The Official 2023 MLB Amateur Draft Thread

[Hubs]

4 minutes ago, mmc said:

How many 11th overall picks go on to be “exceptional”?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=11&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0#draft_stats

Best overall pick with #11, was Max Scherzer in 2006 by the D'Backs. Andrew McCutchen (2005) and George Springer (2011) also went #11.

Recently, Kevin Parada, Brady House, Grayson Rodriguez, Garrett Crochet, Alex Manoah, Jake Burger and Kyle Lewis all went 11.

Angels have picked once at #11 in 1965, they also took a 1st baseman named Jim Spencer.

[Blarg]

Just now, mmc said:

Or he can admit it’s a dumb expectation 

Or you could do the research to see what the expectation baseline is.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=11&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

Or he can admit it’s a dumb expectation 

You should probably throw that bowl of cherrios away. Someone made a peepee in it. Its an opinion, just like you have an opinion. 

[mmc]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Or you could do the research to see what the expectation baseline is.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=11&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

And see that my point was correctly proven that the vast majority don’t become exceptional players?  Thanks for doing the work for me.

[Hubs]

Frank Thomas is the best 1st round 1st baseman (7th overall in 1989).

McGwire (10th in 1984), Helton (8th in 1995), Will Clark (2nd in 1985), Lance Berkman, Mo Vaughn, Baines, Berkman, Pena, A-Gon.

 

Good first baseman are picked in the first round, It happens. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=1B&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

[Angelsfan1984]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Frank Thomas is the best 1st round 1st baseman (7th overall in 1989).

McGwire (10th in 1984), Helton (8th in 1995), Will Clark (2nd in 1985), Lance Berkman, Mo Vaughn, Baines, Berkman, Pena, A-Gon.

 

Good first baseman are picked in the first round, It happens. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=1B&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

I dont think anyone is arguing that. Good 1B are drafted in any round on any given year. The point, is that 1B is much much easier to replace/fill in for than other positions. So with that, you better be pretty sure you're hitting on the prospect if you're willing to take them that high. I have confidence in Perry as a GM and his ability to spot talent (especially fast moving players that will produce quickly).

[Angel Oracle]

They must be high on Rios as a future 3B?

Would have been nice to have the second round pick instead of Anderson, but would have, should have, whatever.

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

They must be high on Rios as a future 3B?

Would have been nice to have the second round pick instead of Anderson, but would have, should have, whatever.

Must be. I think we're seeing Andersons floor (and its pretty ugly) but if he improves the 2nd half or even in year 2, i think it will be a wash.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Respectfully, no. Even if Schanuel is a Top 5 1B in a couple years, which is far from a given still, I still would think it wouldn’t be as valuable as another Zach Neto-type talent complimenting him at second base or perhaps third.

Do you believe such a player with the same stats would have been available at the 11th pick?  That's kind of the rub.

1B in the first round tend to be low priority picks -- mostly because they are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.  You have to figure they really believe that OBP will translate, because he's not shown elite power.

I don't really know what to make of this draft -- I'm assuming there is a sense of immediacy at play due to the potential loss of Ohtani and the need for offense from a position that is very much in the air right now.

They are potentially looking to fill a need in the rotation, as well as starters at 1B, DH and the OF.   Arte may have seen the light, maybe he does want to "finish the job" but I can't see them going apeshit in FA next year -- so cheap help from within is a must.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Skips said:

There's a reason why nobody picks 1B in the draft that early....and even in the whole 1st round rarely.  Arguing the point is a losing cause.  Facts are facts.  

I think i'm more annoyed that it was not an under slot signing than the actual selection of a 1B.  Still, you have the #11 pick -- time to get a true difference maker and at a valued position.  Whether that be a SP or somewhere else.  1B is a bad selection.

Taking a player with no defensive fallback in the first is always iffy.  Not unlike drafting a closer in the first round.. Sometimes it makes sense but those guys don't come along very often.  

No clue if this dude is worth it, mostly believe it's the front office thinking they may need to have as many pieces as possible in house and you have to figure that plate discipline will translate.  The fact that he's not a three outcome guy is nice too.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Do you believe such a player with the same stats would have been available at the 11th pick?  That's kind of the rub.

