Our competition for the Wild Card next season

[Erstad Grit]

Every team but tigers, Mariners, and Orioles

[JustATroutFan]

There's something that Trumbo, Calhoun, and Eppler all have in common. All three were mediocre at their job and who were/are part of this organization that are overrated by the fans.  Years from now, people will forget that Calhoun even existed as an Angel the same way as Trumbo did. If Eppler in no longer part of this organization by next year, the constant bashing of him will start. 

[fan_since79]

If the rotation doesn't pan out, forget it. We didn't get a front-line starter or two as we should have.

Rendon will help us avoid 90 losses, but other than that, marginal improvement. 10-15 games behind second WC.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

There's something that Trumbo, Calhoun, and Eppler all have in common. All three were mediocre at their job and who were/are part of this organization that are overrated by the fans.  Years from now, people will forget that Calhoun even existed as an Angel the same way as Trumbo did. If Eppler in no longer part of this organization by next year, the constant bashing of him will start. 

yawn.  When Eppler leaves we will be able to look at what he brought in and what he was able to keep.  We will look fondly at Trout staying for his entire career, we will look at the drafting of guys like Adell, Marsh, Canning, Adams and hopefully Thaiss.  We will look at Ohtani and Rendon.  When Dipoto left we had zero prospects to look forward to other than Newcomb who was traded for one of the better SS in the league (by Eppler).  So yea, we had 2014 to look at fondly from Dipoto, but you don't have to look deep into that season to realize even in that year he traded Clevinger for Pestano.  So no, you are not correct in your assumption.  

We all know what Eppler's shortcomings are, what you and others like you ignore what he has done well and you explain it away.  

[Angels_Fan]

Eppler needs to add a good SP (someone like Gray, Syndergaard, Clevinger, etc.)  before this team can be considered a true postseason contender. It’s possible that they can make the postseason with what they currently have, but they’d also need a lot of things to go right.

[Docwaukee]

Boston will be very good. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

15 hours ago, wopphil said:

Agreed. The talent is on the roster to win 100 games. They just need to play to their abilities and stay healthy.

This man needs to be drug tested.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

38 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Boston will be very good. 

I don't expect them to have another bad year. They got off to a bad start and never recovered. They were 5-14 against New York. I don't expect a repeat.

Speaking of dominance - I was just looking at the AL team-vs.-team records last year, and the Indians were 18-1 against Detroit. The Tigers had one win against four teams, and they were 0-6 against the Rangers. Strangely, they were 3-3 against the Yankees.

[Justin]

1 hour ago, JustATroutFan said:

If Eppler in no longer part of this organization by next year, the constant bashing of him will start. 

That made me laugh out loud. 

I can't wait for people to start saying negative things about Eppler. All he's done is get a free pass the last couple of weeks.

[Stradling]

22 minutes ago, SoPas Angel said:

That made me laugh out loud. 

I can't wait for people to start saying negative things about Eppler. All he's done is get a free pass the last couple of weeks.

From whom?

[mmc]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Boston will be very good. 

Hard to tell.  If they trade Mookie and Sale/Price or both without getting any real MLB ready talent back, I don’t see them being better than last season 

[Justin]

40 minutes ago, Stradling said:

From whom?

I was being sarcastic. I know that often doesn't translate well in writing but I took a chance.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

40 minutes ago, SoPas Angel said:

I was being sarcastic. I know that often doesn't translate well in writing but I took a chance.

I have fallen into that trap a few times as well. Sarcasm isn't always obvious in print.

[Second Base]

I think the fortunate position the Angels find themselves in is that every Wild Card contender is pretty flawed at this point. But let me narrow it down a little before we begin.

1. The Yankees, Twins and Astros will Leon their respective divisions. The Yankees are the best team in baseball, on paper. The Astros will never win 107 games again. Every team in their division had gotten stronger, except the M's, they lost Cole, they are over the kitty tax and Verlander and Greinke won't be young forever. But they'll still win 95 games. And the Twins, they have just enough itching and an insane amount of offense to win 95 games.

-------

That leaves the following.....

