The case for Marte over Escobar

[Docwaukee]

So, having Escboar's .355 obp at the top of the order was certainly helpful to the offense and while his .304 avg is 'sexy', his other deficiencies are certainly noticeable and even potentially outweigh the positives.  While there is an argument that he's worth more that his statistical value would suggest, even with that, Marte's value and potential are enough to consider making the change. 

Aside from the obvious issues with Escobar's defense (-11 DRS is 7th worst in baseball), he's also a terrible base runner (8th worst in baseball among qualified), has essentially zero power (3rd worst ISO in baseball), and he grounds into a ton of double plays (21 - 8th most).  He's truly about as one dimensional as they come and at age 34, that batting average isn't going to last forever.  

Marte on the other hand is entering his age 26yo season even though he'll be 25 through june 21st.  In limited sample at 3b (160 innings), he was average defensively.  He accumulated 1.5 WAR in 284 pa to Escobars 1.6 WAR in 567 pa and that's with his negative defensive value playing out of position in LF more than he played 3b.  

While the batting average and obp (.252/.310) weren't exactly something to write home about, it was his first real experience in the major after getting less than 100 ab with detroit in 2015.  His obp in the upper minors was .345 at AAA with a 9% walk rate at both AA and AAA.  His base is also suspect, but he's got excellent power and he really excelled in the 2nd half of last year with a slash of .275/.335/.536/.871 in 158 pa.  His bb/k rate was 7.1%/18.2% after the break.  He also hit righties and lefties equally as well.  

We are talking about a guy that could have an .800 ops and play average defense at 3b.  Putting him in the range of being a 3 WAR player.  

I know it is unlikely that he's handed the everyday job, but I think he could easily reproduce the 1.5 WAR Escboar is likely to put up.  You could trade Escobar for an up and coming relief prospect and sign Felz giving you two additional pen options for 2017 and beyond while being payroll neutral and in my opinion, you'd get better production from 3b.  

[tdawg87]

I'd be fine with it, but there's absolutely zero chance this is even considered. 

Hopefully Marte continues to hit well and forces his way into the lineup full time.

[Brent Maguire]

4 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'd be fine with it, but there's absolutely zero chance this is even considered. 

Hopefully Marte continues to hit well and forces his way into the lineup full time.

Yup.

If Escobar had meaningful trade value, I'm sure the guy would've been sent packing a while ago. Maybe the rest of the league really thinks his AVG is about to decline, which will negate pretty much all his value. The scenario Doc highlighted would be perfect, as you don't get any worse, free up payroll and get a useful prospect in return. 

[ettin]

This is without a doubt a real possibility Doc. I think the Angels will simply prefer Marte's position on the depth chart this season rather than thinning it out by trading Escobar but I agree that Marte can probably match the total production, offense and defense, that Yunel brings. You also have to consider lineup position here too but I suppose they could put Maybin at leadoff if they really wanted too.

[arch stanton]

I'm all for Marte being the primary 3B.

I've even mentioned before that I could see one of the AL East teams being interested in Marte once the market shakes out. He'd be a ton cheaper than Bautista, Encarnacion, or even Trumbo and in that environment would be a safe bet to produce at a level not too far below them.

[UndertheHalo]

i'm hopeful that Marte builds on what he was able to do last season but I think the jury is still definitely out on this guy.  He didn't exactly light up the minors when he was coming up.  If the Angels brass aren't ready to pencil him in as a regular yet, I don't blame them.  We may say that Escobar is one dimensional, but hey.  .355 obp is a .355 obp.  The Angels haven't had a lot of that outside of Mike Trout in the last decade.  Its a pretty important single tool. 

[Stradling]

So, why don't we think it won't be considered? Scioscia has always been a defense first kind of manager.  Unless the thought is we have no other third baseman on the roster to replace Marte's production if we traded Yunel I could see it happening.  Hell you could keep Cowart, use Marte as your everyday third baseman and trade Yunel for the best 4th outfielder you can find.  Then spend his $7 million on the bullpen.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

i'm hopeful that Marte builds on what he was able to do last season but I think the jury is still definitely out on this guy.  He didn't exactly light up the minors when he was coming up.  If the Angels brass aren't ready to pencil him in as a regular yet, I don't blame them.  We may say that Escobar is one dimensional, but hey.  .355 obp is a .355 obp.  The Angels haven't had a lot of that outside of Mike Trout in the last decade.  Its a pretty important single tool. 