1B in the first round tend to be low priority picks -- mostly because they are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.  You have to figure they really believe that OBP will translate, because he's not shown elite power.

I don't really know what to make of this draft -- I'm assuming there is a sense of immediacy at play due to the potential loss of Ohtani and the need for offense from a position that is very much in the air right now.

They are potentially looking to fill a need in the rotation, as well as starters at 1B, DH and the OF.   Arte may have seen the light, maybe he does want to "finish the job" but I can't see them going apeshit in FA next year -- so cheap help from within is a must.

I don’t think there’s really wide variance between the 9th pick, the 11th pick, the 18th pick. The last page has shown how much of a crapshoot even first-round talent is. 

I like Schanuel’s profile, and I recognize that he could solve 1B for us relatively quickly and for years to come…but all the points you raised here are exactly why I’m a little underwhelmed with the pick. It’s just as likely Matt Shaw or Jacob Gonzalez are no better than Schanuel - you could even say Schanuel’s potential discipline is elite enough to overcome any power/defensive limitations - but I still think the Angels could have achieved more value with the first pick by going with an infielder. Maybe someone under slot that would’ve allowed a better pick later in the draft. 

Just feels like a kinda disjointed draft strategy compared to last couple of years. Maybe they really, really believe in Schanuel but the track record for first-round 1B is not good.

Where does Schanuel play if Anthony Rendon is somehow healthy enough to be hanging around for $35m a year in ‘25 and ‘26 and he can’t take 3B anymore, and Trout is DHing? What if we hold onto Quero, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe and all are producing well? What if Walsh somehow regains his stroke? Does Schanuel just linger in AAA/part-time until a spot opens up? Do they bump him to OF? 

If there’s any comfort, it’s that perhaps they feel that strongly in him. 

[Blarg]

19 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Do you believe such a player with the same stats would have been available at the 11th pick?  That's kind of the rub.

1B in the first round tend to be low priority picks -- mostly because they are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.  You have to figure they really believe that OBP will translate, because he's not shown elite power.

I don't really know what to make of this draft -- I'm assuming there is a sense of immediacy at play due to the potential loss of Ohtani and the need for offense from a position that is very much in the air right now.

They are potentially looking to fill a need in the rotation, as well as starters at 1B, DH and the OF.   Arte may have seen the light, maybe he does want to "finish the job" but I can't see them going apeshit in FA next year -- so cheap help from within is a must.

If the Angels don't take him in the first round at the 11th pick he won't be around in the third round with the 11th pick. He probably doesn't even fall to the second round, his hit profile is just too high to ignore. Someone was going to nab him and it doesn't matter position when it is talent you are evaluating. 

I have zero hesitation about Schanuel getting picked first by the Angels. He hits the clay with a bat that the Angels need, one that can hit for high average and back that up with plate discipline that puts him on base via a walk. His metal bat power may take a year to translate to wood but after that I don't think anyone is going to have any complaints about his offense. 

Defensively I have to think if you are running Drury, Urshela, Renfroe out to first base when that is neither their primary or secondary position, unless Schanuel is Dunn (the human road cone) level defense you are going to be way ahead. 

[BTH]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Where does Schanuel play if Anthony Rendon is somehow healthy enough to be hanging around for $35m a year in ‘25 and ‘26 and he can’t take 3B anymore, and Trout is DHing? What if we hold onto Quero, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe and all are producing well? What if Walsh somehow regains his stroke? Does Schanuel just linger in AAA/part-time until a spot opens up? Do they bump him to OF? 

If all that happens, then the Angels would be in a fortunate position. Having “too many good players” is a good problem to have.

Rendon can barely stay healthy now. I have zero expectation of him being healthy in 2025 or 2026. And even if he’s healthy, I’m not sure how productive he’d even be at that point.

And the writing is on the wall for Walsh’s tenure with the Angels.

