Hypothetical Pipe Dream Question

[Torridd]

Where do you think the team will be now if Trout/Rendon/Ohtani were healthy all year and hitting on all cylinders? Would it make a big difference in the standings? Would it matter in the standings if any three of your choosing would be performing at their best?

[Blarg]

The pitching staff and defense still sucks and you don't reverse that curse by just adding a couple more hits. 

[PattyD22]

It’s just my opinion and I don’t have the analytical data to back it up but I feel like the Angels would be somewhere between 3-5 games above .500 in your scenario.  Even with all 3 of those guys “hitting on all cylinders” it wouldn’t address the 2 glaring weaknesses this team has:

1. Pitching, both starting and relieving and:

2. Questionable defensive strategies, I.e. the shift and the ability of teams to beat the Angels when they use it.

Both of these issues were key in several team losses, even when all 3 players were in the line up.

My best guess is somewhere around 40-37 to 42-35.

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by PattyD22

[Torridd]

Do you have three players that would make a difference?

[Justin]

It would certainly be hilarious* if Ohtani, Trout and Rendon combined for 25 WAR and the team finished 80-82. 

 

 

*to some people

[Dtwncbad]

The problem with the question is it is fair to say most other teams are not exactly “hitting on all cylinders”. . .

It is beyond rare that teams do not have significant slumps and injuries.

If you want me to imagine the Angels were free from slumps and injuries then shouldnt I imagine that other teams also could be free from slumps and injuries?

So the Angels would be right where they are.

The lackluster spot in the standings is not driven by any bad luck.

The Angels would be better in the standings with better pitchers.

[Angelsjunky]

6 hours ago, Torridd said:

Where do you think the team will be now if Trout/Rendon/Ohtani were healthy all year and hitting on all cylinders? Would it make a big difference in the standings? Would it matter in the standings if any three of your choosing would be performing at their best?

I think PattyD22 broke it down well, but even just taking a purely WAR-perspective, we've lost 2-3 WAR with Trout out and maybe that much with Rendon sucking. Given that Trout's replacements (Lagares, Ward) have been about replacement level overall, and All-Star Rendon has been replaced by Replacement Rendon doppelganger, and evens out: the team is probably about 4-6 wins worse than it would be, so between 41-36 and 43-34. Let's just call it 42-35, which would be 6 games out of 1st and 3 games behind the 2nd wildcard. In other words, they might be buyers (Adell + Barria + Jackson for Scherzer).

 

 

Edited June 29, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Jeff Fletcher]

20 hours ago, PattyD22 said:

Questionable defensive strategies, I.e. the shift and the ability of teams to beat the Angels when they use it

https://www.ocregister.com/2021/06/13/improved-angels-infield-defense-coincides-with-more-aggressive-shifting

[Blarg]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think PattyD22 broke it down well, but even just taking a purely WAR-perspective, we've lost 2-3 WAR with Trout out and maybe that much with Rendon sucking. Given that Trout's replacements (Lagares, Ward) have been about replacement level overall, and All-Star Rendon has been replaced by Replacement Rendon doppelganger, and evens out: the team is probably about 4-6 wins worse than it would be, so between 41-36 and 43-34. Let's just call it 42-35, which would be 6 games out of 1st and 3 games behind the 2nd wildcard. In other words, they might be buyers (Adell + Barria + Jackson for Scherzer).

 

 

Are you out of your freaking mind? Scherzer would be a two month rental. That would be that all time stupidly lopsided trade of all time. No one would ever talk about Napoli + Rivera for Wells ever again. 

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Are you out of your freaking mind? Scherzer would be a two month rental. That would be that all time stupidly lopsided trade of all time. No one would ever talk about Napoli + Rivera for Wells ever again. 

FWIW, Boras has said Scherzer will only waive a NTC if he is signing an extension. 

That deal makes some sense. Jackson could line up to replace Turner, Barria gives them some cheap innings...

Personally if Adell was moved I'd want someone with more of their career ahead of them than Scherzer, but not the worst idea. A Scherzer extension probably looks like Verlander's 2/$66m deal, and adding a $33m AAV deal, even short-term, is tricky with Rendon, Trout, and a potential Ohtani extension on the horizon. But you also don't take away from the MLB club in this deal, so you still could wind up competing this year too. 

2022 rotation: Scherzer, Ohtani, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers
2022 lineup: Upton LF, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Rendon 3B, Walsh 1B, Ward RF, ??? SS, Stassi C, Fletcher 2B
2022 bullpen: probably completely rebuilt, but that's where remaining money can go. Plus a few internal options.

Edited June 29, 2021 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch]

 

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

https://www.ocregister.com/2021/06/13/improved-angels-infield-defense-coincides-with-more-aggressive-shifting

I don't know the number of shifts but from June 14th when that article was updated through yesterday the defense had reverted to it's previous levels...   

Over a run difference between actual ERA and the FIP, xFIP.   Babip of .332.     SPs actually got their BB/9 under 3.00 during that stretch, the RP on the other hand have seen it rise to 5.34 so combined with their .338 BaBip that's a lot of free traffic and missed balls..  There's probably some chicken/egg argument mixed in there but whatever..   

On the season the numbers remain pretty putrid.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=11,d