OC Register: Angels’ Mike Trout searching for answers to rare extended slump

[AngelsWin.com]

BALTIMORE — Mike Trout stood at his locker fully understanding the questions were coming.

Unfortunately, he didn’t have the answers.

The Angels superstar is currently mired in one of the rare extended slumps in a career that has included three American League MVP awards and will end with a trip to the Hall of Fame.

“If I could pinpoint it, I could fix it by now,” Trout said before Wednesday’s game. “Some at-bats I feel good and some I’m just under balls.”

Trout has hit .185 with a .526 OPS over the 14 games leading into Wednesday, with 17 strikeouts and four walks in 60 plate appearances.

“Just searching, trying to maybe press and do too much,” Trout said. “I think the last few games it seems like one game it’s there and the next game it seems something is off. That’s baseball for you. … It’s frustrating because you’re getting a lot of chances and you’re not coming through for your team. That’s what it comes down to. As a competitor, you want to go out there and do your best and be your best. Sometimes things aren’t right. It’s tough.”

Outside of when he first debuted in the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2011, Trout has had just one 14-game stretch in which his OPS was this low, and that was sandwiched around his back injury last year. (His career-worst 0-for-26 slump last year spanned just seven games, and he did fine immediately before and after it.)

Trout, 31, insists there is nothing physically wrong with him now, which is partly because the Angels have been giving him days off to keep him fresh.

“Actually this is the best I’ve ever felt,” he said. “It’s a little frustrating because you feel like you’re getting a lot of opportunities and you’re not coming through. But it’s baseball. It’s a long season. Things will turn around.”

One of the most puzzling parts of Trout’s slump is the trouble he has with fastballs.

“I’m just a tick under them or a tick late,” Trout said.

Trout has whiffed on 28.6% of his swings at fastballs this season, which is the highest rate of his career. Last year was the first season that Trout was ever higher than 20%. The major league average whiff rate on fastballs is 20.1% this season.

During Trout’s current slump, his whiff rate at fastballs is 29.3%, which is only slightly worse than what he was in April. The difference is that he’s seen more fastballs. Pitchers have thrown him a fastball 70.7% of the time in May, compared with 64% in April.

Trout is hitting .247 with a .484 slugging percentage on at-bats that end with a fastball, compared with the major league averages of .268 and .442.

Trout’s performance against breaking balls (.292 and .521) and offspeed pitches (.375 and .438) has been better than average, which has helped him stay afloat.

All of that raises the question of whether Trout is simply losing the ability to catch up to fastballs that get harder every year.

Manager Phil Nevin said the Angels’ measurements of Trout’s bat speed have shown no decline.

“The only slight difference might be the bat angle, but those are things we can work on mechanically,” Nevin said.

Fastballs nowadays are not what they were even a few years ago. Pitchers now have a better understanding of how spin can make it tougher for hitters to get the bat on fastballs up in the zone, which is where Trout has always had some trouble.

“Everybody has a weakness,” Nevin said. “His are smaller than anybody’s in the game. Pitchers are getting better and better. They find some things here and there, but if they miss by a small margin, he’s gonna get it when he’s right.”

Trout said flatly that he is not concerned about this slump having long-term implications.

Even with this slump, he still has an .852 OPS and an OPS+ of 130, meaning he’s 30% better than the average major-league hitter. He ranks third in the majors in OPS among all players who have played 75% of their games in center field.

As recently as April 29, before this slump began, Trout had an OPS of 1.020. He hit his sixth and seventh homers of the season in that game, which at that time put him on a pace for more than 40 homers.

“It’s just like any player,” Nevin said. “You get some ups and downs and highs and lows in a season. Mike’s no different than the others. It’s just the fact that his highs are so impressive. He’s what many people say is the best player in the world so when he has a couple of weeks stretch like everyone in the world does, a lot of people want to know what the heck’s wrong. My best answer is nothing.”

RENDON UPDATE

The Angels were encouraged by the MRI results on third baseman Anthony Rendon, who is on the injured list with a strained groin.

“There are a few different spots where it’s at,” Nevin said. “Hopefully they all heal at the same time and it won’t be too long.”

Nevin said Rendon will begin doing some baseball activity when the Angels return home this weekend, and they’ll re-evaluate him then.

WALSH UPDATE

First baseman Jared Walsh told Nevin after his three-hit game on Tuesday that his “timing is coming along quicker than he thought.”

