The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Inside Pitch]

15 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Last year, Mickey Moniak put up a 2.2 WAR season (according to Baseball-Reference) for league minimum.

First, defensive metrics are the murkiest of all stats.  BB-Reference's version of WAR focuses on DRS, FGs on UZR they are pretty similar, but DRS throws in subjective analysis using stringers to determine the difficulty by employing Baseball Info's Solutions, "Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays (GFP/DME) system", it does this to try to be more comprehensive but in doing so it can cause some double dipping which they then employ yet another methodology to try to factor that out.  It's there where the differences (however slight) make for "fuzzy" results and what many see as bWAR overrating a player's actual defensive production. 

Offensively they grade around OPS+ whereas fWAR uses wRC+ which is built on wOBA and if I have to explain to you why that makes one stat better than the other then there are multiple discussions that need to be had before even starting on the differences in bWAR and fWAR.  wOBA is built around the proven reality that getting on base (not making an out) is the biggest factor to scoring runs while OPS is treating OBP and SLG equally.

fWAR had Moniak as a 1.5 player.  It seems pretty clear that the version properly adjusting for the importance of not making outs is giving you a better idea of how well Moniak performed.  

Defensively it's back to the slight difference and added components.  DRS uses rPM (runs minus plus saved) to rate the player against the league average -- UZR uses RngR (range above runs average) to try to do the same thing -- both of these stats get their data from the same source (BIS), and RanR like rPM gives Moniak a positive score so it comes down to how much you really want to buy into subjective human analysis vs math.  

I don't know of a single person who prefers bWAR to fWAR.

15 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Every year at the end of ST there are plenty of guys that a team can get out of the scrapheap that can and probably would put up 2-3 WAR (not guaranteed that they would, but have the potential, but the same is true for Heyward and Yelich) who can potentially put up 2-3 WAR for near league minimum.

And yet we see so few do that.

Total number of OFers in all of MLB to post 2-3 WAR seasons among qualifiers 

2018 - 41, 
2019 - 36 
2021 - 32
2022 - 30
2023 - 34

Here are the actual names per year if you want to try to find the "plenty of guys" taken off the scrapheap who managed a 2-3 WAR season.

2018 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2018&pagenum=1

2019 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2021 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2022 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2022

2023 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023&pagenum=2

More importantly, here are all the Angels OFers to produce a 2.0 fWAR season since 2012 when Trout came up

Trout (every year). 
Hunter (2012)
Trumbo (2012)
Calhoun (2014, 2015, 2016, 2019)
Goodwin (2019)
Upton (2016, 2017)
Ward (2022)

12 seasons, 36 starting spots, another 1-2 back up spots, so anywhere between 36-60 spots and it's happened exactly once with Brian Goodwin.

I don't have any interest in discussing whether or not Yelich at 125 mil from age 33-37 (LOL), would be worth doing.  But let's not downplay just how valuable and yes RARE a legit 2 fWAR player is.  The Trout era Angels will likely be a case study on just how valuable and important a team full of 2 WAR players is .vs the eggs in one (or two) baskets approach the Angels have followed.

Sorry for the long post full of abbreviations and information very few of you likely have any interest in but out of respect for all parties involved I figured I'd do it this way than just say BULLSHIT! and dropping some snark... (like always)

Thank you and may God bless the Angels during these winter meetings.

"Hallelujah, Holy Shit! -- Where's the Tylenol!" 

[Angels 1961]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

First, defensive metrics are the murkiest of all stats.  BB-Reference's version of WAR focuses on DRS, FGs on UZR they are pretty similar, but DRS throws in subjective analysis using stringers to determine the difficulty by employing Baseball Info's Solutions, "Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays (GFP/DME) system", it does this to try to be more comprehensive but in doing so it can cause some double dipping which they then employ yet another methodology to try to factor that out.  It's there where the differences however slight make for "fuzzy" results and what many see as bWAR overrating a player's actual defensive production. 

Offensively they grade around OPS+ whereas fWAR uses wRC+ which is built on wOBA and if I have to explain to you why that makes one stat better than the other then there are multiple discussions that need to be had before even starting on the differences in bWAR and fWAR.  wOBA is built around the proven reality that getting on base (not making an out) is the biggest factor to scoring runs while OPS is treating OBP and SLG equally.

fWAR had Moniak as a 1.5 player.  It seems pretty clear that the version properly adjusting for the importance of not making outs is giving you a better idea of how well Moniak performed.  

