Just gonna leave this here....

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

The only trade target that makes sense are young arbitration eligible or club control players like JT Realmuto, or guys who won't be expensive like Sonny Gray or Salvador Perez or Francisco Cervelli.

 

disagree on Realmuto.  he's gonna cost Adell and Canning and he's got two years of control.  We likely can't afford to extend him, Trout and Simmons and Realmuto's extension would include age 30 and beyond.  I also think that with our other holes, he doesn't move the needle enough.  It's the exact opposite of the moves I'd like to see them make.  

Gray, Perez or Cervelli could be interesting based on what we'd have to give up.  Not a fan of Perez personally.  Have always felt him to be overrated.  I'd rather just sign Ramos to a 2 year deal if that's available.  Otherwise, I'm taking my chances with someone like McCann to platoon with Smith.  

Maybe it's that I have a lot of confidence in Eppler's ability to build a farm system.  If we didn't move from the worst farm in baseball to now having a solid farm in just three years, maybe I would think differently.  ie, if the process were moving more slowly then maybe my outlook on whether to improve the current team more now would change.  

Outside of a couple relievers, Jaime Barria, David Fletcher, and Taylor Ward were truly the first farm hands we've had contribute at the major league level and show actual promise for the future since CJ Cron in 2014.  Which was 5 seasons ago and he ended up being pretty meh.  Before that, it was Trout and Richards in 2011.  That's 3 prospects who became legit major leaguers in the last 8 seasons.  So I can see why people have PTSD as it relates to the farm system.  

Before that we had years of winning fueled by a largely home grown roster.  That's where we need to be again in order to produce a sustainable winner.  When we got away from that, we started failing.  

 

[ettin]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

he's gonna cost Adell and Canning and he's got two years of control.

Adell yes, probably, but not both, he is not that valuable. Adell and probably someone in the #3-#8 range give or take and maybe a throw-in from the #25-#50 range.

No way he commands a #1 and #2 prospect in my opinion from any farm system.

I do agree that it is very unlikely we will acquire him, he simply will draw too much from our farm system if the Marlins are smart.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, ettin said:

Adell yes, probably, but not both, he is not that valuable. Adell and probably someone in the #3-#8 range give or take and maybe a throw-in from the #25-#50 range.

No way he commands a #1 and #2 prospect in my opinion from any farm system.

I do agree that it is very unlikely we will acquire him, he simply will draw too much from our farm system if the Marlins are smart.

we'll see.  Regardless, Realmuto doesn't make up for our other deficiencies enough to justify that cost.  

[floplag]

19 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

we'll see.  Regardless, Realmuto doesn't make up for our other deficiencies enough to justify that cost.  

While true, the thing about that is that no one player does, it has to be a package of either trades and signings to make up for it.
What if that trade happened AFTER signing Grandal and 2 good arms, would you still make the same argument in either scenario with or without Adell?

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

While true, the thing about that is that no one player does, it has to be a package of either trades and signings to make up for it.
What if that trade happened AFTER signing Grandal and 2 good arms, would you still make the same argument in either scenario with or without Adell?

then we'd have two catchers.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

then we'd have two catchers.  

... ok ok i meant to say Moustakis, my bad.  or heck insert any other impact offensive player in his place as the final part of the puzzle 

[Hubs]

I am thinking that I'd like to see more of Taylor Ward next year. Fletcher also can play 3rd, and Renfigo is also in the mix at least at 2nd, so Cozart moves back to 3rd.

The reason I bring this up, is while I have always been a fan of a Moustakas, I think the potential of a guys like Ward and Fletcher to have .350+ OBP's in the majors outweighs the power potential in Moustakas lefty bat. Ward's BABIP in 2018 was .214, that's way below the league average. He also had a good last 4 games with 3 HR.

I say sign Ramos (2/15, 6M in 2019, 9 M in 2020) and M. Gonzalez (4/36, 6M in 2019, 8M in 2020, 11M in 2021 and 2022), Sign a starter like Happ or Miley or Gonzalez (8-12M AAV) and Trade for Gray (1/9). Try to unload Calhoun if you can, but if you can't move or non-tender Tropeano and try to get Shoemaker for a little less by giving him a 2 year contract with incentives.