1. Oakland A's - Still a good team, with good young arms on the way. But it'll take a little while for guys like Luzardo and Puk to fully adjust. Just ask guys like Sean Manea and Jose Berrios. Having elite stuff doesn't make you an ace anymore. Without significant moves, figure on them winning 90-95 games.

2. The Cleveland Indians - Have you ever wondered why a supposed contender has been as willing as they have been to just drop it and trade all they're good players? Something isn't adding up. The team is largely out of money and is looking for ways to cut payroll and reload on the fly. They traded Kluber, and are likely going to trade Lindor and Clevinger in the next year or so. They have good young pitching breaking in but lack much of a farm system. Expect 85-90 wins.

3. Toronto Blue Jays - Great young taken in the infield, and they're pegging together a rotation. They aren't there yet, but give them two more years. For 2020, I expect 80-85 wins.

4. Tampa Bay Rays - Probably the most complete and cost efficient organization in baseball. Even after all their FO personnel get poached, they still build and win. This is a 95-100 win team.

5. Texas Rangers - They're doing everything in their power to build a team with some hype ahead of their new stadium being built. Fact is, they got Kluber for cheap, and since desperate teams like the Angels weren't topping that offer, that tells me teams aren't convinced Kluber is still the same ace he was. I don't think Texas' bullpen is great, their rotation has some depth but isn't elite. Their lineup is goid, particularly when Gallo is playing, but end result here is an 80-85 win team.

6 Chicago White Sox - The darlings of the off-season. Getting Kopech back is cool, but I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. He want a perfect prospect to begin with. Keuchel was a good pick up, but again, he's a #4 starter. And now he plays on a team full of those, though to be fair with guys like Reynaldo Lopez, they could get a lot better. The offense shows a ton of promise, but the bullpen doesn't, not yet anyway. This is an exciting 80-85 win team. They'll be better in 2021 and onward though.

-----

And finally, we reach the Angels. Right now, with no other moves, most seem to agree that this is an 85-90 win team. I don't believe for a second they won't add another starter and another catcher. Will those two options be good? Meh.... Will the Angels be forced to overpay? Highly likely. But the end result here is I think you're going to see a, 88-93 win team. 

--------

So in conclusion, I think this is going to be a dogfihht between the Angels and A's for that #2 WC spot with the A's rightfully being favored to win that one. But in 2021 and beyond, the Angels farm will begin paying higher dividends and I think we'll see the following arc...

2020: 88-93 wins.

2021: 90-95 wins.

2022 - 2025: 95+ wins.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 12/25/2019 at 6:31 PM, mymerlincat said:

As it stands, I don’t think there is any way this team is better than the Rays.  Glasnow, Snell, and Morton are better than any starter on this team, I think their bullpen is much better, and their offense is good in their own right as well.

The upside for Ohtani is he can be as good as just about anyone in baseball. If he can come back from TJ and be the pitcher that beat Oakland twice in a week, then we have an Ace after all.

[mmc]

35 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

The upside for Ohtani is he can be as good as just about anyone in baseball. If he can come back from TJ and be the pitcher that beat Oakland twice in a week, then we have an Ace after all.

Ok, even if he hits his upside this season, I don’t think we’re better than the Rays

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

30 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

Ok, even if he hits his upside this season, I don’t think we’re better than the Rays

You said none of our pitchers were as good as theirs, while all I said was Ohtani could be better than theirs if he has fully recovered from TJ. I never said our rotation was better or that the Angels were better. Having said that our offense is going to score a LOT of runs next year.

[Claude]

On 12/26/2019 at 9:08 AM, SoPas Angel said:

I just think people should be prepared for how good Oakland is going to be this year. The assumption in the OP is that the Astros are the favorites in the West and that Oakland is going to be competing for the WC again. I see Oakland as being where Houston was 3 years ago: their tanking (from '15-'17) is about to pay off. Which makes Houston the competition for the WC. 

The A’s are going to be competitive for the same cost of Trout, Pujols and Rendon. 

[tdawg87]

5 hours ago, RendZone said:

The A’s are going to be competitive for the same cost of Trout, Pujols and Rendon. 

