BULLPEN

[Hubs]

LF and 2B are the two positions everyone knows we need help at as well as the rotation.

While everyone seems to realize we needed help in the lineup and in the rotation last year, I will also point out that the bullpen was pretty bad as well. 

I hope Street returns to form, but I don't think the Angels can go swimming in the free agent closer pool, so if not Street, hopefully Bailey or Bedrosian can fill in there.

After Street, we went usually to Joe Smith for the 8th, but he too had a subpar year before he was traded. I can see us looking at 8th inning guys. Or maybe Bedrosian and Bailey fill that role. Next for the 7th, we have Mike Morin and Jose Alvarez. Fernando Salas is unlikely to be retained, and I'm glad. Cody Ege, JC Ramirez, and Delois Guerra all are decent options there.

I also think the addition by subtraction of some of the low quality guys, plus a reduction of use of the pen (Our pen pitched 120 more innings than in 2015, and almost the same as n 2014, when down the stretch, they had several bullpen games) and adding one premier reliever is going to make the rest of the staff look great. 

We need our rotation to give us 1000 innings, so the pen goes only 450ish. 

Our top 7 relievers should give us at least 50 IP each. Morin, Guerra, and JC Ramirez (unless he wins a rotation spot) are all good for 50 IP.

Street = 60 IP. Hopefully an ERA around 3.3. He was pitching hurt most of last year. Having him follow flamethrowers like Bedrosian works nicely.

Alvarez = 60 IP. His ERA the last two seasons was right around 3.5.

Bedrosian = 60 IP. He hasn't been able to do this workload, but hopefully can give us 60 IP at 2.00 ERA. 

Bailey = 50 IP. Hopefully can do this workload at an ERA of around 2.5.

Morin = 50 IP at 4.00 ERA

Guerra = 50 IP at 3.50 ERA.

JC Ramirez = 50 IP at 3.50 ERA.

And the rest of the relievers (Meyer, Ege, Chavez, Parker, Yates, Achter, De Los Santos, Campos, Middleton) should then only have to give us 60-80 IP at a 4.50 ERA.

That would result in 460 IP and an ERA of 3.44 from the pen. If we get an ERA of say 3.75 from the starting 5, with Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs giving us ERA's in the low 3's and Nolasco and Chavez giving us era's in the high 3's or low 4's, plus Meyer and which ever other starter is our 6/7/8 starter, giving us 4.5 ERA's instead of close to 6 as we got from those types last year. They'd end up giving up 630-650 runs, and that would be a huge plus.

 

 

 

[Angelsfan1984]

getting 5 starters or any combination of to give you 200 ip each is quite ambitious.

[totdprods]

You do know Salas was traded to the Mets in August, right?  Achter is also gone. 

Otherwise, good write-up. I think the pen was particularly bad last season because they were extremely overworked. If we can get our top 4 starters to log at least 20 GS each, I think we will already be in much better shape. I think Street will be better - not necessarily great, but serviceable, and I think Meyer will wind up in the bullpen at some point. 

I'd be surprised if we didn't sign at least one more reliever. Personally, I still think they should be dark-horsin' Kenley Jansen. But short of that, we could use that same amount of money to sign a vet LHP and RHP reliever. Boone Logan would be fantastic, but Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski, Travis Wood, JP Howell, Charlie Furbush - any of them would be worth getting in my opinion. From the right side, there are even more suitable options. Brad Ziegler, Aaron Barrett, Koji Uehara, Shawn Tolleson, Junichi Tazawa, Drew Storen, Sergio Romo, Greg Holland, Bryan Morris, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter, Daniel Hudson, Luke Hochevar, Yusmeiro Petit - any of those would be a good addition as well. We're that lacking in arms.

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

The good selling point for Jansen is not changing where he lives, no adjustment needed there.   But one has to figure that the Dogs will go hard to re-sign him.  At least one solid upgrade is needed in the pen, the Halos cannot only go with who they had in 2016.

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

getting 5 starters or any combination of to give you 200 ip each is quite ambitious.

I'd be happy if Shoemaker, Skaggs, Nolasco, and Richards gave us 20+ starts each. That'd be a massive step up over last year. 

Our 'good' starters (Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Nolasco, Meyer) gave us 59 starts last year (Chavez didn't start any)
Heaney and Tropeano gave us 14 starts. Combined, our 'good' rotation (eight SPs) didn't even combine to make it through half a season. 

We relied on Weaver, Santiago (who I deem 'bad' due to his 5.04 FIP and 1.33 WHIP), Chacin (5.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP as a starter), Tim Lincecum, Daniel Wright, Brett Oberholtzer, David Huff, and Cory Rasmus for a whopping 89 starts. 89 starts from guys who won't be on the mound for us next season (more than likely) and simply by them no longer being options helps us. 

