is still a front-line starter.

 

Also, Bumgarner and Iwakuma are better than Weaver. Possibly Gio Gonzalez too.

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They need to go after Garza in the offseason.

He looks very average for the Rangers right now. He has pitched like a #5 since coming to Texas. Another guy that put up good numbers for a while in the NL. yes he was solid when he played for TB but its not really translated since returning to the AL. He is certainly behind Darvish/Holand/Perez..

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who is judging off of 2 starts? I'm judging off of his entire season and decline in velocity. If you don't think his decline in velocity is an issue then you don't understand pitching.

 

Greg Maddux had a decline in velocity around the same time in his career. How did that work out for him?

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I will leave the "is Weaver an ace or not" to the rest of you, but if you look at numbers that actually reflect Weaver's pitching skill, the "decline" isn't steep enough to raise much concern:

 

HR/9

2011 - 0.8

2012 - 1.0

2013 - 1.0

 

Slight uptick in the last three seasons, but not enough of one to raise a concern. Also, these numbers are in line with his career numbers.

 

BB/9

2011 - 2.1

2012 - 2.1

2013 - 2.3

 

Another slight movement upward, but one additional walk every few games isn't enough to worry about.

 

K/9

2011 - 7.6

2012 - 6.8

2013 - 7.2

 

Difference isn't much, but Weaver is striking out hitters at a slightly higher rate than he did a year ago.

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