[eligrba]

On 12/26/2019 at 11:37 AM, fan_since79 said:

If the rotation doesn't pan out, forget it. We didn't get a front-line starter or two as we should have.

Rendon will help us avoid 90 losses, but other than that, marginal improvement. 10-15 games behind second WC.

Which front line starter or 2 should have Eppler signed?  After reading the backstories for the pitchers available, I am not sure which ones would have signed with the Angels if they were offered the exact contract they signed for.  Maybe Keuchel?  Maybe Ryu? Wheeler wanted to play on the east coast.  Strasburg wanted to stay in DC. Cole wanted to be a Yankee.

I think it is going to work out.  This appears to be the beginning of the winning window and I think it is a wise decision to not jeopardize the entire window of opportunity with large contracts for players on the backside of their careers.

[Rally Gorilla]

If the team makes no further moves to improve the roster:   82 Wins, and another year on the sidelines.

If we can bring in some guys who can be reasonably expected to play mid-level at C and another mid-level SP:    A chance for mid-90's Wins, a fun to watch team, and a real shot at a WC.  

[Stradling]

21 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

If the team makes no further moves to improve the roster:   82 Wins, and another year on the sidelines.

If we can bring in some guys who can be reasonably expected to play mid-level at C and another mid-level SP:    A chance for mid-90's Wins, a fun to watch team, and a real shot at a WC.  

This “Math” is silly. You’re basically saying Chirinos and a healthy year from Alex Wood (3.4 ERA) would give us 12 more wins.  

[Rally Gorilla]

30 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This “Math” is silly. You’re basically saying Chirinos and a healthy year from Alex Wood (3.4 ERA) would give us 12 more wins.  

The team was wildly unbalanced in 2019.    We had black holes at 1B, C, and SP.      Contributions from other positions were less likely to translate into W's....especially from terrible SP and an exhausted BP.   The overall effect is demoralizing for the whole team.

Now, in 2020, I think we've already helped ourselves with the additions of Bundy and Tehran, who can reasonably expected to perform at higher-than-dumpter-fire levels.   We've also added a real-deal star 3B.     I also assume Maddon won't accept such bad production from 1B in 2020, giving guys like LaStella a chance to up production there.     I'm also assuming/hoping that we have a plan for RF until Adell earns that spot.  But I don't see any in-house solutions at catcher and I believe the rotation can seriously use at least one more arm that can reasonably be expected to perform at mid-levels.     So, IMHO, if we don't bring in two catchers and another SP, the team will remain unbalanced and many of the contributions from the rest of the team will be wasted.     If we get more balanced, opposing pitchers are going to have to face Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani with the game on the line a lot more often....and that will translate to more W's, a more energized team,  and a heck of a lot of fun.

[Docwaukee]

On 12/26/2019 at 1:01 PM, mymerlincat said:

Hard to tell.  If they trade Mookie and Sale/Price or both without getting any real MLB ready talent back, I don’t see them being better than last season 

I don't think they'll trade Betts or Sale and even if they find a taker for Price's contract, it won't hurt them that much.  They'll just go out and sign a couple guys like Alex Wood, Rich Hill and or Ivan Nova who can make up the difference or very close to it.  I think that's what is holding up a David Price off load.  They're probably willing to eat some money but when they eat it is the key for them.  They'll want to absorb it at the end of the contract and have the acquiring team take on most of the money owed early on so they can get under the CBT threshold and have some room to sign a couple more players to remain competitive this year.  

If they get a team to take on price's 32m in 2020, they are close enough to the take threshold that they can comfortably sign another player and still only pay a small penalty.  Then in 2021, they will easily fall back below and reset.  

Yet the acquiring team will want to do the same and defer the main portion of the cost till the end.  

Boston had an off year in 2019 and they were -5 in differential to boot.  I probably still favor the yankees to win the division, but they got some career performances that I just don't see happening again even if they are healthy.  

[Stradling]

I heard that if we were going to be taking on a big chunk of salary that we’d more likely to do it prior to the 1st for 2019 tax purposes.  That isn’t to say anything will happen today, just that the chances drop a bit starting tomorrow.  Or that if we took on salary we’d be willing to take less after the new year.