While I agree with this you can't pinch run for him every time and he's quite possibly the worst base runner I've ever seen and I've seen Hunter, Vlad, Aybar and Albert.  

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, Stradling said:

While I agree with this you can't pinch run for him every time and he's quite possibly the worst base runner I've ever seen and I've seen Hunter, Vlad, Aybar and Albert.  

fair.

[tdawg87]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So, why don't we think it won't be considered? Scioscia has always been a defense first kind of manager.  Unless the thought is we have no other third baseman on the roster to replace Marte's production if we traded Yunel I could see it happening.  Hell you could keep Cowart, use Marte as your everyday third baseman and trade Yunel for the best 4th outfielder you can find.  Then spend his $7 million on the bullpen.  

Escobar doesn't really have a ton of trade value. I could maybe see him getting traded mid-season if he's hitting but other than that I don't see it happening during the offseason.

[tdawg87]

He's also a veteran.

[wopphil]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Escobar doesn't really have a ton of trade value. I could maybe see him getting traded mid-season if he's hitting but other than that I don't see it happening during the offseason.

I agree. I'd be surprised if any team were willing to take on his full salary.

[Troll Daddy]

I love Marte's much needed power at the plate. He had a breakout season at the plate ... no rush IMO. 

I love Escobar's ability to lead off for the team. Most are under rating the importance of his role in the lineup.

Defensively I'll stick with Escobar for now. 

Marte future third baseman ... the possibility is there. 

[totdprods]

I see no reason to just dump Escobar, and I don't think it's as easy as 'move him for the best reliever/4th OF/prospect you can get' because I don't think anyone is offering even that much.

There is also zero market for 3B recently, and that's about all Yunel is able/willing to play. No teams needed a 3B last midseason, and no one has really needed one this offseason - Turner only had one serious suitor, Valbuena is still a FA, etc.

How many teams could use Yunel Escobar at third? I struggle to think of any who don't already have someone or have a more interesting piece to play there.

[nikkachez]

I think they'll hold onto Escobar (could become a trade chip at the deadline), but I'm actually hoping for Moustakas next year. Ruptured his Achilles this past season, but he was finally putting it together heading into 2016. Had a 3.6 fWAR in 2015, makes a lot of contact, great defender at third, left-handed bat to throw into the mix, he'll be entering his age-29 season in 2018. I could see them extending Espinosa too, just as a stopgap second baseman. 

 

Moustakas, Simmons, Espinosa, and Perez/Bandy in the infield with Calhoun and Trout patrolling the outfield? Drool* 

[totdprods]

Escobar would be a great pick-up for a contending team in the middle of the season if their starting 3B gets hurt for several weeks. He won't cost much in salary or players to sacrifice, and he has (for now) at least one plus skill for acquiring team to rely on. Eppler can probably get more for Escobar in that situation than he can right now, and Marte, Espinosa, etc. give us enough depth to pull the trigger at any point. 

All we need is for Maybin or Simmons to show enough to replace him as a lead-off hitter if that happens. Also important to not mess up our lineup dynamic if we're in it.

[Troll Daddy]

8 hours ago, Angels_Baseball said:

Yup.

If Escobar had meaningful trade value, I'm sure the guy would've been sent packing a while ago. Maybe the rest of the league really thinks his AVG is about to decline, which will negate pretty much all his value. The scenario Doc highlighted would be perfect, as you don't get any worse, free up payroll and get a useful prospect in return. 

Why would he have been sent packing? The Angels picked up his option for a reason. 

