#1 and #2 Starters (2019 elephant in the room)

[Docwaukee]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, the problem the OP points out is something I've also mentioned for awhile. The Angels have some solid mid-rotation guys and a handful of back-end rotation guys, no truly dominant starters - except for Ohtani. But as someone pointed out to me, only a few teams have Max Scherzers and Chris Sales. In fact, consider the number of 5+ fWAR pitchers in each of the last five years:

2018: 11 (deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Corbin, Cole, Bauer, Severino, Nola, Kluber, Carrasco)

2017: 7 (Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Severino, Strasburg, Carrasco, Greinke)

2016: 8 (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Scherzer, Cueto, Verlander, Porcello, Kluber)

2015: 13 (Kershaw, Arrieta, Price, Scherzer, Sale, Keuchel, Greinke, Kluber, Cole, Archer, Bumgarner, deGrom, Lester)

2014: 11 (Kershaw, Kluber, Hernandez, Price, Hughes, Lester, Zimmermann, Scherzer, Sale, Quintana, Arrieta)

So that's a total of 26 different pitchers who have had 5+ fWAR seasons in the last five; 10 per year, or 5 unique ones per year.

And consider the number of pitchers with multiple 5 fWAR seasons within those five years:

5: Scherzer, Kluber

4: Sale

3: Kershaw

2: Verlander, Lester, Arrieta, Cole, Severino, Greinke, Carrasco, deGrom

(As an aside, Kluber is hugely underrated. He leads the majors in fWAR over the last five years with 31.0, just ahead of Kershaw and Scherzer at 30.8, Sale at 30.5).

So who are truly dominant, aces? Schezer, Kluber, and Sale, obviously (especialy considering Sale's one year not at 5+ was 4.9). Kershaw is declining and may not be in the same category - but we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Verlander has revived his career; Severino has only been full time for a couple years and very dominant. Same with Carrasco. Nola and Bauer just broke out. DeGrom was so good it is hard not to include him, but needs consistency. 

So that's 10 guys who are either true aces or look probable to be true aces. But then it starts becoming questionable. Strasburg He's inconsistent. Corbin? We need to see if he can maintain those numbers with reduced velocity. Cole? Similar, I believe. Greinke, Arrieta, Lester? Old. The rest are mostly very good pitchers with some kind of tarnish (Syndergaard), or maybe they just had a really good year (e.g. Porcello).

So I would say that at any given time, there are about 10 true #1s, or truly dominant starters in the majors, maybe another 5-10 who are borderline, and another 5-10 who might have a #1 type season in them, but are really just good #2s (e.g. David Price types).

Shohei Ohtani has the ability to be in that group of ten, but is unlikely to do so on a consistent basis, if only because he's unlikely to start more than 25-28 starts in a year.

Those 5 win season are rare but there are a ton of really good 4 WAR seasons in there that I would take as well.  I would be happy with someone who could function as a true number one even if they're not some elite ace and a lot of seasons in the 3.5 to 5 WAR range fit that criteria.  It's why Keuchel is at least somewhat tempting and why I fight with the fact that FA contracts for guys just like him have been almost exclusively busts in the past.  Can he produce 10 WAR over a 5 yrs deal?  I kinda doubt it.   

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

How about if we ignore the injuries and simply decide a healthy Shoemaker is not really all that exciting in the first place.  He certainly is worthy of a rotation spot on a team, but when you have a boatload of #4 types, the project is to replace guys like Shoemaker with better pitchers. 

Go right ahead.  And we might pay $9 million for a guy that will have the same numbers.  

[Angelsjunky]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Those 5 win season are rare but there are a ton of really good 4 WAR seasons in there that I would take as well.  I would be happy with someone who could function as a true number one even if they're not some elite ace and a lot of seasons in the 3.5 to 5 WAR range fit that criteria.  It's why Keuchel is at least somewhat tempting and why I fight with the fact that FA contracts for guys just like him have been almost exclusively busts in the past.  Can he produce 10 WAR over a 5 yrs deal?  I kinda doubt it.   