Walsh, who has missed the first quarter of the season because of treatment for headaches and insomnia, is 7 for 17 with a home run in five games at Triple-A.

Nevin said Walsh is expected to play first base for Salt Lake on Thursday and Friday, and then they will have the conversation to determine the next step.

NOTES

Right-hander Jaime Barría hasn’t pitched in 11 days, but Nevin and Barria both said the pitcher has been fine. He has warmed up a few times during the stretch. …

Right-hander Davis Daniel (right shoulder strain) has been on the injured list since early in spring training, but he has begun throwing, Nevin said. He is still “a long way away,” Nevin said. …

The Angels are planning to discuss what to do with the rotation on Friday, but Nevin said they are still leaning toward having Chase Silseth start again on Monday. Nevin said a normal between-starts routine should help Silseth maintain his strength deeper into the game than when he gave up four runs in 3-1/3 innings on Tuesday.

UP NEXT

Angels (LHP Tyler Anderson, 1-0, 5.26 ERA) at Orioles (RHP Tyler Wells, 3-1, 2.68), Thursday, 9:35 a.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

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[UndertheHalo]

I feel like Trout has had a slump somewhat similar to this every year for a while now.  Trout is not one of the main things I think will be a problem for the Angels as the season goes on.  

[Angelsjunky]

I charted most or all of Trout's seasons in terms of slumps, and last year was by far the worst: more, longer and worse slumps. 2023 seems to be continuing the pattern, which may actually indicate decline, perhaps coupled with pitchers throwing slightly harder and more "spinny" than five years ago.

Anyhow, I hope Nevin is right and his bat speed hasn't diminished. I suggested in another thread that I think it is mostly in his head, that the skills are there. The diminished walk rate over the last two years is a bit concerning, though. He should be walking more not less in his early 30s, and if he's not getting his timing right, he should be focusing on getting on base, not getting hacky. Kind of a weird slump pattern for such a historically disciplined hitter.

That said, I'm not going to really worry for another week or two. I think chances are he breaks out of it, and he'll get really hot by June. But if he's not raking by June, I'll be worried.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[full circle]

it’s funny how Trout says he can’t pinpoint the problem, and then the article pinpoints the problem.  Pitchers are basically throwing every single pitch to him hard and up and in, and he can’t hit it.  It’s a huge hole in his loopy swing.  Mechanical adjustments can fix it.  But for whatever reason, he hasn’t.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, full circle said:

it’s funny how Trout says he can’t pinpoint the problem, and then the article pinpoints the problem.  Pitchers are basically throwing every single pitch to him hard and up and in, and he can’t hit it.  It’s a huge hole in his loopy swing.  Mechanical adjustments can fix it.  But for whatever reason, he hasn’t.  

I wonder if it is because he's a victim of his own success: he's always relatively easily adjusted, so maybe has figured out he'll eventually start hitting it. Maybe he will, but I think some intentionality will be required, and it might take the majority of the season.

[TroutField]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I wonder if it is because he's a victim of his own success: he's always relatively easily adjusted, so maybe has figured out he'll eventually start hitting it. Maybe he will, but I think some intentionality will be required, and it might take the majority of the season.

I’m sure he’s sensing the season slipping away again and is starting to press. 
 

Mike Trout going into a steep decline in his early 30s would be a very Angels thing. 

[full circle]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I wonder if it is because he's a victim of his own success: he's always relatively easily adjusted, so maybe has figured out he'll eventually start hitting it. Maybe he will, but I think some intentionality will be required, and it might take the majority of the season.

He grooved his swing long ago to be able to hit the slider because that’s how he was gonna be pitched most of the time back then.  Fastballs up in the zone is kinda counter intuitive to old school pitching coaches always yelling to keep the ball down.  But the smart ones figured out up in the zone is effective too, and Trout still crushes pitches down.  This evolution has been happening for years now and his percentage of fastballs seen has never been higher.  The swing adjustments should’ve been happening over the offseason while he had time.  Who knows, maybe he tried and just can’t do it.  But I doubt that, he’s been one of the best hitters of his time.  It’s hard to believe he doesn’t have the ability to improve that zone at least somewhat. 

[Jason]

Trout’s great years are in the past now. Hopefully the decline is gradual and not a cliff 

[T.G.]

12 hours ago, TroutField said:

I’m sure he’s sensing the season slipping away again and is starting to press. 

BS

[Angelsjunky]

A few considerations.