Offseason complete.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

While true, the thing about that is that no one player does, it has to be a package of either trades and signings to make up for it.
What if that trade happened AFTER signing Grandal and 2 good arms, would you still make the same argument in either scenario with or without Adell?

Seriously though.  I get what you're saying but I just think that the combo of trades and signings it would take to get us even close would decimate our farm system.  

It's not just about Adell.  It's about the long term impact of moving a bunch of guys at the top of our farm for short term gain when I personally feel that we've yet to realize any of their potential.  Could I stomach it if it were Marsh, Suarez and a couple of throw ins?  you bet.  I just don't think there's any way in hell of that happening.  I think they'll be a decent bidding war for him due to positional scarcity and someone will give up a couple of top 50 prospects plus a couple of others.  

I'm also operating under the assumption that we have 30m to spend regardless of whether that's via trade or free agent.  So if we trade for Realmuto and his 6m salary, we've got 24 mil to add two good arms and Donaldson.  In order for that to happen we'd probably have to find a way to off load Cozart or at least Calhoun.  If it's the latter then we've got a big hole in RF that would likely be fill with a platoon.  

There's this rare cascade of events that would need to occur in order to make this feasible and actually worth it:

step 1 - get someone to take on Cozart's salary
step 2 - now you've got 43m in salary to work with but you have to save 6m for Realmuto.   Sign Happ, Donaldson and maybe someone like Buchholz for at total of 37m in payroll for 2019 keeping in mind the impact of payroll for 2021 when Trout and Simmons need extensions.  So you need to likely sign them for two years each.  
step 3 - trade for Realmuto at a reasonable cost that doesn't have a huge negative impact on the farm.  I'd be ok with Marsh as the centerpiece, Suarez and a couple of lesser guys.  

and you've still got Albert at 1b, an ok but still thin rotation.  A rookie 2bman with maybe Rengifo or Jones set to take over so that's ok.  Kole in RF with Adell set to take the reigns.   And you've got a very you bullpen.   

That sure seems like a lot that would have to happen in our favor.   

[Docwaukee]

29 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I am thinking that I'd like to see more of Taylor Ward next year. Fletcher also can play 3rd, and Renfigo is also in the mix at least at 2nd, so Cozart moves back to 3rd.

The reason I bring this up, is while I have always been a fan of a Moustakas, I think the potential of a guys like Ward and Fletcher to have .350+ OBP's in the majors outweighs the power potential in Moustakas lefty bat. Ward's BABIP in 2018 was .214, that's way below the league average. He also had a good last 4 games with 3 HR.

I say sign Ramos (2/15, 6M in 2019, 9 M in 2020) and M. Gonzalez (4/36, 6M in 2019, 8M in 2020, 11M in 2021 and 2022), Sign a starter like Happ or Miley or Gonzalez (8-12M AAV) and Trade for Gray (1/9). Try to unload Calhoun if you can, but if you can't move or non-tender Tropeano and try to get Shoemaker for a little less by giving him a 2 year contract with incentives.

Offseason complete.

i could definitely live with that off season.  Although I think you're a little low on the AAV for each of those FA signings.  

[T.G.]

You know it's been a while since the Angels won an off season.

[Pancake Bear]

I wouldn’t expect a trade of Cozart. Highly doubtful that Eppler has given up on him. I could be wrong. 

[WeaverFever]

17 minutes ago, True Grich said:

You know it's been a while since the Angels won an off season.

Didn’t we “win it” last year? LOL. 

[Hubs]

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

i could definitely live with that off season.  Although I think you're a little low on the AAV for each of those FA signings.  

I think I'm low on Marwin Gonzalez, but I think the 13M plus over 4 years is a bit high, which is what I've seen. Cozart has an excellent defensive reputation, and a 12.67 AAV, coming off a .900 OPS year. Zobrist is the comp apparently, but guys Luis Valbuena and others who hit closer to Gonzalez get deals around 8-9M AAV.

I'd say 11-for Gio, Happ, and Miley is around correct.

Ramos is probably close.

I tried to keep it around 30, ended up at 29-33 for 2018, 25 in 2020 (no Gray).