Yes, absolutely - and my thoughts on Keuchel. But I also have a hard time with the idea of giving him a nine figure contract.

But I do think he'll out-perform that 10 WAR over five years. But it will be close...something like 3, 3, 2, 2, 1 (in some order). That's pretty underwhelming, though. In the end I'd avoid him as I don't want to spend that kind of money unless we're talking 4+ WAR (#2 starter). Keuchel is a #3, imo.

[Dtwncbad]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Go right ahead.  And we might pay $9 million for a guy that will have the same numbers.  

And Scherzer could blow out his elbow.

I get your point but I am focused on attempting to have more upside going into a year while you are focusing on something within the range of a unknown outcome at the end of a year.

You don't NOT try to upgrade from a Matt Shoemaker because it is possible that a "better" pitcher could underperform.  Any pitcher can underperform, including. . . .Shoemaker.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

How about if we ignore the injuries and simply decide a healthy Shoemaker is not really all that exciting in the first place.  He certainly is worthy of a rotation spot on a team, but when you have a boatload of #4 types, the project is to replace guys like Shoemaker with better pitchers. 

Than replace him with this so called better option.  I am not saying shoemaker was a great option.  However we haven't replaced him yet.

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Than replace him with this so called better option.  I am not saying shoemaker was a great option.  However we haven't replaced him yet.

why replace him?  

I think what he Angels are essentially telling us is that they already have.  His impact on the rotation is likely to be similar to that of Trop, Pena, Canning or Suarez. At least that is what they are saying with their actions.  All four of those guys are cheap.  Why spend $4 mil to add a 5th guy to that mix?  

If they truly though of him as a rotation candidate and 4th/5th starter then $4 mil would have been cheap for that.  

Clearly, we need rotation help and my guess is that we'll get some.  

If you held billy down and asked him who is replacing Matt Shoemaker, he would cite someone like Dillon Peters who is on the depth chart behind the four guys mentioned above after we acquired him via trade when he was DFA'd from Miami in Nov.  Don't get me wrong, Shoe seems like a great guy.  He's easy to root for and I still want him to do well.  I really do wish his value was greater, but it's not even though we want it to be.  

BTW, Peters, who is entering his age 26 season has the following scouting report from Sickels prior to the 2017 season:

7) Dillon Peters, LHP, Grade C+: Age 24, 10^th round pick from University of Texas in 2014; posted 2.38 ERA with 105/20 K/BB in 129 innings between High-A and Double-A; undersized even for a lefty at 5-9 but there’s some zip in the arm with 92-94 MPH fastball and a solid curve; also has a decent change-up and throws strikes with everything; quite polished with good mound presence and make-up; potential number four starter. ETA 2018.

while the build and the fact that he's a lefty aren't the same, his projection, make-up, mound presence and velocity sound pretty familiar.  

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

why replace him?  

I think what he Angels are essentially telling us is that they already have.  His impact on the rotation is likely to be similar to that of Trop, Pena, Canning or Suarez. At least that is what they are saying with their actions.  All four of those guys are cheap.  Why spend $4 mil to add a 5th guy to that mix?  

If they truly though of him as a rotation candidate and 4th/5th starter then $4 mil would have been cheap for that.  

Clearly, we need rotation help and my guess is that we'll get some.  

If you held billy down and asked him who is replacing Matt Shoemaker, he would cite someone like Dillon Peters who is on the depth chart behind the four guys mentioned above after we acquired him via trade when he was DFA'd from Miami in Nov.  Don't get me wrong, Shoe seems like a great guy.  He's easy to root for and I still want him to do well.  I really do wish his value was greater, but it's not even though we want it to be.  

BTW, Peters, who is entering his age 26 season has the following scouting report from Sickels prior to the 2017 season:

7) Dillon Peters, LHP, Grade C+: Age 24, 10^th round pick from University of Texas in 2014; posted 2.38 ERA with 105/20 K/BB in 129 innings between High-A and Double-A; undersized even for a lefty at 5-9 but there’s some zip in the arm with 92-94 MPH fastball and a solid curve; also has a decent change-up and throws strikes with everything; quite polished with good mound presence and make-up; potential number four starter. ETA 2018.

while the build and the fact that he's a lefty aren't the same, his projection, make-up, mound presence and velocity sound pretty familiar.  

