Homegrown Starters

[Dtwncbad]

I would love to hear people’s opinions on which Angel prospects they believe can emerge as UPPER HALF of a major league rotation.

We are all getting a good look at Canning so I am really asking about others.

Which prospects in the system have the upside to be a strong #3 or better?

[UndertheHalo]

Closest to the majors ? No one that is mid rotation or better imo.  Patrick Sandoval is at AAA but he seems to be a lower rotation type.  

Chris Rodríguez probably has the highest upside, the issue with him is that he can’t stay healthy.  He had surgery again this year, I think that if this one doesn’t resolve his issues then we might have to just forget about him. 

Jose Soriano has possibly a 70 grade fastball.  He’s filthy but has command issues and is at low A.  So he’s a way off.  But another high ceiling type guy.  

The prep arm they took in the 3rd round this year is going to take a lot of development but is impressive and may be a mid rotation type or better.  Again, he’s in the lower minors so who knows. His name is Jack Kochanowicz. 

Maybe Aaron Hernandez at IE could be a type of mid rotation arm.  

The Angels drafted a ton of pitchers after the  first 2 or 3 rounds in both 2018 and 2019 so there’s a bunch of guys that are in the lower minors.  It’s tough  to tell with those types.

Edited August 2, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Angel Oracle]

2018 4th round pick Kyle Bradish (age 22), despite pitching at a 3500 foot altitude in college (Las Cruces), had a ridiculously good college career.  

He's got a solid arm (93 Ks in 74 innings in first pro season so far, starting off in A+ ball already), but some command issues (38 BBs). 

Can touch mid 90s, potentially a really good cutter like slider, a 76-80 mph curve, and occasional changeup.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-bradish-680694?stats=career-r-pitching-milb

 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

C rod has the highest ceiling and the highest potential to be a top of the rotation arm. His injury history is a concern. 

Soriano is another guy, with a upper 90s Fb, a Breaking ball with plus potential and an ok change. he needs to refine his command to reach his potential as 2/3 or he a closer. i think he may be promoted to A+ if he return from the Il.

Bradish needs to refine his command, or else i see him  more of a 4, with the upside of 3. 

Aaron hernandez has upside, but he a Bp arm to me. 

 

[floplag]

How many legit front of the rotation guys are in each draft, 2, 3 ?  
You pick in the latter half youre not getting those guys.
Sure some of them make it from the latter half, late developers and such, but the odds are much lower.
Playing 500 baseball doesnt get you the homegrown stars as often as tanking does, which is why so many are tanking instead of trying to compete with the money franchises.

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Closest to the majors ? No one that is mid rotation or better imo.  Patrick Sandoval is at AAA but he seems to be a lower rotation type.  

Chris Rodríguez probably has the highest upside, the issue with him is that he can’t stay healthy.  He had surgery again this year, I think that if this one doesn’t resolve his issues then we might have to just forget about him. 

Jose Soriano has possibly a 70 grade fastball.  He’s filthy but has command issues and is at low A.  So he’s a way off.  But another high ceiling type guy.  

The prep arm they took in the 3rd round this year is going to take a lot of development but is impressive and may be a mid rotation type or better.  Again, he’s in the lower minors so who knows. His name is Jack Kochanowicz. 

Maybe Aaron Hernandez at IE could be a type of mid rotation arm.  

The Angels drafted a ton of pitchers after the  first 2 or 3 rounds in both 2018 and 2019 so there’s a bunch of guys that are in the lower minors.  It’s tough  to tell with those types.

I think we'll see Sandoval either make a big jump next year or end up as a back end starter or even pen guy.  His stuff is actually very good.  Good enough to be that strong #3 mentioned but his command isn't good and that has gotten exposed at high altitude.  I think this year is a good learning experience for him.  I think they're also a chance of him being a good high leverage reliever where his velo could tick up in shorter stints.  

Agree that Rodriguez, Soriano, Kochanowicz all belong on that list.  

Another guy with an outside shot is Oliver Ortega.  The velo is there with the fastball and his best secondary pitch (slider i think) is supposedly plus.  They say he could end up with an avg change so if that develops and he garners a little more control, he might be really good.  

Hernandez is another guy that could make a big jump although early returns aren't overly promising.  

Yan, Acquino, Franco are others with some potential but a long way to go.  

Swanda is another guy to keep and eye on although he went down with TJ earlier this year while in A ball.  

Other guys with very low odds of getting to that level but have some potential are Jerryell Rivera, Cole Duensing, William Holmes (formerly Will English), Van Scoyoc, Nunan and I presume there's a couple from the 2019 draft and intl that I'm just not aware of.  

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

How many legit front of the rotation guys are in each draft, 2, 3 ?  
You pick in the latter half youre not getting those guys.
Sure some of them make it from the latter half, late developers and such, but the odds are much lower.
Playing 500 baseball doesnt get you the homegrown stars as often as tanking does, which is why so many are tanking instead of trying to compete with the money franchises.

Baseball needs to solve the tanking issue.  

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Baseball needs to solve the tanking issue.  