Defensively it's back to the slight difference and added components.  DRS uses rPM (runs minus plus saved) to rate the player against the league average -- UZR uses RngR (range above runs average) to try to do the same thing -- both of these stats get their data from the same source (BIS), and RanR like rPM gives Moniak a positive score so it comes down to how much you really want to buy into subjective human analysis vs math.  

I don't know of a single person who prefers bWAR to fWAR.

And yet we see so few do that.

Total number of OFers in all of MLB to post 2-3 WAR seasons among qualifiers 

2018 - 41, 
2019 - 36 
2021 - 32
2022 - 30
2023 - 34

Here are the actual names per year if you want to try to find the "plenty of guys" taken off the scrapheap who managed a 2-3 WAR season.

2018 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2018&pagenum=1

2019 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2021 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2022 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2022

2023 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023&pagenum=2

More importantly, here are all the Angels OFers to produce a 2.0 fWAR season since 2012 when Trout came up

Trout (every year). 
Hunter (2012)
Trumbo (2012)
Calhoun (2014, 2015, 2016, 2019)
Goodwin (2019)
Upton (2016, 2017)
Ward (2022)

12 seasons, 36 starting spots, another 1-2 back up spot, so anywhere from 36-60 spots and it's happened exactly once with Brian Goodwin.

I don't have any interest in discussing whether or not Yelich at 125 mil from age 33-37 (LOL), would be worth doing.  But let's not downplay just how valuable and yes RARE a legit 2 fWAR player is.   

The Trout era Angels will likely be a case study on just how valuable and important a team full of 2 WAR players is .vs the eggs in one (or two) baskets approach the Angels have followed.

Sorry for the long post full of abbreviations and information very few of you likely have any interest in but out of respect for all parties involved I figured I'd do it this way than just say BULLSHIT! and drop some snark... (like always)

Thank you and may God bless the Angels during these winter meetings.

"Hallelujah, Holy Shit! -- Where's the Tylenol!" 

The fun is just getting started

[AngelStew43]

Guardians listening on Emmanuel Clase, per MLBTR.  44 saves, but 12 blown saves, to go with 9 losses.  He'd be an interesting add, but I don't think we have the pieces to match up. 

[Angel Oracle]

Yelich is 32 next season, still being owed that $130 million.

His D has never been all that good, and although the XBHs are there the power is somewhat iffy these days.

The two things he does bring the past 3 seasons (and before that) are OBP and base running (great SB %).

But is that worth even close enough to $26 million per season through 2028?

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Yelich is 32 next season, still being owed that $130 million.

His D has never been all that good, and although the XBHs are there the power is somewhat iffy these days.

The two things he does bring the past 3 seasons (and before that) are OBP and base running (great SB %).

But is that worth even close enough to $26 million per season through 2028?

If Milwaukee ate some money, it could be easier to tolerate. Either some amount to cover an portion annually, or perhaps taking on some of the Angels unneeded, lighter commitments they have now (Fletcher, Anderson, maybe Stassi) in order to help clear ‘24 payroll. 

Yelich only really works for the Angels if one or more of the following are true:

1) they’re committed to competing in ‘24 and ‘25 and need some proven OF production - Trout can’t stay on the field, Adell and Moniak have question marks, Ward’s recovery will be unknown. That means there are other win-now moves. What Yelich looks like in 2+ years won’t be Perry’s problem, or a problem he’ll knowingly have to work around later. But Yelich *could* improve the team now. They could also just sign an OF too. 
2) Milwaukee is eating short-term Angel money or the Angels are eating Yelich’s contract to get back someone like Burnes, Williams, or Adames. Not very likely. But not impossible. 
3) a third team is involved. I can’t exactly imagine who, but between Milwaukee and the Angels, there’s like 8 or 9 tradeable outfielders between Adell, Moniak, Ward, Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Taylor, and collective depth guys like Adams and lesser Brewer depth. A team that needs some young outfield talent could enter the fray. Additionally it could be the Angels are getting some bites on Ward, Adell, or Moniak that fill another need.

[Roy Hobbs]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

First, defensive metrics are the murkiest of all stats.  BB-Reference's version of WAR focuses on DRS, FGs on UZR they are pretty similar, but DRS throws in subjective analysis using stringers to determine the difficulty by employing Baseball Info's Solutions, "Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays (GFP/DME) system", it does this to try to be more comprehensive but in doing so it can cause some double dipping which they then employ yet another methodology to try to factor that out.  It's there where the differences however slight make for "fuzzy" results and what many see as bWAR overrating a player's actual defensive production. 