The main problem with this is that neither Canning or Suarez are projected to open 19 in the majors so were kinda putting cart before horse including them thus much of the concern. 

[Stradling]

26 minutes ago, floplag said:

The main problem with this is that neither Canning or Suarez are projected to open 19 in the majors so were kinda putting cart before horse including them thus much of the concern. 

This organization under Eppler has let players abilities decide when they are in the majors.   If Canning is ready, and he very well could be ready, then he will Be pitching in the bigs.  

[Docwaukee]

36 minutes ago, floplag said:

The main problem with this is that neither Canning or Suarez are projected to open 19 in the majors so were kinda putting cart before horse including them thus much of the concern. 

why does that matter?  

are you working under the assumption that the off season is over and that we won't add any starters?  If so, then there is no point in discussing this.  

the other two guys who Shoe is most redundant with (Pena and Trop) both have options and a total cost of 2m.  It's most likely that neither will be on the opening day mlb roster.  

they had to make a decision on whether to offer him arb.  If they do, it's pretty much guaranteed that they're paying someone who at best is anywhere from 6th to 8th on the depth chart 4 mil when they've got that covered paying 2m.  If we kept him and add two starters, we'd have to put him in the pen because he has no options.  The angels determined there were better ways to spend 4m than do that.  

So they'll call up Pena or Trop if they need someone else to start.  

Right now, our AAA rotation is probably Cannings, Suarez, Trop, Pena and Peters with additional depth of Luis Pena, Forrest Snow, Luke Farrell and so on so forth.  

[Stradling]

I doubt Barria was projected to be a starter last year, that worked out pretty well.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I doubt Barria was projected to be a starter last year, that worked out pretty well.  

he was on the depth chart and started at AAA.  In all likelihood, they probably thought he'd get some starts at the major league level just like they've already said they anticipate Canning and Suarez contributing to the major league club in 2019 even though they'll start in AAA.  

[Stradling]

Just now, Dochalo said:

he was on the depth chart and started at AAA.  In all likelihood, they probably thought he'd get some starts at the major league level just like they've already said they anticipate Canning and Suarez contributing to the major league club in 2019 even though they'll start in AAA.  

So you’re saying Canning is projected to be in the bigs this year?  Hmm.  Are you hearing this from experts?  

[floplag]

31 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This organization under Eppler has let players abilities decide when they are in the majors.   If Canning is ready, and he very well could be ready, then he will Be pitching in the bigs.  

Obviously the players dictate this in ANY org, the point is that it is at bet optimistic to expect them to break spring training in the bigs.  The most optimistic projection ive read suggested second half of the year.    

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

why does that matter?  

are you working under the assumption that the off season is over and that we won't add any starters?  If so, then there is no point in discussing this.  

the other two guys who Shoe is most redundant with (Pena and Trop) both have options and a total cost of 2m.  It's most likely that neither will be on the opening day mlb roster.  

they had to make a decision on whether to offer him arb.  If they do, it's pretty much guaranteed that they're paying someone who at best is anywhere from 6th to 8th on the depth chart 4 mil when they've got that covered paying 2m.  If we kept him and add two starters, we'd have to put him in the pen because he has no options.  The angels determined there were better ways to spend 4m than do that.  

So they'll call up Pena or Trop if they need someone else to start.  

Right now, our AAA rotation is probably Cannings, Suarez, Trop, Pena and Peters with additional depth of Luis Pena, Forrest Snow, Luke Farrell and so on so forth.  

It matters as we have to play a competitive first half for it to matter do we not?  
No, the off season isnt over, never said it was, but so far the job is very incomplete. 
All along the consensus has been adding at least 2 more pitchers to get to that point, to date that has not been done

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

we had 7 starters better than him last year.  it shouldn't be too difficult a task. 

Take the damn injury away and name them!