Agreed, 100%, its hurting the sport more than the analytics obsession. 
I saw Fletcher suggest sandwich picks for those above 500 or other ideas to prevent it or at least encourage teams to try.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Agreed, 100%, its hurting the sport more than the analytics obsession. 
I saw Fletcher suggest sandwich picks for those above 500 or other ideas to prevent it or at least encourage teams to try.

That’s what it was.  I knew he tweeted something about it.  

How bout something like the team that doesn’t make the playoffs, but had the best 2nd half record gets the #1 pick, and so on.  Second half record could be after the All Star game or you could literally take the final 81 games of the season.  You could then give the teams with the worst records a sandwich pick, so they can build a roster.  But we know the top picks are usually more valuable than two guys in the top 35.  

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

That’s what it was.  I knew he tweeted something about it.  

How bout something like the team that doesn’t make the playoffs, but had the best 2nd half record gets the #1 pick, and so on.  Second half record could be after the All Star game or you could literally take the final 81 games of the season.  You could then give the teams with the worst records a sandwich pick, so they can build a roster.  But we know the top picks are usually more valuable than two guys in the top 35.  

I like the sandwich pick idea.  

Second half records are tough because rebuilding teams need the flexibility to allow their young players to play yet not perform at their max potential.  You can't punish them for that 

[floplag]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

That’s what it was.  I knew he tweeted something about it.  

How bout something like the team that doesn’t make the playoffs, but had the best 2nd half record gets the #1 pick, and so on.  Second half record could be after the All Star game or you could literally take the final 81 games of the season.  You could then give the teams with the worst records a sandwich pick, so they can build a roster.  But we know the top picks are usually more valuable than two guys in the top 35.  

 

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I like the sandwich pick idea.  

Second half records are tough because rebuilding teams need the flexibility to allow their young players to play yet not perform at their max potential.  You can't punish them for that 

Yeah not sure how to do that unless you do something like giving the teams that just missed the playoffs first crack or extra picks to reward the effort.  Maybe instead of worst records base it from the top down on non playoff teams, but im sure thats not quite fair either.   Its hard to assume teams are tanking, but when its obvious, they should not be rewarded for it and those who make the effort should be. 

[Second Base]

 If we're talking likely outcome,...

Sandoval - Back end starter with three workable pitches. Oddly enough, he works better at 89-90 than he has at 92-93. Unless he improves his command and movement at the higher velo, his ceiling is pretty limited to the back end of the rotation.

Hernandez - He has three plus offerings and one above average pitch. His issue has been pitch selection and location. His delivery still requires effort and it throws off his command. There's front of the rotation potential here, but in all likelihood, he'll end up being a dangerous relief weapon. 

Bradish - He has mid rotation upside but he's losing it in Advanced A Ball after a promising start. I'm not sure why. My guess is he ends up as a long reliever 

Beasley - inconsistent velocity but quality pitches. He'll be a reliever.

Ortega - Great two pitch combo but lack of a third offering will make him a reliever, a very good one at that.

Rodriguez - Has all the necessary tools to pitch at the front of a rotation. His best comp is former Angel Mike Clevinger, who we will face today. Just needs a healthy back, but the good news is that it isn't his arm. If he's healthy, he will be at the front of the rotation.

Soriano - Has front of the rotation starter written all over him. Got him for cheap in the DR before he got a growth spurt and subsequent velocity increase. By the time he was 18, one scout said if he were American, he'd have gone first round, easy. The plus pitches, but he's still unrefined and young, growing into his suddenly tall, lean frame. Broad shoulders though, so he may only add good weight. If his command gets better, as I think it will, then he will also be at the front of a rotation.

Yan - I think he's a Jose Suarez type, which I know Suarez hasn't looked great yet, but eventually he will be a solid #3-4. Suarez needs to refine his command, but he will soon. Likely outcome here is a back end starter.

Aquino too early to tell, but lots of potential. Same with Van Scoyoc and Rivera.

Kochanowicz Is the diamond in the rough here. Scouts believe that if he didn't sign, he'd have gone top half of the first round in three years. Keep your eye on him. Front of the rotation potential.

 

[totdprods]

As of now, here's how I'd project them out, in terms of best-case or most-realistic scenario...