Goes to show how badly the injuries really affected us last year. If Richards, Heaney, and Skaggs had simply made it through the year we would have been dramatically better off, even if they had just been average.

[Hubs]

As for Jansen, no way this front office spends $80 M on a closer. It's just not going to happen.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

As for Jansen, no way this front office spends $80 M on a closer. It's just not going to happen.

I never expected us to deal our #1 prospect for a shortstop or sign Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton either...
In no way am I expecting it, but I never know with the Halos. Jansen would solidify the pen in a tremendous way and give us a long-term anchor in the pen. We don't have any anchor in the pen right now. Bedrosian may be it, but it's only been one season, and if he winds up being another mainstay, all the better. We have promising rotation depth and a strong, young, offensive core. 

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I never expected us to deal our #1 prospect for a shortstop or sign Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton either...
In no way am I expecting it, but I never know with the Halos. Jansen would solidify the pen in a tremendous way and give us a long-term anchor in the pen. We don't have any anchor in the pen right now. Bedrosian may be it, but it's only been one season, and if he winds up being another mainstay, all the better. We have promising rotation depth and a strong, young, offensive core. 

Resources better used elsewhere. I can see us adding a 2B and a C via FA and even another starter before signing a new closer. 

[totdprods]

Just now, Hubs said:

Resources better used elsewhere. I can see us adding a 2B and a C via FA and even another starter before signing a new closer. 

I can too. It's just another avenue. Several different routes they can still take this offseason.

[Angel Oracle]

Jansen also doesn't have a lot of wear and tear, only starting to pitch after the Dogs drafted him, and will still only be 29 through pretty much the entire 2017 season.    It was pretty much the same career path that Percy took in the Halos org, other than Jansen being drafted out of HS, and Percy pitched until he was close to 40. 

He's been pretty automatic for most of the past 5 seasons, 4 of them with a sub 1.00 WHIP.   And the Ks/9 innings is stupid good.

He could be the Halos answer to Chapman, Miller, et al. 

[Docwaukee]

nice write up.  I am much less optimistic however.  Our most dominant arm is coming off arm surgery.  No one else really misses bats.  We actually out performed our peripherals and the results still weren't very good.  

It's gonna be another work in progress with tryouts through may.  A healthy AND effective Street would be huge but even if the former occurs, I am not so sure about the latter.  

Chacin actually showed some promise if we can bring him back.  

I have more confidence that Kenley Jansen would provide value commensurate with his contract more than I do any other free agent available including starters and position players.  But I give about a 3% chance of us signing him.  As it stands, I see a pen that mirrors what we've been used to 6 1/2 of the last 7 years.  Maybe we get some guys from the farm to contribute like Wood, Middleton, Paredes, or Adams.  

this is the year of the rabbit's foot.  

[TroutField]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

nice write up.  I am much less optimistic however.  Our most dominant arm is coming off arm surgery.  No one else really misses bats.  We actually out performed our peripherals and the results still weren't very good.  

It's gonna be another work in progress with tryouts through may.  A healthy AND effective Street would be huge but even if the former occurs, I am not so sure about the latter.  

Chacin actually showed some promise if we can bring him back.  

I have more confidence that Kenley Jansen would provide value commensurate with his contract more than I do any other free agent available including starters and position players.  But I give about a 3% chance of us signing him.  As it stands, I see a pen that mirrors what we've been used to 6 1/2 of the last 7 years.  Maybe we get some guys from the farm to contribute like Wood, Middleton, Paredes, or Adams.  

this is the year of the rabbit's foot.  

Maybe the baseball gods will smile on us for once so that everyone can shut the hell up about trading Trout. 

[totdprods]

32 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Jansen also doesn't have a lot of wear and tear, only starting to pitch after the Dogs drafted him, and will still only be 29 through pretty much the entire 2017 season.    It was pretty much the same career path that Percy took in the Halos org, other than Jansen being drafted out of HS, and Percy pitched until he was close to 40. 

He's been pretty automatic for most of the past 5 seasons, 4 of them with a sub 1.00 WHIP.   And the Ks/9 innings is stupid good.

He could be the Halos answer to Chapman, Miller, et al. 

What I like about Jansen is that it offers us a bankable presence in the bullpen during the Trout Years. Bullpens are so exceptionally difficult to build. There is no formula. There is no plan we can enact right now that will guarantee us having a good bullpen in a year, two years, three years, etc. It's a little easier to build a plan for the offense and the rotation, but building a bullpen seems to be an utter and total mystery to just about every major league team, and as we've seen, the price for an elite reliever is astronomical now. Signing Jansen now is a preventative measure. Signing Jansen right now gives us a solidifying presence we can build around. If Bedrosian goes Jepsen or Frieri on us, well hell, at least we'll have Jansen still to build around. If Jansen, Meyer, Bedrosian, and Middleton become the new Betances, Miller, and Chapman, all the better. We either keep them all and have a monstrous pen, or we have four relievers we can spin for pieces to facelift the team in '18-'19.