But if they had to spend 40 to get this team, or even 45 and ended up with Corbin/Keuchel and Gio, plus Gonzalez and Ramos, I'd be okay with that too.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think I'm low on Marwin Gonzalez, but I think the 13M plus over 4 years is a bit high, which is what I've seen. Cozart has an excellent defensive reputation, and a 12.67 AAV, coming off a .900 OPS year. Zobrist is the comp apparently, but guys Luis Valbuena and others who hit closer to Gonzalez get deals around 8-9M AAV.

I'd say 11-for Gio, Happ, and Miley is around correct.

Ramos is probably close.

I tried to keep it around 30, ended up at 29-33 for 2018, 25 in 2020 (no Gray).

But if they had to spend 40 to get this team, or even 45 and ended up with Corbin/Keuchel and Gio, plus Gonzalez and Ramos, I'd be okay with that too.

I think we all would.  just not gonna happen unless we can off load Cozart or Calhoun.  

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think we all would.  just not gonna happen unless we can off load Cozart or Calhoun.  

While it would be nice, I dont see that happening though personally. 
Who would deal for Cozart before he shows healthy?  To me thats a spring training trade if Fletcher beats him out, assuming both going for same job. 
Calhoun is over-payed for production, meaning the only way someone takes him is to offload a contract they dont want, like maybe Santana in Phi.  I dont really see much if any savings there not to mention who actually plays RF.

[beatlesrule]

The Phillies owner must not have a Yacht that needs fuel.

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

The Phillies owner must not have a Yacht that needs fuel.

The Phillies owner has about the same TV contract as the Angels and his payroll commitment right now is $58 million.  So yea.  

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The Phillies owner has about the same TV contract as the Angels and his payroll commitment right now is $58 million.  So yea.  

My bad, the Phillies TV deal is $5 billion for 25 years or $200 million a season, which is $50 million more than the Angels.  

[Hubs]

I think Arte may push it slightly higher say 35-40 to spend, and with some creative accounting and non-tendering guys like JC Ramirez and Tropeano, maybe that's enough. The arbitration numbers aren't set in stone until ST I don't think.

[Docwaukee]

34 minutes ago, floplag said:

While it would be nice, I dont see that happening though personally. 
Who would deal for Cozart before he shows healthy?  To me thats a spring training trade if Fletcher beats him out, assuming both going for same job. 
Calhoun is over-payed for production, meaning the only way someone takes him is to offload a contract they dont want, like maybe Santana in Phi.  I dont really see much if any savings there not to mention who actually plays RF.

I agree it's not likely.  They'd have to get real lucky and we'd need to find someone who is desperate for a SS.  There are too many other options out there right now where they don't need to settle for Cozart.  I never hope for an injury to a player, but that's essentially what it would take.  Right now, teams have Macahdo, Segura, Lowrie, Iglesias and maybe Andrus available.  

 

[floplag]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I agree it's not likely.  They'd have to get real lucky and we'd need to find someone who is desperate for a SS.  There are too many other options out there right now where they don't need to settle for Cozart.  I never hope for an injury to a player, but that's essentially what it would take.  Right now, teams have Macahdo, Segura, Lowrie, Iglesias and maybe Andrus available.  

 

So effectively were back to the budget being the roadblock.

[greginpsca]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I agree it's not likely.  They'd have to get real lucky and we'd need to find someone who is desperate for a SS.  There are too many other options out there right now where they don't need to settle for Cozart.  I never hope for an injury to a player, but that's essentially what it would take.  Right now, teams have Macahdo, Segura, Lowrie, Iglesias and maybe Andrus available.  

 

Andrus did not opt out.

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think Arte may push it slightly higher say 35-40 to spend, and with some creative accounting and non-tendering guys like JC Ramirez and Tropeano, maybe that's enough. The arbitration numbers aren't set in stone until ST I don't think.

from what I've seen of Arte, I kinda doubt it.  He tends to stick to his bottom line number pretty hard and fast.  Yes, if we can trade Parker and non tender a couple guys or somehow Eppler can work some magic with Calhoun but what is added minus what is subtracted will be 30m.  

[Docwaukee]

Just now, greginpsca said:

Andrus did not opt out.

in trade potentially.  

[beatlesrule]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My bad, the Phillies TV deal is $5 billion for 25 years or $200 million a season, which is $50 million more than the Angels.  

And??  Arte has plenty of money and can greatly improve the team by spending 60 million and he would still be below the tax.  Reports are he wants to spend 50% less than that.  Pretty sad.