Offensively they grade around OPS+ whereas fWAR uses wRC+ which is built on wOBA and if I have to explain to you why that makes one stat better than the other then there are multiple discussions that need to be had before even starting on the differences in bWAR and fWAR.  wOBA is built around the proven reality that getting on base (not making an out) is the biggest factor to scoring runs while OPS is treating OBP and SLG equally.

fWAR had Moniak as a 1.5 player.  It seems pretty clear that the version properly adjusting for the importance of not making outs is giving you a better idea of how well Moniak performed.  

Defensively it's back to the slight difference and added components.  DRS uses rPM (runs minus plus saved) to rate the player against the league average -- UZR uses RngR (range above runs average) to try to do the same thing -- both of these stats get their data from the same source (BIS), and RanR like rPM gives Moniak a positive score so it comes down to how much you really want to buy into subjective human analysis vs math.  

I don't know of a single person who prefers bWAR to fWAR.

And yet we see so few do that.

Total number of OFers in all of MLB to post 2-3 WAR seasons among qualifiers 

2018 - 41, 
2019 - 36 
2021 - 32
2022 - 30
2023 - 34

Here are the actual names per year if you want to try to find the "plenty of guys" taken off the scrapheap who managed a 2-3 WAR season.

2018 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2018&pagenum=1

2019 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2021 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2019&pagenum=2

2022 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2022

2023 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=of&team=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023&pagenum=2

More importantly, here are all the Angels OFers to produce a 2.0 fWAR season since 2012 when Trout came up

Trout (every year). 
Hunter (2012)
Trumbo (2012)
Calhoun (2014, 2015, 2016, 2019)
Goodwin (2019)
Upton (2016, 2017)
Ward (2022)

12 seasons, 36 starting spots, another 1-2 back up spot, so anywhere from 36-60 spots and it's happened exactly once with Brian Goodwin.

I don't have any interest in discussing whether or not Yelich at 125 mil from age 33-37 (LOL), would be worth doing.  But let's not downplay just how valuable and yes RARE a legit 2 fWAR player is.  The Trout era Angels will likely be a case study on just how valuable and important a team full of 2 WAR players is .vs the eggs in one (or two) baskets approach the Angels have followed.

Sorry for the long post full of abbreviations and information very few of you likely have any interest in but out of respect for all parties involved I figured I'd do it this way than just say BULLSHIT! and drop some snark... (like always)

Thank you and may God bless the Angels during these winter meetings.

"Hallelujah, Holy Shit! -- Where's the Tylenol!" 

Inside Pitch delivering some facts, I think as Angel fans we might be a little spoiled by Trout's excellence. 2fWAR doesn't seem very valuable but it turns out to be more rare than I thought.Great stuff, also nice quote from Clark W Griswold.

[Inside Pitch]

53 minutes ago, Roy Hobbs said:

also nice quote from Clark W Griswold.

The man was a prophet.

[Angels 1961]

This player had 1.4 war last year. 263 BA 357 OBP 35 BB 42 K 19 SB 1 CS. He does not have any power good glove and could get him cheap. I think a good addition to OF in case of injury or trades. Travis Jankowski. If Ohtani does not come back opens DH for Trout few times a week and OF be Adell (unless he is traded) Ward (if he can comeback from injury) and Moniak (hope he can cut down on K's). Angel's zero options in farm right now. 

[Tank]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

First, defensive metrics are the murkiest of all stats.  BB-Reference's version of WAR focuses on DRS, FGs on UZR they are pretty similar, but DRS throws in subjective analysis using stringers to determine the difficulty by employing Baseball Info's Solutions, "Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays (GFP/DME) system", it does this to try to be more comprehensive but in doing so it can cause some double dipping which they then employ yet another methodology to try to factor that out.  It's there where the differences however slight make for "fuzzy" results and what many see as bWAR overrating a player's actual defensive production. 

Offensively they grade around OPS+ whereas fWAR uses wRC+ which is built on wOBA and if I have to explain to you why that makes one stat better than the other then there are multiple discussions that need to be had before even starting on the differences in bWAR and fWAR.  wOBA is built around the proven reality that getting on base (not making an out) is the biggest factor to scoring runs while OPS is treating OBP and SLG equally.

fWAR had Moniak as a 1.5 player.  It seems pretty clear that the version properly adjusting for the importance of not making outs is giving you a better idea of how well Moniak performed.  

Defensively it's back to the slight difference and added components.  DRS uses rPM (runs minus plus saved) to rate the player against the league average -- UZR uses RngR (range above runs average) to try to do the same thing -- both of these stats get their data from the same source (BIS), and RanR like rPM gives Moniak a positive score so it comes down to how much you really want to buy into subjective human analysis vs math.  