If all of our starters come full circle in '18 or '19 and the offense is holding steady, we should have a competitive team. We all feel fairly safe hoping for that. But we're placing all of our bullpen hopes currently on Cam Bedrosian, who a lot of us would have been fine DFA'ing at the start of the year. Sign a lock-down closer now so that way we don't have to do what Cleveland did this year and empty our just rebuilt farm at the '18 deadline for a closer. 

I'm not saying this is our ultimate path back to contention, but I think there's a stronger argument for it than many realize.

[Second Base]

There is so much freakin RP depth in free agency right now, it's ridiculous. In my opinion, if the Angels dump Alvarez, Ege and a coupe others, they can scoop up more worthwhile FA and improve the pen.

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

There is so much freakin RP depth in free agency right now, it's ridiculous. In my opinion, if the Angels dump Alvarez, Ege and a coupe others, they can scoop up more worthwhile FA and improve the pen.

Yes, there's at least four good lefties and another dozen righties I'd be interested in. We could literally sign three or four relievers and have an entire bullpen of hired guns.

[Second Base]

31 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yes, there's at least four good lefties and another dozen righties I'd be interested in. We could literally sign three or four relievers and have an entire bullpen of hired guns.

Yeah and there's nothing wrong with that, especially if you only have one RP prospect ready like Middleton. Plus we could sign 3-4 RP's to round out the pen and not spend more than 10 million.

And if you can build a good pen for 10 million, you take that bet everytime.

[ettin]

41 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

There is so much freakin RP depth in free agency right now, it's ridiculous. In my opinion, if the Angels dump Alvarez, Ege and a coupe others, they can scoop up more worthwhile FA and improve the pen.

 

36 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yes, there's at least four good lefties and another dozen righties I'd be interested in. We could literally sign three or four relievers and have an entire bullpen of hired guns.

Although I agree that there might be a couple of good lefties to add in free agency, Jose Alvarez had a good year in 2016 when you look at his peripherals and Ashur Tolliver is a really good candidate for the pen in my opinion. Ege is nothing more than a LOOGY and his service clock hasn't started yet so I suspect he will either be DFA'd today to make room for our Rule V additions or he will start the year in the Minors.

[Angel Oracle]

I like both signing Jansen and Scotty's idea.    This is a nice year for FA relief pitching, both elite and decent/solid variety. 

Alvarez' meh 2016 peripherals (1.50 WHIP) are not indicative though of his decent/solid ERA.   How much longer can he keep that up?

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I like both signing Jansen and Scotty's idea.    This is a nice year for FA relief pitching, both elite and decent/solid variety. 

Alvarez' meh peripherals are not indicative though of his decent/solid ERA the past 2 seasons.   How much longer can he keep that up?

Yeah I'd be fine signing two or three arms in lieu of Jansen as well. Alvarez would be alright as a lefty only but I won't cry about it if his time has come. Morin too.

[ukyah]

the angels have let guys that would have helped them quite a bit sign elsewhere, for very small contracts. so that's telling me we're in for another budget conscious offseason. personally, i don't approve. however, that's been discussed ad nauseam.

having said that, it's early still and the picture could change.

 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, ukyah said:

the angels have let guys that would have helped them quite a bit sign elsewhere, for very small contracts. so that's telling me we're in for another budget conscious offseason. personally, i don't approve. however, that's been discussed ad nauseam.

having said that, it's early still and the picture could change.

 

I think you can read it the other way too. We're spending $9m on LF instead of $3m like last year, and we spent $6m for a guy who is arguably replacing Chacin/Rasmus as the the 6th SP.  It's still very early, and they could be saving their bullets for Turner, Nova, Jansen, or multiple relievers.

[Hubs]

Bullpen is always a crap shoot. One or two good relievers would allow us to part ways with Morin in a trade, and there are always surprises ala Brendan Donnelly. 3-4 guys from the reliever free agent pile is not going to be a significant improvement over the guys we have. Sean Burnett and others were wastes of free agent money, while we have had success from some guys too. 

Alvarez is better than people think and he is one of our only lefties besides Ege and Mahle, neither of which have two years of solid success in the pen. He will be the new Salas. But I could see them adding an eighth inning guy. I have high hopes for JC Ramirez. 

Greg Holland would be a low cost gamble and Brett Cecil or Sergio Romo may come cheaply. Boone Logan may also be a good get. I can see us signing one of those types, maybe two, to round out what could be an excellent pen. 

Yet the biggest improvement is definitely to come on the pitching side. I hope that Chavez and Meyer combined give us 240 innings as the 5th and 6th starter. Add in 200 innings from Nolasco and Shoemaker, plus 170 from Skaggs and 200 Hopefully from Richards and this is a good rotation.