And dont be enslaved to quantitative analysis.   There are factors that explain why numbers aren't always an accurate assessment.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

why replace him?  

I think what he Angels are essentially telling us is that they already have.  His impact on the rotation is likely to be similar to that of Trop, Pena, Canning or Suarez. At least that is what they are saying with their actions.  All four of those guys are cheap.  Why spend $4 mil to add a 5th guy to that mix?  

If they truly though of him as a rotation candidate and 4th/5th starter then $4 mil would have been cheap for that.  

Clearly, we need rotation help and my guess is that we'll get some.  

If you held billy down and asked him who is replacing Matt Shoemaker, he would cite someone like Dillon Peters who is on the depth chart behind the four guys mentioned above after we acquired him via trade when he was DFA'd from Miami in Nov.  Don't get me wrong, Shoe seems like a great guy.  He's easy to root for and I still want him to do well.  I really do wish his value was greater, but it's not even though we want it to be.  

BTW, Peters, who is entering his age 26 season has the following scouting report from Sickels prior to the 2017 season:

7) Dillon Peters, LHP, Grade C+: Age 24, 10^th round pick from University of Texas in 2014; posted 2.38 ERA with 105/20 K/BB in 129 innings between High-A and Double-A; undersized even for a lefty at 5-9 but there’s some zip in the arm with 92-94 MPH fastball and a solid curve; also has a decent change-up and throws strikes with everything; quite polished with good mound presence and make-up; potential number four starter. ETA 2018.

while the build and the fact that he's a lefty aren't the same, his projection, make-up, mound presence and velocity sound pretty familiar.  

I dont have a problem if they are planning on going with Canning or Suarez.  I have no idea who Peters is.  I do know the last three years we have been crushed by lack of pitching depth.  

Like I have been saying (and you guys have been ignoring)  I didnt have a problem with letting Shoe go.  It's not replacing him. And if we had guys in the minors better than him than why did we have McGuire, Lamb, Despaigne, start games for us last year?

[Lou]

36 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Take the damn injury away and name them!

And dont be enslaved to quantitative analysis.   There are factors that explain why numbers aren't always an accurate assessment.

ok, but only if you agree not to be enslaved by make-believe, head in the clouds scenarios where he was healthy and productive for the last two years. 

FACT: over the last 2 seasons:

21 GS

108.1 IP

4.64 ERA 

 

$4 million?  PASS 

[Lou]

48 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I didnt have a problem with letting Shoe go. It's not replacing him

its Dec 15th, FFS 

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

its Dec 15th, FFS 

Yeah, but that means it's almost Dec 16th!

[Lou]

26 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yeah, but that means it's almost Dec 16th!

Beethoven's birthday!

Also, actor Ben Cross will be celebrating his 70th birthday. You may remember him as:

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Right now, our AAA rotation is probably Cannings, Suarez, Trop, Pena and Peters with additional depth of Luis Pena, Forrest Snow, Luke Farrell and so on so forth.  

That's a nice AAA rotation to have. Sandoval will be in the mix at some point, too. 

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

So you’re saying Canning is projected to be in the bigs this year?  Hmm.  Are you hearing this from experts?  

Do you think he won't reach the bigs this year? I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least a few starts, very possibly 10+.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's a nice AAA rotation to have. Sandoval will be in the mix at some point, too. 

Do you think he won't reach the bigs this year? I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least a few starts, very possibly 10+.

I expect him in the majors this year.   My comment was tongue and cheek.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I expect him in the majors this year.   My comment was tongue and cheek.

We need a "that was over my head" like option. I guess Keanu is closest.

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

So you’re saying Canning is projected to be in the bigs this year?  Hmm.  Are you hearing this from experts?  

Billy Eppler has said he expects Canning to pitch in the majors in 2019.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Billy Eppler has said he expects Canning to pitch in the majors in 2019.

RIP that narrative.

[Lou]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

are you working under the assumption that the off season is over and that we won't add any starters?

For those who keep harping on this, i.e. we haven't done anything, here's some food for thought:

Based on projections, Shoemaker would be our highest paid starter if we had kept him