[Oz27]

Good post and I back the sentiment. People have grown to love OBP and I obviously preach the importance of it pretty regularly. But in the case of Escobar, I think people are weighting OBP too much and as a result overrating him as a player. He doesn't hit for power, is a bad baserunner and an awful defender - and that package makes him a below average regular. His BABIP still raises questions for me too. How does a guy who doesn't hit the ball hard, doesn't run fast and hits a ton of ground balls end up with a .340ish BABIP? That was the red flag for me going into 2016 but the fact he has now done it two years in a row now does imply it wasn't luck. However, it's still weird to me and still a pretty big red flag.

Back to the point, though. Marte and Escobar provided essentially the same value last year even though Marte got half the playing time. He was at 1.5 fWAR, Escobar was at 1.6. Defensive metrics loved Marte at 3B and by wRC+ Marte is a better hitter than Escobar too. So the only reason to play Escobar over Marte is if you don't believe Marte's offensive breakout is sustainable. I understand that as a concern and the projection systems don't buy him yet, but I do.

Of course, one problem would be what the hell to do with Escobar if we decided Marte was the starting 3B. I've come to the view that, if Escobar had any trade value, he would have been dealt in July. We've heard numerous things from reporters that there was really no interest in him. Would another team take on that money, let alone give us something in return, for Escobar? I'm not sure about that.
 

[Troll Daddy]

What if Marte's hitting isn't sustainable like Oz said ... then what? His weaknesses at the plate will be scouted. 

In theory it sounds good but in reality it's a gamble the team doesn't need to take. 

[Stradling]

Then defensively he'd provide almost what Escobar does offensively.  Escobar is literally a 1.5 Win player.  Marte can get you at least 1 Win performance with his glove.  

[Stradling]

Somehow we got rid of David Freese and still got worse defensively at 3rd.  That's very hard to do. 

[Chuck]

Good post, @Dochalo. I totally agree.

If there is a significant injury to a team's 3B or even SS in the offseason/ST and Marte kills the ball like he did last spring, I can see this happening. 

[totdprods]

Marte is also very valuable as depth right now as well. Good teams have good depth. If Escobar is dealt and Marte slides up one slot, then everyone below Marte slides up a peg - Pennington, Cowart, Fontana, etc., 

Replacing Escobar with Marte may be a good-sized bump, but replacing Marte with AAAA filler is a much bigger drop off that negates a lot of that.

Sure, we may not need that depth and it may be moot, but after last year, better safe than sorry. If Cron breaks a finger or Escobar pulls a hammy, Marte is there. If Escobar has been dumped, then we are back to Choi, Cliff, and Cowart getting ABs.

[Oz27]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Then defensively he'd provide almost what Escobar does offensively.  Escobar is literally a 1.5 Win player.  Marte can get you at least 1 Win performance with his glove.  

I wouldn't quite go that far. But one guy who could give you that is Cowart. There were three third basemen last year whose defensive WAR was 2 or higher and a fourth (Beltre) at 1.8. It is an extremely small sample, so we can't take it as gospel, but Cowart's play at third last year projected to be worth 20 runs over a full season - or two wins. It was similar in 2015 too (22 runs). Normally I wouldn't bother with such small samples, but that backs up what both the eye test and the scouting reports say about Cowart. He is a really freaking good defensive third baseman and I don't think people value that enough. So, worth two wins on defense and a little bit more with his baserunning, he can be a pretty terrible hitter yet still have value. He would need to hit better than he did last year, obviously, but that was in a small sample of sporadic playing time and he had put up pretty solid AAA numbers. He is a better fallback option than people give him credit for.

[totdprods]

Marte is also very valuable as depth right now as well. Good teams have good depth. If Escobar is dealt and Marte slides up one slot, then everyone below Marte slides up a peg - Pennington, Cowart, Fontana, etc., 

Replacing Escobar with Marte may be a good-sized bump, but replacing Marte with AAAA filler is a much bigger drop off that negates a lot of that.

Sure, we may not need that depth and it may be moot, but after last year, better safe than sorry. If Cron breaks a finger or Escobar pulls a hammy, Marte is there. If Escobar has been dumped, then we are back to Choi, Cliff, and Cowart getting ABs.

Now if we can get another good AAA IF or vet IF with some pop on the bench I will be much more open to it.