Trout is only 31, 32 later this August. He shouldn't be rapidly declining yet, especially in this era and with his offensive skills. Players tend to decline first in terms of speed and thus defense, and then contact skills, and then later power and plate discipline. Trout seems to be just as fast as ever and looks the same defensively, but is struggling with hitting. Most notably, his plate discipline and power is way down, which shouldn't really happen as a first sign of serious decline. This implies that it isn't age-related decline, but other factors.

Now there may be some correlation between games played at an early age and earlyish decline. I haven't done an in-depth study, but a couple years I checked it out a bit and--if I remember correctly--found that players who declined early tended to have started earlier. So there is likely a wear and tear factor. It may be that every player comes with a kind of predetermined "expiration date" that is based more on games played than it is on chronological age (or really, a combo of both).

Trout, though, has missed a lot of time over the last few years. Consider:

Through his age 24 season (2016), he had played 811 games, 15th all-time.

Through his age 27 season (2019), he had played 1199 games, 22nd all-time.

Through age age 30 season (2022), he had played in 1407 games, tied for 104th all-time.

Meaning, his paced slowed in his late 20s due to injury and covid, and now he's not even in the top 100 of games played through age 30. One would hope that games lost at age 28-30 can be added in later on through greater longevity than he would have had if he had kept up his earlier pace. But that might be wishful thinking on my part.

[full circle]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

A few considerations.

Trout is only 31, 32 later this August. He shouldn't be rapidly declining yet, especially in this era and with his offensive skills. Players tend to decline first in terms of speed and thus defense, and then contact skills, and then later power and plate discipline. Trout seems to be just as fast as ever and looks the same defensively, but is struggling with hitting. Most notably, his plate discipline and power is way down, which shouldn't really happen as a first sign of serious decline. This implies that it isn't age-related decline, but other factors.

Now there may be some correlation between games played at an early age and earlyish decline. I haven't done an in-depth study, but a couple years I checked it out a bit and--if I remember correctly--found that players who declined early tended to have started earlier. So there is likely a wear and tear factor. It may be that every player comes with a kind of predetermined "expiration date" that is based more on games played than it is on chronological age (or really, a combo of both).

Trout, though, has missed a lot of time over the last few years. Consider:

Through his age 24 season (2016), he had played 811 games, 15th all-time.

Through his age 27 season (2019), he had played 1199 games, 22nd all-time.

Through age age 30 season (2022), he had played in 1407 games, tied for 104th all-time.

Meaning, his paced slowed in his late 20s due to injury and covid, and now he's not even in the top 100 of games played through age 30. One would hope that games lost at age 28-30 can be added in later on through greater longevity than he would have had if he had kept up his earlier pace. But that might be wishful thinking on my part.

Correct.  People always look for the easiest answer which is just to say he’s declining.  He is not physically declining, yet.  He’s still explosive.  His problem is poor mechanical adjustments that honestly should’ve been addressed by now.   I question how much honest effort he’s put into it or how much of a problem he recognizes it to be.  The greats of baseball don’t strike out at the rate he does.   

[Swordsman78]

55 minutes ago, full circle said:

Correct.  People always look for the easiest answer which is just to say he’s declining.  He is not physically declining, yet.  He’s still explosive.  His problem is poor mechanical adjustments that honestly should’ve been addressed by now.   I question how much honest effort he’s put into it or how much of a problem he recognizes it to be.  The greats of baseball don’t strike out at the rate he does.   

You don't know that, and certainly don't have any basis to question Trout's effort.  This is pure speculation on your part, and it's not the first time

In fact, the the contrary is well documented, even this week in the interview Trout gave.   If there is a single A message board somewhere, you should be there honing your craft.

[CaliAngel]

22 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Trout is not one of the main things I think will be a problem for the Angels as the season goes on.  

100% agree. 

They call it a "slump" and yet he's atill hitting .275 with 10 homers...the GOAT will be fine...

18 hours ago, Jason said:

Trout’s great years are in the past now. Hopefully the decline is gradual and not a cliff 

100% disagree.

He is still a beast to watch, I don't think I'm alone in saying he's one at bat you never wanna miss.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

100% agree. 

They call it a "slump" and yet he's atill hitting .275 with 10 homers...the GOAT will be fine...

100% disagree.

He is still a beast to watch, I don't think I'm alone in saying he's one at bat you never wanna miss.

I didn’t say he sucks. I said his best years are in the past. He’s still a good player but he’s not the same Trout as we are used to