On Mike Trout: Can He Make One More Adjustment? (Part 2)

[Angelsjunky]

Part 1 can be found here.

PART 2: Among the Greats

For this next part, I'll take a deep-dive into historical comps to try to get a sense of what we might expect for the remainder of Trout's career. For such an approach, at least two problems exist: One, for a player as great as Trout, there are few close historical comps, so in order to get adequate data we have to spread the net a bit wide. Two, Trout is a unique individual -- including his personality, skill-set, and his physique; while we can find an array of somewhat similar players in terms of statistical profiles, they're ultimately all different human beings, playing under different circumstances which can't really be accounted for statistically. A third factor that should be considered is context: The game of 2023 is quite different from 1983, let along 1943 or 1903.

The point being, looking at historical comps only gets us so far. But it at least provides something to work with, to get a sense of how somewhat similar players--whether in terms of greatness or player profile--fared in their 30s (or for the remainder of Trout's contract, age 32-38).

8 WAR Seasons

To start I took a relatively broad approach, looking at ever player with at least two 8 fWAR seasons. Why 8 fWAR? Well, it is a level of performance which makes it likely that a player is the best in their league in a given year. Not every great player has reached 8 WAR in a season; take for instance the great Johnny Mize, who finished his career with 68.1 WAR, 15th highest among first basemen, despite only playing in 1884 games, as he missed three prime years (age 30-32) to World War 2 service, probably losing 15-20 WAR in the process. His best year was 7.7 WAR. Or similarly, Frank Thomas who finished his career with 72.1 WAR (11th among first basemen) and 154 wRC+ (30th all-time), but peaked out at 7.2 WAR, mostly due to being a (poor defending) first baseman. Even the great Hank Aaron "only" had four 8 WAR seasons; his greatness was largely defined by incredible consistency at an MVP level over a long period of time: For 14 straight seasons, from 1955-69, he produced at least 5.9 WAR, and only the first of those was below 6.8. Furthermore, over the course of his illustrious 23-year career, he had 11 seasons of 7 WAR or better, 15 of 6 or better, and 17 of 5 or better.

As a general rule, an average regular has a WAR roughly in the 2.0 to 3.5 range; a borderline star is roughly 3.5 to 5.0 WAR, an all-star 5.0 to 6.0, and a superstart 6.0 and above. 7.0 and above is an MVP candidate--arguably the best player in their league--and 8 WAR is arguably the best player in the game. Once you get to 9.0 WAR and above, you're getting into once a year, historical seasons. 10 WAR seasons only happen every few years and are historically great - close to or within the top 50 best seasons of all time.

To illustrate this, from 1871 to 2023--153 years of baseball statistics--here is how many position players have reached various marks:

10+ WAR: 55 seasons (a bit more than 1 ever three years)

9+ WAR: 139 seasons (a bit less than 1 per year)

8+ WAR: 281 seasons (a bit less than 2 per year)

7+ WAR: 618 seasons (about 4 per year)

6+ WAR: 1237 seasons (about 8 per year)

5+ WAR: 2371 seasons (a bit less than 16 per year)

As you can see, from 10 WAR down, there are about twice as many players in each threshold.

The above totals are taken from 19,473 player seasons of at least 400 PA (so about 80% of a qualifying season). It includes a wide range of play styles and contexts. However, if we narrow it down to the expansion era, or 1961-2023, you get very similar rates, except for 7 and 5 WAR, where it becomes more like 5 per year for 7 WAR and 22 per year for 5 WAR; I take this to be due to the larger number of players. But the high end of the scale remains the same, with the caveat that during the expansion era, there were fewer very high outliers (that is, 11+ WAR seasons).

Anyhow, the point being that there are, on average, about two 8 WAR position player seasons a year, which essentially equates to the two MVPs. In the Trout era, from 2012-23, here are the number of 8 WAR seasons per year, with bold face meaning Trout is one of them: 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 2, NA, 0, 1, 2 (The NA is for 2020 when the season was only 60 games).

So that's 22 seasons of 8 WAR or higher in the last 11 full seasons (2 per year), or a bit above the historical average (1.84). Oh, and Trout has 7 of them; Betts 3; Judge and Bregman 2 each; and Cabrera, McCutchen, Donaldson, Posey, Lucroy, Ramirez, Harper, and Acuna 1 each.

So I picked 8 WAR as a threshold because of its historical relevance as roughly synonymous with being the best player in the league, and considered two 8 WAR seasons rather than just one because it cuts out "one year wonders" like Darin Erstad, whose 8.7 WAR in 2000 was his only season above even 4 WAR.

Those 281 position player seasons of 8+ WAR were accomplished by 124 players. Of those 124 players, 47 of them had multiple 8 WAR seasons. Of those 47, four are active: Trout, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Aaron Judge. Presumably new 8 WAR club member Ronald Acuna has a good chance of joining them, with Bryce Harper and Jose Ramirez also having single 8 WAR seasons, though both less likely to have a second.

Here's where Trout's greatness really starts to stand out: Not only is he one of only 47 position players with multiple 8 WAR seasons, he's got seven, something accomplished only by nine players: Willie Mays and Babe Ruth with 11 each, Barry Bonds with 10, Rogers Hornsby and Lou Gehrig with 9 each, Honus Wagner and Ted Williams with 8 each, and Eddie Collins and Mike Trout with 7 each. 

