The 2013 Draft Class

[Second Base]

My latest from MWAH, I've spoke with two specific people to gather as much information as I could on these kids, the rest was a combination of digging and watching all the video I could access on them.  It's a fun little read.  So here's the rundown on your newest Angels.

 

http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/2013-articles/june/initial-impressions-of-the-angels-2013-draft-class.html

 

[Angel Oracle]

Thank you for the informative report   

[Dave Saltzer]

Good report Scott. Glad to know your equation LHP + Pulse = Time in Majors.

[Angel Oracle]

Green and Wesely could help, in time (5 years?), to make up for trading away Corbin, Skaggs, and another current sensation Torres. 

[Second Base]

LOL Thanks Dave.  It's full-proof isn't it?

[Angelsjunky]

Green and Middleton both seem like steals for when they were drafted. Would love to hear why Green fell so far.

[Angel Oracle]

Is there any further word on Green signing a contract?

[Second Base]

Talked to Green and his parents.  I won't jump into specifics, but the two sides are a relatively considerable amount of money apart, but it is Hunter's full intention to sign.  I think the Angels are hoping to get Hunter at a 2nd round cost, which is where they drafted him and the Green's are looking at getting 1st round money, which is where Hunter should've been drafted and where he'd undoubtedly be drafted in the future if he did decide to attend Kentucky.  

 

I can see both sides of the coin on this one, and honestly, I think the Angels need to pony up because they'd be hardpressed to ever find a pitcher with this upside that's this young and left-handed in the 2nd round.  I don't know exactly why teams passed over Green, but the more I look at him, the more I see someone that probably should've gone somewhere in the 15-25 range in the draft, not 50-whatever.  Bargain. 

[Dreams]

Thanks for the scoop Scotty!

 

As I understand it, MLB rules mandate that the Angels have a maximum of $2.9982M to spend on signing all their 2013 draft picks.  Halos still have 5 unsigned drafted pitcher, 3 of which are their top 6 picks.  These remaining picks are unsigned because they are presumably holding out for more cash.  But the Halos can't just sign them for whatever they want because of the MLB rules.  It would be awesome if they could sign them all, but I can understand why they need to not overpay on one player (Green) so they can try to lure the others (Morris, Nuss, and Goins) to sign.  

 

Any word on the status of signing these other drafted players?

[Angel Oracle]

With Green's potential, and the chance to make up for trading lefties Corbin, Skaggs, and Torres all away by having Green and Wesely in the fold, the Halos hopefully focus on Green, and then on signing one or two of the other three. 

 

But they do have until mid-July, and thus it's not panic time by any means, YET.

[Second Base]

The Angels can spend more money than was allotted, they'll just be severely taxed for it.  I don't see them going over though.  And of those that are currently holding out, honestly Green's the only one I'd be focused on.  

 

The holdouts are wagering on the fact that they'd get more money in a year or two by performing well in college and improving their draft stock.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.  

[Angel Oracle]

Plus wouldn't they lose a draft pick as well, if they go over total allottment?

[Inside Pitch]

Green isnt worth losing a 1st round pick over....

[Second Base]

I honestly wouldn't know if he was or not.  Too many factors to consider. How early would the Angels be picking, what's the class look like next year, will the Angels sign anyone in Free Agency that may cost a 1st round pick?  I can't answer any of those questions and therefore couldn't tell you that answer. 

 

What I do know is Hunter Green looks exceptional and he and his family want him to play Major League Baseball. 

[Inside Pitch]

I honestly wouldn't know if he was or not.  Too many factors to consider. How early would the Angels be picking, what's the class look like next year, will the Angels sign anyone in Free Agency that may cost a 1st round pick?  I can't answer any of those questions and therefore couldn't tell you that answer. 

 

What I do know is Hunter Green looks exceptional and he and his family want him to play Major League Baseball. 

 

Unless things have changed, HS left-handers have the lowest chance of making it to MLB of ANY position.   Would be foolhardy to risk a future number one on someone who is at best, an extreme long-shot regardless of talent level.   Risk a first rounder for a SURE thing..  fine, thats how guys like Josh Hamilton get 5 years 125 mil... but I can't see a MLB team looking to rebuild their farm system being willing to do that with a HS lefty.  BTW, the most recent information I could find for success and failure rates by position had LHPs as a whole, with the highest bust rate of any.. 79% and the lowest rate of reaching star status at 8%...  and this was among players considered true prospects.

 

The Angels don't have to look too far back for a reminder of how long the odds are.   Joe Torres was also 17, about the same size as Green and also a lefty.. only he had a much more impressive and even more dominating career in FL Vs significantly better competition.  Torres was so impressive his first season after being drafted that he was ranked as the 50th best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2001 season, a season he pitched as an 18 year old.  Injuries and ineffectiveness resulted in his still being no higher than High A at age 23.

 

Hunter Green is talented, but the odds are stacked against him and IMO, the Angels would be pretty stupid to blow a first rounder next year to sign him.  If indeed he wants to pitch then he best get used to the idea that MLB has capped what teams can spend.

[Second Base]

Angels have signed Hunter Green.  

 

- And in terms of physiccality and mechanics, there are miles between Torres and Green.  Torres had pretty good stuff, but was never nearly as smooth as Green.