• Griffin Canning: A safe #2-#3
• Jaime Barria: Durable, dependable #4-#5. Will have times when nothing goes his way, other times when everything does. I think of someone like Jon Garland's career as a best-case.
• Jose Suarez: Lots of early struggles in career limit him to a #3-#4, eventually with a brief peak as a #2-#3 for a season or two. 
• Patrick Sandoval: Personally, I think he's our multi-inning LH RP option as soon as next year, perhaps with a Sept. audition in rotation. 
• Matt Ball: #6 Nick Tropeano/JC Ramirez replacement
• Adrian De Horta: #6 Nick Tropeano/JC Ramirez replacement, might also work in a good Noe Ramirez role
• Luis Madero: Might get a DFA at end of year if he doesn't turn it around, otherwise I think they'll work him in as a multi-inning RP in the vein of Pena/Ramirez
• Jeremy Beasley: #6 Nick Tropeano replacement, maybe a Noe Ramirez-type long-relief candidate
• Andrew Wantz: One of the more interesting arms - probably destined for a more true RP role, but if they stick with him in the rotation I think he has #3 ceiling in time
• Jesus Castillo: Noe Ramirez-role candidate
• Denny Brady: See Jeremy Beasley.
• Kyle Bradish: #3-#5, he has the stuff to put together a solid career and should advance quickly enough to at least hold down a back-of-rotation spot.
• Aaron Hernandez: To me, best served in a relief role.
• Oliver Ortega: If he maintains this even a little bit in AA, he'll be in the mix as a #3 and in the bigs in no time, even if at first as a multi-inning guy. 
• Cristopher Molina: #6 Nick Tropeano-type.
• Cooper Criswell: Solid, steady #4-#5, a la Jaime Barria
• Chris Rodriguez: Probably our truest #1 candidate, but unfortunately, I think his frequent injuries are going to keep him from making it. Maybe a reliever, Alex Meyer-style. 
• Jose Soriano: I think he'll ascend quickly, possibly getting his first start as early as 2021, and has #2-#3 potential.
• Hector Yan: Biggest wild card on the list - he isn't pitching efficiently enough or with enough control for me to feel he'll stick in the rotation, but every start gets a little better. Probably a multi-inning RP, but if he harnesses things, a #2-#3 ceiling, Jose Suarez floor.
• Cole Duensing: Think control will ultimately limit him to a true relief role.
• Kyle Tyler: Don't think he'll be able to maintain this in AA/AAA, but could work in a #6 Nick Tropeano-type career.
• Robinson Pina: I'm high on Pina's ceiling, and ironically, think he could result in something very close to Felix Pena.
• Luis Alvarado: Another arm that fits somewhere in the Noe Ramirez - Nick Tropeano range.
• Stiward Aquino: Jose Soriano 2.0

I'll withhold judgement on the other guys until they see more action, but Kochanowicz has a lot of potential. 

[totdprods]

25 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Bradish - He has mid rotation upside but he's losing it in Advanced A Ball after a promising start. I'm not sure why. My guess is he ends up as a long reliever 

He had a poor start last night and ended June with a couple stinkers, but July was solid - 5 G/4 GS, 3.74 ERA, 21.2 IP, 16 hits, 8 walks, 28 K. 

[Angel Oracle]

40 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He had a poor start last night and ended June with a couple stinkers, but July was solid - 5 G/4 GS, 3.74 ERA, 21.2 IP, 16 hits, 8 walks, 28 K. 

July was definitely better, command wise.    This is his first pro season, after being shut down following the draft (an increasing thing with newly drafted from college pitchers).  Not bad overall stats for that and for being in A+ ball at age 22

Have C-Rod's injury troubles been mainly with his back since signing with the Halos?

[Vlad27Trout27]

A little more in detail;

Canning: 2/3

Barria: 3-5 . he's going to live and die with his command

Suarez: 3/4: i really do think he needs to add a cutter or something into his arsenal to go against righties or a need to refine his Curve/Slider more. He actually has a really high rate on that Curve

Sandoval: 4/5 or a long reliever. But there still is a good upside if he can refine his command.: 

Madero: 4/5 or Long Reliever

Bradish: 4/5. high upside, needs to refine his command and his 3rd pitch

Hernandez: Bp arm

Rodriguez: a number 1, health a major concern

Soriano: 2/3 or Closer : 

 

[Second Base]

I'm not exactly sure where people are getting this notion that Rodriguez's upside is greater than Soriano. Soriano's got the better velocity, Rod had better movement. Rod's slider has harder break, but Soriano commands his better, and has more sweeping movement. Both change ups are workable. Rod's motion is more violent, Soriano is much more composed.

[2112]

Looking at all of your predictions gives me a better feeling going forward.

If the Angels can, in house have several 3's and 4's with hopefully a 2 they should do pretty good over the next few years.

Here's to something breaking our way for a change.

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Between Soriano and Rodriguez, both have dominating stuff and high potential. Personally i feel like rod's stuff and Command is much better than Soriano. It's was reported early this season, that one of Rod's offspeed was a grade 70 pitch, and another that rated as 60 grade pitch. While Soriano, has that big fastball, plus slider and an average Change, his command still needs work. 

This is what differentiate them to me; If Rodriguez is healthy, which seems to be a big if, he has the ability to soar thru the system really quickly. But he will still need to add stamina for that to happen, but i really do believe his stuff is that good. With Soriano, he still has the ability to move quick, but that command may slow him down 

For both guys, either they'll be a top of the rotation arms, dominate Bp arms or health become a issue.

Don't get me wrong, i'm high on Soriano. His pitch arsenal, body type and mechanism have allows made be compare him to Luis Severino. Will he reach that Ceiling? I do not know but his stuff speaks volume.

 

Also on another note, having a look at Kyle Bradish and his numbers, plus the stuff. he reminds me a bit of Michael Fulmer. I don't expect bradish to be Ace level Fulmer , but the 2017 version of him. Where he had an ERA around 3.83 in 164 inning. 

 

I also can not wait to see Jack Kochanowiz get on a mound next season, Heard a lot of positive things.