You'll note that of those nine players, Trout and Bonds are the only players to play since 1973 when Willie Mays retired. Before Mays, it was Williams in 1960 and the five others retired in the 1920s or 30s. So Mays, Bonds, and Trout are the only such players to play a significant portion (or all) of their careers in the expansion era.

Among players with 6 such seasons, you have Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, and Alex Rodriguez -- again, mostly old-timers; 5 seasons and you add Mickey Mantle and Joe Morgan. 4 adds Nap Lajoie, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs and Albert Pujols, and 3 adds nine more players, including Betts.

So we get a nice array of inner circle Hall of Famers, but most of whom played before the expansion era. Morgan is the only player with 5 or more 8 WAR seasons that doesn't have at least 100 career fWAR, and he's just shy at 98.8. Of the players with 7 or more, aside from Trout the lowest career fWAR total is Lou Gehrig with 115.9 -- a player whose career was shortened due to a debilitating illness. The other six all have over 120 WAR.

The Chart

What you see above is a chart of all 47 players with at least two 8 WAR seasons, sorted first by number of 8 WAR seasons (third column) and secondly by career WAR (last column).

A few observations to make.

• Notice where chart is on the chart, and among whom. The eight players above him and the five below him all have 100+ WAR. Of those thirteen players, all but one has 110 WAR, and all but four (9 of 13) have 120 WAR.
• The first player without a 7 WAR season in his 30s is 11 spots lower than Trout - Mr. Albert Pujols.
• 6 of the 47 players debuted in the 21st century. Trout (2011) is 9th on the list, then Pujols at 20th, then Betts at 30th, Chase Utley at 38th, Judge at 44th, and Bregman at 45th.
• Of the seven previous players in the "7-8s Club," all had at least one 7 WAR (MVP caliber) season in their 30s, and only Collins didn't have at least three 7 WAR seasons. In other words, 6 of the 7 players with the same number of 8 WAR seasons as Trout had at least three 7 WAR seasons (or MVP caliber) in their 30s.

None of this automatically means that Trout is due for multiple 7 WAR seasons going forward or 120+ WAR, but it does show us the type of company he's in, and implies that he has a good chance of at least one more MVP caliber season. If he doesn't, he'll be the first player in the "7-8s Club" to not have at least one 7 WAR season in his 30s.

All of the players with six 8 WAR seasons had at least one 7 WAR season in their 30s; but among the five 8 WAR players, both Mantle and Pujols didn't reach 7 WAR in their 30s.

If we expand the pool to the 20 players (not including Trout) with at least four 8 WAR seasons, it is just those two--Mantle and Pujols--who never had a 7 WAR season in their 30s; meaning, 18 of 20, or 90%, had at least one MVP caliber season in their 30s, and 15 of those, or 75%, had multiple such seasons.

Can Trout have another 7+ WAR season?

Given the last few years of sub-par performance, It isn't hard to imagine Trout setting a new precedent, as the best player in baseball history not to have an MVP caliber (as defined as 7 WAR) season in his 30s. Right now that honor belongs to Mickey Mantle, with Albert Pujols and Mel Ott also in the mix. Others in the multi-8 WAR club include Ken Griffey Jr, Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, George Sisler, Duke Snider, Arky Vaughan, John Olerud, Snuffy Stirnweiss, and Benny Kauff. Alex Bregman turns 30 next year, so the jury is still out. But all of those guys--after Mantle, Pujols, and Ott--were significantly lesser players than Trout.

One factor working against Trout from having a 7 WAR season (or two) in his 30s is that he just turned 32, meaning every season going forward will be at age 32 or older. But even so, of the 20 players with four or more 8 WAR seasons, and whittled down to 15 players who had at least one 7 WAR season in their 30s, only Boggs, Foxx, and A-Rod had their last 7 WAR season at age 30 or 31; meaning, the other 12 still had 7 WAR seasons at age 32 or older. Still a majority, in other words. And 10 of them--or half--had 7 WAR seasons at age 34 or older, and all but Collins and Hornsby among the 7-8s Club.

Alright, if you made it through that, what does it all mean? Can we conclude anything from looking at players with similar accomplishments, as defined by multiple 8 WAR seasons?

Yes and no. The vast majority of players with five or more 8 WAR seasons still produced MVP caliber seasons in their 30s. Again, of the players with the same number as Trout--seven or more--so far he's the only one who didn't produce at least one 7 WAR season in his 30s. But he's got a lot of time left. We can hope that he'll follow his historical comps and have at least one such season.

To Be Concluded...

Edited October 5, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[REDneck]

I injured my hamate bone scrolling.

 

Great job AJ!

[Chuck]

Good series, @Angelsjunky. I'm going to get these posted on the blog once all three are done. 

[m0nkey]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:45 PM, Angelsjunky said:

One factor working against Trout from having a 7 WAR season (or two) in his 30s is that he just turned 32, meaning every season going forward will be at age 32 or older.

[Blarg]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:45 PM, Angelsjunky said:

One factor working against Trout from having a 7 WAR season (or two) in his 30s is that he just turned 32, meaning every season going forward will be at age 32 or older.

Yes but he has been taking about a 1/3 or more of a year off for the last five so he is more like in his 29th season. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Yes but he has been taking about a 1/3 or more of a year off for the last five so he is more like in his 29th season. 

I've thought of that and it makes sense in theory, but worry it is wishful thinking. Plus, he played a lot through 2019, so maybe it sort of evens out.