[T-angel]

If Schanuel signed at slot value as reported, and

1) considering the Angels draft in totality

2) and considering how talented this draft is,

this year will be a disaster unless he or some other draftee becomes a near All-star level contributor on the major league team. It will be reminiscent of 2019 (also, another deep class) that they totally blew when they took WIl WIlson in the 1st instead of guys like Corbin Carroll, George Kirby, or Gunnar Henderson . I pray to god that they are right this year. Grading their draft at this stage without seeing actual performance: C

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, T-angel said:

If Schanuel signed at slot value as reported, and

1) considering the Angels draft in totality

2) and considering how talented this draft is,

this year will be a disaster unless he or some other draftee becomes a near All-star level contributor on the major league team. It will be reminiscent of 2019 (also, another deep class) that they totally blew when they took WIl WIlson in the 1st instead of guys like Corbin Carroll, George Kirby, or Gunnar Henderson . I pray to god that they are right this year. Grading their draft at this stage without seeing actual performance: C

I was a little surprised to hear he went for full slot, given some comments that McIlvaine (I think?) made about a couple of their HS draftees. Curious to see how it all plays out.

[Angels in 2030]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Frank Thomas was the 7th pick of the 1989 draft. Mo Vaughn was drafted 23rd in the first round that year as well. I'm sure there are plenty more over the years but I am too lazy to look all of them up.

Thomas has the highest career WAR from that first round with Vaughn checking in at third. Let me ask you, would you have passed on Thomas or even Mo Vaughn for that matter?

 

You're seriously not referencing 1989 are you?  34 years ago.....34 lol oooh my.  I'm kind of embarrassed for you .  The fact you using something from 34 years ago to support it should tell you all that you need to know here.  

[Angels in 2030]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Frank Thomas is the best 1st round 1st baseman (7th overall in 1989).

McGwire (10th in 1984), Helton (8th in 1995), Will Clark (2nd in 1985), Lance Berkman, Mo Vaughn, Baines, Berkman, Pena, A-Gon.

 

Good first baseman are picked in the first round, It happens. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=1B&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

ok, seriously -- i'll let it go for a decade...maybe two....but come on Gramps.  Can we stay within the same millennium?!?  

[Dave Saltzer]

4 hours ago, Revad said:

Where in the draft do you suppose he would have gone if he was a 3b instead of 1b?

If he played 3B, I'd expect him to have gone in the top 5 or 6 picks. 

[totdprods]

Seriously, a better argument would be saying “time’s due for a HOF 1B to be drafted first round” instead of scraping back 20+ years…

Also, initially McGwire was primarily 3B, Baines and Berkman were OF.

Edited July 13, 2023 by totdprods

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Do you believe such a player with the same stats would have been available at the 11th pick?  That's kind of the rub.

1B in the first round tend to be low priority picks -- mostly because they are already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.  You have to figure they really believe that OBP will translate, because he's not shown elite power.

I don't really know what to make of this draft -- I'm assuming there is a sense of immediacy at play due to the potential loss of Ohtani and the need for offense from a position that is very much in the air right now.

They are potentially looking to fill a need in the rotation, as well as starters at 1B, DH and the OF.   Arte may have seen the light, maybe he does want to "finish the job" but I can't see them going apeshit in FA next year -- so cheap help from within is a must.

Would apeshit be resigning Ohtani and signing Yamamoto?

[Angelsfan1984]

14 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

If he played 3B, I'd expect him to have gone in the top 5 or 6 picks. 

But he doesn't play 3B...

[Revad]

11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would apeshit be resigning Ohtani and signing Yamamoto?

Yes that would describe it, and it would be a blast.

[Revad]

Just now, Angelsfan1984 said:

But he doesn't play 3B...

I see it as if he had any more positional value we wouldn’t have had a chance to draft him.  He’s that good of a hitter.

[Hubs]

32 minutes ago, Skips said:

ok, seriously -- i'll let it go for a decade...maybe two....but come on Gramps.  Can we stay within the same millennium?!?  

Gramps? Fuck right off with that bullshit. I posted a list. And I guarantee I am younger than you.

[Angelsfan1984]

40 minutes ago, Revad said:

I see it as if he had any more positional value we wouldn’t have had a chance to draft him.  He’s that good of a hitter.

Oh i agree completely. I think he's going to be a solid major league with his hitting ability. The only concern is that the Angels ultimately use 1B as a position of flexibility. That could just be because they havent had a solid 1b in years.