I don't know of a single person who prefers bWAR to fWAR.

[Mark68]

Shane Bieber Open To Extension Following Potential Trade - MLB Trade Rumors

 

"Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years."

[Angels 1961]

What would Angel's give up for Dylan Cease?

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What would Angel's give up for Dylan Cease?

 More than we'd be comfortable with. 

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What would Angel's give up for Dylan Cease?

They have the pieces to get a rental. They don’t have the pieces for Cease. 

[Angels 1961]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They have the pieces to get a rental. They don’t have the pieces for Cease. 

I heard it would take Sandoval, Caden Dana, Nelson Rada

[AngelStew43]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

I heard it would take Sandoval, Caden Dana, Nelson Rada

You read it would take Sandoval, Caden Dana, and Nelson Rada from Halos Hangout.  Give credit to the source, please. 

[Wisconsin27]

No interest whatsoever in Yellich.  The bill will come due and we'll have to watch and suffer.  When will we learn these long-term contracts given to 33+ year old position players rarely, if ever, work out?  I'm exhausted with this approach.

[totdprods]

Hah, it’s an awful deal for the Brewers, but Sandoval + Neto have greater value than Burnes, Adames and Devin Williams on the trade site. Shows why it’s not always the best line of reference. 

If that did have any legs, the Angels would only be added around $30m to the ‘24 payroll. Still money to spend to replace Sandoval in the rotation and bulk up the pen and offensive depth, or it could be be a win-now move that still allowed signing Ohtani.

Pure FANTASY to land all three in one deal, even more so one built around Neto and Sandoval.

[HBAngel13]

If the Angels take the all-in approach for 2024 (which I don’t endorse), could you build a trade package headlined by Sandoval and Moniak for Soto?  The trade simulator isn’t gospel, but it has that deal as an overpay for the Angels. 

Bring in Soto and sign Yamamoto and you have essentially replaced Ohtani’s 2023 performance and unclogged the DH spot.  Plus you have the option to flip Soto for value at the deadline, or explore an extension.  Most importantly you have spread the risk over two players. Assuming no Ohtani, you probably still have enough payroll space for an another mid-level move or two. 
 

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

If the Angels take the all-in approach for 2024 (which I don’t endorse), could you build a trade package headlined by Sandoval and Moniak for Soto?  The trade simulator isn’t gospel, but it has that deal as an overpay for the Angels. 

Bring in Soto and sign Yamamoto and you have essentially replaced Ohtani’s 2023 performance and unclogged the DH spot.  Plus you have the option to flip Soto for value at the deadline, or explore an extension.  Most importantly you have spread the risk over two players. Assuming no Ohtani, you probably still have enough payroll space for an another mid-level move or two. 
 

My personal opinion is if you take the all in approach you trade Sandoval for Burnes. You trade Canning for Bieber as well. Then you also sign Snell. You then keep adding to raise the floor.  If Ohtani wants to join that team then he’s welcome as well. 

[HBAngel13]

15 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My personal opinion is if you take the all in approach you trade Sandoval for Burnes. You trade Canning for Bieber as well. Then you also sign Snell. You then keep adding to raise the floor.  If Ohtani wants to join that team then he’s welcome as well. 

If you could pull that off and swap Snell with Yamamoto…

I like the thinking, but I question our ability to pull off two trades of that caliber. 

[Angels 1961]

Top players and teams waiting on Ohtani. Value will go up for Yamamoto, Snell plus trade value for top pitchers on the trade market and Soto also.

[wopphil]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

My personal opinion is if you take the all in approach you trade Sandoval for Burnes. You trade Canning for Bieber as well. Then you also sign Snell. You then keep adding to raise the floor.  If Ohtani wants to join that team then he’s welcome as well. 

I don’t think Canning or Sandoval have the trade value to be centerpieces of either deal. 

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I don’t think Canning or Sandoval have the trade value to be centerpieces of either deal. 

Depends on what they want.  The most valuable asset these days is years of club control which is why Bieber and Burnes don’t hold the value they once had. So if Cleveland wants to continue to compete or the Brewers want to compete they may prefer MLB players with control over prospects. Three years of Sandoval is worth the same as one year of Burnes. 

[Stradling]

 

[angelsnationtalk]

I was hoping Ohtani would sign before the Winter Meetings, but it seems like that won't be the case. 

Here's hoping the next few days are WILD.